Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016
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The document is Cisco's Visual Networking Index forecast of global mobile data traffic. It predicts that by 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach 130 exabytes per year, a 78% annual increase from 2011-2016. This growth is driven by more mobile users, connections, faster speeds and increasing mobile video usage. Asia Pacific will account for the largest share of traffic at 40.1% by 2016. In 2011, global mobile data traffic doubled for the fourth year in a row despite economic challenges. By 2016, 71% of total mobile data traffic will be cloud traffic versus local and on-device non-cloud traffic.
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016
- 1. Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update March 2012 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Cisco Public 1
- 2. Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Global Mobile Data Speed Data Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 2
- 3. More Mobile Connections Faster Mobile Speeds More Mobile Users More Mobile Video Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 3
- 4. By 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 130 exabytes per year. • 130X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000 130 Exabytes • 33 Billion DVDs is equal to: • 813 Quadrillion SMS text messages Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public 4
- 5. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 10 10.8 EB per mo Exabytes per Month 8 6 6.9 EB per mo 4 4.2 EB per mo 2 2.4 EB 0.6 EB 1.3 EB per mo per mo per mo 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 5
- 6. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 10.8 10 Exabytes per Month 8 6.9 6 6.3 4 2 0.6 0.6 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 6
- 7. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Business 10 Consumer 23.1% Exabytes per Month 8 6 76.9% 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 7
- 8. * 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Middle East and Africa (MEA) 5.88% 10 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 6.54% Latin America (LATAM) 6.83% Exabytes per Month 8 North America (NA) 18.18% Western Europe (WE) Asia Pacific (APAC) 6 22.56% 4 40.01% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Includes Japan Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 8
- 9. In 2011, global mobile data traffic more than doubled (2.3X growth) for the fourth year in a row, despite economic uncertainty, continued traffic offload, and the broader adoption of tiered pricing. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 9
- 10. 100% 90% 80% 45% 54% 70% 61% 66% 69% 71% 60% 50% 40% 30% 55% 46% 20% 39% 34% 31% 29% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic Mobile Cloud Traffic © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 10
- 11. 16 Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 14 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices 12 22% Exabytes per Month 10 8 6 78% 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 11
- 12. 45 40 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices 16% Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 35 Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic from All Portable Devices 4% Exabytes per Month 30 25 20 80% 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 12
- 13. By 2016, 60 percent of mobile users (3 billion people) will belong to the Gigabyte Club, generating more than one gigabyte of mobile data traffic per month. In 2011, 0.5 percent of mobile users belonged to the Gigabyte Club. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 13
- 14. 2011 2016 92 MB 1.2 GB Traffic/month Traffic/month 10 Video Clips 3 Video Clips 5 Videos 5 Audio tracks 50 Audio tracks 1 Video call 3 Video calls 5 App Downloads 10 App Downloads © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 14
- 15. 60% Percentage of top 1 percent 50% Top 1 percent to total MB/mo 40% 30% 52% 20% 24% 10% 0% Month 1 Month 21 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 15
- 16. 14 1.3 Top 20% 12 (102% Y/Y) 2.0 Gigabytes per Month 10 Top 10% 0.6 3.0 (81% Y/Y) 8 1.1 6 1.8 Top 5% (64% Y/Y) 4 6.9 5.0 Top 1% 2 (37% Y/Y) 0 2010 2011 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 16
- 17. 45% 40% Month 10 35% Month 21 Percentage of Users 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than 5 GB 2 GB 200 MB 20 MB 1 MB Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 17
- 18. 3.0 2.5 Month 21 Month 20 Gigabytes per Month Month 19 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Android Apple Windows Blackberry Proprietary Symbian Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 18
- 19. By 2016, there will be 1.4 mobile connections (devices and M2M) for every member of the world’s population. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 19
