Intro to PM.ppt
- 2. 2 INTRODUCTION Reference sources A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (2003). The Project Management Institute. http://www.pmi.org Rakos, John J. et al, A Practical Guide to Project Management Documentation, Wiley, 2004 Kerzner, Harold. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling. 6th ed. John Wiley & Sons, 1998. Rakos, John J. Software Project Management for Small to Medium Sized Projects. Prentice-Hall, 1990.
- 3. 3 INTRODUCTION The Value of Project Management • Allows for excellent organization and tracking • Better control and use of resources • Reduces complexity of inter-related tasks • Allows measurement of outcome versus plans • Early identification of problems and quick correction
- 4. 4 INTRODUCTION PMBOKTM Knowledge Areas • Based on the Project Management Institute’s Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK1 • Nine knowledge areas: – This webinar: Scope, Time, Cost, Risk, Integration -- Next webinar: Quality, Procurement, Communications, Human Resources, Integration
- 5. 5 INTRODUCTION PMP Certification Internationally accepted accreditation Get certification 3 (5 without degree) years experience 35 hours training 4 hour, 200 questions, multiple choice exam! Have to be re-certified every 3 years 60 PDUs Attending a conference Attending course PMI membership Publications PM work
- 6. 6 INTRODUCTION What is a Project? A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service - A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™), Project Management Institute, 2003 One time Limited funds/time Specific resources utilized Performed by people - Single or multi-person team Planned, controlled Specific Deliverables
- 7. 7 INTRODUCTION The Triple Constraint of Projects • On Time, Budget, Quality = Required Scope Time Cost Quality •Integration •Trade – Off’s
- 8. 8 Project Life Cycle INTRODUCTION 5% 20% 60% 15% Concept Planning Execution/Control Closing Percentages and graph refer to the amount of effort (people) In IT projects = 90-95% of cost! Definition | Analysis |Design|Build|Test|Accept| Implement| Operation
- 9. 9 Write a Plan Containing 1. Steps required to accomplish the project objectives 2. Tasks needed to be done at each step (using Work Breakdown Structures) 3. Estimate of how much effort each task requires 4. The resources required for each task 5. (Given 3. and 4.) Calculation of how long each task/step will take 6. (Given 4. and 5.) Calculation of task, step and project costs 7. The inter-dependencies of tasks 8. The schedule for each task and the whole project (Milstones, Deliverables, payments) Project Planning
- 10. 10 Stakeholders Project Sponsor Project Leader Project Manager Finance Procure- ment Systems Engineering Support Sales Maintenance IM/ IT Users Contractors Project Planning: set expectations of Stakeholders
- 11. 11 Project Planning: Time and Cost Estimate • Iterative • Accuracy – Estimates become more accurate Preliminary Plan Final Plan 0 +25% -75% +15 -50 +10 -25 Initiation Planning Execution Closing Definition Analysis Design Proposal Plan Revised Plan
- 12. 12 Project Management Module 2: Scope Management
- 13. 13 Project Scope Planning Scope Management • Ensuring that the project includes all the work required, only the work required. • Dividing the work into major pieces, then subdividing into smaller, more manageable pieces.
