Delphi method
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The Delphi method is a structured communication technique that relies on a panel of experts to answer questionnaires to build consensus around solutions to a problem. It involves collecting responses anonymously from experts in multiple rounds to refine the answers into a group consensus without direct debate. Experts are selected to provide relevant information and respond to questionnaires about a problem, with responses collated and redistributed anonymously between rounds for scoring until a consensus or solutions emerge.
Delphi method
- 1. WHAT IS “DELPHI METHOD” ? Delphi Method • The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as an interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. • Delphi Method is highly used in Collective Intelligence. Collective Intelligence • shared or group intelligence that emerges from the collaboration, collective efforts, and competition of many individuals and appears in consensus decision making.
- 2. In Delphi decision groups, a series of questionnaires, surveys, etc. are sent to selected respondents (the Delphi group) through a facilitator who oversees responses of their panel of experts. The group does not meet face-to-face. All communication is normally in writing (letters or email). Members of the groups are selected because they are experts or they have relevant information.
- 7. • Define the problem • Give everyone the problem • Collate the responses • Give everyone the collection • Repeat as necessary
- 8. • Define the problem: Identify the problem that you want to work on, writing it down in a clear way that is easy to understand. This can be in various forms , form a questionnaire to a broad and open question. You can work on one problem and you can work on several problems at once. The constraint is usually the bandwidth and expertise of the people in the Delphi group. • Give everyone the problem: Recruit people to the Delphi group. This includes anyone who has been selected to contribute thinking on this project. There is seldom a meeting needed for Delphi work, making it ideal for virtual teams. Delphi thinking can be done with a small group and it can be done with hundreds of people. Around 20 people is fairly common size Send the problem or problems to everyone who is in the group and ask them respond, You will have to handle a lot of feedback, so asking for short bullet-points will make things much easier to deal with than rambling text.
- 9. • Collate the responses: Take the responses that people send back to you and collate these into a single anonyms list of sets of list. Make this as easy as possible for the people to read when you send it back out again, but be aware of casing inappropriate bias. On the other hand, if you are seeking creative ideas you may deliberately mix up the answers. • Give everyone the collation: Send the collation back out to everyone with the request to score each item on a given scale. You may also allow them to add further items as appropriate. Remember to include the original problem at the top of the page, along with instructions on what to do. You can also make responding easier by putting the items in a table with space for the score.
- 10. • Repeat as necessary: The process may now be repeated as many times as is deemed appropriate. If your are seeking consensus and there was a wide range of responses, then this may require several iterations. In particular at least a second round to see how others have scored can be very useful.