Ch_03_rerferferferferfefeferferfeevised.ppt
- 1. VALUATION OF BONDS AND SHARES CHAPTER 3
- 2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Explain the fundamental characteristics of ordinary shares, preference shares and bonds (or debentures). Show the use of the present value concepts in the valuation of shares and bonds. Learn about the linkage between the share values, earnings and dividends and the required rate of return on the share. Focus on the uses and misuses of price-earnings (P/E) ratio. 2
- 3. Introduction Assets can be real or financial; securities like shares and bonds are called financial assets while physical assets like plant and machinery are called real assets. The concepts of return and risk, as the determinants of value, are as fundamental and valid to the valuation of securities as to that of physical assets. Efficient capital market implies a well-informed, properly functioning capital market. 3
- 4. Concept of Value Book Value- Book value per share is determined as net worth divided by the number of shares outstanding. Book value reflects historical cost, rather than value. Replacement Value- Replacement value is the amount that a company would be required to spend if it were to replace its existing assets in the current condition. 4
- 5. Concept of Value Liquidation Value- Liquidation value is the amount that a company could realise if it sold its assets, after having terminated its business. Going Concern Value- Going concern value is the amount that a company could realise if it sold its business as an operating business. Market Value- Market value of an asset or security is the current price at which the asset or the security is being sold or bought in the market. 5
- 6. Features of a Bond Long-term debt instrument or security. Can be secured or unsecured. Interest Rate or coupon rate is fixed Face Value or par value of Rs 100 or Rs 1,000, and interest is paid on face value. Maturity is fixed. Redemption value - may be redeemed at par or premium. Market Value- may be different from par value or redemption value as it is traded in the market. 6
- 7. Bond Indentures Contract between the company and the bondholders and includes The basic terms of the bonds The total amount of bonds issued A description of property used as security, if applicable Sinking fund provisions Call provisions Details of protective covenants 7
- 8. Types of Bonds Bonds with maturity Pure discount bonds -The bond discount is the difference between the par value and the selling price. Perpetual bonds 8
- 10. Example 10
- 12. Current Yield Current yield is the annual interest divided by the bond’s current value. Example: The annual interest is Rs 60 on the current investment of Rs 883.40. Therefore, the current rate of return or the current yield is: 60/883.40 = 6.8 per cent. Current yield does not account for the capital gain or loss. 12
- 13. Yield to Call 13
- 14. Bond Value and Amortisation of Principal 14
- 15. Example Suppose the government is proposing to sell a 5- year bond of Rs 1,000 at 8 per cent rate of interest per annum. The bond amount will be amortised (repaid) equally over its life. If an investor has a minimum required rate of return of 7 per cent, what is the bond’s present value for him? 15
- 16. Example 16
- 17. Bond Values and Semi-annual Interest Payments 17
- 18. Example 18
- 19. Pure Discount Bonds Pure discount bond do not carry an explicit rate of interest. It provides for the payment of a lump sum amount at a future date in exchange for the current price of the bond. The difference between the face value of the bond and its purchase price gives the return or YTM to the investor. 19
- 22. Example 22
- 23. Perpetual Bonds Perpetual bonds, also called consols, has an indefinite life and therefore, it has no maturity value. Perpetual bonds or debentures are rarely found in practice. 23
- 24. Example 24
- 25. Bond Values and Changes in Interest Rates The value of the bond declines as the market interest rate (discount rate) increases. The value of a 10-year, 12 per cent Rs 1,000 bond for the market interest rates ranging from 0 per cent to 30 per cent is shown in the figure. 25
- 26. Bond Maturity and Interest Rate Risk The intensity of interest rate risk would be higher on bonds with long maturities than bonds with short maturities. The differential value response to interest rates changes between short and long-term bonds will always be true. Thus, two bonds of same quality (in terms of the risk of default) would have different exposure to interest rate risk. 26 Bond Value at Different Interest Rates
- 27. 27 Bond Maturity and Interest Rate Risk
