IP FALL 2015 Class 2 国際政治基礎B fall 2015 class 2

Fundamental Concepts of
International Politics
Spring 2015
Prof. H. Steven Green
Toyo University
Faculty of Law
Class 2
Sept. 28, 2015
Balance of Power &
World War One

Multipolar BOP System in 19th Century
• Main case of multipolar system is Europe from 1815-1914.
• Longest period without world war in modern state system.
19TH C. MULTIPOLARITY & TWO DIMENSIONS OF
SYSTEMS
STRUCTURE (Look at Table 3.1)
• How power is distributed among states (“poker game”)
PROCESS (Table 3.2)
• How states interact with each other
• How “the game is played”
3

19th C. Multipolarity and Two Dimensions
1815-1871 five great powers often shifted alliances (連盟を組
み変えた）
• This period is called “loose multipolarity”
• Started by the Congress of Vienna
• The five great powers (UK, France, Prussia, Austrian Empire,
Russia) wanted to prevent the rise of a hegemon
5

1871-1907: Rise of Germany
• Both Germany and Italy unified (国家を統一する) so now
there were SIX great powers
• Germany became most powerful state on continent (but not
as strong as Great Britain: UK power was NOT projected into
Europe)
• Bismarck’s negotiation skills created treaties with France and
Russia.
• Germany’s growing economic and military strength started
the dynamic that would end the multipolar system
• That dynamic, of course, is the security dilemma.
7

1871-1907: Rise of Germany
Otto von Bismarck
• Flage
–
Flag of Germany, 1871 8

1907-1914: Bipolarity of Alliances
• Two alliance systems became inflexible blocks.
• Members within each block promise to help each other if one
of them is attacked (“collective security”)
• Members cooperate in diplomacy and trade more with each
other
9
TRIPLE ALLANCE TRIPLE ENTENTE
GERMANY UNITED KINGDOM
AUSTRIA HUNGARY FRANCE
ITALY RUSSIA

TRIPLE ENTENTE vs. TRIPLE ALLIANCE 1907-1914
10

PROCESS of
the 19th Century International System
• Five periods (See Table 3.2)
1815-1822: Congress of Vienna
• France is weaker, other great powers agree to
cooperate with it again
• Rules of the game: Concert of Europe, until
1822
• Great powers agree to meet frequently and to
maintain equal balance of power. 11

Process of 19th C. Multipolarity
1822-1854 Loose Concert
• Rising nationalist & democratic movements
challenged system after 1822
• New national identities (“French,” “German,” etc.)
• New values of democracy (rule by people, e.g. rule
by French people, etc.)
Constructivism: New norms made it difficult for states
to maintain the Concert of Europe: Leaders could
not just talk to each other, had to think about how
people in their country would react.
 Leaders liked nationalism but not democracy.
12

Revolutions of 1848
Popular movements for democracy throughout Europe.
ALL were defeated by their states.
Germany
Italy
Hungary
13

1854-1870 Nationalism and Unification of
Germany and Italy
Less stable: FIVE wars
• Crimea (UK and France vs. Russia)
• Bismarck uses German nationalism to defeat
Denmark, Austria and France
–Gains territory for unified German NATION
–German nation now a German nation-state
14

1871-1890 Bismarck’s Revived Concert
• Germany limits its imperialism (帝国主義) in
order to keep military power centered in
Berlin
• Tensions between France and Germany over
territory
• War in 1870-71
(War within the
rules of the game)
French soldiers, 1871 15

1890-1914 The Loss of Flexibility
• A balance of power (two alliances) but..
• No flexibility
• Bismarck no longer leader of Germany
• New leaders did NOT renew treaties with Russia
• New leaders challenged British sea power
• Austria challenged Russia over control of the Balkans
 French, British, Russians and small states next to
Germany worried about German power.
16

• Austria-Hungary challenged Russia over control of
the Balkans
17

ALLIANCES (連盟)
• Alliances shape balance of power
• Alliances are agreements that states make for
mutual security
• Can be for military reasons (US/UK and USSR)
• Can be for non-military reasons, such as
ideology or economics (US, Europe, Japan, i.e.
rich democracies)
• When interests change, so do alliances:
– US & China before 1945 (vs. Japan)
– US vs. China after 1949 (Chinese communists rule)18

Two Questions
 In 1870, Germany unified and became more
powerful but the system was stable.
According to realism, the rise of Germany should:
a) Have been prevented by other powers.
b) Made the system highly unstable.
We want to know:
1) Why did the rise of Germany from 1870-1890
NOT cause war?
2) Why did the system change after 1890 AND why
was there a world war in 1914?

