Fjord trends 2013

Thank you.
2013 Trends

What will the key changes be in business
and design during 2013, and what should
you do about it?

Slide 1 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential

AN INTRODUCTION
At Fjord we work across multiple domains that are As usual, the trends point at some recurring
going through major transitions – and the work themes: for 2013 the following weave their way in
always involves an element of “new.” A new and out of our forecasts:
platform or technology, a new business That mobile is still changing everything – if
proposition, or new target users. We work at the anything faster, and now including new ways of
front edge of mainstream, where innovation meets working.
mass-market appeal. The constant presence of That personalisation will be a hot topic for success.
“new” in our work feeds our curiosity, and makes
That data and the success of new systems are
exploration a necessity.
tightly bound together.
So we constantly think about what tomorrow will
bring. At the end of the year we ask teams at And as ever – for truly great service design - people
come first.
Fjord to offer their predictions on the major trends
that will impact businesses and society in the year We hope you find our 2013 trends interesting,
to come. We know that trends can both inspire provocative, inspiring, and importantly, actionable.
and worry those responsible for shaping the next If you want to delve deeper into our thoughts on
wave of products and services. So we've also tried what you should be doing to stay ahead of the
to give some clear advice that will help both curve, please reach out for a customized
designers and business leaders understand how to presentation by Fjord on the trends that will have
interpret the opportunities that lie ahead. the most impact on your business.


#1
PEOPLE ARE The single biggest source of digital disruption
over the past decade has been people – the users
of technology themselves.

RUINING Access to technology has made it possible for
anyone with an idea, a vision and determination to

EVERYTHING
build a service that circumvents traditional
businesses.
And the platforms that people use to trade with
for traditional businesses one another are far richer than any single business
could build.


#1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING for traditional businesses

This trend began with user-generated content. The first

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
wave was well underway by 2000 with Napster and
2007 Blogger.
YouTube’s Now, 80% or more of the content consumed online is
bandwidth
equaled that of user-generated. This has caused massive disruption
the entire internet across all the content creation and publishing industries,
in 2001 from broadcasters to newspapers to the music industry.
But the emergence of new business models that sit
between traditional ownership and illegal exchange (see
our trend, ‘Access is the New Ownership’) suggests that
2011 the area is as much an under-exploited opportunity for
AirBnB saw 500% businesses as a potential threat to their livelihood.
growth in nights
booked 2011.

The past few years have seen a dramatic upswing in

THE NOW

peer-to-peer services, which has begun to disrupt several
industry verticals including travel and transportation.
Services like AirBnB, Getaround and Lyft have
understandably caused much alarm amongst traditional
businesses, which has contributed to political action in
2012 some areas and raised the possibility of regulation.
Lyft, Sidecar Uber
were each fined
Peer-to-peer funding platforms like Kickstarter and
$20K by the CPUC Indiegogo have also begun to disrupt the way that
for alleged public businesses are created and grown, bypassing the
safety violations traditional investment framework. While these platforms
are facing their own challenges, Kickstarter's funding
success rate is far higher than many industry experts
2012 predicted, at around 45% on average and as high as 70%
Crowdfunding is in the top category.
expected to reach
$500 million in 2012,
up from $33 million
in 2010.



Peer-to-peer services will continue to grow, in areas of

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
finance and personal services as well as the segments in
2012 which they are already substantial players. Traditional
Etsy’s sales have businesses will continue to try to arrest this growth
grown around 69% through legislative or political action, but the startup
Year-on-Year community has come to see these kinds of challenges as
2010-11 and 2011-12.
a badge of honour.
This disruption will be joined by a third wave, in the area
of peer-to-peer manufacturing and distribution. This wave
2013 began long ago with resale and exchange platforms like
Staples will launch
Easy3D, a 3D printing
Ebay and Freecycle, but it has been transformed through
service available to all craft-focused peer-to-peer platform Etsy.
its customers in the Looking further, Fjord anticipates this peer-to-peer
US.
manufacturing revolution to crest as 3D printing becomes
accessible to everyone. We are already seeing movement
in the creation and publication of peer-to-peer 3D
printing plans: although fraught with legal difficulty, we
2013 expect this movement to gather momentum in 2013.
Car sharing is
rapidly growing in
the UK and EU,
with Whipcar
about to close a
round of funding

2013 2012
Makerbot’s TaskRabbit
Replica 2 will be announces
available from marketing
January 2013 for partnership with
less than £1800. Gap in December



If you can't beat 'em, join 'em: shutting down peer-to-

FJORD SUGGESTS
peer services through legislative action is unlikely to be
productive in the mid-term. Instead, traditional
businesses will need to find new ways to remain
competitive.
Explore new business models that bring traditional and
P2P players together through partnership or acquisition,
extending the traditional business' value and the peer-
to-peer service's reach.
Well-established brands can facilitate peer-to-peer
engagement in relevant areas to extend their brand
value and customer relationships.
Old-fashioned and controlled branding and marketing is
not effective anymore. Upgrade your brand to ensure
interactivity and digital are in the core brand DNA,
encouraging – not fighting – feedback and peer-to-peer
engagement.


