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Human Capital: Value and Values
Jonathan Low
Predictiv
November 18, 2013
1
Our Most Valuable Assets Walk Out the Door Every Night
2
Organizational value increasingly depends on
intangible rather than tangible assets like
property, plant, and equipment
• In Predictiv’s research on 20 industries, between 50
and 90% of corporate value is created by
intangibles
Reputation Is An Intangible Value
3
Image and Likeness
4
Influence
5
Intangibles – Drivers of business performance not captured by
audited financial statements;
> Management
• Leadership
• Strategy Execution
• Communication and Transparency
> Relationships
• Brand
• Reputation
• Alliances and Networks
> Organization
• Technology and Processes
• Human Capital
• Workplace Organization &
Culture
• Innovation
• Intellectual Capital
• Adaptability
• Environment/Sustainability
6
Dominance
7
Perceptions of Ownership – and Performance - Have
Shifted Edelman Trust Barometer
8
Look and Feel
9
The Smile Curve of iPhone Production and Value
Yuqing Xing, Asian Development Bank
10
More is More
11
Apple’s Bigger than Exxon, Coke, McDonalds or Disney
12
2013 Disclosure Trends: Perception Formed Through
Interaction
Common Practice
Communication
One way communication
Single co. progress report
Voluntary reporting
Standards
Verification as option
Ad hoc standards
Corporate boundary definition
Emerging Trend
Multi-stakeholder dialogue
Industry benchmarking
Mandatory reporting
Assurance
Global standards
Dialogue set definition
13
Impressions Are Created on Media the Company Does
NOT Control
14
Fare Stories
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Trading Days post
Correlation
with
Adjusted
Stock
Total Positive
Prior Day
Prior 2 Days
Prior 3
Prior 4
Prior 5
Prior 6
Prior 7
Prior 8
Prior 10
Prior 11
Prior 12
Prior 13
Prior 14
Prior 15
Prior 16
Prior 17
Prior 18
Prior 19
Positive revenue stories have a life of about two months. The maximum occurs at
cumulative 17 days stories with stock at 22 days
Messages Have a Persistent Impact on Stock Trading
15
Company Performance on Important Values Contributes to Loss
of Trust in Business Edelman
16
Social Responsibility
Whole Food
Apple
Coca-Cola
Johnson & Johnson
Walt Disney
Workplace Enviro
Google
Coca-Cola
Microsoft
Kraft
Vision and Leadership
Apple
Coca-Cola
Amazon
Google
Walt Disney
Financial Performance
Apple
Google
Coca-Cola
Walt Disney
Amazon
Intangible Ratings Impact Reputation, Correlate With Financial Performance
Data Source: Harris Interactive 2012 RQ Survey
17
Crunch Time
18
0
Importance
1 = not important;
5 = very important
Adequacy
1 = not measured;
5 = very well measured
Intangibles Performance Metrics Are Inadequate for Most Global
500 Corporations
> 81% of respondents stated that their performance measurement system is not well aligned with
their corporate strategies
> Gaps in intangibles measurement are correlated with financial performance measures such as
ROE, 1 & 3-year stock returns, and 5-year sales growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
19
Intangibles Are A Significant Factor in IPO Success
Intangible Performance
(6 were significant out of 18 total)
1. Management Credibility
2. Customer Satisfaction
3. Strategy Execution
4. Effective Executive
Compensation
5. Investor Relations
6. Strong Corporate Culture
Financial Performance
(none significant out of 8 total)
Sales, ROA, cost, market share,
income growth, etc.
