India telecom update 1 h 2010v0.1
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The document provides an overview of the India wireless market in the first half of 2010. It notes that government plans to increase spectrum usage charges could negatively impact 3G licensing. Strong subscriber growth is expected to continue due to competition. The mobile market remains highly skewed toward prepaid users with high churn and low ARPU. Broadband subscription growth is also strong at almost 42% in 2009. The fixed-line sector is declining more rapidly than expected. Overall literacy rates in India are lower than other emerging markets.
India telecom update 1 h 2010v0.1
- 1. India Wireless Market Update – 1H,2010 BP Tiwari bptiwari@beyond4g.org
- 2. Government plans to increase spectrum usage charges for telecoms companies planning to offer 3G services could negatively affect the 3G licensing process. •Price war is possible with competition intensifying, while consolidation may not be a far-off reality Strong mobile subscriber growth is continuing, with the market benefiting from a healthy competition. • Mobile Market has seen investment from Singapore’s SingTel, Vodafone of the UK, Telekom Malaysia, Norway’s Telenor, Etisalat of the United Arab Emirates, Japan’s NTT DoCoMo and Russia’s Sistema. • Demand for mobile value-added services is strong and expected to grow. • Attractive Regulatory framework and Business environment for telecoms sector investors; the government Mobile market is still highly skewed towards prepaid users; •High Churn , low Prepaid ARPU and Duplicat SIMs •delayed policy implementation in a number of areas The government will cut license fees by up to 33% for those operators whose services cover over 95% of the residential areas in a calling circle. •Possibility of allowing MVNOs •Large demand expected from content services and mobile broadband services •Possibility to convert Prepaid users to Postpaid S W T O SWOT India Mobile Market
- 3. Fixed-line sector may decline at a more rapid rate than envisaged, with potentially negative consequences for ADSL growth. •Danger that the development of IPTV services will be hampered by high costs, low broadband usage and slow speeds. Broadband subscription growth is strong, with the market registering almost a 42% increase in subscribers in 2009. • CAGR over 50% for next five year projected • Av ialability of BWA spectrum with 3 operators to fuel mobile broadband adoption. The market for fixed telephone lines is shrinking. • Fixed-line market is dominated by state-owned operators BSNL and MTNL. In rural India, BSNL controls over 99% of the telephone infrastructure. • 85 % of the market is DSL in India Huge untapped market with only 2% of the population in India has broadband penetration . • Allocation of BWA spectrum should fuel growth and adoption in India • 4G Technology like WiMAX and LTE to play bigger role in bridging the gap of digital dividend. • Growing workforce, house hold disposable, and per capita show high for broadband growth S W T O SWOT India Broadband Market
- 4. Multinational Competation and challenges from other countries like bangladesh, Vietnam •China as major competitor to FDI India is now one of the biggest recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) among emerging markets. • Cost Effective skilled English-speaking force • Growing Workforce, HouseHold Income, Literacy ,GDP and per capita Overall literacy rates in India remain far lower than in Asian and other key emerging market nations. • Lack of optimum Infrastructure • Foreign investment protection , red tape and inflexible labour laws Enhance competitiveness of local industry through further liberalization and deregulation • Major opportunity lies in infrastructure , roads, railways and airports etc. S W T O SWOT India Business Environment
- 5. 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subscriptions CDMA GSM W-CDMA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Bharti Reliance Communications Vodafone Essar Tata Teleservices Idea Cellular BSNL Aircel Unitech Wireless Etisalat DB Telecom Shyam Videocon 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subscriptions 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DO Rev A/B 1xRTT GSM HSPA W-CDMA Vodafone Essar 15% Tata Teleservices 15% Shyam 2% Reliance Communications 15% MTNL 1% Loop Mobile 1% Idea Cellular 10% HFCL Infotel 0% BSNL 9% Bharti 18% Aircel 7% Etisalat DB Telecom 2% S Tel 1% Unitech Wireless 3% Videocon 1% Total CDMA,GSM and W-CDMA Operators Market Share Data Technology Split Operators Market Share in 2015 Subscription and Technology Forecast
- 6. Prepaid vs. Postpaid Composition – Comparing China, US and Japan 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subscriptions Millions Prepaid Postpaid India Japan China US 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subscriptions Millions Prepaid Postpaid 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subscriptions Millions Prepaid Postpaid 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subscriptions Millions Prepaid Postpaid
- 7. 3G Market and Forecast 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 W-CDMA LTE HSPA GSM 1xRTT 1xEV-DO Rev A/B 1xEV-DO 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Sep 2008 Dec 2008 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Dec 2009 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 MTNL/BSNL, 3G 3G Subscription MTNL BSNL 3G Uptake Technology /Forecast
- 8. Handset Market Share by Technology Total W-CDMA HSPA GSM GPRS/EDGE 1xRTT 1xEV-DO Rev A/B 1xEV-DO 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 HandsetSales 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DO Rev A/B 1xRTT GPRS/EDGE GSM HSPA W-CDMA Handset Market Share in 2010 Forecast market share by 2015
- 9. OS Market Share and Handset Manufacturers Symbian 83% Microsoft Windows Mobile 9% Android 1% iOS 1% Research In Motion 6% HTC 7% LG 1% Nokia 82% Others 1% RIM 6% Samsung 2% Sony Ericsson 1% Apple Asus HTC LG Nokia Others RIM Samsung Sony Ericsson Smartphone OS Market Share Handset Manufacturers Market Share
- 10. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Bharti RCOM Idea Average Voice APRU(-8.5% CAGR) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Bharti RCOM Idea Average Minute of Use (-2% CAGR) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Bharti RCOM Idea Average Cost per Minute (-7% CAGR) ARPU Trends and Forecast
- 11. Wireline Broadband Landscape DSL covers over 80% of the market 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other High-Speed Cable Modem DSL FTTH/FTTP/Ethernet Dial-Up Accounts 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Household Penetration of Consumer Broadband Connections Household Penetration of Consumer Broadband Connections Household Broadband Penetration
- 12. Data ARPU Trends 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 5 GB 10 GB 20 GB INR MTS TATA Reliance Dongle EV-DO 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 512 Kbps 1 Mbps 2 Mbps INR BSNL TATA Reliance Unlimited plans, fair usage policy Personal Broadband Residential Broadband 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 512 Kbps 1 Mbps 2 Mbps INR BSNL TATA Bharti Unlimited ,Fair Usage , Static IP SME Broadband
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