The Delphi Method and its Contribution to Decision-Making
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The document discusses the Delphi method, a structured communication process among experts used to gather informed judgments on complex issues through multiple rounds of questionnaires. It emphasizes the advantages of Delphi over traditional group discussions, highlights the importance of expert selection, and describes the iterative nature of the method aimed at reaching consensus. Additionally, it suggests using a straw model to foster deep conversation and clarify underlying assumptions during the process.
The Delphi Method and its Contribution to Decision-Making
- 1. By Dr Little Lin Research 小林研究 制作 Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (Eds.). (1996). Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Bristol, PA: Kingsley. READING NOTES Volume 01
- 2. Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.15
- 3. The Delphi Method and its Contribution to Decision-Making (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, pp.3-33)
- 4. Central to the theoretical assumptions of Delphi method. Knowledge Speculation Informed judgment (wisdom, insight) Various types of information represented as points on a continuum The theoretical assumptions of Delphi method aims at structuring and distilling the vast mass of information for which there is some evidence but not yet knowledge in order to achieve and improve informed judgment and decision-making. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.6)
- 5. Delphi method is an exercise in group communication among a panel of geographically dispersed experts. It allows experts to deal systematically with a complex program or task. It comprises a series of questionnaires sent to a pre-selected group of experts. Questionnaires are designed to elicit and develop individual responses to the posed problems and to enable the experts to refine their views as the group’s work progresses in accordance with the assigned task. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.9)
- 6. Ask: ◦ What kind of group communication process is desirable in order to explore the problem at hand? ◦ Who are the people with expertise on the problem and where are they located? ◦ What are the alternative techniques available and what results can reasonably be expected from their application?
- 7. For subject matter where the best available information is the judgment of knowledgeable individuals, the Delphi method has distinct advantages over traditional group discussions, conferences, brainstorming and other interactive group processes. Delphi allows for (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.21) : ◦ Feedback of individual contributions ◦ Assessment of group judgment ◦ Opportunity for experts to revise views and reassess previous contributions ◦ If necessary, provision of some degree of anonymity for the individual responses
- 8. 10-15 individuals with a homogeneous group Reduction in group error with increasing group side Above certain threshold, including more individuals provides only marginal benefit to the distillation process resulting from the use of Delphi Criteria of selection: ◦ expertise (knowledge and practical engagement with the issues under investigation) ◦ Capacity and willingness of experts to contribute to the exploration of a particular problem ◦ Assurance from experts that sufficient time will be dedicated to the Delphi exercise ◦ Skill in written communication and in expressing priorities through voting procedures Being expert entails the acquisition of experience, special skill in or knowledge of a particular subject, not necessarily to have academic qualifications.
- 9. Round 1 •Q1: pose broad problem, to ask for answers and comments •A1: answers and comments •Feedback 1: analysis and summary of A1 Round 2 •Q2: pose modified problem, by integrating the Feedback1, to invite participants’ reevaluation or revision of their A1 •A2: reevaluation or revision or confirmation of their A1 •Feedback2: analysis and summary of A2 Round 3 and more •Repeat round 2 until reaching a satisfying consensus among participants Explorationphase Evaluationphase In Round 2, it is common to ask respondents to rank items and to establish preliminary priorities amongst them according to the instructions given. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.10)
- 12. The characteristics of the design of the process can have important effects on both the nature of the communication process amongst panelists and final outcomes. Hence, instructions, scales and any other device used to collect experts’ judgments should be properly pre-tested. The same should be done for different ways available to the Delphi team of providing feedback to the experts. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.19)
- 13. Social surveys Nominal group technique Cross impact analysis Policy and decision conferencing Various types of simulations
- 14. In order to be effective, Delphi process needs to facilitate in-depth conversation among experts. This need is even greater for Delphi applications aiming to generate information for problem solving and the exploration of policy options. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, pp.19-20)
- 15. It is suggested to use straw model to promote deep conversation in a Delphi process. A straw model defines the parameters of the task and presents perspective on how the task can be accomplished. It allows better identification of the underlying assumptions and values in operation during the Delphi process.
- 23. Theoretical, methodological and practical issues arising out of the Delphi method (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, pp.34-55) Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (Eds.). (1996). Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Bristol, PA: Kingsley. READING NOTES Volume 02 UPCOMING
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