#2
I BELONG The past year has seen a massive rise in the number of
organisations gathering personal data from their users. There’s
also been a growth in user awareness of data collection issues,

TO ME mainly in Europe rather than the US.
As users become more aware of what can be done with their
The personal data battlefield information, they are beginning to demand access, and real
value, in return for their data.
The data exists in two forms:
•  Aggregate information, in which anything that identifies the
individual is stripped out, enabling businesses to show
broader trends and comparisons.
•  Individual information, which is tied to the specific person.


#2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield

Online retailers and services like Amazon, Google and
2007

THE PAST
Facebook have been gathering user behavioural data for
Netflix launches the years. Aggregated data drives recommendations engines,
Progress Prize,
$1,000,000 to anyone
and personal data drives targeted marketing and
who can improve their advertising.
recommendation
engine.
The argument around use of personal data intensified during

THE NOW
2012. Notable examples include the Facebook class action
launched by Austrian law student Max Schrems, the pending
EU legislation it has influenced, the argument between
2010 advertisers, service providers and users around recognising
Nike+ GPS app Do Not Track requests, and the ongoing discomfort amongst
launches, enabling users - some surveys have indicated that users even believe
runners to track
their data on iOS.
that advertisers on Google's platform know their home
address.
In service terms, we have seen that misuse of information has
immediate and severe impact on relationships - when
Facebook began transparently posting all the articles we
read through their apps, usage of these publication apps
dropped like a stone almost overnight.
The fact that there are so many alternatives available for
2011 virtually any service means that users are increasingly walking
Citibank launches away from experiences that they find creepy or
iPad app with data uncomfortable, taking their business elsewhere.
enhancements.
Finally, targeted advertising is less effective than true
advocacy in building profitable relationships. Advocates
spread the word to their peer networks, where it is far more
2012 likely to be heard than from the brand or business itself.
Scandinavian
operator Three
makes the mobile
bill visual and
transparent



EU legislation in 2013 will have an impact. Whether its rulings will

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
be immediately enforced is a legitimate question, but affected
2012 businesses certainly need to start thinking about a course of
State Farm Ford action immediately.
team up to gather At the very least, 2013 will see dramatic growth in user
actuarial data direct awareness around their data, and potentially also a series of
from the vehicle.
tools aimed at helping normal people manage and control who
sees their data, when and how.
As the proliferation of service players continues, particularly as
we see more and more traction for over-the-top players in
verticals like personal finance, striking the right balance between
2013 data gathered and value delivered will become increasingly
Ubuntu, Mozilla,
critical to the success of many large businesses, notably banks
Tizen OS released. and insurance companies.
Fjord also expects the wave of data visualisation to continue to
grow, driving value and building relationships between
individuals and those who help them to extract value from their
own behaviours.
Finally, three new mobile operating systems will arrive in 2013,
and we expect at least some of these to include some level of
2013 personal data management as part of their software.
EU Legislation will

define privacy
terms.

2013
Services like
ReclaimPrivacy,
Untangle, Unroll.me
begin to gather
steam.



Make the most of aggregate data. It can go a long way

FJORD SUGGESTS
to improve your product and customer service without
demanding hyper-personal information.
Work to turn your customers’ data into actionable
insights – for them. Transparency builds trust and lasting
relationships.
Be the one who makes sense of Big Data for the little
guy.
Design for data re-use; Allow data to be exported and
aggregated, not stuck in proprietary silos.


#3
DAWN We’ll soon start to see connected devices infiltrating more
areas of our lives – but this could lead to information
overload for some of us.
OF THE As we are confronted with more data visualisations about
our lives, homes, jobs or health, we are likely to develop

PERSONAL what's been called 'chart fatigue', making it difficult to
extract meaning from data that should be valuable to us.
This will set the scene for what Fjord calls ‘Living Services’
ECOSYSTEM – the point at which individual 'smart' objects interconnect
to form a support network for their owner. This is when a
Connected objects start to take their place - set of connected objects becomes greater than the sum of
right by your side its parts: your ‘personal ecosystem’.


