Causal mosaics - Series of lectures on causal modelling in the social sciences
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This document discusses causal pluralism and the idea of a "causal mosaic" approach to understanding causality. It proposes that causality involves multiple concepts or "tiles" that can be arranged differently depending on the scientific or philosophical question. These tiles include concepts like probabilistic causality, counterfactuals, mechanisms, and manipulation. The causal mosaic approach aims to unify these fragments by considering how each tile addresses scientific challenges or philosophical questions. It also suggests this leads to a more flexible methodology for conceptual analysis in philosophy of causality compared to traditional accounts.
Causal mosaics - Series of lectures on causal modelling in the social sciences
- 1. Causal mosaics* Federica Russo Philosophy | Humanities | Amsterdam russofederica.wordpress.com | @federicarusso *Joint work with Phyllis Illari
- 2. Overview Philosophical theorising about causality Varieties of causal pluralism Causal mosaics and philosophical methodology
- 4. Phil Sci approaches to causality A straightjacket to bridle phenomena? Traditional accounts In search of univocal definitions Applicable anywhere Or a lens through which reading scientific methods? CitS / PSP / PI In search for networks of concepts Respond to scientific / philosophical / societal challenges 4
- 5. Conceptual analysis What explicates the concept of ‘causality’ What makes causal claims true What is causality / are causes, metaphysically 5
- 6. How good are intuitions? Exploit everyday intuitions to draw conclusions about the metaphysics of causation from everyday or toy examples Examples The ‘Billy and Suzy’ episodes The assassins … Some conclusions There are two concepts of cause: production and dependence Counterfactual accounts are seriously flawed … 6
- 7. Analysis of scientific practice Philosophical questions about causation (and other topics) are motivated by methodological and practical problems in real science Start from scientific practice to bottom up philosophy Partly descriptive and partly normative Examples Causal assessment in medicine Causal reasoning in quantitative social science … Some conclusions Causal assessment has two evidential components: mechanisms and difference-making ‘Variation’ (rather than regularity) guides causal reasoning … 7
- 9. Making sense of a vast intellectual enterprise Diversity in philosophical theorising about causes Long history, ups and downs Many concepts Expansion of philosophical theorising about causes Beyond physics, attention to the special sciences, and medicine Attention for questions about use, besides traditional metaphysics, epistemology, and semantics 9
- 10. Causal pluralism: causality cannot be reduced to one single concept but has to be analysed using several concepts 10
- 12. Ad hoc pluralism? A concept for each scientific domain Physics ? Social science ? Medicine ? Biology ? Any unifying concept? Irreducible different concepts? 12
- 13. Ad hoc monism? The ‘epistemic’ turn: From concepts of cause to evidential components From causings in the world to causal beliefs 13
- 14. What should you be pluralistic about?
- 15. Types of causing Anscombian pluralism: pulling, pushing, binding, … Aristotelian causes Concepts of causation Hall: Dependence vs production Types of inferences Inferential bases, inferential targets. Epistemic causality Sources of evidence Difference-making and mechanisms Methods for causal inference Quantitative, qualitative, observational, experimental, … 15
- 17. Philosophical Questions Metaphysics What is causality? What kind of things are causes and effects? Semantics What does it mean that C causes E? Epistemology What notions guide causal reasoning? How can we use C to explain E? Methodology How to establish whether C causes E? Or how much of C causes E? Use What to do once we know that C causes E? Scientific Problems Inference Does C cause E? To what extent? Prediction What to expect if C does (not) cause E? Explanation How does C cause or prevent E? Control What factors to hold fixed to study the relation between C and E? Reasoning What considerations about whether / how / to what extent C causes E? 17
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- 20. Inference, Prediction, Explanation, Control, Reasoning Causal Mosaic Metaphysics, Semantics, Epistemology, Methodology, Use Necessary and sufficient Levels Evidence Probabilistic causality Counterfact uals Manipulatio n Invariance Exogeneity Simpson’s Paradox Process Mechanism Information Dispositions Regularity Variation Action Inference Validity Truth 20
- 21. Tiles for the Causal Mosaic … necessary and sufficient; levels; evidence; probabilistic causality; counterfactuals; manipulation and invariance; processes; mechanisms; information exogeneity; Simpson’s paradox; dispositions; regularity; variation; action; inference; validity; truth; … To be arranged by Philosophical Questions Metaphysics, Semantics, Epistemology, Methodology, Use Scientific Problems Inference, Prediction, Explanation, Control, Reasoning 21
- 22. Unifying the fragments into the causal mosaic A (causal) mosaic is picture made of tiles Each fragment has a role that Is determined by the scientific challenge / philosophical question it addresses Stands in a relation with neighbouring concepts The causal mosaic is dynamic, partly depends on scientists’ / philosophers’ perspectives 22
- 23. PHILOSOPHICAL METHODOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY OF CAUSALITY 23
- 24. Philosophical consequences of causal pluralism Conceptual analysis 2.0 Building networks of concepts No winning concepts Agents are part of the picture Philosophical argumentation Use of examples and counterexamples 24
- 25. Accounts of causality Counterexamples Scope Relevant questions How many Found in the literature All possible worlds. What does causation logically/metaphysically mean? One logically possible example. Witches casting spells; Angels protecting glasses. Worlds close to the actual world. What is causation metaphysically? One metaphysically possible example. World with reverse temporal direction; Salmon’s moving spot of light. This world. What is causation in this world? One or more real examples. Kinetic theory of gases / quantum mechanics; Billy and Suzy / bombing the enemy town. Some region in this world. What is causation in biochemistry, or physics? A few real examples in the relevant domain. Causality in protein synthesis mechanisms. Some region of this world at some time. What kind of causal explanation can we give of the economic crisis in 1929? Can we give the same kind of explanation of the economic crisis now? A few real examples in the relevant domain at the relevant time; Typical not skewed examples. Causality in the discovery of protein synthesis. Causality in systems biological approaches to protein synthesis. 25
- 26. SKETCHING AN EXAMPLE OF ‘MOSAIC’ RESASONING
- 27. 27 Manipulationism Invariance under intervention ✓Methodological ✓Experimental ✓ Possible, feasible, real ✗Ideal, imaginary ✗Observational ✗ Conceptual
- 28. TO SUM UP AND CONCLUDE 28
- 29. Pluralisms Philosophical investigation of causality has at least two main traditions Conceptual analysis Analysis of scientific practice Analyses of scientific practices report a plurality of pluralisms In the methods, concepts, meanings, sources of evidence, … Can we make (philosophical) sense of such pluralism? 29
- 30. Liberalising methodologies Philosophical traditions in context (Philosophical) Questions and methods Philosophy of causality Inclusive, collaborative, engaging 30
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