Why did the rise of Germany from 1870-
1890 NOT cause war?
Occam’s Razor
Law of parsimony (節約の法則)
• Good explanations “shave away” unnecessary
details.
Parsimony: To explain
a lot with a little.

Why did the rise of Germany from 1870-
1890 NOT cause war?
Let’s use OCCAM’S RAZOR to explain it:
STRUCTURAL REALISM
provides simplest explanation
• France threatened the Westphalian system
but could not change it
• Other great powers allied to defeat France
and restored the rules of the game(元のルー
ルに戻る)
21

Structure & Process of 19th Century System
STRUCTURAL REALISM
• A multipolar system until 1871 when Germany
unified.
• Germany’s LOCATION in center of Europe
threatened balance of power.
• A STRONG Germany could defeat Russia and
France and control all of Europe.
• A WEAK Germany could be easy for France OR
Russia to attack and control.
• Should be a very unstable system after 1870! 22

Structure & Process of 19th Century System
• Bismarck’s diplomatic skill convinced other
European powers to accept German power.
Maybe structural realism does NOT explain everything
It cannot explain:
• individual personality, skills of Bismarck.
• why other powers did NOT attack Germany
BEFORE unification.
• why other great powers allowed Bismarck to
build a nation-state.
23

INDIVIDUALS and STATES
(Domestic politics)
• Kaiser Wilhelm (emperor of Germany) fired
Bismarck in 1890
• Next leaders of Germany were more
aggressive: Challenged British sea power,
broke treaties with Russia
REALISM cannot predict domestic
politics or individual
leaders’ actions.
24

What realism cannot explain
• As we will see shortly, the international
system became unstable after 1890.
• For now, though, think about this:
Why couldn’t realism explain the stability after
the rise of Germany?

CONSTRUCTIVISM:
Think about changes in European culture and ideas
Ideologies of democracy and nationalism:
• Started with French Revolution
• Napoleon lost in 1815, popular movements
lost in 1848 BUT…
• These new norms
spread throughout
Europe
Germans demanding democracy, 1848 26

CONSTRUCTIVISM:
27
New norms of nationalism
• Connected cultural identity to national identity
• People with similar cultural, language and religious values
believed it was natural to be part of same state
• People believed the state- i.e. politics- was the highest
expression of the culture.
•German philosopher GWF Hegel believed that
nationalism was the “cement” that held societies
together when the power of monarchies was
disappearing.
Symbol of German nationalism in 19th Century

CONSTRUCTIVISM:
Nationalism: New identities for people connected to
new, impersonal state.
• But, leaders could appeal to national identity to
organize wars against other nation-states.
• So, nationalism started as a movement against
monarchies and then became a resource that leaders
could use against other states.
• Germany’s new leaders appealed to nationalism, but
German strength and nationalism made other great
powers nervous so they…
28

CONSTRUCTIVISM: Think about changes in European
culture and ideas
• Appealed to their people’s nationalism
against Germany.
Did nationalism & democracy made IP less stable?
29

Realism vs. Constructivism
• Realism did not predict individuals such as Bismarck
OR the rise of new norms.
• People and norms can create change, but…
• Realism did predict that the security dilemma would
ALWAYS be a fact of life in an anarchic international
system.
• After 1890 the security dilemma was obvious:
• France, Russia and the UK were nervous about
German power
REALISM: Norms, values and individuals CANNOT
change the logic of anarchy and the security
dilemma
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
30

A peaceful system…
• In spite of small wars between them, the period
between 1815-1914 was peaceful among the great
powers thanks to treaties, negotiations and
agreements to avoid fighting over colonies.
King George V (UK)
and Kaiser Wilhelm II
(Germany) were cousins!

Great Powers’ Imperialism
• The Great Powers avoided major war in
Europe and in their colonies (植民地)
UK, Germany, Russia, France
and Japan decided how to
share control of China.
(French cartoon)

Great Powers’ Imperialism
Berlin Conference, 1884-1885
Great Powers agree how to divide Africa, in
order to avoid fighting with each other.