#3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side

In the early days of smartphones, the range of available

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
services was extremely limited, often based on the
capabilities of the device, or on the restrictions of the
2008 mobile service provider.
i0S App Store But since the concept of an app store was taken into the
Android Market mainstream, users have increasingly been building their
launch
own personal app ecosystems made up of whatever they
personally believe is useful and important.
While Apple keeps a tight rein on what's allowed in its
App Store, users in general have far more control over
2011 their software than ever before.
i0S App Store
reaches 500K
The personal ecosystem, developed by the app store
apps

THE NOW
mobile experience, is migrating into the physical world.
The past 18 months have seen the beginnings of mass-
market adoption for a select few connected objects, driven
by the services that make them meaningful. Nike Fuelband
and Jawbone Up are two examples from the wellness
sector, while Nest is a connected home example.
Looking at Kickstarter, the next 12 months should see an
2011-2012 explosion of connected and smart objects spanning a huge
Jawbone Up, Nike+
Fuelband launch
range of technologies and applications.
At the same time, some telcos are beginning to measure
their revenue in terms of account (ARPA) rather than by
device or by single user (ARPU). This means they're taking
steps to combine their views of customer behaviour across
devices and contexts, building a picture that could be used
2012 to create a business and technical infrastructure to support
Verizon launches Living Services.
“Share Everything”



As more and more objects come onto the market, over-

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
the-top data services will begin to form around them to
drive increased value.
2011 The earliest of these are likely to be wellness-driven
GreenGoose launches (like Tictrac), or focussed on finance. In the near term,
the first consumer- however, individual users will still have to engage with
centric sensor kit
multiple services and touchpoints to get the value of
their things. There will also be a rise in single-purpose
objects that foster intimate relationships between
people: one example is the Good Night Lamp, which
makes its debut at CES in 2013.
2012 We are beginning to see a lot of innovation come from
Tictrac enters beta
launch
smaller, crowdfunded players and component
companies. We may also start to see plug-in hardware
that will extend the lifespan of a handset in the next
two years – BTLE technology means that a sensor can
run for a year on a single battery, making these small
devices far more viable than ever before.
The 'battle for the wrist' will hit the mainstream in
earnest in 2013, with a variety of approaches coming to
2011 market focused on everything from health and wellness
Macaw launches on to information and entertainment.
iOS Android

2012
ToyTalk (founded by
ex-Pixar employees)
2013
secures $11.5M in Good Night Lamp
funding to launch at CES



Designers need to increasingly focus on designing for

FJORD SUGGESTS
the glance.
Service-based businesses can help users tie together
elements of their object ecosystem to extract further
value.
Interactions should be segmented into things that are
best done and seen on small dedicated devices, and
things best done on the smartphone that they
inevitably will connect to.
Objects that fit naturally into people’s lives will be the
big winners in this wave, if they can be simple and
appealing while adapting to users’ habits and priorities.


#4
KEEP IT As digital progress marches on, so does complexity.
Ever-increasing volumes of data constantly threaten

SIMPLE
the efforts of service designers to create elegant,
focused, and simple solutions.
But at the same time, more organisations are finding

STUPID that a focus on simplicity can have a transformative
effect on services and businesses alike.
Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles As Albert Einstein said: “Everything should be made
make a comeback as simple as possible. But not simpler.”


#4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback

Simplicity has a long track record of success. Ikea's

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
bare-bones proposition of modern, simple products at
affordable prices has made it one of the world's leading
retailers. Zipcar's straightforward and flexible offer led
PRE-2000 to extremely quick adoption of an entirely new
Ikea, Netscape, transport proposition.
Google
In the digital world Skype was able to gain huge global
market share with an unprecedented proposition
because they made the service incredibly easy to
2003 understand. And every web browser still shows its basis
Skype is founded. in Netscape's simple browser controls, while Google
Since, it has become
search disrupted the search-and-portal world with its
the largest
international voice ultra-minimalism.
carrier. Other examples include Amazon’s One-click shopping,
and the Apple Touch iOS, which revolutionised
mainstream mobile interaction by taking it from indirect
to direct response.

Some users have started to complain that they feel
THE NOW overwhelmed by the omnipresent digital world.
2010 ‘Slow Living’ and ‘Slow Food’ were just two examples of
Slow Living lifestyle the backlash against our high-velocity digital lifestyle.
and philosophy Now we are also seeing that single-purpose apps and
brand founded
services are gaining ground, feeding a desire for
simplification.
Examples include how Square created a $3 billion
2010 company in under three years through simplification of
Square launches in
January. Less than 3
the bureaucratic process of becoming a credit-card
years later, the merchant. Or how Bank Simple has changed the
company is valued conversation in the banking sector.
at $3 billion.



