![Risk Formula:
• R = HxV
• R = (HxV)/C
• R = [e, s, f, c]
• H is latent, content
wise exist, place as
Coeficient
• R is high if V is high
• V is high if element
at risk is high
• V is high but at the
same time have C
• V and C are two
sided coin](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/vulnerabilityanalysis-yrsecodrr-drh2019-190314075238/85/Lecture-6-Vulnerability-Analysis-6-320.jpg)
Lecture 6: Vulnerability Analysis
- 1. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS Dr. Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron, S.Si, M.T, M.Sc Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada Mailto: dyah.hizbaron@ugm.ac.id Scopus ID: 36450403500
- 2. OUTLINE • Basic Concept on Vulnerability & Element at Risk • Idea of Ecosystem Based Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia • Case Study 1. Kotagede – A physical vulnerability • Case Study 2. Sidoarjo – A social vulnerability • Case Study 3. Sulawesi – An economic vulnerability • Case Study 4. Gunungkidul – An environmental vulnerability
- 3. Learning Outcome • Understand basic concept of vulnerability and element at risk • Develop critical thinking about different types of vulnerability indicators and the scales at which they were developed; • Develop critical thinking about different types of vulnerability
- 4. Human intervention to environment has been ages, the level of impact is varied, local to global Human occupied land, whereas, some of them are prone areas towards natural disaster 1700 1800 1900 2000 20501600 Hunter Gatherer Society Pre-Industrial Society Industrial Society Modern Society? BASIC CONCEPT OF VULNERABILTY & ELEMENT AT RISK
- 5. 1700 1800 1900 2000 20501600 VULNERABILITY HG Society + Natural Law = Vulnerable Society PI Society + Spatial Inequality = Vulnerable Society Id Society + Environmental Impact = Vulnerable Society Md Society + Global Impact = Vulnerable Society Vulnerability keynote: inability, adapt, cope, resilient, shock, stress
- 6. Risk Formula: • R = HxV • R = (HxV)/C • R = [e, s, f, c] • H is latent, content wise exist, place as Coeficient • R is high if V is high • V is high if element at risk is high • V is high but at the same time have C • V and C are two sided coin
- 7. What is Vulnerability? • The degree of loss to a given element at risk or set of elements at risk resulting form the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude and expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total damage) (UNDRO, 1991). • Indication of people’s exposure to external risks, shocks and stresses and their ability to cope with, and recover from the resulting impacts (DFID, 2004; ISDR, 2004)
- 8. Vulnerability is a concept which describes factors or constraints of an economic, social, physical or geographic nature, which reduce the ability to prepare for and cope with the impact of hazards. VULNERABLE AREA There is a potential for an event to occur VulnerableSocial Condition Economic Condition Physical Condition Political Condition Unprecedented Condition
- 9. Formulation of Vulnerability PHYSICAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Vulnerability = Exposure + Resistance + Resilience
- 10. WHAT IS ECO-DRR? ECOSYSTEM BASED DISASTER RISK REDUCTION OR ECO-DRR The Sendai Framework 2015 The Sustainable Development Goals 2015 COP 21 Paris CC Agreement The Lisbon Treaty human-capital management within emergency situation natural-capital management within whole disaster management cycle REACTIVE PROACTIVE Shifting Paradigm TECHNICAL ENGINEERING TECHNICAL & SOCIAL ENGINEERING A MULTILATERAL INITIATIVES
- 11. Case Study 1. Kotagede – Earthquake 2006
- 12. Seismic activity originated from <500km from city centres Surface lithology in Bantul area (Quartenary sediment) had increase susceptibility of the area towards any ground shaking (Setijadji, et al., 2008). Bantul District has potentially high velocity plate movement up to 60 mm/year (Marso et al, 2008). Seismic Hazard Overview
- 13. Introduction • Research Rationale • Why selects Kotagede? • Trending disaster occurrences • Local vulnerability is high • Element at risks varied • Existing countermeasures are minimum • High tourism potentials No Age Sayanga n Bodon Total 1 0 - 14 403 440 843 2 15 - 24 352 232 584 3 25 - 49 698 553 1.251 4 > 50 479 315 794 Total 1.932 1.540 3.472 • Disaster experience: 5.760 death toll, 102.234 injured people, 2.020.788 refugees, 302.868 unit houses destructed (non habitable), 252.909 unit houses destructed (habitable) from 2006 earthquake • The research area is an accumulation well built assets, predominantly settlement with very specific characteristics • Rumah Joglo • Rumah Kalang • Museum • Art Workshop • Narrow street • The research area is a border area among two administrative unit, which entitle for intra- regional coordination
- 14. The research area is an accumulation of element at risk >>> medium to high physical vulnerability indices (Hizbaron, 2012) Physical Vulnerability 1. Market 2. Mosque 3. Tiga Ringin 4. Omah UGM Tourism Graph Decreased!