- 20. 100% 8% 12% 90% 15% 19% 22% 25% 80% 70% 60% 50% 92% 88% 40% 85% 81% 78% 75% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 One Mobile Device 2 or More Mobile Devices © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 20
- 21. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Other Portable Devices (2.2%) M2M (4.7%) 10 Home Gateways (4.8%) Exabytes per Month Non-Smartphones (5.7%) 8 Tablets (10.0%) Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%) 6 Smartphones (48.3%) 4 2 (Figures in legend refer to traffic 0 share in 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016.) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 21
- 22. Smartphone = 35 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Handheld Gaming Console = 60 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Tablet = 121 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Mobile Phone Projector = 300 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Laptop = 498 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 22
- 23. 2011 2016 MBs per Month MBs per Month Non-Smartphone 4.3 108 M2M 71 266 Smartphone 150 2,576 E-Book Reader 750 2,880 Tablet 517 4,223 Laptop 2,131 6,942 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 23
- 24. 600 86% CAGR 2010–2015 500 508 PB per mo Petabytes per Month 400 300 200 100 23 PB per mo 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 24
- 25. By 2016, the amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets (13 EBs) will be nearly 2X the total amount of global mobile data traffic generated in 2011 (7 EBs). Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Cisco 25
- 26. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Mobile VoIP (0.3%) 10 Mobile Gaming (1.1%) Mobile File Sharing (3.3%) Exabytes per Month Mobile M2M (4.7%) 8 Mobile Web/Data (20.0%) Mobile Video (70.5%) 6 4 2 (Figures in legend refer to traffic 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 share in 2016.) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 26
- 27. 400 353 MB 350 Netflix 300 Megabytes per Month 109 250 Pandora Pandora 200 55 55 Facebook Facebook Facebook 149 MB 40 40 40 150 Web Web Web Web 100 89 89 89 89 50 Email Email Email Email 60 60 60 60 0 Email+Web +Facebook +Pandora +Netflix Source: Arbitron Mobile, 2012 Cisco Public 27 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
- 28. By 2016, nearly three- fourth’s (71%) of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video. Mobile video traffic will double every year between 2011 and 2016. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 28
- 29. CAGR (kb p s ) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011-2016 Glo b a l Global Speed – 315 504 792 1,236 1,908 2,873 56% Avg. Mobile Connection Global Speed – 1,344 1,829 2,425 3,166 4,102 5,244 31% Avg. Smartphone Connection By Re g io n Middle East & Africa 89 206 434 850 1,555 2,618 97% Central & Eastern Europe 205 396 739 1,316 2,228 3,476 76% Latin America 125 227 396 673 1,082 1,627 67% Western Europe 667 1,196 1,967 2,960 4,163 5,549 53% Asia-Pacific 337 497 732 1,101 1,697 2,608 51% North America 1,138 1,712 2,485 3,531 4,923 6,785 43% Source: Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) results and other independent speed test findings © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 29
- 30. 12 4G Traffic 10 Non-4G Traffic 36% Exabytes per Month 8 6 4 64% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 30
- 31. In 2011, a 4G connection generated 2.4 GB/mo, 28X higher than the 86 MB/mo for non-4G connections. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 31
- 32. 2.0 42% CAGR 2011–2016 1.5 1.62B Number of Devices (B) 1.0 0.5 280M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 32
- 33. 4.5 43% CAGR 2011–2016 4.0 4.03B 3.5 Number of Devices (B) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 662M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 33
- 34. Global Mobile Data Traffic By 2016, mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 EBs/month (130 EBs annually). Global Mobile Traffic Offload In 2011, 11% of mobile traffic was offloaded; by 2016, 22% will be offloaded. Global Mobile Cloud In 2011, cloud was 45% of mobile data traffic; will be 71% by 2016. Global Mobile Video By 2016, over 70% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video. Global Mobile Network Speeds Mobile connection speeds will increase 9-fold from 2011 - 2016. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 34
- 35. Public VNI Content: www.cisco.com/go/vni • News / press releases • White papers • FAQs • Free application • Traffic modeling tools • Additional resources Send questions to VNI team: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Cisco Public Confidential 35
- 36. Thank you. © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 36