As personal ecosystems grow, so does the

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
challenge. We will need to make meaning of more
2012 data from more sensors, public, private and
Misfit Shine, the
quarter-sized corporate, and the simplest solutions will continue
personal activity to win.
tracker, announced to
critical acclaim. Leaders in simplification will continue to disrupt
and transform. As choice and options multiply,
solutions and companies that can guide users
through the mess will have an opportunity to
become trusted advisors.
2012
Dropbox grows to
over 100 million
users worldwide

2012
PayPal announces
reorganisation
around the
principle of
Simplicity



Focus on what can be removed rather than what could

FJORD SUGGESTS
be added. Make sure every single feature, element, and
interface drives real value for the user.
Be ruthless about prioritization. Bravely go to the pain
threshold that separates “extremely simple” from “plain
dumb”.
Use mobile as a primary tool to drive simplicity across
products and services.
Apply the principles of simplicity internally: how could
your teams, your structure, be leaner and more effective?
Take action to simplify internal communication and
ways of working, and this will enable you to reflect that
simplicity outward as well.


#5
REVOLUTION
Personalisation is nothing new in the digital world,
but comparatively few shopping services actually
feel close to the individual.
Fjord expects this to change in 2013, as the online
and offline retail environments continue to merge,
creating a more holistic and immersive customer
experience.

IN RETAIL Mobile payments have definitely been disruptive in
2012, with a huge rise in the number of transactions
made on mobile - but the changes we’ll see next are
The Online/Offline distinction disappears about far more than just mobile payments.


#5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears

Personal service was the promise of the independent

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
local shop for the better part of the 20th century. Even
now, consumers feel deep loyalty to the sellers who
recognise them, get to know them, and help them
PRE-2000 discover the best deals on suitable merchandise.
Local shops, Amazon, We’ve seen these interactions mirrored in the digital
Netflix
world with Amazon's and Netflix's highly-regarded
recommendation engines. Suggestions for shopping
have become the norm in the online world.
2010 As the Internet went mainstream, peer-to-peer reviews
also began to inform shopping, while price-comparison
RedLaser is engines play to our desire to get the best deal.
Guardian's Consumer
App of the Week
A statistic to strike fear into the heart of any retailer: half

THE NOW
of US smartphone users have used their devices in-store,
and more than half of those have gone on to abandon
their in-store purchase.
For smartphone users, the distinction between online and
in-store shopping has all but disappeared.
2010 The mobile payment disruption we saw in 2012 has led to
Starbucks
announces the additional side effect of shared retail spaces in some
partnership with European cities, giving independent merchants
Square
unprecedented access to the purchasing public.
Apple has reinvented the in-store experience,
transforming it from traditional shop to showroom by
eliminating the need to queue at a till. Now that
geofencing technology has opened the door to
2012 completely frictionless payment and location and ambient
Apple launches fully data make it possible to hyper-tailor services, there is a
DIY shopping in US
big field of opportunity and risk.



Fjord believes the key to retail success lies in creating

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
experiences that make customers feel better. A
2012 shopping experience that feels smarter or easier can be
EU chain DM begins more valuable for many customers than simply getting
offering customers e- the best deal.
receipts for in-store
purchases Key factors that ensure success are increasingly going to
be based on recognition, recommendation, follow-
through, and support.
The penetration achieved by new mobile payment
systems, as well as the ready availability of mobile
2012 devices, will kickstart a revolution in in-store customer
CA tests
Facebook Like
service. Shop staff will be equipped with tablets or
hangers in Sao smartphones to deliver improved individual service.
Paolo
Opt-in location based services will help customers find
precisely what they're looking for, when they're looking
to buy, and will enable them to pay on the spot without
queuing. 2013 will see the introduction of frictionless
payment in more markets around the world, with
security and shrinkage challenges arising from this
2012 technology.
Neiman Marcus to Virtual shops will take hold in the physical world, with
equip sales staff
with smartphones grocery aisles on train platforms and social network
ratings on hangers. We will also see QR codes and other
buying methods in more shop windows and restaurants,
opening entirely new revenue streams for some while
extending shopping hours for others.
2013 These changes will see customers move closer to
Tesco to launch effectively managing their shopping lives, in similar ways
virtual grocery at to how recent technology shifts have given them new
Gatwick Airport
powers over their social lives.



Design commerce services that make use of smartphone

FJORD SUGGESTS
sensors and contextual data – camera, gyroscope, time
of day and location.
Design innovative and simple solutions for small
merchants. This is a big group of merchants, yet they are
not digitally savvy at all. Inventory management,
customer relationships, loyalty solutions, digital
storefronts – these can be life-changing services for small
merchants.
Businesses that team up with local independent
merchants and makers (both online and offline) can
drive value within the local economy.
Providing a 'memory' of a customer’s past purchases
can help small and large vendors alike develop the kinds
of relationships only small boutiques traditionally have,
with face-to-face recommendations that are more
effective than digital ones.
Re-imagine the boring things and make them engaging.
As PayPal and Square have shown, even something as
painful as paying can be pretty cool!


