Building the Third Golden Age of Aerospace
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The document discusses Airbus's vision for the future of aerospace, highlighting advancements in technology and emerging trends such as electric and hybrid-electric flight, urban air mobility, and startups in the aerospace sector. It emphasizes the significance of research, technology innovation ecosystems, and the need for strategic roadmap planning to foster industry development. The content outlines past achievements and current initiatives while predicting future opportunities in aerospace technologies.
![2. Where could we go?
System Architecture
Exploration (CDF)
3. Where should we go?
Scenario Analysis and
Technology Valuation
4. Where we are going!
R&T Portfolio Optimization
& Demonstrator Plans
Technology
Roadmaps
Demonstrator
Plans
R&T Portfolio
Technology roadmapping methodology
Steps Outputs
Airbus
Today
+5y
+10y
FOMi
FOMj
Competitor
+5y
+10y
FOMi
FOMj
Path A
Path B
?
σ[NPV] - Risk
E[NPV]-Return
M€
CADH
R&T
Projects
1. Where are we today?
Technology Roadmapping
and Assessment
N1 N2
P1 P2 ... Pn
C1 C2 ... Cn
T1 T2 T3 ... Tn
Architecture Actual roadmap graph
21](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/presentation-of-paul-eremenko-190123185955/85/Building-the-Third-Golden-Age-of-Aerospace-21-320.jpg)
Building the Third Golden Age of Aerospace
- 1. Building the Third Golden Age of Aerospace Airbus Media Day Paul Eremenko, CTO 09 June 2017
- 2. Technology curve framework 2 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
- 3. Bits: Integrated circuits 3 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Transistors ($/transistor)
- 4. Bits: Memory storage 4 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Volatile memory ($/bit) Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit) Transistors ($/transistor)
- 5. Bits: Camera CCDs 5 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Volatile memory ($/bit) Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit) Camera CCDs ($/pixel) Transistors ($/transistor)
- 6. Bits: Wireless communications 6 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Wireless comms ($/bps) Volatile memory ($/bit) Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit) Camera CCDs ($/pixel) Transistors ($/transistor)
- 7. Voilá: The smartphone Wireless comms ($/bps) Volatile memory ($/bit) Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit) Bits 7 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Camera CCDs ($/pixel) Transistors ($/transistor)
- 8. Electrons: Batteries 8 Batteries ($/mW-hr) $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bits
- 9. Electrons: Photovoltaics 9 Batteries ($/mW-hr) Photovoltaics ($/mW) $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bits
- 10. Voilà: Cubesats & quadcopter drones 10 Electrons Batteries ($/mW-hr) Photovoltaics ($/mW) $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Bits
- 11. Lowering the barrier to entry 11 €1.9B€0.9B €5.0B VC activity 2010-2015 ElectronsBits $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NumberofAerospaceStartUps 200 100 300 400 Year
- 12. What the new entrants are working on 12 Wright Electric Zunum Boom E-Hang Amazon SpaceX Bigelow PlanetLabs
- 13. NumberofAerospaceStartUps 200 100 300 400 13 €1.9B €0.9B €5.0B VC activity 2010-2015 Atoms: Manufacturing robotics $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year 20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005 ElectronsBits Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr)
- 14. NumberofAerospaceStartUps 200 100 300 400 14 €1.9B €0.9B €5.0B VC activity 2010-2015 Atoms: Additive manufacturing $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year ElectronsBits Metal ALM ($/mm^3) Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr) 20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005
- 15. NumberofAerospaceStartUps 200 100 300 400 15 €1.9B €0.9B €5.0B VC activity 2010-2015 Atoms: Synthetic biology $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year ElectronsBits Gene synthesis ($k/gene) Metal ALM ($/mm^3) Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr) 20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005
- 16. NumberofAerospaceStartUps 200 100 300 400 16 €1.9B €0.9B €5.0B VC activity 2010-2015 Direct manipulation of atoms $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year ElectronsBits Atoms 20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005 Gene synthesis ($k/gene) Metal ALM ($/mm^3) Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr)
- 17. NumberofAerospaceStartUps 200 100 300 400 17 €1.9B €0.9B €5.0B VC activity 2010-2015 $perunit 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-9 1980 Year ElectronsBits Atoms 20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005 Airplanes ($/pax-km) Compared to aviation
- 18. Are we moving fast enough?
