How costs affect deployment of low carbon technologies - analysis with JRC-EU-TIMES
1 like897 views
The document discusses using the JRC-EU-TIMES energy system optimization model to analyze the impacts of technology costs and assumptions on the deployment of low carbon technologies in Europe. The model can explore scenarios assessing different technology sensitivities to provide insights for targeting research and innovation efforts. Examples analyzed include the impacts of solar PV costs and the role of geothermal with and without carbon capture and storage. The model results can indicate potentially cost-effective research and innovation investment levels to achieve breakthrough technology performance levels.
How costs affect deployment of low carbon technologies - analysis with JRC-EU-TIMES
- 1. Joint Research Centre the European Commission's in-house science service How costs affect deployment of low carbon technologies - analysis with JRC-EU- TIMES Wouter Nijs Institute for Energy and Transport - Energy Technology Policy Outlook Unit
- 2. • Energy research and innovation R&I are key for achieving a low-carbon transition and a fundamental building block of the Energy Union. • Objective of this research Provide insights for better targeting of R&I efforts by exploring the impact of techno-economic assumptions of low carbon energy supply technologies (in PPT: focus on RES-e and CCS) Introduction and rationale
- 3. Model landscape JRC IET - Energy Technology Policy Outlook Unit (ETPO) Energy System Optimisation (JRC-EU-TIMES) Asset Optimisation Price Taker Models (SPIRIT) Energy Services Demand (GEM-E3) Power System Unit Commitment (Dispa-SET) Weather / Demand Statistical Models 3 Land use & forestry (LUISA, CBM, GFTM) Regional Holistic Global Equilibrium (RHOMOLO) IET model Other JRC Hydrology (LISFLOOD) Global Energy (TIMES-TIAM) BIO- MASS2 WATER- FLEX3 ERIBE- LAND1 1) Project IET/IES/IPTS 2) Project IET/IES/IPTS 3) Proposal IET/IES (tbd) JRCTIMESTRADE
- 4. • Technology rich bottom up energy system optimisation (partial equilibrium) model based on the TIMES model generator of the IEA for EU28, CH, IS, NO + Western Balkans • Designed for analysing the role of energy technologies and their innovation for meeting Europe's energy and climate change related policy objectives • Model owned and operated by the JRC • Model horizon: 2010-2050 (2075) Available at: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reposit ory/handle/111111111/30469 JRC-EU-TIMES in a nutshell
- 5. Objective • Minimise total energy system costs Constraints • Demand and supply balances by country and sector • Capacity limits • Renewable and emission targets • … Energy service demands Resource availabilities and costs Sectoral costs and price proxies (by country, energy carrier, technology) Supply and demand technologies Emissions Techno- economic assumptions Modelling approach Material and energy flows AlignedtolatestEU EnergyReference Scenarios Policies (GHG and energy target, subs.) ETRI
- 6. JRC-EU-TIMES model extensions Improved RES-e potentials Other improvementsModel coupling Recalibration and model updates Coupling with other JRC models Updated biomass potential Updated solar potential with explicit representation of land use Updated wind potential Such as • Monte Carlo runs • Include retrofit options • Include biogas blending New base year 2010+ Explicit representation of insulation options in buildings
- 7. Bioenergy in the JRC-EU-TIMES Potentials • Agriculture (CAPRI) • Roundwood and forestry residues (EFISCEN + now: CBM GFTM) • Waste (Eurostat statistics linked to population and GDP) Scenarios • Differ in land use, agricultural practices, and protected areas. Source: "The JRC-EU-TIMES model. Bioenergy potentials for EU and neighbouring countries." Model result Biomass demand is high and almost insensitive under a 80% CO2 reduction target and the assumption of carbon neutrality. 2050 potentials (PJ)
- 8. Assumptions on energy and climate targets
- 9. • Investing 12 B€ per year in PV R&D could be cost- effective if this reduces PV cost to 450-500 €/kW, cet. paribus • PV cost is vital for PV deployment and for the energy system cost in a cost optimal low carbon energy system How do costs affect PV deployment in EU28 ? SET Plan Conference 2015
- 10. Every 100€/kW PV cost reduction adds 30GW in 2030 and 85GW in 2050
- 11. A bigger exercise: 50 scenarios !
- 12. The case of Geothermal: CAPEX evolution and share in power production
- 13. No CCS leads to double Geothermal generation Geothermal power production in 2050 (TWh) Most countries still well below 50% of the economic potential that is based on 100 EUR/MWh LCOE
- 14. Further demonstration of the outputs • Electricity production in TWh • Installed capacity in GW • CAPEX requirements in EUR billion • Energy related CO2 emissions in Mt for scenarios: CAP, NOCCS, NOPEC + technology sensitivities
- 15. Conclusions (1) • Technology interactions, sensitivities and possible future investments are valuable outputs for targeting of R&I efforts • Capital intensive technologies are more sensitive • Technology interactions and competition are crucial, even in a low carbon energy system • Key technologies exist for cross technology sensitivity within the power sector: CCS, Bio-CCS and geothermal. • Without CCS, the indirect use of power (Power2Gas) from variable RES becomes important • Breakthrough levels have been defined for ocean and CSP
- 16. Conclusions (2) • Using savings in the total energy system cost as a proxy for a possible R&I budget is powerful although partial: • Ceteris paribus (other techs don't move) • No link between R&I and technology improvement. • When results of JRC-EU-TIMES were deviating from isolated cost analysis, the cause was often different commodity prices • Uncovered but on the wish list: • Extend analysis to demand technologies and storage • Combinations to overcome single technology sensitivity.
- 17. Thank you for your attention! • Wouter.Nijs@ec.europa.eu • +31 22456 5481 1.Savvas.Politis@ec.europa.eu 2.+31 22456 5037 3.Pablo.Ruiz-Castello@ec.europa.eu 4.+31 22456 5150
- 18. Stay in touch JRC Science Hub: ec.europa.eu/jrc Twitter: @EU_ScienceHub YouTube: JRC Audiovisuals Facebook: EU Science Hub – Joint Research Centre LinkedIn: Joint Research Centre (JRC) - European Commission's Science Service
- 19. • Assessing the impacts of technology improvements on the deployment of marine energy in Europe with an energy system perspective • Assessing the role of electricity storage in EU28 until 2050 • Decarbonised pathways for a low carbon EU28 power sector until 2050 • The effect of limited renewable resources on the electricity generation in a low- carbon europe • How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system • Improved representation of the European power grid in long term energy system models: case study of JRC-EU-TIMES • The JRC-EU-TIMES model - Assessing the long-term role of the SET Plan Energy technologies • The JRC-EU-TIMES model. Bioenergy potentials for EU and neighbouring countries • Supporting the deployment of selected low-carbon technologies in Europe: Implications of techno-economic assumptions. An energy system perspective with the JRC-EU-TIMES model Recent publications