#6
ACCESS
We’ve seen seismic shifts in the area of digital distribution
of music, movies and media in every form. Now, as
individuals increasingly consume media across devices,
they expect their purchases to be available on multiple
platforms, no matter what.

IS THE NEW Likewise, in the past we used to project our status and
success through the things we own – the car in the
driveway, the holiday home, our media collections. But

OWNERSHIP increasingly status is now projected through our
experiences and pursuits, and consequently access and
flexibility – rather than traditional ownership – are
What does it mean to own something
in the digital age? growing central to what we crave.


#6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age?

Music was the first industry to feel the bite of P2P

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
sharing from Napster onwards. Next came audio-
visual content (TV and Film), which has been the
2011 topic of much legal action over the past few years.
Megaupload,
Megavideo Timesharing property used to be seen as a slightly
RapidShare receive downmarket way for the less wealthy to access
over 21 billion visits/yr property in desirable areas. In Europe and a few
American cities, short-term holiday lettings began in
the early 00s but didn't begin to catch on until much
later.
2011
Spotify has proved that consumers are willing to pay to

THE NOW
Hulu sees 60%
growth from 2010, rent music if they feel they're getting a valuable service.
with 1.4m paid But this is a totally different model to the traditional CD
subscribers
distribution business, and record labels are still struggling
to get to grips with it.
Yet despite the fears of music industry executives,
statistical evidence continues to show that people who
download and share the most music also buy substantially
more of it.
2012 Though DVD sales continue to dominate, rent and borrow
Spotify grows to
more than 15m active services are on the rise. Services like Rent the Runway,
users, of which 4m Lending Luxury and others have extended this model to
are paid subscribers the fashion industry, and ValoBox and Total Boox are taking
it into publishing. And of course, services like AirBnB,
9flats, Getaround and Lyft are making flat-sharing and car-
sharing mainstream. New entrant Jetsetter is helping to
2012 turn the concept of a luxury second home or family holiday
AirBnB launches Wish on its head. These current shifts show how new forms of
Lists to let users
curate their
ownership are beginning to exert their influence on
aspirations consumer behaviour.



Users will continue to see value in portability. As

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
they possess more devices with which to consume
2010 content, they increasingly expect to be able to
Bag Borrow or Steal
consume that content whenever and however they
combines rental with
private sales of want to.
designer luxury The rise of subscription and streaming services
accessories
has also spawned the beginnings of a 'pay as you
go' mentality among content consumers.
2012 Innovative new services will see content owners
Microsoft files a generate increased revenue based on usage. For
patent for Kinect to
example, Microsoft’s Kinect technology could be
count the people in
a room used to charge for movies based on the number of
people in the room.
Simultaneously, the growing trend of clothing and
accessory rental, resale and swap platforms will
see its peer-to-peer and professional aspects grow
rapidly, as people band together to enable
themselves to pay for what they want to wear, for
only as long as they want to wear it.
2012
Total Boox announces
pay-for-read model
for books

2012
Several car sharing
services in Europe
are growing fast,
and Whipcar is
about to close a new
round of funding



Are you in the selling or the access business? Companies

FJORD SUGGESTS
could design clear access models, like rental, trading, and
leasing, and make ownership a standard “upgrade”
across categories.
What areas of peer-to-peer exchange could you have
permission to mediate, facilitate or add value to?
Include a variety of status-boosting elements in ‘access’
services. For example one-click experience capture for
outdoors adventurers, easy experience sharing through
social media networks, and ‘insight’ sharing for those
who prefer to project their intellectual adventures.
Create an “API for commerce” by atomizing your
catalogue or offering. This could allow third parties to
distribute your content.
There are lots of opportunities for new business models
in publishing. For example, if a customer buys a physical
book, why shouldn't they be able to take a few chapters
along on a smartphone or tablet when they travel?


#7
In recent years we’ve seen a shift away from learning as
something that only happens through pairing teachers with
students in traditional classrooms. Innovations such as learning
via video instruction, or online courses from prestigious
universities, are now available anytime and anywhere to anyone

LEARNING with an Internet connection.
The next stage of transformation is already taking shape. Fjord

GETS believes this will involve highly personalised and adaptive
learning materials. In addition, we’ll see the methods of delivery
move from one-to-many to many-to-one.
PERSONAL Ultimately, this kind of real-time adaptive learning support will
transition into the broader business context. Some of the radical
How being online is transforming
changes we’ve seen in education and learning are set to become
the way people learn
part of our working lives.


