hazard profile.ppt
- 1. Course : HSS F363: Disaster and Development Instructor: Mohan Kumar Bera Lecture 7 Date: 19th September, 2022
- 2. What is the impact of Hazard? 12/9/2022 2 @ Mohan Kumar Bera
- 3. What is hazard? Hazard is a natural or human-driven event that could lead to a particular level of loss, damage and disruption A hazard becomes a disaster when it strikes certain elements that are at risk. Elements at risk are attributed by physical location, socio- economic structure and political situation and market and policy Hazard can be natural, biological and social Is hazard = Disaster ? 12/9/2022 3 @ Mohan Kumar Bera, PhD, India
- 4. Hazard profile A hazard profile is a description and analysis of a specific type of local hazard It is based on frequency, duration, and speed of onset of a hazard
- 5. Purpose of hazard profile First to know what hazards exist and where they exist Describes the hazard in its local context Identify those hazards that are most likely to occur and that are most devastating should they occur To plan for or prevent every possible contingency, so most government and other organized emergency management entities will focus their efforts upon those hazards to identify every scenario that could possibly occur within a given community or country as result of its geologic, meteorological, hydrologic, biological, economic, technological, political, and social factors 12/9/2022 @ Mohan Kumar Bera 5
- 6. Why is hazard profiling important? The traditional strategy for hazard planning has been on a hazard-by-hazard basis. It was thought that each hazard was unique and therefore mitigation strategies should also be unique A hazard profile compares the physical processes that all hazards share By comparing the characteristics of hazard events decision makers are able to identify and rank the hazards that should be given the most attention and funding For example, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions all occur with little warning time. Therefore a mitigation and response plan could be created for rapid onset hazards.
- 7. Hazard assessment the actual physical hazards the expected secondary hazards All hazards or understanding specific hazards? Resources may be limited Hazard specific expertise and equipment (capabilities) to address the unique response needs of certain hazards 12/9/2022 @ Mohan Kumar Bera 7
- 8. Hazard analysis Identification methods of hazard profiling Brainstorming : using own knowledge and experience to develop a list of possible hazards and effectiveness Research of the country’s disaster and emergency history Reviews of existing plans Investigation of similar hazard identification efforts in neighboring countries Using map Interview with representatives from different communities and organisations Site visit 12/9/2022 @ Mohan Kumar Bera 8
- 9. Hazard profiling To analyze a hazard, disaster managers must determine exactly how a hazard exists within the specific community or country Each hazard is different in respect to climate, geography, settlement patterns, regional and local political factors. Determine the secondary hazards 12/9/2022 @ Mohan Kumar Bera 9
- 10. Event tree 12/9/2022 @ Mohan Kumar Bera 10
- 11. How to prepare hazard profile? Hazard profile was designed by examining the physical characteristics that natural hazards (Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration by Graham A. Tobin and Burrell E. Montz (1997) Hazard profile has grouped the various hazards into primary and secondary hazards The hazards were classified on physical mechanisms, and temporal and spatial distribution. Geographic area affected- measured in terms of magnitude. Previous occurrences within the state-measured in terms of frequency Duration of event Countdown interval: measured by speed of onset
- 12. How to prepare hazard profile? Primary Hazards include: earthquakes, floods, and wildfires Secondary Hazards include: Landslides, Tsunamis and other human caused hazards To create the hazard profile some generalizations were made about the hazards We need to group the hazards into broad categories to simplify the profiling process For some hazards little information could be found on specific physical processes. Therefore this profile should be used as a guideline rather than an authority.
- 13. How to prepare hazard profile? For example, we grouped all types of landslides into one category, even though the physical processes and impacts of a creep versus an avalanche can be significantly different. However, by addressing landslides as an important hazard, landslide specialists can then create a specific profile for each type of landslide and consequent mitigation plans. For frequency, need to look at the average return period for the hazards Wildfires, floods and earthquakes have historically been the most frequent hazards and happen on an annual basis. Tsunamis and volcanic eruptions are far less frequent. For magnitude, need to use extent of area affected as a gauge of overall power/energy of the event. Deaths and estimated costs are another way to compare magnitudes however, since we grouped hazards into overall categories these assumptions could not be made. Some generalizations need to make for speed of onset and duration of the events. We no need to distinguish between river floods and flash floods or creeps and avalanches. Volcanic eruptions can also vary significantly in their duration.
- 15. Challenges with Hazard Profiling Its easy to compare an earthquake in Japan to an earthquake in California because they are measured using similar metrics However, it is much more difficult to compare an earthquake to a flood to a volcanic eruption as they all have different impacts on society and have varying spatial and temporal distributions In order to accurately rank multiple hazards on one scale certain elements of the hazard become inaccurately displayed or simply left out