- 28. Bond Duration and Interest Rate Sensitivity The longer the maturity of a bond, the higher will be its sensitivity to the interest rate changes. Similarly, the price of a bond with low coupon rate will be more sensitive to the interest rate changes. The bond’s price sensitivity can be more accurately estimated by its duration. A bond’s duration is measured as the weighted average of times to each cash flow (interest payment or repayment of principal). 28
- 29. Duration of Bonds Let us consider two bonds with five-year maturity. The 8.5 per cent rate bond of Rs 1,000 face value has a current market value of Rs 954.74 and a YTM of 10 per cent, and the 11.5 per cent rate bond of Rs 1,000 face value has a current market value of Rs 1,044.57 and a yield to maturity of 10.6 per cent. Next we find out the proportion of the present value of each flow to the value of the bond. The duration of the bond is calculated as the weighted average of times to the proportion of the present value of cash flows. 29
- 30. Volatility 30
- 31. The Term Structure of Interest Rates 31
- 32. The Term Structure of Interest Rates The upward sloping yield curve implies that the long-term yields are higher than the short-term yields. This is the normal shape of the yield curve, which is generally verified by historical evidence. Many economies in high-inflation periods have witnessed the short-term yields being higher than the long-term yields. The inverted yield curves result when the short-term rates are higher than the long-term rates. 32
- 33. The Expectation Theory The expectation theory supports the upward sloping yield curve since investors always expect the short-term rates to increase in the future. This implies that the long-term rates will be higher than the short-term rates. But in the present value terms, the return from investing in a long-term security will equal to the return from investing in a series of a short-term security. 33
- 34. The Expectation Theory The expectation theory assumes capital markets are efficient there are no transaction costs and investors’ sole purpose is to maximize their returns The long-term rates are geometric average of current and expected short-term rates. A significant implication of the expectation theory is that given their investment horizon, investors will earn the same average expected returns on all maturity combinations. Hence, a firm will not be able to lower its interest cost in the long-run by the maturity structure of its debt. 34
- 35. The Liquidity Premium Theory Long-term bonds are more sensitive than the prices of the short-term bonds to the changes in the market rates of interest. Hence, investors prefer short-term bonds to the long-term bonds. The investors will be compensated for this risk by offering higher returns on long-term bonds. This extra return, which is called liquidity premium, gives the yield curve its upward bias. 35
- 36. The Liquidity Premium Theory The liquidity premium theory means that rates on long-term bonds will be higher than on the short-term bonds. From a firm’s point of view, the liquidity premium theory suggests that as the cost of short-term debt is less, the firm could minimize the cost of its borrowings by continuously refinancing its short-term debt rather taking on long-term debt. 36
- 37. The Segmented Markets Theory The segmented markets theory assumes that the debt market is divided into several segments based on the maturity of debt. In each segment, the yield of debt depends on the demand and supply. Investors’ preferences of each segment arise because they want to match the maturities of assets and liabilities to reduce the susceptibility to interest rate changes. 37
- 38. The Segmented Markets Theory The segmented markets theory approach assumes investors do not shift from one maturity to another in their borrowing—lending activities and therefore, the shift in yields are caused by changes in the demand and supply for bonds of different maturities. 38
- 39. Default Risk and Credit Rating Default risk is the risk that a company will default on its promised obligations to bondholders. Default premium is the spread between the promised return on a corporate bond and the return on a government bond with same maturity. 39
- 41. Valuation of Shares A company may issue two types of shares: ordinary shares and preference shares Features of Preference and Ordinary Shares Claims Dividend Redemption Conversion 41
- 42. Valuation of Preference Shares 42
- 43. Value of a Preference Share-Example 43
- 44. Valuation of Ordinary Shares The valuation of ordinary or equity shares is relatively more difficult. The rate of dividend on equity shares is not known; also, the payment of equity dividend is discretionary. The earnings and dividends on equity shares are generally expected to grow, unlike the interest on bonds and preference dividend. 44
- 46. Example- Single Period Valuation 46
- 47. 47 An under-valued share has a market price less than the share’s present value. An over-valued share has a market price higher than the share’s present value.