- 15. Vulnerable Groups? Vulnerable Groups >> Children >> Elderly >> Productive ages Element at risk (1) Urban dwellers Tourists Different vulnerability indices per target groups -Those living in dense settlement -Those visiting as tourist
- 16. Who are Vulnerable? Those who are living/inhabited prone hazard area Those who have less capacity to withstand any disturbance (stress/shock) Those who personally handicapped, discriminated or less access to normal treatment
- 17. Economic Vulnerability? Marginal Economy >> Trade >> Service >> Tourism >> Industry >> Etc Element at risk Small enterprises Medium enterprises Large enterprises
- 18. Physical Vulnerability? Fragile structure : >> Wooden house >> Brick house >> Traditional house >> Tiled roof house Element at risk Traditional house Cultural objects Cultural sites Heavy tiled roof subject to earthquake Brick cement wall subject to earthquake Wooden house subject to fire
- 19. INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (brick – wooden house) Rumah Kalang. Small Alleys – Narrow Street Different length of each alleys have different vulnerability indices
- 20. Cultural Heritage Object. Small Alleys – Narrow Street Urban Heritage At Risk? Traditional structure has different fragility indices with modern structure More than 2 m high wall with strong structure
- 21. Built up area are vulnerable? Rumah Joglo. Small Alleys – Narrow Street Different height wall along narrow street have different likelihood to vulnerability indices
- 22. Types of Vulnerability (1) • Physical Vulnerability • Potential for physical impact on built environment or infrastructure and population • Analyzed per group of construction or structural types • Intrinsic quality of a structure and does not depend on location • Social Vulnerability • Potential impacts of events on groups such as the poor, women, children, elderly etc • Analyzed per population cluster
- 23. Types of Vulnerability (2) • Economic Vulnerability • Potential impacts of hazards on economic assets and processes (i.e. business interruption, secondary effects such as increased poverty and job loss) • Analyzed per sector or per assets types • Environmental Vulnerability • Potential impacts of events on the environment • E.g. hydrologic condition after eruption
- 25. EcoDRR Praxis: Need to Understand your Environment Meeting Points (1) •Identification of meeting points shall be conducted by the community. •However, RS/GIS technique also make it possible to provide such information using high resolution image. •The indicated meeting points will be kept to avoid ambiguous result from community mapping.