- 19. Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem 19 Strategy
- 20. Plan 20 Tech Roadmaps Strategy Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 21. 2. Where could we go? System Architecture Exploration (CDF) 3. Where should we go? Scenario Analysis and Technology Valuation 4. Where we are going! R&T Portfolio Optimization & Demonstrator Plans Technology Roadmaps Demonstrator Plans R&T Portfolio Technology roadmapping methodology Steps Outputs Airbus Today +5y +10y FOMi FOMj Competitor +5y +10y FOMi FOMj Path A Path B ? σ[NPV] - Risk E[NPV]-Return M€ CADH R&T Projects 1. Where are we today? Technology Roadmapping and Assessment N1 N2 P1 P2 ... Pn C1 C2 ... Cn T1 T2 T3 ... Tn Architecture Actual roadmap graph 21
- 22. Drive Plan 22 R & T Projects Demonstrators Tech Roadmaps Strategy Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 23. Disrupt Drive Plan 23 R & T Projects Demonstrators A3 Silicon Valley Shenzhen Innovation Ctr Tech Roadmaps Strategy Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 24. Opportunistic Disrupt Drive Plan 24 R & T Projects Demonstrators A3 Silicon Valley Shenzhen Innovation Ctr BizLabs Airbus Ventures Tech Roadmaps Strategy Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 25. Opportunistic Disrupt Drive Plan 25 R & T Projects Demonstrators A3 Silicon Valley Shenzhen Innovation Ctr BizLabs Airbus Ventures Tech Roadmaps Strategy Tech Road- maps R&T Transactions Global Tech Scouting Experts Community Knowledge Management Government R&T Intellectual Property INFRASTRUCTURE Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 26. Filton, UK Hamburg, Germany Munich, Germany Toulouse, France Core R&T Sites 26 Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 27. 27 Toulouse, France Munich, Germany Shenzhen, China Core R&T Sites Innovation Centres Silicon Valley, USA Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem Filton, UK Hamburg, Germany
- 28. 28 Filton, UK Toulouse, France Munich, Germany Hamburg, Germany Shenzhen, China Bangalore, India Tel Aviv, Israel Moscow, Russia Seoul, S. Korea Tokyo, Japan Beijing, China Core R&T Sites Innovation Centres Scouting Silicon Valley, USA Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
- 29. Some examples...
- 30. Electric flight
- 31. DA36 E-Star e-Genius Cri-Cri E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE NewSingleAisleAircraft Electric flight: Cri-Cri 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 First flight 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 32. Electric flight: e-Genius DA36 E-Star e-Genius E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 33. Hybrid-electric flight: E-Star DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 34. Hybrid-electric flight: E-Star 2 DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 35. Electric flight: E-Fan 1.0 DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 36. Electric flight: E-Fan 1.1 DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 37. Hybrid-electric flight: E-Fan 1.2 DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 38. Electric flight: Siemens Extra 330LE DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 39. Electric testbed: E-Aircraft Systems House DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power EAS House 2016 E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 40. Electric flight: Vahana 20XX DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 2020 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 2011 2013
- 41. Electric flight: CityAirbus DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 NewSingleAisleAircraft e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 42. Hybrid-electric flight: E-Fan X DA36 E-Star E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX NewSingleAisleAircraft DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 e-Genius First flight Cri-Cri 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
- 43. Hybrid-electric flight: New Single Aisle DA36 E-Star Cri-Cri E-Fan1.2 E-Fan1.1 E-Fan1.0 CityAirbus Vahana SiemensExtra 330LE 20MW Power E-FanX NewSingleAisleAircraft DA36 E-Star2 2MW 200kW 20kW EAS House 2016 e-Genius First flight 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
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- 58. @PaulEremenko