![Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
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designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/crifpresentation15nov2011combined-111116055619-phpapp02/85/CRIF-Presentation_15th-Nov-14-320.jpg)
CRIF Presentation_15th Nov
- 1. Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework CRIF – why now? Sheryl French, Delivery Manager This project is being developed as part of the Climate Change Skills Fund. The fund is managed by Sustainability East on behalf of Improvement East #crifcambs
- 2. Why the CRIF? CRIF Project 2019 £6b 1992 2000 2011 2020 <2031 The Earth Summit, Rio Kyoto Protocol EU RE Targets Climate Change Act 2008 e.g. Code for Sustainable Homes CRIF RE Delivery RE Investment #crifcambs Growth in Cambs Clean Tech
- 3. Energy Security & Cost Zero Carbon Policy DECC Renewable Energy Capacity Study Decarbonising Cambridge Cambridgeshire CRIF Project Community Energy This is the Fund focus of today Public/ Community Delivery Investment Private £6 bullion ESCO Public Sector Delivery ? Cambridgeshire Commercial Delivery Sustainable Finance Model #crifcambs www.crif.citizenscape.net
- 4. Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework: How can Cambridgeshire secure £6billion of low carbon energy infrastructure by 2031? Smartlife Centre 15th November 2011 Duncan Price, Director, Camco Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
- 5. The CRIF project so far • Cambridgeshire’s renewable energy baseline has been estimated • Cambridgeshire’s renewable energy potential has been assessed, looking at a range of renewable energy technologies • We have canvassed opinion on how to deliver this potential across all sectors – community, public sector and commercial - through a number of workshops • We have developed delivery pathways to identify how key issues/opportunities can be overcome/developed • We will provide an action plan for each sector to help implement these delivery pathways Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4
- 6. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives What is Cambridgeshire's potential? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 5
- 7. Substantial infrastructure is needed Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 6
- 8. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 7
- 9. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 8
- 10. What is the potential for each pathway? Deployment potential by pathway 1600 1400 Deployment potential (GWh) Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 9
- 11. Renewable electricity potential is very large Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10
- 12. Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 11
- 13. Cambridgeshire is progressing well Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
- 14. Modelling renewable energy deployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - 'high DECC - 'high Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
- 15. Deployment options for renewable energy Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
- 16. S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
- 17. District heating potential lies in Cambridge and Huntingdon Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
- 18. Energy efficiency and renewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
- 19. Conclusions • Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity • There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind • All technologies are needed – heat and electricity • Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031 • Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget • Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18
- 20. Thanks Duncan Price Renewable energy delivery pathways Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
- 21. There are three delivery pathways Community Public Sector Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
- 22. Community deployment vision and potential • Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy • Communities have access to a range of funding sources • Communities are maximising learning from leading practice • Communities are managing energy projects effectively • PV • Heat pumps • 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels • 43,000 or 15% of houses • 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 • £140m capex, £75m NPV houses (14%) • Wind • £640m capex, £150m NPV • 75MW or 30 turbines • Solar water heating • £120m capex, £8m NPV • 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%) • £50m capex, £20m NPV Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
- 23. Community sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
- 24. Community sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23
- 25. Community sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
- 26. Public sector deployment vision and potential • Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets • Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets • PV • Heat pumps • 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels • 8,100 or 20% of houses • 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 • £40m capex, £23m NPV houses (18%) • Wind • £170m capex, £40m NPV • 27MW or 11 turbines • Solar water heating • £44m capex, £3m NPV • 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%) • £10m capex, £4m NPV • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
- 27. Public sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
- 28. Public sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27
- 29. Public sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28
- 30. Commercial deployment vision and potential • Investment opportunities are clearly identified • Public sector is facilitating investment • Investment is flowing, projects being developed • PV • Heat pumps • 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels • 200 or 3% of buildings • 3,200 non-residential buildings • £75m capex, £43m NPV • £720m capex, £165m NPV • Wind • Solar water heating • For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines • 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of buildings • For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines • £9m capex, £4m NPV • Total capex £660m, £45m NPV • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29
- 31. Commercial sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 30
- 32. Commercial sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31
- 33. Commercial sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32
- 34. Vision for community delivery pathway • Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy • Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms • Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation • Communities have access to a range of funding sources • Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types • Gaining access to existing and new funding sources • Communities are maximising learning from leading practice • Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes • Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 33
- 35. Vision for community delivery pathway • Communities are managing energy projects effectively • Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach • Range of delivery options identified • Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 34
- 36. Vision for public sector pathway • Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets • PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres • PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners • Appropriate wind development on public land • Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP • Renewable energy transition plan for each building • Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 35
- 37. Vision for public sector pathway • Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets • Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL • Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding • Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion • Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc. • Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 36
- 38. Vision for public sector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 37