Strong in
Both
Strong in
Financials
only
Strong in
Intangibles
only
Weak in
both
20
Case Study – Evaluating Comparative Media Relations Efforts
Among Industry Competitors. This Measures Both Driver
Scores (on left) and Revenue Impacts (on right)
Communications About:
Client
Score
Comp#1
Score
Comp#2
Score
Potential
Impact (%)
Employee Relations 67 72 60 0.49
Customer Relations 65 65 55 0.19
Management Strength 57 60 52 0.49
CEO 53 51 48 1.64
Corporate Culture 56 50 48 0.01
Brand & General
Communications
52 57 49 0.02
Innovation 45 48 50 0.16
Capital Structure 44 44 45 0.63
Cost Control 38 47 40 0.16
Revenue
Baseline
%=100
Revenue
=2397.75*
Revenue
Deferred = 1747.5*
* Revenue = millions
21
Case Study #1 - 31% of this company’s market value can be
statistically attributed to these intangible value drivers
Client
Market
Value
52B
Tangible Financial
Drivers
Revenue
Intangible Drivers
Analyst Relations
Customer Relations
Employee Relations
Shareholder Relations
Supplier Relations
Capital Structure
Cost Control
Profitability
Revenue Growth
Stock Performance
69% or $35.9b
31% or $16.1b
Better than Competition
Innovative Products
Market Share
Environmental Responsibility
Legal and Ethical
CEO Strength
Fosters Entrepreneurship
Overall Management
22
Of the 31% of this company’s market value attributed to intangibles, even
greater specificity can be assigned to each.
3.5% Supplier Relations
3.4% Analyst Relations
2.6% Profitability
2.2% Overall Management
2.1% Legal, Ethical
1.9% Cost Control
1.8%
Environmentally
Responsible
1.8% Employee Relations
1.4% Revenue Growth
1.2% Shareholder Relations
Client
Market
Value
Intangibles 31%
23
Impact on Revenue of Specific Value Drivers
CEO
Analyst Relations
Fosters Entrepreneurship
Overall Management
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Employee Relations
Capital Structure
Environmentally
Responsible
Market Share
Legal, Ethical
Employer of Choice
Shareholder Relations
Innovative products
Better than Competition
0
0
Scores
Millions
of
Dollars
Stock Performance
Supplier Relations
FOCUS
Low Score,
High Impact
OBSERVE
Low Score,
Low Impact
MAINTAIN
High Score,
Low Impact
PROTECT
High Score,
High Impact
24
Sell Side Over-optimism Contributes to Public Distrust McKinsey
25
26
Thank You
jon.low@predictiv.biz
www.predictiv.biz
www.thelowdownblog.blogspot.com/
Office 561 832 3352
Mobile 561 543 7670

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Human capital Value and values Jonathan Low

  • 1. 0 Human Capital: Value and Values Jonathan Low Predictiv November 18, 2013
  • 2. 1 Our Most Valuable Assets Walk Out the Door Every Night
  • 3. 2 Organizational value increasingly depends on intangible rather than tangible assets like property, plant, and equipment • In Predictiv’s research on 20 industries, between 50 and 90% of corporate value is created by intangibles Reputation Is An Intangible Value
  • 6. 5 Intangibles – Drivers of business performance not captured by audited financial statements; > Management • Leadership • Strategy Execution • Communication and Transparency > Relationships • Brand • Reputation • Alliances and Networks > Organization • Technology and Processes • Human Capital • Workplace Organization & Culture • Innovation • Intellectual Capital • Adaptability • Environment/Sustainability
  • 8. 7 Perceptions of Ownership – and Performance - Have Shifted Edelman Trust Barometer
  • 10. 9 The Smile Curve of iPhone Production and Value Yuqing Xing, Asian Development Bank
  • 12. 11 Apple’s Bigger than Exxon, Coke, McDonalds or Disney
  • 13. 12 2013 Disclosure Trends: Perception Formed Through Interaction Common Practice Communication One way communication Single co. progress report Voluntary reporting Standards Verification as option Ad hoc standards Corporate boundary definition Emerging Trend Multi-stakeholder dialogue Industry benchmarking Mandatory reporting Assurance Global standards Dialogue set definition
  • 14. 13 Impressions Are Created on Media the Company Does NOT Control