The system that led to world war
34

WHAT CAUSED WORLD WAR I?
• On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip shot and
killed Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz
Ferdinand and his wife.
• World War I started in August.
Is this event the origin of World War I?

Alliances and the security dilemma
How the war started:
1. A Serbian killed Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary
2. Austria-Hungary sent army to Serbia
3. Russia feared it would lose influence in Serbia,
so it mobilized its army (動員した)
4. German army mobilized: G. worried about
Russia
5. French army mobilized: F. worried about
Germany
6. Germany declared war (宣戦布告する) on Russia,
8/1/1914
7. UK declared war on Germany, 8/4/1914

Alliances and the security dilemma
The causes of World War I started a long time
before the summer of 1914
• Why did the system of 1907-1914 have such
low-crisis stability?

What caused World War I ?
(Nye, Figure 3.2) (“Image” = “Level”)
Image 2: Domestic
Image 1: Personalities of Leaders
Image 3: International system
Rise of
Germany
Bipolarity
Loss of
Moderation in
process
Escalating
crises
WAR
1914
Collapse of
A-H
Rising
nationalism
Aggressive
German
policy
Domestic
class conflict
Rising
popular
participation

Three levels of analysis (Nye)
Image (level) 3: International system
Image (level) 2: Domestic politics
Image (level) 1: Individuals (leaders)
The causes of WWI began at least 30 years before the
war started.
KEYWORD: counterfactual thought experiment
反実仮想の思想実験

Nye, Figure 3.2
Image 2: Domestic
Image 1: Personalities of Leaders
Image 3: International system
Rise of
Germany
Bipolarity
Loss of
Moderation in
process
Escalating
crises
WAR
1914
Collapse of
A-H
Rising
nationalism
Aggressive
German
policy
Domestic
class conflict
Rising
popular
participation

Level 3 Analysis: Structure (System)
1. Rise of Germany
• More heavy industry than UK in 1890s
• GNP 2x UK in 1900
• 1860s: UK = 25% of global industrial
production
• 1913: UK = 10% of global industrial
production but Germany = 15%

Rise of Germany
• Germany built up navy rapidly in 1911
• Tirpitz Plan: Build world’s 2nd largest navy

Rise of Germany
• Boer Wars (1880-1881, 1899-1902): UK fighting Boers
(Dutch settlers(移住者)), but Germans sympathize with
Boers.
Boer women & children in a British
concentration camp (強制収容所)

Why are the actions of Germany part of the
SYSTEM LEVEL analysis?
• They changed the distribution of power.
• More power in one state often makes other
states nervous
• The security dilemma…again
But, REMEMBER: The security dilemma does
NOT always lead to war.

2. Rigidity of alliances
• Sir Eyre Crowe, 1907: “UK must not allow
Germany to be the dominant power on
continent of Europe.”
• 1904: UK allied with France
• 1907: UK, France ally with Russia
Fear of rising German power
led to balancing.

Rigid alliances
Germany felt surrounded: Allied with Austria-Hungary

Shift to BIPOLARITY
48

Changes in Process
Bipolarity makes IP less moderate(穏健)
Constructivists say 3 other reasons for less
moderate sytem:
1. Transnational ideas
2. Complacency about peace (平和へ自己満足)
3. German policy

Changes in Process
German policy: Aggressive
• Kaiser focused on hard power, ignored
soft power (unlike Bismarck)
• Started naval arms race (軍拡競争) with
UK (see Figure 3.1)
• Did not respect other great powers’
areas of influence:
– Challenged Russia over influence in
Turkey and Balkans
– Challenged French over territory in
Morocco

Level 2: Domestic Politics & Society
Domestic explanation 1:
Vladimir Lenin’s view, based on Marxism:
• WWI was result of state type: capitalist states
• War is the final stage of imperialism
• WWI = War of imperialists controlled by
capitalists

Lenin was wrong:
1. Great powers cooperated to avoid war in
colonies.
2. Bankers and industrialists (実業家) wanted
to avoid war.
3. Globalization was greater in 1914 than in
1989.

