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Hypothesize
your way into better product development
Elias Nema
Haystack / MICES / Berlin Buzzwords 
June 10, 2020
Usecase:Personalization&Recommendations@OLXGroup
Online Marketplace 
  25+ countries
350M+ MAU
Typicaldevelopmentflow
ImplementationIdea
• Bad for data products - where success doesn’t only depend on the code/system
quality and it’s hard to predict results from the initial project planning.
• Optimizes for the wrong things - often a customer is being ignored and the real
feedback is only being collected at the end when the implementation is done.
Wearenotalone!
Hypothesizeflow
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
WhyHypothesis?
• Hypothesis - something that doesn’t have certainty, it can
be right, it can be wrong
• Idea - saying the idea is bad/good implies judgement and
might hurt openness
• User story - presumes we know our users
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
✅
👩⚖
😂
Prototyping
• Design your prototype to verify the hypothesis as fast as possible.
• Only build something that is going to help you prove things you want to.
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
Prototype
Source
Source
Source
Apple I
Google Glass
Yandex Navigator
Experiment
• Often we see code, systems, infrastructure as our medium. But it’s human
interaction with the real products in the real world. So the biggest mistake is to sit
in the ivory tower - go to the real world and collect real feedback!
• It’s not only about learnings, it’s about avoiding costly mistakes.
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
MaximizeTtV(time-to-value)
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
Adjust hypotheses to new learnings
MaximizeTtV(time-to-value)
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
Time-to-Value Potential savings
Short-circuit
Productionize
• One important thing to consider after experiments and all the learnings: cost of
maintenance.
• Having the results from the experiment and all other information you can now
either go all-in on implementation or … go for another hypothesis!
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
Hedgeyourrisks
ProductionizeExperimentPrototypeHypothesize
💰
💰 💰
💰 💰 💰
Hypothesize:conclusion
• This flow doesn’t tell you HOW to build your product.
• Instead, it guides you into WHAT is the most meaningful thing to work on at any
particular moment.
• This allows you to hedge product risks while maximizing learnings, build a common
dictionary within a team and optimize time to value.
Elias Nema
eliasnema
eliasnema.com

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Hypothesize your Way into Better Product Development