- 26. Strong Points for Kotagede Meeting Points (2)
- 27. Research Finding Second Round FGD • They are able to identify vulnerable elements
- 28. Second Round FGD • They are able to identify evacuation routes, meeting points and fire extinguishers Research Finding
- 30. 1m IKONOS – 17 September 2006 @DigitalGlobe 1m IKONOS – 11 May 2007 @DigitalGlobe CASE STUDY 2. SIDOARJO – HOW TO COLLECT DATA SPATIAL TEMPORAL FOR VULNERABILITY
- 31. 1m IKONOS – 05 Januari 2008 @DigitalGlobe 1m IKONOS – 14 Februari 2009 @DigitalGlobe
- 32. 0,5 m GeoEye-1 perekaman 31 Mei 2010 @Digitallobe 0,5 m GeoEye-1 perekaman 30 Nov 2012 @DigitaGlobe
- 33. 0.5 m WorldView-2 @DigitalGlobe 0.5 m WorldView-2 @DigitalGlobe OBSERVE POST ERUPTION GA. SINABUNG Building Footprint
- 34. Medium resolution using unsupervised hybrid-based built-up extraction Medium resolution using change detection process of built-up areas
- 38. • Head of National Agency of Disaster Management Regulation No. 2/2012 on Risk Analysis • Head of National Agency of Disaster Management Regulation No. 3/2012 on Capacity Analysis • 34 provinces, 416 districts (kabupaten), and 98 municipalities (kotamadya). Hazard Losses Capacity Hazard Index (Magnitude & intensity) Exposure Index (Population, Socio- Culture Component) Losses Index (Economic, Physical & Env. Component) Capacity Index (Government, Early Warning, Mitigation Preparedness) Hazard Map Vulnerability Map Capacity Map RiskMap How to conduct Vulnerability Analysis? Case Study 3. Sulawesi – An economic Vulnerability
- 39. Research Result Kota Manado 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Disaster Statistics Kota Manado Flood Landslide Typhoon Earthquake
- 40. Population, Element at Risk and Risk Distribution of Kota Manado Research Result
- 41. Legend Administrative Borders District Borders Sub-district Borders Administrative Capital Province CapitalProvince Capital District Capital Sub-district Capital Topography High Point Shoreline River Periodic River Spatial Structure City Structure System National Center Activity City Center Sub-city Center Environmental Center Power Plant Network Structure Electrical Station Control Stem Power Plant Solar Power Plant Electrical Stem Network Electrical Solar Network Water Resource Network Structure Potential of Groundwater Basin Very High High Middle Small None Transportation Network Structure Last Processing Waste Network Waste Structure Communication Network Structure Communication Tower International Airport Local Jet Special Terminal or port Terminal Type A Relocation Terminal B Container terminal New terminal Railway Station Railway Track Plan Circulation of Island Tourism Main Road Network Primer Road Network Collective Road Network Local Road Network Highway Network Plan Ringroad Network Plan Two Track Network Plan Bridges Plan Bridges Plan Tsunami Evacuation Plan Risk and Spatial Plan of Kota Manado Accumulated spatial structure are at risk area Research Result
- 42. Kota Makassar 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Disaster Statistics Kota Makassar Flood Landslide Typhoon Earthquake Research Result
- 43. Research Result Population, Element at Risk and Risk Distribution of Kota Makassar
- 44. Center of Activity Airport City Center Sub-city Center Environment Center Type A Type B Port International Port Regional Port Local Port Fishery Port Planning Port Subdistrict Borders District Borders Shoreline Water Processing Instalation Drinking Water Processing Electrical Network Electrical Station Control Electrical Power Plant Water gate Telephone controller Cable storage Telephone cable Highway Main Road Local Road Collector Road Planning Road Main Road Planning Local Road Planning Collector Road Planning Monorail Railway Plan Monorail Station Train Railway Plan Pipeline Water Network (Diameters) Main Drainage Lake or Water Water Transportation NetworkCorridor River or Canal Port Type Legend Research Result Risk and Spatial Plan of Kota Makassar Accumulated spatial structure are at risk area
- 45. Research Result Kota Gorontalo 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Disaster Statistics Kota Gorontalo Flood Landslide Typhoon Drought
- 46. Research Result Population, Element at Risk and Risk Distribution of Kota Gorontalo
- 47. Spatial Pattern Planning • Create Polder system for flood management in Bone Bolango River Area • Organizing and developing Oldtown Trade Service area • Organizing Taruna Remaja Park • Preserve Historical and Cultural Area Rice field People ForrestLocal road River Education Green belt and river border Park and open green space Goverment Office Cultural area Settlement Terminal Branch Main Terminal Public Grave Fishery Industry Store Building and industry Shelter Forrest HealthFacilities Trade and services (super block) Trade and services Tourism Area Catchment area Central Market Central Market CBD Fishery port Harbour Pool Research Result Risk and Spatial Plan of Kota Gorontalo Accumulated spatial structure are at moderate risk area
- 48. Research Result Risk Ranking and Spatial Plan at National Level
- 49. Damage Assessment Data NOT VULNERABILITY DATA INPUT FOR VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS TO IDENTIFY ELEMENT AT RISK DISTRIBUTION!
