![Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
(FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI
designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/crifpresentationcleantech10oct2011finalv1-111011095305-phpapp02/85/What-is-Cambridshire-s-potential-for-renewable-energy-Duncan-Price-Camco-4-320.jpg)
What is Cambridshire's potential for renewable energy? – Duncan Price, Camco
- 1. Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework Presentation to Cambridge Cleantech 10/10/11 Duncan Price, Director, Camco Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
- 2. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives What is Cambridgeshire's potential? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 1
- 3. Cambridgeshire is progressing well Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 2
- 4. Modelling renewable energy deployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - 'high DECC - 'high Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3
- 5. Deployment options for renewable energy Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4
- 6. Renewable electricity potential is very large Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 5
- 7. Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 6
- 8. S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 7
- 9. District heating potential lies in Cambridge and Huntingdon Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 8
- 10. Substantial infrastructure is needed Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 9
- 11. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10
- 12. Energy efficiency and renewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 11
- 13. Conclusions • Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity • There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind • All technologies are needed – heat and electricity • Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031 • Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget • Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
- 14. Thanks Duncan Price Renewable energy delivery pathways Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
- 15. There are three delivery pathways Community Public Sector Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
- 16. What is the potential for each pathway? Deployment potential by pathway 1600 Deployment potential (GWh) 1400 Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
- 17. Community deployment potential • PV • 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels • 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%) • Solar water heating • 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%) • Heat pumps • 43,000 or 15% of houses • Wind • 75MW or 30 turbines Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
- 18. Vision for community delivery pathway • Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy • Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms • Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation • Communities have access to a range of funding sources • Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types • Gaining access to existing and new funding sources • Communities are maximising learning from leading practice • Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes • Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
- 19. Vision for community delivery pathway • Communities are managing energy projects effectively • Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach • Range of delivery options identified • Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18
- 20. Public sector deployment potential • PV • 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels • 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 houses (18%) • Solar water heating • 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%) • Heat pumps • 8,100 or 20% of houses • Wind • 27MW or 11 turbines • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
- 21. Vision for public sector pathway • Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets • PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres • PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners • Appropriate wind development on public land • Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP • Renewable energy transition plan for each building • Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
- 22. Vision for public sector pathway • Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets • Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL • Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding • Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion • Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc. • Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
- 23. Vision for public sector pathway • Establish Green Deal EE partnerships • Secure ECO funding CIL • Require connection to DH • zero carbon homes •Planning protocol for wind • Secure resources LDF • Local Development Order for PV Fund • Establish Community Energy Mainstream Fund 2021-2025 PV • Invest in key infrastructure • Develop PV on council roofs Early adopters LDF • Consult on LDF policies • Support community projects 2016-2020 Demonstration 2012 - 2015 Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
- 24. Commercial deployment potential • PV • 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels • 3,200 non-residential buildings • Solar water heating • 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of buildings • Heat pumps • 200 or 3% of buildings • Wind • For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines • For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23
- 25. Vision for commercial delivery pathway • Investment opportunities are clearly identified • Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1 • Benefits of growth agenda are articulated • Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community • Public sector is facilitating investment • Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty • Engaging in constructive dialogue with community • Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
- 26. Vision for commercial delivery pathway • Investment is flowing, projects being developed • Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development potential • Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly • Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements • Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
- 27. Vision for commercial delivery pathway •LDO supporting PV in PV city •zero carbon homes •anchor loads connected Bio •AD projects developed •ASHP widely used in •Rent-a-roof schemes ASHP commercial buildings PV •Develop PV on council Mainstream roofs 2021-2025 •Demo projects backed Bio by RHI Early adopters •Demo projects backed 2016-2020 GSHP by RHI Demonstration 2012 - 2015 Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
- 28. PV deployment potential Return on 5MWp PV Programme £9,000,000 £8,000,000 £7,000,000 £6,000,000 £8,000,000-£9,000,000 £7,000,000-£8,000,000 £5,000,000 £6,000,000-£7,000,000 £4,000,000 £5,000,000-£6,000,000 £3,000,000 £4,000,000-£5,000,000 £2,000,000 £3,000,000-£4,000,000 £2,000,000-£3,000,000 £1,000,000 £1,000,000-£2,000,000 Net Present Value £0 £0-£1,000,000 -£1,000,000 -£1,000,000-£0 -£2,000,000--£1,000,000 -£2,000,000 5.0% 6.0% Discount Rate 3,500 7.0% 4,000 4,500 £/kWp PV System Cost Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27
- 29. Wind deployment potential Return on 5MW Wind Programme £5,000,000 £4,000,000 £3,000,000 £4,000,000 - £5,000,000 £3,000,000 - £4,000,000 £2,000,000 £2,000,000 - £3,000,000 £1,000,000 - £2,000,000 £1,000,000 £- - £1,000,000 Net Present Value -£1,000,000 - £- £- -£1,000,000 6% 8% Discount Rate 1000 10% 1250 1500 £/kW Wind Capital Cost Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28
- 30. What will the pathways look like or include? • Compelling vision of what can be achieved • Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation • Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment • Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector • Leading county where people choose to invest • Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted • The public sector takes the lead • Project plan for shared decision making Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29
- 31. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives Discussion Points Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 30
- 32. What will the commercial pathways look like? 1. What investment conditions are required for the private sector to invest? 2. How should the growth agenda be used to facilitate RE schemes? 3. What is needed to enhance or extend existing low carbon energy schemes? 4. How should the commercial sector partner with the public sector and local communities to deliver greater RE capacity? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31
- 33. Thanks Duncan Price Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32