Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears
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The document discusses various cognitive biases, such as anchoring, optimism bias, and confirmation bias, and their effects on decision-making. It provides strategies for mitigating these biases, including the use of planning poker, silent writing, and seeking diverse opinions. The importance of understanding these biases in the context of teamwork and resource management is emphasized throughout the presentation.
Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears
- 1. P re s e n t e d b y Cognitive Bias Exploring what goes on between your ears Dan Neumann AgileIndy 2016
- 3. Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. • www.agilethought.com • dan.neumann@agilethought.com • www. linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann • @DanRNeumann • 574-514-3285 • http://neumanagementllc.com/blog/
- 4. Imagine…
- 5. Anchoring •Over-Weight the First Information •Make Decisions while Anchored •Especially a problem under pressure https://www.flickr.com/photos/chris_cardew/ •Planning Poker •Silent Writing •Start with “Why” •Sleep on it
- 7. Imagine…
- 8. Optimism Bias Generally believe ourselves to be less prone to certain events. 8
- 9. Optimism Bias and Selective Updating Representative of Group 1: Learns the actual chance is 50% 9 “ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011 Representative of Group 2: Learns the actual chance is 10% Believes chance of cancer is 30% New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22%
- 10. 10 “ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011 It’s Biological
- 11. Combat: Make The Processing More Complex “Beyond Budgeting” •Estimate •Budget •Expected outcome 11
- 12. Debiasing: Multiple Explanation 1. “Consider the Opposite” 2. Consider any Alternative 3. Alternative Plausibility 12
- 13. Related to Planning Fallacy Address Planning Fallacy with Reference Class Forecasting
- 14. Availability Bias •We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example •In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick. 14
- 15. Combating Availability Bias •Research •Beware the most recent/memorable •Personas •Experiments 15
- 16. Two Categories 16 https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/ Ego BiasInformation Bias Anchoring Optimism Availability
- 17. Illusory Superiority The “Above Average” Bias 17 NOTE: Don’t call it Lake Wobegon Effect: http://www.publicradio.org/columns/prairiehome/posthost/2013/04/01/the_lake_wobegon_effect.php Image: http://bit.ly/20qozUI
- 18. Attribution Bias 18 My Your Success Failure *Not true of all cultures Innate Abilities Circumstances Bad Luck Incompetence
- 19. Dunning-Kruger Effect 19 Unskilled Highly Skilled Self- Assessment Side-Effect Overestimated Underestimated Overconfidence Frustration with Others
- 20. Moderating Ego Bias Create Safety “Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” --Norm Kerth Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review
- 21. Moderating Ego Bias •Model Getting Feedback •Evaluate the work, not the individual •Bring Data •Broaden your perspective
- 22. In-Group/Out-Group Bias • Positive characters ascribed to their own group • Negative characteristics ascribed to other groups • Especially when competing for resources! 22 Mitigation Strategies: • Get a broader definition of “my group” • Address the resource scarcity
- 23. Choice-Supportive Bias •Highlight positive attributes of our selection •Downplay positive attributes of alternatives 23 Mitigation Strategies: •Regular Reviews •Engage with outsiders
- 24. Confirmation Bias (a.k.a.,“Myside Bias”) •Seek information that supports our beliefs or hypotheses •Co-opt Ambiguity 24 Mitigation Strategies: •Additional Opinions •“Yes, and…”
- 25. Social Desirability Bias •Over-report “good” behavior •Underreport “bad” 25
- 26. Hawthorne Effect People tend to behave differently when they are being observed. 26 Use it for Advantage: •Video during meetings •Sprint Reviews
- 29. Agony by wallsdontlie Poison and Vomit by Thomas Hawk
- 31. We discussed: Anchoring Optimism Bias Availability Bias Illusory Superiority Attribution Bias Dunning-Kruger Effect In-Group/Out-Group Choice-Supportive Confirmation Social Desirability Hawthorne Effect Bias Against Creativity 32
- 32. Summary of Strategies • Show your cards all at once: • Planning Poker • Silent Writing • Start with “Why” • Sleep on it • Make the issue more complex (e.g., Beyond Budgeting) • Multiple Explanation • Reference Class Forecasting • Research • Experiments • Personas • Create Safety • Model Getting Feedback • Bring Data • Evaluate the work, not the individual • Broaden your perspective • Broaden the definition of “My Group" • Address the sense of resource scarcity • Review your choices. • Include outsiders • Create additional options • Yes, And • Take advantage of Hawthorne Effect • Reduce Uncertainty to allow for Creativity
- 33. Blind Spot Bias • When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of others, but fail to see the impact of biases on one’s own judgment • Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less biased than the average American 34
- 34. Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. • www.agilethought.com • dan.neumann@agilethought.com • www. linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann • @DanRNeumann • 574-514-3285 • http://neumanagementllc.com/blog/
Editor's Notes
- #2: What tools do you use? How consistently do they perform? What would happen if they didn’t give consistent results? Unexpected behavior is troublesome. What’s your greatest tool?
- #3: Brain: not consistent; react to stimuli; evolutionary roots https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/f33fe034-7f1b-45e8-9b70-7984b580cd97/ Reacitons, and the way our brains react physically. Neural relationships strengthen. Serves us well in business. Cave Man Story 3:15…. Cave Man -> Homo Sapien 3:55 If we had to think deeply about everything, the sabre tooth tigers would have won a long time ago. Biases are helpful when they are in context. They are not helpful when they are out of context.
- #4: Share about my background and interest in psychology, neurosurgery, and computer science.