- 39. Vision for commercial delivery pathway • Investment opportunities are clearly identified • Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1 • Benefits of growth agenda are articulated • Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community • Public sector is facilitating investment • Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty • Engaging in constructive dialogue with community • Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 38
- 40. Vision for commercial delivery pathway • Investment is flowing, projects being developed • Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development potential • Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly • Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements • Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 39
- 41. Vision for commercial delivery pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 40
- 42. PV deployment potential Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 41
- 43. Wind deployment potential Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 42
- 44. Along the way…challenges #crifcambs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuXGSEyJjoY&feature=youtube_gdata
- 45. Future Challenges Long term planning – invest to save - to ease on-going and future austerity measures due to rising fuel costs Manage uncertainty – but still deliver.. uncertainty is not a reason to do nothing Trust – stakeholders need to deliver a shared agenda built around greater energy self- reliance in Cambridgeshire. This needs to be coordinated and managed together. Communication and education – The CRIF Project has touched the tip of the ice-berg -more needs to be done to prepare Cambridgeshire residents/businesses to move to the new paradigm – post petroleum man
- 46. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives Case studies Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 45
- 47. Case study: public sector • Sustainable Parish Energy Partnership, South Cambs • Network of local voluntary groups; project secured by SCDC • Objective to reduce energy bills, tackle climate change, build a sustainable future • Organises events and initiatives e.g. energy shows, home energy thermal image surveys, working with local businesses, community energy generating projects • Part-time Parish Energy Project Officer organises programme and provides support • No direct costs, application forms, contracts or binding targets to parish councils • How can we build on this to create more community energy projects? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 46
- 48. Case study: public sector • Decarbonising Cambridge and Carbon Management, Cambridge City • Decarbonising Cambridge Study – forms part of evidence base for RE planning policies • Assessed district heating, biomass, energy from waste, wind, pyrolysis, gasification and anaerobic digestion • Carbon Trust’s Public Sector Carbon Management Plan Programme participation - to cut the Council’s carbon emissions and make ongoing cost savings • Projects form the basis of the CM plan e.g. upgrading boilers, replacing inefficient light fittings, energy awareness campaigns – also renewable energy projects e.g. Renewable Heat Incentive projects Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 47
- 49. Case study: public sector Wind Energy Policy, Fenlands District Council • Wind energy policy developed 5-7 years ago • Policy was successful - willingness of council members to approve wind development given need to reduce carbon emissions • By 2008-2009, impact on landscape led to interim guidance being produced to inform decisions on wind turbine locations • Now takes into account key criteria e.g. character of landscape, proximity of settlements, visual impact, etc Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 48
- 50. Case study: public sector • St Neots District Heating, Hunts • Feasibility studied carried out and detailed feasibility now underway • Funding from ERDF and Cambridgeshire Horizons • Aims to provide local benefit – heat to local businesses; potential extension to housing, colleges, housing and central St Neots, possibly Little Barford Power Station • Public sector led – so lower return is possible with lower cost of borrowing • Local enthusiasm for scheme • Hunts already have some experience of DH feasibility – Northstowe • How can the public sector share this knowledge and experience? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 49
- 51. Case study: commercial sector • Ely Straw Burning Power Station, East Cambs • At 38MW, largest straw burning power station in the world; straw is used as fuel to heat water, creating steam to drive turbines • Total cost £55 million - the company did not expect to show a return on this investment for 15 years • Non Fossil Fuel Obligation contract through to 2013 - electricity purchased at 6p/kWh • This security was reassuring for banks when compared with the value of ROCs, which were not guaranteed - but makes new investment under the RO less likely • Waste heat may be used as energy source for adjacent eco village and Elean Data Campus – what can the public sector do to help deliver this? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 50
- 52. Case study: commercial/community partnership • Coldham Estate, Fenlands • Standalone turbines • Private ownership • Savings: 38.5 GWh/year - 9,000 UK homes 36,000 tonnes CO2 • Community benefits: Revenue under Section 106 agreement for local projects and regeneration; Fund for education • Community input: The Co-operative Group worked closely with local community during planning and site construction • How we can encourage more commercial/community collaboration? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 51
- 53. Case study: community • Gamlingay Eco Hub and Wind Turbine (planned) • Community building owned by Parish Council with community input; funding from Public Works Loan Board or Community Builders fund • Income from FiT & energy export; reduced energy bills; new community centre • Standalone wind turbine proposed, owned by community group; entirely private investment from residents and businesses • 10% net income to community fund for first 15 years of FiT estimated at £200,000 • How can the public and commercial sectors support more projects like this? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 52
- 54. Case study: community • Waterbeach Biogas (Potential) • Community building • Savings: potential generation of electricity and heat for the Emmaus community; home to 30 people who were formerly homeless. Potential savings of £14,000/year • Community benefits: reduction in energy bills; high savings as not on gas grid (currently bottled gas) Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 53
- 55. Case study: community • Upwell Park Solar PV Installations • Individual households • Private ownership • Funding: Property developer • Savings: 68 tonnes CO2 per year; electricity generated covers lighting and cooking for each of the 67 bungalows • Community benefits: free electricity & FiT income passed to tenants of retirement homes • How can we overcome the proposed changes to the FIT to deliver more schemes like this? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 54
- 56. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives The scale of the challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 55
- 57. Energy efficiency and renewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 56
- 58. What could the CRIF help achieve? • Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6bn of investment • Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation • Local businesses are provide goods and services to the sector • Leading county where people choose to invest • Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted • The public sector takes the lead • Action plans for shared decision making Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 57
- 59. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives Action plans Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 58
- 60. Example action plan: public sector Intervention: Using existing buildings as anchor loads Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 59
- 61. Example action plan: public sector Intervention: Using public sector assets for RE generation Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 60
- 62. Thanks Duncan Price Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 61