- 14. 14 Work Breakdown Structure - Formats 1. Organization Chart Method 0. Title 1. Major Phase 1 1.1 Section 1 of Phase 1 2. Major Phase 2 3. Major Phase 3 1.2 Section 2 of Phase 1 1.3 Section 3 of Phase 1
- 15. 15 2. Outline Method 0. TITLE 1. MAJOR PHASE 1 1.1 S1 OF PHASE1 1.2 S2 OF PHASE1 1.3 S3 OF PHASE1 2. MAJOR PHASE 2 ... etc. Work Breakdown Structure - Formats
- 16. 16 WBS - Typical Tasks Detailed WBS Example for procuring an Equipment System
- 17. 17 Summary (Top Level) WBS Work Breakdown Structure Summary and Detail tasks, or Parent and Child tasks (Work Package)
- 18. 18 Using the Work Breakdown Structure 1. Estimate and schedule the work (Durations, precedences on WBS) 2. Organize and schedule resources (resource allocated WBS) 3. Assign responsibilities – (Resource ramp-up, resource allocated WBS) 4. Estimate and allocate costs and budgets (costed WBS) 5. Add up costs to different levels – Task – Levels on the WBS (phase, account/contract) – Cost account – Total project 6. Get resource commitments 7. Schedule start <--> end dates 8. Track expenditures, schedules and performance Work Breakdown Structure
- 19. 19 Project Management Module 3: Project Time Planning
- 20. 20 Project Time Planning Estimating Effort: 3 Methods 1. Professional Judgment – “Expert” picks a number (out of the air!) – Requires an expert – Requires experience – Good memory – May ignore people – VERY RELIABLE FOR THEMSELVES
- 21. 21 Estimating Efforts (cont’d) 2. History – Look at tables of past actuals on major tasks – Interpolate – Requires professional judgment – Requires good history (which changes!) 3. Formula 3.1 Variables – Determine major variable factors (task, person) – Using measurement determine formula of factors – Interview and plug into formula Project Time Planning
- 22. 22 Estimating Efforts (cont’d) 3.2 Function Points – Determine smallest pieces (function points) of project. – Using measurement establish time for each one. – For new project, break into function points; add up times, then multiply for worker productivity. (Possibly: Junior x 2, Average x 1, Senior x 0.5) • FORMULA IS BEST (IN THEORY). • IN REALITY,____________ BEST. Project Time Planning
- 23. 23 Estimating – use of History Ratios for Systems project SYSTEMS ACTIVITIES DUR EFFORT SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS 11-15% 6-10% SYSTEM DESIGN 8-12% 6-10% SOFTWARE REQUREMENTS 2-4% 3-5% SOFTWARE PRELIMINARY DESIGN 5-7% 4-6% SOFTWARE DETAILED DESIGN 8-11% 9-12% CODE AND UNIT TEST 20-28% 24-32% SOFTWARE INTEGRATION & TEST 10-14% 11-15% SOFTWARE QUALIFICATION 5-7% 2-4% SYTEM INTEGRATION & QUAL. 8-12% 8-12% WARRANTY AND SUPPORT N/A 7-10% MAKE YOUR OWN BASED ON THE MAJOR PHASES/PIECES!
- 24. 24 If Estimate was Effort, must convert it to Duration Duration = Effort/Resources (sometimes) Taking into account: Resource availability Desire Skill Productivity Scheduling
- 25. 25 Scheduling: Requires Duration and Precedents Two Graphical tools for Scheduling: 1. PERT Chart Plan (from WBS) Task Precedent Duration A - 7d B A 3d C - 10d D C 5d E - 4d F E 6d G F 3d
- 26. 26 Ordering the Activities: PERT Chart Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) Scheduling 1 2 3 4 5 6 A C E B D F G 7d 3d 4d 6d 3d 10d 5d
- 27. 27 Scheduling - Gantt Chart Order of building the Gantt Chart: • Work Breakdown • Estimates (duration) • Dependencies • Resource use Gantt shows: • Critical Path • Non Critical Path(s) • Early Start/Finish • Late Start/Finish • Slack
- 28. 28 Scheduling - Gantt Chart
- 29. 29 Gantt (Schedule) Drives 1. Milestones • Clear, concrete, binary events implying progress • For example: Review (with approval), Sign off of a deliverable, Funds approved • Shown as 0 length task – Try for even frequency • Not too close • Not more than 2 - 3 months apart – Major Point to communicate with • Client • Outside world • Management Scheduling - Gantt Chart
- 30. 30 Gantt (Schedule) Drives • Training • Meetings • Reviews • Reports • Site preparation • Delivery dates (date to order) for external items • Payment Scheduling - Gantt Chart
- 31. 31 Project Management Module 4: Resource Assignment and Cost Planning