  • 15. 14 Fare Stories -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Trading Days post Correlation with Adjusted Stock Total Positive Prior Day Prior 2 Days Prior 3 Prior 4 Prior 5 Prior 6 Prior 7 Prior 8 Prior 10 Prior 11 Prior 12 Prior 13 Prior 14 Prior 15 Prior 16 Prior 17 Prior 18 Prior 19 Positive revenue stories have a life of about two months. The maximum occurs at cumulative 17 days stories with stock at 22 days Messages Have a Persistent Impact on Stock Trading
  • 16. 15 Company Performance on Important Values Contributes to Loss of Trust in Business Edelman
  • 17. 16 Social Responsibility Whole Food Apple Coca-Cola Johnson & Johnson Walt Disney Workplace Enviro Google Coca-Cola Microsoft Kraft Vision and Leadership Apple Coca-Cola Amazon Google Walt Disney Financial Performance Apple Google Coca-Cola Walt Disney Amazon Intangible Ratings Impact Reputation, Correlate With Financial Performance Data Source: Harris Interactive 2012 RQ Survey
  • 19. 18 0 Importance 1 = not important; 5 = very important Adequacy 1 = not measured; 5 = very well measured Intangibles Performance Metrics Are Inadequate for Most Global 500 Corporations > 81% of respondents stated that their performance measurement system is not well aligned with their corporate strategies > Gaps in intangibles measurement are correlated with financial performance measures such as ROE, 1 & 3-year stock returns, and 5-year sales growth 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 20. 19 Intangibles Are A Significant Factor in IPO Success Intangible Performance (6 were significant out of 18 total) 1. Management Credibility 2. Customer Satisfaction 3. Strategy Execution 4. Effective Executive Compensation 5. Investor Relations 6. Strong Corporate Culture Financial Performance (none significant out of 8 total) Sales, ROA, cost, market share, income growth, etc. Strong in Both Strong in Financials only Strong in Intangibles only Weak in both
  • 21. 20 Case Study – Evaluating Comparative Media Relations Efforts Among Industry Competitors. This Measures Both Driver Scores (on left) and Revenue Impacts (on right) Communications About: Client Score Comp#1 Score Comp#2 Score Potential Impact (%) Employee Relations 67 72 60 0.49 Customer Relations 65 65 55 0.19 Management Strength 57 60 52 0.49 CEO 53 51 48 1.64 Corporate Culture 56 50 48 0.01 Brand & General Communications 52 57 49 0.02 Innovation 45 48 50 0.16 Capital Structure 44 44 45 0.63 Cost Control 38 47 40 0.16 Revenue Baseline %=100 Revenue =2397.75* Revenue Deferred = 1747.5* * Revenue = millions
  • 22. 21 Case Study #1 - 31% of this company’s market value can be statistically attributed to these intangible value drivers Client Market Value 52B Tangible Financial Drivers Revenue Intangible Drivers Analyst Relations Customer Relations Employee Relations Shareholder Relations Supplier Relations Capital Structure Cost Control Profitability Revenue Growth Stock Performance 69% or $35.9b 31% or $16.1b Better than Competition Innovative Products Market Share Environmental Responsibility Legal and Ethical CEO Strength Fosters Entrepreneurship Overall Management
  • 23. 22 Of the 31% of this company’s market value attributed to intangibles, even greater specificity can be assigned to each. 3.5% Supplier Relations 3.4% Analyst Relations 2.6% Profitability 2.2% Overall Management 2.1% Legal, Ethical 1.9% Cost Control 1.8% Environmentally Responsible 1.8% Employee Relations 1.4% Revenue Growth 1.2% Shareholder Relations Client Market Value Intangibles 31%
  • 24. 23 Impact on Revenue of Specific Value Drivers CEO Analyst Relations Fosters Entrepreneurship Overall Management Revenue Growth Profitability Employee Relations Capital Structure Environmentally Responsible Market Share Legal, Ethical Employer of Choice Shareholder Relations Innovative products Better than Competition 0 0 Scores Millions of Dollars Stock Performance Supplier Relations FOCUS Low Score, High Impact OBSERVE Low Score, Low Impact MAINTAIN High Score, Low Impact PROTECT High Score, High Impact
  • 25. 24 Sell Side Over-optimism Contributes to Public Distrust McKinsey
  • 26. 25