#7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn

Most classrooms are still like the classrooms of 100 years

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
2010 ago: a single teacher teaching many students with
The Aspen Institute in classroom props and textbooks. Learning involves reading
conjunction with the as well as a lot of memorisation and practice sheets.
Knight commission
publishes Digital and
While many schools gradually allow students to use online
Media Literacy: A Plan tools, emphasis continues to be placed on memorisation
of Action of facts. Some students find this easy; others are
sometimes left behind. Students with different learning
styles are difficult for instructors to address.
The Khan Academy is a non-profit organisation that has

THE NOW
2011 been hugely successful with its website, supplying a free
Open University online collection of more than 3,600 micro lectures via
reports over 50,000
overseas students video tutorials. Today there are many examples of this on
demand approach to learning.
Massive open online courses (MOOCs) that combine
education, entertainment, and social networking are
growing at an amazing pace. Universities around the world
are opening their virtual doors to remote learning, and
eventually online certificates may translate into some form
2012 of university credits.
Khan Academy has The Open University currently has over 250,000 students,
delivered over 200 more than 50,000 of which are overseas. McGraw-Hill and
million lessons
Coursera have launched huge initiatives to deliver fully
digital course materials to tablet devices.
Many experts predict these changes will lead to the
2012 disappearance of textbooks within the coming decade.
McGraw-Hill reports a
20+% increase in both
attendance and
retention with its
Connect® programme



As the digital model continues to evolve, Fjord

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
anticipates that students will have access to an ever-
2012 broadening array of instructors, enabling them to
Harvard University and personalise their learning and transforming the one to
the Massachusetts many model of teaching forever.
Institute of Technology
found EdX MOOCs without person-to-person experiences that
happen on campus will raise questions about the more
social aspects of higher education, such as the process
of collaborative learning, and individualized support.
2012 At the same time, data mining on student learning
Coursera reaches patterns enabling real-time adaptive curricula suited to
more than 1.7 million individual learning styles and interests will become
— growing “faster mainstream.
than Facebook”
The definition of digital literacy will expand from
merely conducting effective searches and evaluating
the results, to include reading and making meaning
from individual data and new forms of writing or
2012 composition with mixed media.
Human Face of Big
Data is published as a
global snapshot of the
world's transformation
through data.



Big opportunities are emerging to deliver highly

FJORD SUGGESTS
personalised instructional material to students.
Recommendation engines will suggest individualized
pathways for learning from the web.
As the new learning technologies reach scale, all
education service touchpoints will need to be
reimagined as a part of the overall service delivery.
Creating a productive physical, digital, and social
environment will become a critical differentiator for
prestigious institutions entering the space.
Businesses can adopt adaptive learning practices in
the workplace, making the work done by individuals a
part of their personal equity and that of the
organisation. Making this happen will require improved
collaboration tools.


#8
YOU TALKING In many ways, it’s logical that the next frontier for
interface disruption should be the voice.
But prodding and poking objects is something
TO ME? we’ve always done, and talking to thin air has
always been a sure sign of a crazy person. Voice
Exploring new challenges in human-machine services are still not taking off as rapidly as they
communication should.
What will it take to make voice interaction
compelling enough to make people want to
integrate it into their daily lives?


#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication

Companies have been exploring voice input for

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
decades—from the sultry Wildfire virtual secretary to
Apple’s Knowledge Navigator, the promise of voice
control has long overshadowed its reality. Over the
1990 past five years, touchscreen and mobile interactions
Virtuosity Wildfire have become the norm, leading to hugely heightened
virtual assistant
expectations around responsiveness and instant
gratification.

Apple and Google are learning through their

THE NOW
experiments. Siri and Google Voice Search are battling it
2007 out in the smartphone marketplace, with Siri positioned
iPhone introduces
mass market touch
as a helpful assistant with amusing faux-human traits,
interaction and Google Voice Search positioned as a lightning fast
and somewhat geekier expert search-bot. The problem
is that without a solid understanding of the immediate
context and intent of the user, today’s voice services still
come across as either not contextually aware enough –
or simply not intelligent enough in the case of Siri.
Google Now is a contextual dashboard that displays
just-in time relevant information to you based on your
activities across your Google services or accessible
2010 information on your device, such as your calendar. Some
Apple launches Siri
users consistently report that context awareness and
hyper personalisation without explicit permission can
feel creepy.