- 50. Example 50
- 51. Present value of dividends and future share price 51
- 52. Growth in Dividends Earnings and dividends of most companies grow over time, at least, because of their retention policies. 52
- 53. Normal Growth If a totally equity financed firm retains a constant proportion of its annual earnings (b) and reinvests it at its internal rate of return, which is its return on equity (ROE), then it can be shown that the dividends will grow at a constant rate equal to the product of retention ratio and return on equity; that is, g = b × ROE. 53
- 55. BV, EPS, DPS and Retained Earnings Under Constant Growth Assumption 55
- 57. Perpetual Growth Model It is based on the following assumptions: The capitalization rate or the opportunity cost of capital must be greater than the growth rate, (ke >g), otherwise absurd results will be attained. If ke= g, the equation will yield an infinite price, and if ke < g, the result will be a negative price. The initial dividend per share, DIV1, must be greater than zero (i.e., DIV1 > 0). The relationship between ke and g is assumed to remain constant and perpetual. 57
- 59. Super-normal Growth The dividends of a company may not grow at the same constant rate indefinitely. It may face a two-stage growth situation. In the first stage, dividends may grow at a super-normal growth rate when the company is experiencing very high demand for its products and is able to extract premium from customers. Afterwards, the demand for the company’s products may normalize and therefore, earnings and dividends may grow at a normal growth rate. 59
- 60. Super-normal Growth The share value in a two stage growth situation can be determined in two parts. First, we can find the present value of constantly growing dividend annuity for a definite super-normal growth period. Second, we can calculate the present value of constantly growing dividend, indefinitely (in perpetuity), after the super- normal growth period. 60
- 65. Firm Paying no Dividends Companies paying no dividends do command positive market prices for their shares since the price today depends on the future expectation of dividends. The non-payment of dividends may not last forever. Shareholders hold shares of such companies because they expect that in the final analysis dividends will be paid, or they will be able to realize capital gains. 65
- 66. Earnings Capitalisation Under two cases, the value of the share can be determined by capitalising the expected earnings: When the firm pays out 100 per cent dividends; that is, it does not retain any earnings. When the firm’s return on equity (ROE) is equal to its opportunity cost of capital. 66
- 68. Caution in Using Constant-Growth Formula Estimation errors Unsustainable high current growth Errors in forecasting dividends 68
- 70. Example: Equity Capitalization Rate 70
- 71. Linkages Between Share Price, Earnings And Dividends Investors may choose between growth shares or income shares. Growth shares are those, which offer greater opportunities for capital gains. Dividend yield (i.e. dividend per shares as a percentage of the market price of the share) on such shares would generally be low since companies would follow a high retention policy in order to have a high growth rate. Income shares are those that pay higher dividends, and offer low prospects for capital gains. Those investors who want regular income would prefer to buy income shares, which pay high dividends regularly. On the other hand, if investors desire to earn higher return via capital gains, they would prefer to buy growth shares. They would like a profitable company to retain its earnings in the expectation of higher market price of the share in the future. 71
- 72. Example: Linkages Between Share Price, Earnings And Dividends 72
- 73. 73 Example: Linkages Between Share Price, Earnings And Dividends
- 74. 74 Example: Linkages Between Share Price, Earnings And Dividends
- 76. Example 76
- 77. Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How Significant? P/E ratio is calculated as the price of a share divided by earning per share. Some people use P/E multiplier to value the shares of companies. Alternatively, you could find the share value by dividing EPS by E/P ratio, which is the reciprocal of P/E ratio. 77
- 78. Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How Significant? 78
- 79. Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How Significant? Cautions: E/P ratio will be equal to the capitalisation rate only if the value of growth opportunities is zero. A high P/E ratio is considered good but it could be high not because the share price is high but because the earnings per share are quite low. The interpretation of P/E ratio becomes meaningless because of the measurement problems of EPS. 79