- 32. 32 Availability Skills • More experienced people • Less experienced people Desire Similar tasks to one person to use learning curve Assign critical tasks to most reliable people Tasks that need interaction or are similar • Same person • Two who communicate Personality and team communication does matter and again, Availability Assigning Resources
- 33. 33 Resource Loading and Optimizing Gantt with Resource Histogram
- 34. 34 Resource leveling - possible rescheduling Gantt with Resource Histogram Manual resource leveling: fast vs good vs cheap Automatic resource leveling: use only as ‘suggestion’
- 35. 35 Cost Estimating • Similar to Time Estimating (usually done by the same person/group that does the Time Estimates) Calculation of Cost for each WP: Example: If estimate was duration 10 days Assign human resources 2 people Need Effort = Duration x Resources E=2x10=20pd e.g., Resource Cost (RC) = Effort x Rate(includes overhead) RC=20x$1,000=$20,000 (Possible) Plus Fixed Cost (FC) e.g., FC = $5,000 Total cost (TC) = Resource cost + Fixed Cost TC=20,000 + 5,000 = 25,000
- 36. 36 Costed WBS ID Task Name Account Fixed Cost Total Cost Payment 36 Final Submission $0.00 $33,000.00 $0.00 37 Final Design Work C14 $5,000.00 $25,000.00 $0.00 38 Final Plan C14 $0.00 $8,000.00 $0.00 39 TB Submission $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 40 EPA $0.00 $0.00 $40,000.00 41 Software (Subcontract 50-B) $0.00 $133,000.00 $0.00 42 SW Design $12,000.00 $62,000.00 $0.00 43 Do Prelim SW design S21 $0.00 $20,000.00 $0.00 44 PDR $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 45 Do Final SW design S22 $0.00 $30,000.00 $0.00 46 CDR $0.00 $0.00 $70,000.00 47 SW Construction $12,000.00 $71,000.00 $0.00 48 Code CSC A S31 $0.00 $6,000.00 $0.00 49 Code CSC B S31 $0.00 $8,000.00 $0.00 50 Integrate&Tst CSCI 1 S32 $0.00 $20,000.00 $0.00 Use Software to roll costs up the WBS
- 37. 37 Cost Ramp-Up $100,000.00 $200,000.00 $300,000.00 $400,000.00 Cumulative Cost: Filtered resources Total: CPM Total: Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1997 1998 $53,920.00 $127,160.00 $274,360.00 $331,440.00 $349,920.00 $368,400.00 $376,500.00 $376,500.00 Use Software to report cash flow
- 38. 38 Cost - Sanity checks Cost Estimate Error Range – same as Time Estimate 0 +75% -25% 25 -10 10 -8 Indicative PPA Init Plan Budget EPA Final Plan Definitive PDR Design PPA - Preliminary Project Approval EPA - Effective PDR - Preliminary Design Review
- 39. 39 Project Management Module 5: Risk Management
- 40. 40 Risk Management Planning and Control Processes • Risk: anything not in the project plan that may occur and cause your project to be late, cost more or compromise its quality/performance. • Risk is an opportunity as well as a threat: “You don’t put power brakes on a car to slow it down - you do so to allow it to go faster.” -Mark Davies, KPMG • We will concentrate on the threat.
- 41. 41 Four Steps of Risk Management 1. Identification – Anticipate the risk – List the risks, event triggers, symptoms 2. Analysis – Evaluate probability, impact – Qualitative vs Quantitative 3. Risk Response – Strategy Development to mitigate the risk: • Eliminate the risk or reduce impact • Contingency planning 4. Risk Control – Monitor – Update lists, strategies – Action the contingency plan – Fight the fires Which is most important??
- 42. 42 Step 1: Risk Identification Anticipate the Risk Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy) Are we proposing the right solution? Any risk in technical components? Performance expectations reasonable? Is the hardware standard? How much experience do we have with it? Is the operating software standard? Well documented? How much experience do we have with it? Is the development method standard? Well documented? How much experience do we have with it? Any component availability risks?
- 43. 43 Step 1: Risk Identification Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy) (cont’d) Does failure of this application affect the customer’s business? Is the project over 6 months? 12 months? 24 months? Does it need over 5 people? Are we dependent on third party resources? Internal? External? Who is the project manager? Who is the project leader/architect? Are the resources available when needed? Who is the client? Have we worked with this client? How is our relationship? Is client available when needed?
