Agile in Context: Cynefin Framework,Three-circle model &the future of Agile

@danielwalsh
Agile in Context
the future of Agile
Daniel Walsh
August 2017 Orlando, FL
@danielwalsh

@danielwalsh
What is a Heuristic?
2 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.

@danielwalsh
Rule of thumb
le pif
(the nose)
目の測定
(measuring with
the eye)
Educated guess
SWAG
Order of
magnitude
First cut
Engineering
judgement
Guiding
principles
Faustregel
(the fist)
Ha пальцами
(by the fingers)
Quick and dirty
Guesstimate

@danielwalsh
A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a problem*
• reduces the search time for problem solving
• does not guarantee a solution to a problem
• can offer conflicting advice
• acceptance depends on the immediate context instead of an absolute standard
Example engineering heuristics:
• Solve problems by successive approximations (trial and error)
• Divide the problem into its constituent parts (divide and conquer)
• Do what worked last time (yesterday’s weather)
*Reference: Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003

@danielwalsh
heuristics produce accurate decisions by
exploiting the structures of information in the
environments in which they are applied*
*Reference: Gerd Gigerenzer - Environments That Make Us Smart

Everything in
engineering is heuristic
-Billy Vaughn Koen
Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003

Everything in Agile is heuristic
Two to four
week iterations
Individuals and
interactions over
processes and tools
Definition of
Done
Daily Standup
LeSS
SAFe
DAD
Nexus
Scrum at Scale
Responding to
change over
following a plan
Face-to-face
conversation is the
best form of
communication Best architectures,
requirements, and
designs emerge from
self-organizing teams
Velocity
tracking
User stories

*See Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003
Heuristics are dependent on immediate
context instead of absolute truth

@danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.10
The future of Agile is one where
practitioners understand not only how,
but also why Agile methods and
practices work across different contexts.

Cynefin Framework
kuh-nev-in
Three-Circle Model

@danielwalsh
The nature of the system
determines the way we can
know things, how we make
decisions, and how we act.
-David Snowden

@danielwalsh
The Obvious Domain
Direct Cause-Effect Relationship
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
sense-categorize-respond
Standards
Checklists
Best-Known Methods

@danielwalsh
The Complicated Domain
Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Rigid constraints
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
sense-analyze-respond
Communities of
Practice
Experts
Better-Known Methods

@danielwalsh
The Complex Domain
Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationship
15
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Rigid constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Loosely coupled
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
Pattern Recognition
Iterative Learning
Adaptive, Resilient
Methods
Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.

@danielwalsh
The Chaotic Domain
Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
Tightly coupled
Loosely coupled
Lacking constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond
Radical Innovation
Crisis Management
Stabilizing Methods

@danielwalsh
The Disordered Domain
Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
Tightly coupled
Loosely coupled
No constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond

@danielwalsh
Cynefin Metaphors | Games
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Coin Toss
BlackjackTexas Hold’em
Poker
Food Fight
Calvinball*
Reference: http://calvinandhobbes.wikia.com/wiki/Calvinball

@danielwalsh
Cynefin Metaphors | Signals
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Roadblock
Traffic LightRound About
Fire Alarm

@danielwalsh
Agile in Context | Software Testing
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Unit Test
Regression
Testing
User Testing
Chaos Monkey*
*See The Netflix Simian Army post on Medium, 2011

@danielwalsh
Agile in Context | Prioritization
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Take the best
Weighted-shortest
Job First
Multiple
small bets
First-fit
Pattern Match

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Agile in Context | Estimates
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Not Needed
Estimates#NoEstimates
Take Action

@danielwalsh
Three-Circle Model Perspectives
23 Presentation Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC & Material Copyright Erik Simmons © 2017. All rights reserved.
The best solutions, platforms, and products are:
Marketable, profitable, and affordable :
desirable, useful, and usable:
Manufacturable, functional, and consumable:
Business
Usage
Technology

@danielwalsh
The Three-Circle Model Regions
24 Presentation Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC & Material Copyright Erik Simmons © 2017. All rights reserved.
Compelling solutions are found in the
center, balancing all three perspectives
A system lacking sufficient coherence
in all these areas will not be successful
Business
Value
Ingredient
Capability
Usage
Technology

@danielwalsh
Example: Go-to-Market Planning
Current Focus
1. Pain Points
2. Industry Trends
3. Offering
4. Competitive Positioning
5. Use Cases
6. Capability
7. HW & SW Stack
8. Go To Market Plan
9. Alpha demo
Recommendations from 3CM
10. Business model (revenue streams, monetization scheme, channel plans,…)
11. Technical collateral (architectural specs, Product & SW Development Kits)
25
Business
Value
Ingredient
Capability
Usage
Technology
3
4
1
5
6
7
9
11
2
8
10
Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.

Beware the certainty of
the captured expert
-Billy Vaughn Koen

Isn’t that an interesting
heuristic.
-Billy Vaughn Koen
#InterestingHeuristic

The future of Agile is one where practitioners
understand not only how, but also why Agile methods
and practices work across different contexts.
Q&A
daniel.walsh@nuCognitive.com

@danielwalsh
References
David Snowden and Mary Boone - A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, HBR
Introduction to the Three-Circle Model Webinar -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5cVexfdsVg

Agile in Context: Cynefin Framework,Three-circle model &the future of Agile

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Agile in Context: Cynefin Framework,Three-circle model &the future of Agile