2011
Google Voice Search
launches



The future will hold not only great voice

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
recognition and interpretation, but as more people
use these systems they will have more data, and
thus be able to more effectively anticipate context
2012 and intent.
Chevrolet adds Siri to
in-car systems
We’ll begin to see new services that listen in the
background with explicit permission and deliver
genie-like wishes for everything - from a casually
mentioned book to the address for a San
Francisco restaurant that reminds us of a loved
2012 one in London - and prompts accordingly for
Nuance announces
Nina™ personal orders or reservations.
assistant with open As systems gain their users’ trust, the next level of
SDK
intelligence could come by integrating with the
data from the apps that reside on an individual’s
device.
2013 will see voice services popping up more
prominently in more contexts—transportation,
2012 healthcare, financial services and education. Voice
Haiku for iPhone integration will become a must-have for
enables medical smartphone and tablet applications, and
professionals to voice-
input health data
voiceprints will emerge as a new kind of personal
signature.
This is a future where the service that wins will be
the one that appears to be the most personal,
responds the most quickly and appropriately, and
2013 simply ‘feels’ the most human.
Microsoft to add
Tellme Natural User
Interface to its family
of products



A large part of online customer self-service activities

FJORD SUGGESTS
will be done with the help of virtual assistants soon.
No business can afford to ignore the voice dimension
for much longer. Designing for voice interactions is a
key component of service design, starting now.
There is a huge opportunity to create value by voice-
enabling the day-to-day tasks of people who benefit
from being hands-free.
While gestural interfaces may come in time, these are
more difficult to implement. Voice interactions are far
more natural, particularly as many mobile devices are
already voice-dominated channels for their users.


#9
THE
The speed of movement to mobile has amazed everyone. But it
has not been matched by the speed with which most
organisations are able to monetize it.
We’ve gone from analogue dollars to digital dimes and now to
mobile cents. This is creating a commercial gulf that is going to
put pressure on cash and funding for many new mobile ventures,
MOBILE simply because the average revenue per user has a clear
tendency to drop when a product is wholly or primarily mobile.

GAP
Into this volatile mix we can now add tablets and 4G in many
markets next year. The search is on for business models and
enablers, and it’s likely some will come from the developing
Business plays catch-up with world.
adoption


#9 THE MOBILE GAP Business plays catch-up with adoption

As the web went mainstream in the 1990s, some

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
commercial success stories emerged quickly
(Amazon, eBay) and some evolved a little later (such
as Google).
PRE-2005 When mobile data emerged, it was seen as a subset
of the connected desktop. But as smartphones have
WAP info services
developed, we have shifted to an increasingly mobile-
first perspective and the minimal engagement of the
early WAP services seems like ancient history.
2010
Eric Schmidt With rising global smartphone adoption, many

THE NOW
announces Google's
businesses are looking at mobile as the primary channel
Mobile First
for customer acquisition and relationship building, with
strategy at MWC
2010 desktop services as secondary. However, in the
developed world, Fjord believes that many of us still
think of these mobile services as extensions of the
desktop service. This limits us to the business models
that already exist. Some iconic mobile start-ups like
Foursquare, Twitter and Instagram still do not have a
viable business model. Facebook has famously seen a
decline in value due to its perceived inability to get to
2012 2012 grips with mobile. Zynga’s average revenue per mobile
PayPal transactions Facebook stock loses
up 195% on Cyber over 30% of its IPO
user is only a fifth of a desktop user’s. And tablets are
Monday 2012 value in 6 months mixing things up further. By the end of 2013, one in four
US adults will own a tablet – it took the mobile phone 16
years to reach that. Some companies are getting it right.
For example, PayPal will process $12bn in mobile
2012 transactions in 2012. Some of the most successful
Citibank puts iPad players in mobile are banks or transaction-oriented
service at the heart players, who have reported that mobile users are among
of its advertising their most profitable customers.
story



In 2013 we are likely to see an intense focus on

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
how to make mobile devices pay for most service
companies. Wallet initiatives will be at the centre
2013 of this, but expect also innovation in mobile
Hardware innovation discovery both from the major platform owners
slows: new phones fail (Apple Store and Google Play) and independents
to excite
like Flurry.
We will see an increase in entirely new services
and business models driven by mobile-first or
mobile-only engagement.
2013
Households in US At the same time, developing countries (notably
and Europe reach Kenya, Brazil and India) have seen massive
an average of 7+ innovation in business models that leverage mobile
connected devices
technology. 50% of Kenya's GDP moves through
mobile, and most Africans experience the Internet
first on a mobile phone. In Kenya, Sudan and
Gabon, more than half of adults use mobile money.

2013
Opera acquired for
HTML 5 skills by OTT
giant

2013
Mobile TV companion
apps go mainstream
(GetGlue, Zeebox),
revenues uncertain



Successful mobile-optimised services must be

FJORD SUGGESTS
focused and elegant. Prioritization and strategic
choices have to be made. This will help you clarify your
offering, focus and strategy.
Think about new customer contexts that might
emerge on mobile – this will expose new business
models and customer acquisition opportunities
Learn from the developing world and apply the
lessons to our higher-tech ecosystems in the West.
Internal organisation must be aligned around the
multi-channel world in order to seize opportunity and
smooth the transition to a new model of customer
interaction. But it’s likely that a lot of money will be
wasted before most companies get there.
Mobile is forcing an atomization of services to fit into
daily life and tasks.
The personal and lush mobile medium demands first-
class design, and if you aspire to have a leadership
position in mobile you will have to focus on design.