Domestic explanations 2 & 3:
2. Crisis in Austia-Hungary & Ottoman
Empire
3. Domestic politics of Germany

2. Crisis in Austia-Hungary & Ottoman Empire
• Both were multi-national empires:
Different ethnic groups with different
languages within borders
• So, both governments feared nationalist
movements
• Ottoman government was corrupt and
weak (i.e. its influence within its own
empire was decreasing)

• Balkan war in 1912 pushed out the Turks.
• So, other Balkan states challenged Austria-
Hungary
Bulgarian soldiers defeat Ottoman Turks

Map of the Balkans, 1912-1913
• Nationalist movements in the Balkan states weakened the
Ottoman and the Austro-Hungarian empires

Ethno-linguistic map of Austria-Hungary

• Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Prinzip kills A-H
archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife.
Did this man start
WWI?

• Austro-Hungarian empire wanted to stop the
spread of Serbian (and other) nationalism.
Nationalist groups fought INSIDE the Ottoman and A-H
empires, which weakened the empires.
So, these are DOMESTIC-LEVEL causes to WWI.
 “Serbians must die!”

3. Domestic politics of Germany
• The Coalition of “Iron & Rye” (鉄とライ麦)
• Large industrialists (iron) and aristocrats (貴
族)(rye) supported imperial expansion instead
of social reforms (which Bismarck had started)
• Lack of reforms created social unrest
War was a way for German
government to stop social
unrest:
•Organized men into military
•Support from public

“Cult of the offensive” (攻撃至上主義)
• European leaders believed in using large, fast
armies that strike first and strike hard.
- Based on Franco-German War, 1870-71 and US Civil
War, 1861-65
• If conflict started, they wanted to act fast and
with a large army.

Level 1: Personalities of Leaders
:
• Austria-Hungary: Emperor Franz Joseph was old
and tired.
• Russia: Czar Nicholas II had no support in
government
• Germany: Kaiser Wilhelm II was emotional,
afraid and had bad information from foreign
ministry

Outcome and Impact of WORLD WAR
I
In the beginning,
people were
excited and
expected the
war to end
quickly.

Outcome and Impact of WORLD WAR I
Killed more than 15 million people
(東京都 = 13 million)

Destroyed 4 empires: German, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman and Russian

Destroyed 4 empires: German, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman and Russian AND
created many NEW countries.

Shifted power away from only Europe:
US and Japan became stronger
• The US joined the war in 1917
• Japan and the UK made an alliance in 1902
• Japan joined the war in 1914: Wanted to take
control of Germany’s colonies in China and other
areas in Asia and the Pacific.
• During the war, Japan played an important role by
protecting sea lanes in the South Pacific.
• US and Japan both gained power and influence from
World War 1.

Japanese celebrate victory over Russia in
1905
In 1905, Japan became the first non-European and non-white
nation to defeat a white, European power in the modern era.

• Ushered in Russian Revolution (1917), which
created a communist state, and
defined 20th Century IP

What were the causes of World War I?
World War I:
• killed 15 million people
• ended 4 empires, which created many new nation-
states
• led to the Russian Revolution, which created a
communist state and defined 20th Century IP (Cold War,
after World War II)
• left Germany poor and in debt to other nations, which
may have helped the Nazis come to power.
WWI was one of the events that shaped IP for the rest of
the 20th Century so we need to understand its causes.
WHICH CAUSE(S) DO YOU THINK EXPLAIN WWI THE
MOST? WHY?

This exercise (練習) is both homework and preparation for Test 1. Use lecture notes and the
textbook to complete the charts below.
A: LEVEL OF CAUSATION B: CAUSE C: DETAILS
(Bを詳細に説明する）
Level 3: SYSTEM
Level 2: DOMESTIC
Level 1: INDIVIDUALS
CAUSE (B from Chart 1) LEVEL (A from Chart 1)
PRECIPITATING
(immediate)
INTERMEDIATE
DEEP
CHART 1
NAME__________________________ NO.__________________________________

The End.
Goodbye! See you next week!
At APEC Leaders’ Summit, 2013, Indonesia
• APEC countries = 40% of world’s population,
55% of world GDP, and…
44% of world trade

DISCUSSION
• Some realists expect conflict between Japan (a
great power since 1900) and China (a new
great power.)
What do you think? Will there be a military
conflict between China and Japan?
Why or why not?
80

IP FALL 2015 Class 2 国際政治基礎B fall 2015 class 2

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