Estimation techniques and risk management
- 1. GROUP MEMBERS: Purushottam Basnet Email: basnetpiyush@gmail.com BCA 5th SEMESTER
- 2. What is Project Estimating ? Estimating Techniques Pure Expert Judgment Historical Data Wideband Delphi Source line of code(SLOC) Function point(FP) Use case point Story point Tree-Point Estimating/PERT Other techniques Introduction to Risk Management Importance of SE Risk Management conclusion 2
- 3. Estimate : A quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome. Project Estimating : The act of creating a quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome. Estimation Process : ◦ Estimate Activity Resources ◦ Estimate Activity Durations ◦ Estimate Costs Key Roles in Project Estimating • Project Manager • Estimators • Program Management • Senior Management/Project Sponsor • Customer 3
- 4. Pure Expert Judgment Historical Data Wideband Delphi Source line of code(SLOC) Function point(FP) Use case point Story point Monte Carlo Constructive Cost Model(COCOMO) Test case point(TCP), etc 4
- 5. It is mainly base on the expert knowledge One or more expert in both software development and the application domain use their experience to predict software cost. Process iterates until some consensus is reached. 5
- 6. Estimation by analogy o Applicable when other projects in the same application domain have been completed. o New projects can be estimated by analogy with the completed projects. PORBE(Proxy Based Estimating) : PROBE is base on the idea that if an engineer is building a component similar to one he built previously, then it will take about the same effort as it did in the past. o A formula based on linear regression is used to calculate the estimate for each task from this history. 6
- 7. Wideband Delphi is a repeatable estimation process because it consists of a straightforward set of steps that can be performed the same way each time. 7
- 8. Used to measure the size of a software program by counting the number of lines in the text of the program’s source code. We need to divide the problem into modules, and each module into sub modules, and so on until the sizes of the different leaf-level modules can be approximately predicted. Two major types of SLOC measures : ◦ Physical SLOC is a count of lines in the text of the program’s source code including comment lines. ◦ Logical SLOC attempts to measure the number of executable “statements”(e.g. in C-like programming languages is the number of statement-terminating semicolons). ◦ E.g. KLOC i.e. 1,000 lines of code. 8
- 9. Function count measure functionality from user point of view. The base of the function count is what the user requests and what he/she receives in return from the system. Quantitative(Objective) measure and industry data is available as basis for comparison. 9
- 10. 10 An estimation method that provides the ability to estimate an application’s size and effort from its use cases. UCP analyzes the use case actors, scenarios and various technical and environmental factors and abstracts them into an equation.
- 11. A story point is a relative measure of complexity instead of effort(hours etc.) of a user story in Agile estimation and planning. If the second story is twice as complex as previous one, we give it a value of twice points. 11
- 12. More sophisticated from of the range estimation techniques. 3 separate values of the estimation are derived : optimistic, pessimistic and most likely. Helps to normalize the subjective data. Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) 12
- 13. Monte Carlo : It is base on the generation of multiple trials to determine the expected value of random variable. Test case points : Estimates the size of testing projects using test cases as input. 13
- 14. COCOMO(Constructive Cost Model) : ◦ The Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) is an procedural software cost estimation model developed by Barry W. Boehm. ◦ COCOMO applies to: Organic mode(2-50 KLOC) Semi-detached mode(50-300 KLOC) Embedded mode(over 300 KLOC) 14
- 15. Risk : Any anticipated unfavorable event or circumstances that occur while the project is underway. If the Risk become true : ◦ It can hamper the successful and timely completion of a project. Therefore, it is necessary to anticipate and identify different risk. Risk Management : Reducing the impact of all kind of risks that might affect a project. 15
- 16. Addresses complex software systems Focuses projects on critical risk items Provides techniques for handling risk items Reduces software cost by reducing rework : ◦ Usually 40-50% of software costs 16
- 17. To manage the risks we need to establish a strong bond between the customers and the team members. A strong base about risk management would help a great deal in tracking the risks Software metrics and tools can be developed to manage the risks. Risk necessarily need not be negative and it can be viewed as an opportunity to develop our projects in the better way. 17
- 18. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR PATIENT LISTENING & INTERACTING… 18