#10
As the pace of change in digital continues to
accelerate, people working inside businesses are
under increased pressure to swim in unfamiliar waters.
At the same time, a generation is emerging that has
grown up with digital their entire working lives and

THINK LIKE
are demanding dramatic changes in the way people
work together in traditional organisations. And
startups, the most dangerous competitors of large

A STARTUP
organisations, are unhampered by legacy thinking and
processes.
…and act like one, too
While this is undoubtedly a technology-driven trend,
it is perhaps more difficult to detect than any of our
other Trends for 2013, as there are no services or
devices resulting directly from it.


#10 THINK LIKE A STARTUP …and act like one, too

This trend begins with a legacy from the 1990s: once

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
THE PAST
businesses understood that the web represented a critical
new channel, they began to align their ways of working
around the new technology. Over the years, a
2012 cumbersome and lengthy systems integration process was
Instagram: a team of embedded in many ‘online’ units. This is a blocker to the
13, valued at $1 billion.
'digital first' approach that many wish to adopt. It has also
become commonplace for widely distributed teams to
work together on an overarching set of goals. As the pace
of change has accelerated, coordinating across these
boundaries has grown more and more difficult.
2012 Meanwhile ultra lean start-ups use small teams where
Whatsapp delivers 10 designers, developers and marketing experts sit tightly
billion messages/ day
together and iterate to rapidly create shareholder value.
One example is WhatsApp, which at the time of writing is
delivering 10 billion messages per day, making it a very
appealing acquisition target for 2013.

Innovation is still being blocked by structure. Companies
THE NOW
that are trying to do something new often have to fight
their own organisations.

2012
BBC merges its
Teams have reshaped and clustered geographically, with
broadcast and digital product, design and engineering people all working
newsrooms into one together to innovate more quickly to execute strategy. This
is a massive shift from the platform-focussed teams of the
past. Learning by osmosis is becoming the norm:
conversations and events move so fast now that you need
to be there on the floor alongside the people you're
working with. Although not new, Agile and Lean UX
Methods are now changing the way organisations
structure in order to accommodate design-led thinking.



In 2013 we will see many more teams restructure

WHAT’S NEXT 2013
and re-organise to adapt to digital change, and a
growing demand for engagements that go beyond
the traditional agency or design remit -
mentorship and training for on-site teams;
participation in multi-disciplinary think tanks.
Organisations divided by channel will start to look
very old-fashioned.
We expects to see an acceleration of product
cycles and a close correlation of success and share
price to companies that embrace structures and
processes that allow them to act more like
startups. In addition, Digital Natives will start to
drive the world – in corporations, education, health
and government. In each of these areas people
who have grown up with Google (if they entered
the workforce as graduates in 1998) are now in
their mid thirties and approaching positions of
influence. Agencies and consulting companies will
2013 need to rethink their models too – and be
Digital Natives are prepared to lead clients on what part of their work
starting to drive
company and service is best done on site, and what part remotely.
evolution Consultants and designers who can master this
balance will be the best able to build successful
services with their clients.



While businesses struggle to catch up organisationally

FJORD SUGGESTS
to the demands of the digital world, teaching people
new working methods to help them perform is a
hugely useful activity.
Striking the right balance between physical closeness
and cognitive distance is vital to continuing a healthy
relationship.
Closer working relationships help everyone to spot
opportunity spaces more quickly, and multi-
disciplinary teams are far better equipped to act on
those opportunities.
Startups never stop improving their design. Agencies
and clients need to find new modes of working
together that extend beyond launch to enable the
service to evolve based on real world feedback and
response.


Thank you, and Thank you.
enjoy the year 2013 !

More from Fjord here: www.fjordnet.com
Follow us on Twitter: @fjord


IMAGE SOURCES
http://www.therealtai.com/

http://www.mydigitalfootprint.com/google-doesnt-want-your-identity-it-wants-the

http://junocristi.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/charles-bukowski-11-quotes.html

http://www.springwise.com/transportation/munich-car-sharing-scheme-rewards-journeys-bike/

http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/102/02/

http://www.audiencescapes.org/sharing-development-information-hiva-aids-refugees-sms-texting-crops-prices-

humanitarian-ushahidi

http://www.news4you.gr/2012/09/04/mcdonnell-douglas-fa-18-hornet-launch-rocket/

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Fjord trends 2013

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