- #5: Who here has been asked to review a PowerPoint? Look at this deck? What do you look for? (slide count, fonts, number of bullets) Why are you even doing a PowerPoint? Combat the Anchoring by asking Powerful Questions…
- #6: Examples: Study: Percent of countries in Africa that are part of the UN. Influenced by number they were given. Social Security Number and impact on auction bidding. Counteract: Expose opinions all at the same time Start with why. Don’t overdo the “Why?” Counteract: Sleep on it. We feel anchoring most when we feel under pressure. Sleep on it
- #7: https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/e0e6d2fb-d51e-49ca-b290-54338fd706ca/ (note: Cognitive biases are bad for business) Can I get an icon for Ego Bias and Information Bias… or have an ego/information bias on one axis and the three layers of work on another.
- #8: “Why are they going to do so much better than Team A?”
- #9: This is true, especially of negative events. True in absolute terms, and true in relative terms. Alternative Bias - Another example: Crowe Chizek growth target – missed the 20% growth by about half (grew 10% and not 20%. They then projected the next year’s growth based off of the missed target! Origin of this was: Relate story of Jim Zeoli – Burndown information. What it had to be to hit target, and what it actually was.
- #10: Example from projects: put together a risk plan and then the risks are gone.
- #11: This is why it’s so tricky… the brains light up differently.
- #13: Does explaining something make us believe it to be more likely?
- #15: Combating Availability Bias evernote (https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/4a39f014-7d7d-49ab-9f10-bab0e305a881/ ) What’s the most extreme example of Available bias? Self We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick. Example: Ebola outbreak. The likelihood was considered much higher. “Self” is the most extreme “available example.” (USE MIRROR IMAGE)
- #16: Combating Availability Bias evernote (https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/4a39f014-7d7d-49ab-9f10-bab0e305a881/ )
- #17: https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/e0e6d2fb-d51e-49ca-b290-54338fd706ca/ (note: Cognitive biases are bad for business) Can I get an icon for Ego Bias and Information Bias… or have an ego/information bias on one axis and the three layers of work on another.
- #19: Examples: I worked hard in school and went to college, getting a computer science degree, and working into a good career. Circumstances: I was born a white male, with two college educated parents. I had an uncle who gave me money to purchase a $3,500 computer when I was a freshman in college so I could write software. There are many people who don’t have those circumstances, and if I had been born into a minority demographic without those circumstances, life would have turned out differently for me.
- #20: THERE IS A CHART IN THIS EVERNOTE: https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/b4619092-4e1b-47e4-96ff-5289a0aa1167/ Unskilled people cannot recognize their own ineptitude. Can Combat Unskilled impact by providing training. Then, they will recognize their gap. Generally, self-assessment Is a challenge Where unskilled people suffer from Illusory Superiority, assess their own ability to be much higher. Unskilled don’t recognize their ineptitude (Think of singers on American Idol, when they’re terrible) Conversely, High skilled individulas underestinate their relative competence, erroneously assuming the tasks that are easy for them are easy for others. Example: New Developer – likely to move ahead with overconfidence. Combat this: Get others’ perspective. Pair coaching? Be careful not to Anchor! Combat This: when giving tasks, don’t have overinflated expectations. Let them choose the “how.”
- #21: Chose to not say “Combatting ego bias” since we’re all subject to it Create Safety – make it OK to not know everything. Model learning, practice, and seeking feedback Look at results
- #22: Chose to not say “Combatting ego bias” since we’re all subject to it Create Safety – make it OK to not know everything. Model learning, practice, and seeking feedback Look at results
- #23: When competing for resources, individuals attribute positive characteristics for themselves.(see note Illusory Superiority, Related Psychological Phenom… in Evernote) Can see this with contention between groups. Combat this by conducting events that create a broader definition of “In-Group”
- #24: https://www.evernote.com/shard/s118/nl/2147483647/dc3ac25d-7f27-4b72-9a3c-c4ccd5cf1f14/ Just like In-group/out-group, where we ascribe positive characteristics to our own group, in Choice-Supportive bias, we ascribe positive attributes to things we decided to select. Examples: Scrum vs. Kanban, Apple vs. Mac, .net vs. Java
- #25: Who’s seem people google up some results that support their position? Or, point to statistics that don’t’ really say what they think they say? Participant in training shared an “Agile is Dead” post Ambiguity -> interpret ambiguous statistics, or ambiguous information.
- #26: Want to report what will be seen favorably by the person we’re talking to. Combat this by asking as neutrally as possible… <??? How does this impact a team???>
- #27: Medical example: Smoking cessation drug testing. Work example: Focus on work when others are watching (who’s going to play Clash of Clans or Candy Crush when they’re being watched at work?)
- #28: Ask people if they like to have creative solutions to problems,.
- #29: Beware Uncertainty! Promotes negative attitudes toward creativity Makes creativity hard to recognize 95% made explicit statements about supporting Creativity Experiment showed high correlation to words like “Vomit” “Poison” and “Agony”
- #30: Ask people if they like to have creative solutions to problems,.
- #33: (Some of the ideas in the Evernote titled “Cognitive biases are bad for business | Psychology Today” are helpful. Some are bogus. GI Joe use to close with “And now you know… and knowing is half the battle.” Simply knowing about a bias is not enough. Research (cite some?) has indicated that we’re still going to underestimate the impact they have on our own decision making (Blind Spot Bias) ?How might having a decision framework help avoid cognitive biases? ?Might some of these be combatted with silent writing activities?
- #35: From wikipedia article Also see note Illusory Superiority, Related Psychological Phenom… in Evernote) Keep in mind that these are unconscious things… Bias is present for a reason.Helped us survive and grow. Embrace our human condition, and the condition of other humans.
- #36: Share about my background and interest in psychology, neurosurgery, and computer science.