- 50. High resolution of building footprints extracted in a high density area High resolution of building density computed using radius
- 51. Case Study 4. Gunungkidul - Drought Geomorphology: Karst area, alluvial material in some areas. Dry, rare to surface water soure. WIDORO 13% KLAMPOK 15% GUMBENG 7% SUMUR 13%GUBAR 11% KARANGN ONGKO 7% TEMON 8% TLOGOWA RAK 10% KACANGAN 10% JLUMBANG 6% x : 431006; y ; 9107964 (8º 4’ 10,3” BT & 110º 22’ 25,8”); z = 97 mdpl
- 52. Geography, Geomorphology, Hidrology Social – Economic Adjustment Institutional Empowerment KARST INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLD COLLECTIVE Water issue Drought Local Adaptation • Karst Configuration soluble rock water surface absorbed get into “luweng” minimum water quantity • Sub surface river high spring availability Environmentally vulnerable • Agriculture yet supported • Sumur penampungan air hujan (PAH) • Pemanfaatan embung • Penyaluran air dari mataair • Pembelian sumberdaya air Research Problem
- 53. Piping system accomodate: 1800 liter/day (5hrs/24hrs) Highest point at Temon distributed by 8 public hydrant at 8 RT. Vulnerable towards Water Quantity Spring Mapping: Pego, Bekah, dan Tangis.
- 54. EcoDRR Praxis
- 55. Community Involvement: Water Filtration Information Dokumentasi: Tim KKN – PPM 2014)
- 57. Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction Dokumentasi: Tim KKN – PPM 2014)
- 58. Community Assistance Dokumentasi: Tim KKN – PPM 2014)
- 59. Thank You
Editor's Notes
- #5: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5gjzaq/we-blew-it-0000643-v22n5 https://www.quora.com/Were-people-in-hunter-gatherer-societies-generally-happier-than-modern-people
- #7: http://www.charim.net/methodology/53
- #10: SOURCE NO: 4
- #17: http://wisequacks.org/wp2/?p=1755
- #33: http://terra-image.com/kumpulan-citra-satelit-bencana-lumpur-sidoarjo/
- #34: http://terra-image.com/gambar-citra-satelit-letusan-gunung-sinabung/
- #40: Located in 1°28'29.39” N and 124°50'31.48" E Downstream of Tondano watershed which suffered from severed environmental damage Classified as critical watershed in Indonesia based Decree of Ministry of Environment and Forestry No. 284/Kpts-II/1999 Five rivers passing: Tondano, Bailang, Sario, Malayang, And Tikala
- #43: Located in 508’6’’ N and 119024’17” E Downstream of Janeberang Watershed categorized as one of 15 priority watersheds to be recovered based on Ministry of Forestry Decree No. P.12/Menhut-II/2012 second most eroded watershed in Sulawesi with 734.689 tons per hectare per year Two rivers passing: Jenerberang River in south and Maros river become Tallo Rivers
- #46: Located at the 0028’17” N to 123005’59” E located near Tomini Bay, which off course put the coastal city as the main characteristics Limboto-Bone-Bolango (LBB) Watershed is one of watershed priority based on President Decree No. 2/2015 LBB watershed commonly as many other watershed for urbanized area, experienced critical condition due to improper management and utilization.