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The future of Communication Technology.
What will Communication Technology look like in 2022?
By Brian Lewis
http://www.slideshare.net/bklewis55/final-project-by-brian-lewis-for-comm-tech
Computers (Electric) have come a long way since their invention. During the
1980’s, computers went from Terminal access to a Mainframe, to Personal
Computer (PC’s). Since then, computers have continued to advance at a rapid
rate. In the future, more people will be able to access their personal information
in the “Cloud”. With Apple I Cloud, you can access all of your personal
information from any apple device such as the new Apple Mac Pro Air or your
Apple I Phone. All of your information will be stored on servers. You will no
longer have to worry about backing up all of your information, all the time. How
many times in the past has someone lost all the files because of a Personal
Computers Crashing?
Social Learning Theory/Social
Cognitive Theory
The Social Learning Theory is defined as how people learn from the behaviors
of others. TV and the internet are power tools for learning by observation. For
example, if a home owner has a slow leak in the bathroom sink, he can call a
plumber or fix the faucet himself by watching a plumber on YouTube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YneOjcOnrw4
Gratification Theory and TV's of the Future
The Gratification Theory was developed by Katz in the 1970’s. This theory is
defined by people who want and need Communication Technology to fulfill their
personal need for pleasure. This is important information for companies that
build TV’s such as Sony, Samsung and LG. A more specific example of this
would be customers who purchase a TV with a 42 inch or larger screen.
Clearly a family TV that is 60 inches wide is used for family pleasure and
gratification. In the future TV’s will have everything you need for entertainment.
TV’s of the future will become Smart TV’s. Smart TV’s will be used for watching
movies (in 3-D), news, Video Phone, Video Arcade, and as computer. By the
year 2022 more than likely the majority of America will own a Smart TV.
Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation Theory was developed in the 1960’s by Everett Rogers.
There are five steps to this model, this is an example of how it works.
1. Knowledge- You just found out that Apple released the new IOS7 phone.
2. Persuasion- How do you feel about this new product? Good or Bad.
3. Accept or Reject the innovation. Will you go buy it? Are you motivated enough to buy?
4. Implementation – You go and buy the Apple IOS7 Cell Phone.
5. Confirmation- The IOS7 is met or exceed you expectations.
In this example, if Apple had met the customer’s expectations than the they are more likely to
have a loyal customer for years to come. The balancing act for corporations is sell a new
product, without over selling it. If product was hyped up but did not exceed your expectations
than they lost a loyal customer.
Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations
Apple new iOS 7 Google Nexus 4
Communication Technology Companies such as Apple and Google will
compete against each other to create the most innovative communication
technology ever. More than likely only a small segment of the over all
population will rush to buy the newest phones from Apple and Google.
The few that do will help to move the technology forward, so that majority
will use this technology. This is an example of Critical Mass Theory. This
communication technology will continue to improve well beyond 2022.
1980’s Cell Phones
Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate
Early Adopters Innovators
1st Group of people to buy new product
Early Majority
2nd Group of people to buy new product
Late Majority
3rd Group of people to buy new product
Laggards
Final Group of people to buy
new product
When the PC came out in the early 1980’s Moore Innovation model was used. Very few
people actually bought a new PC computer. It is important to note that without the Earl
Adopters Innovators and Early Majority companies such as IBM would not have made
enough money to cover their operating expense and would have sell new products at a
loss. The new 3-D TV currently being sold now follows the Moore’s Innovation Rate
Theory. 3-D TV’s would fall into the Early Majority . 3-D TV are new but are not the
Media System Dependency Theory
Is the relationship between the user and the Media that they are using. For
example the “Cable Company”. Most of us use Cable TV but our needs or
priorities, are different from the cable company. Six dimensions make up Media
Systems Dependency Theory.
1. Social understanding, (learning about your environment)
2. Self Understanding, (know yourself)
3. Action Orientation, (understanding specific behaviors)
4. Interaction Orientation, (understanding behaviors of others)
5. Solitary Play, (providing entertainment to yourself)
6. Social Play (Media use for social interaction, like Facebook)
The Theory of the Long TailPopularity
HEAD
Long Tail
Products
The Long Tail Theory explains why rating of popular TV
shows and movies would be considered a failure in years
past. This is because people had less choices of media in
years past. Today, with cable TV and the internet, people
have a variety of programs which limits the amount of
viewers because of the variety of Media. This also applies
to traditional TV news networks such as ABC, CBS and
NBC. Twenty years ago they were dominating the news.
However today they still dominate the overall rating, but they
are much lower due to CNN and Foxnews.
Education in the Future will help drive
Communication Technology
“As more and more of the work in a society occurs online, it becomes possible
to engage more and more learners in "teleapprenticeships." These are formal
educational frameworks that engage people in learning through their remote
participation in ongoing work settings.” (James Levin University of Illinois 2002).
The Umbrella Perspective
The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology stems from Everett M
Rogers and Sandra J Ball Rokeach, writings on communication technology.
Rogers defined communication technology as “The hardware equipment,
organizational structures and social values by which individuals collect, process
and exchange information with other individuals(Grant and Meadows 2008).”
Ball Rokeach, suggests that “communication media can be understood by
analyzing dependency relations within and across levels of analysis, including
the individual, organizational and system levels.” She also identifies “three
systems for analysis: the media system, the political system and the economic
system (Grant and Meadows 2008).” The hardware is the physical equipment
related to the use of the technology. Software is defined as the information
manipulated by the computer as well as the instructions used by the computer to
manipulate the data (Grant and Meadows 2008).
Sources
http://www.google.com/search?q=technology+of+the+future&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=EpD6UaCaFLGq4AOk4YH
oCg&sqi=2&ved=0CE4QsAQ&biw=1366&bih=639
http://www.google.com/nexus/
http://www.google.com/search?q=future+tv+2020+pictures&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=5xz
8UfHFGtGt4AP2wIG4BA&ved=0CCoQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=639
http://www.google.com/search?output=search&sclient=psy-
ab&q=picture+of+family+watching+tv&oq=picture+of+family+watching+tv&gs_l=hp.3..0j0i22i30l4.2039.17440.1.17928.44.35.2.0.0.3.
2197.17466.6-1j7j1j3.12.0....0...1c.1.23.hp..33.11.11345.GKYNdfA-
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-
ab&q=Personal+computer+in+the+1980&oq=Personal+computer+in+the+1980&gs_l=hp.3..0j0i22i30l3.791.7552.1.8020.16.12.0
.0.0.3.1923.11392.6-1j3j4.8.0....0...1c.1.23.psy-
http://techland.time.com/2012/08/13/the-future-of-personal-computing-cloud-connected-screens-everywhere/
http://www.apple.com/icloud/ www.apple.com
http://www.apple.com/macbook-air/
http://www.google.com/#output=search&sclient=psy-
ab&q=Picture+of+IBM+Mainframe+from+1980%27s&oq=Picture+of+IBM+Mainframe+from+1980%27s&gs_l=hp.3...1008.11937.1.
12715.36.31.0.0.0.3.1875.24347.6-
http://www.houzz.com/ideabooks/2242148/list/How-Smart-TV-Will-Change-Your-Living-Room
http://wikicommedia.wikispaces.com/Umbrella+Perspective
http://faculty.education.illinois.edu/j-levin/2020-vision.html
http://www.google.com/search?biw=1518&bih=714&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=pictures+of+long+tailed+tiger&btnG=#biw=1518&bih=714&tb
ch&sa=1&q=pictures+of+tiger&oq=pictures+of+tiger&gs

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Final Project by Brian Lewis for COMM TECH 303-50 INTRO TO COMM TECH