- 44. 44 Step 1: Risk Identification: Inputs PROJECT/ PM ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL NATURAL ENVIRONMENTS CORPORATE PROGRAMS CORPORATE POLICY AND CULTURE TECHNOLOGY SENIOR MANAGEMENT POLITICAL REGULATORY AND LEGAL HUMAN FACTORS HEALTH & SAFETY • Risk Checklists, The WBS, Environment: History of past Similar Projects
- 45. 45 Step 2: Risk Analysis Evaluate Probability and Impact into three levels: Low, Medium, High: Probability Criteria: Probability Rank Description High Medium Low Greater than 66% probability of occurring 34 to 65% probability of occurring Less than 33% probability of occurring
- 46. 46 Step 2: Risk Analysis Impact Criteria: Impact Rank Description High Medium Low Could add more than 25% to the project budget Could add between 10 and 25% to the project budget Could add less than 10% to the project budget High Medium Low Schedule Cost Quality Could add over 25% delay to the completion of the project Could add over 10% delay to the completion of the project Could add less than 10% delay to the completion of the project, or delays a non critical deliverable Determine a combined impact level based on which constraint is most affected.
- 47. 47 Step 2: Risk Analysis Draw a Risk Table to Summarize Wonderful Management Tool/Report Prob. Impact High Medium Low High Medium Low 3. Lack of skilled staff, organization slow to hire adequate staff; may delay implementation. 2. Time estimate and funds inadequate for the scope of this project; may be late and over budget. 1. Lack of commitment. Headquarters may have to assume more responsibility; will result in project delay, cost overruns. 6. Cannot get office space for staff; may cause communication problems, delaying the execution phase. 5. Expecting major scope changes from clients; may cause delay and cost escalation. 4. Not enough time spent planning, lack of understanding of problem; may take longer/ cost more than anticipated.
- 48. 48 Step 3: Risk Response Strategy Development: Reduce the Probability and/or Impact of the Risk Risk Mitigation: Reducing the probability and/or impact • Take immediate action. Can be risk avoidance (if eliminated) or risk reduction (still there, but probability or impact is reduced). Contingency Plans • Take action only when the risk is imminent or has occurred Or Acceptance (do nothing), depends on Risk Tolerance
- 49. 49 Risk as a Monetary Value Tempering the Estimate • Estimate range is – ESTIMATE ESTIMATE + RISK – Try to work within the range, depending on how crucial the accuracy has to be. • If you can get several estimates – Use the Standard Deviations to give you confidence levels: • Expected estimate +/- 1 SD gives you 68% confidence • Expected estimate +/- 2 SD gives you 95% confidence • Expected estimate +/- 3 SD gives you 99% confidence
- 50. 50 Project Management Module 6: Scope/ Time/ Cost Control
- 51. 51 Project Control – Scope Control Scope Change Control • Formal change control • Evaluate cost/time impact – Renegotiate, set expectations – Implement or defer to next release Configuration Management • Keep track of what changes were made to which modules • Versioning • Interoperability of modules
- 52. 52 Project Control – Schedule and Cost Step 1 - Take a baseline. • Baseline plan: a copy of the plan (WBS with all dates, assignments, costs). • Used to report progress against the baseline. • Taken at a mutually agreed upon planning point: • Proposal or Analysis completion • +25% to -10% stage • Baseline is (theoretically) not alterable • Unless major scope change occurs.
- 53. 53 Project Control – Reporting Schedule using a Tracking Gantt Double Gantt: Shows Project Schedule Progress vs baseline
- 54. 54 Project Control – Cost Control/Reporting Financial Report vs Baseline
- 56. 56 Resources Available To help you Manage your Projects • Training & Learning – Universities • Project Management courses • Major/Masters in Project • Others – public • Project Management Institute (PMI) • PMP Certification courses • PMI conferences • 250,000 members worldwide • Your own Subject Matter Experts
- 57. 57 Resources Available To help you Manage your Projects • Training & Learning – Internet • PMI.org • Many sites: search on Project Management • NASA • Software Engineering Institute • Software Productivity Center • DOD/Pentagon • Project Management Software (WBS, Schedule, Cost, Resource usage, Multiple project roll-up, Internet reporting,...) – Microsoft Project – Primavera – Open source: OpenProj • John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.
- 58. 58 Final Details Can you be a good project manager? Ask yourself: • Can I say 'NO'? – Can I attack problems as soon as/even before they arise? • Can I live unloved? If you do your job well, people will wonder what you do!