国際政治基礎A SPRING 2015 CLASS 11 LECTURE 9
- 1. Fundamental Concepts of International Politics Spring 2015 Prof. H. Steven Green Toyo University Faculty of Law CLASS 11, LECTURE 9 June 22, 2015 HARD POWER, SOFT POWER
- 2. HARD POWER The threat (active or passive) or use of military or economic resources.
- 3. HARD POWER: Carrots & Sticks
- 4. HARD POWER: Military power Military power • People (Soldiers) • Weapons (tanks, aircraft, ships etc.) • And the infrastructure* that supports these. *infrastructure =兵器及び弾薬であつて軍の用 のインフラ
- 5. What can states do with military power? • Fight Wars – Offense (Attack) – Defense • Coerce 強制する – Compel • Use or threat to use force in order to make another state change its behavior. – Deter 抑止 • Threaten to use force in order to prevent another state from doing something you do not want it to do.
- 6. Non-military uses of military power • Coercive Diplomacy (sticks) – Much of diplomacy is based upon coercion, either military or economic • Protection (carrots for friends; share your stick with friends) – Allies 同盟国と友好国 – Some argue that US protection was necessary to start project of European Union • Assistance (not really a carrot, or a stick: not used to coerce) – US military assistance after tsunamis in Southeast Asia and Japan created a lot of goodwill (大いに友好を深める), which may enhance another kind of power
- 7. Non-military uses of military power US Military Security Umbrella over Japan & South Korea (ROK) *Protects Japan & South Korea. *China & ROK worry less about Japan. *Japan and South Korea can develop *ROK & Japan worry less about China their economies and spend less money or North Korea. for defense. Military power is not used but it helps non-military goals.
- 8. Non-military uses of military power Military power is not used but it helps non-military goals. The US military makes the security dilemma less worrisome for most countries in East Asia.
- 9. Europe & Japan after World War II
- 11. AN EXAMPLE OF HARD POWER’S EFFECTS BEYOND THE USE OF FORCE Political Stability (in devastated countries after WWII) Reduces others’ fears of Germany and Japan rising again. Reduces fears about the security effects of uneven wealth levels between countries and the insecurity of being interdependent. Created solidarity of facing common threat (USSR) U.S. provides security umbrella for allies in W. Europe and E. Asia Necessary for economic cooperation Decreases fears of cooperation Motivates states to cooperate Creation and maintenance of the int’l economic system Diagram of Robert Art’s argument for how force undergirds the post-war international economy. (Shows spillover effects)
- 12. HARD POWER: Economic power Economic power Use of resources & wealth to influence behavior. • Market access 市場参入 (access = carrots, take away access = stick) • Sanctions 制裁 (sticks) • Aid 援助 (carrots) REMEMBER: Economic power is HARD power
- 13. What can states do with economic power? Similar to military power… • Coerce 強制する –Compel • Use or threaten to use certain economic instruments in order to make another state change its behavior. –Deter 抑止 • Threaten to use certain economic instruments to prevent another state from doing something you do not want it to do.
- 14. Market access 市場参入 (carrots usually)) NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement
- 17. Sanctions: Oil Embargo 石油貿易禁止 • 1973 oil embargo against West and Japan by OPEC (オペック、石油輸出国機構)
- 18. Yom Kippur War • Oct. 6, 1973: Syria & Egypt attack Israel (10 Middle East & North African Countries (+Cuba) support E. and S.) • The US & Western Europe support Israel • Israel wins the war in less than 3 weeks but… • Took territory in Syria
- 19. OPEC Oil Embargo • To punish the West for supporting Israel, the Arab members of OPEC imposed an oil embargo (原油輸出禁止措置を課す) on the US, Western Europe and Japan • On Oct. 16, 1973 OPEC raised oil prices by 70% and then raised it 5% several times until March, 1974 • The US persuaded Israel to leave Syria.
- 20. 1973 Oil Crisis • Price of gasoline increased by 400% • There was not enough gasoline for consumers • Unemployment and inflation were the highest since 1945
- 21. HARD POWER: Economic power REVIEW Use of resources & wealth to influence behavior. • Market access 市場参入 (access = carrots, take away access = stick) • Sanctions 制裁 (sticks) • Aid 援助 (carrots) REMEMBER: Economic power is HARD power
- 22. Soft power: Getting others to WANT what you want. Soft Power
- 23. Hard power = carrots and sticks Resources: Wealth and weapons Soft power = attraction Soft power resources: Values, ideas, culture
- 24. Admiration & emulation are basis for soft power. If people admire you or want the same things you want, then: • They will not threaten you • They will cooperate with you • Populations will encourage their governments to be like you States want more soft power
- 25. EXAMPLES OF USA’s SOFT POWER • Business, pop culture, education • Google, Madonna, Hollywood, Harvard, – economic creativity and success, fun music, movies that show a dynamic, free society and excellent education – People around the world see democracy at all levels of government, including women’s right to vote – People see the ability for change to happen in the US system – People see all of this AND the world’s wealthiest country
- 26. Soft Power and Gaventa’s “Third Dimension” Power Form of Power: Third Dimension: Situated Social Power A has power over B if A can influence or create what B wants indirectly. •Idea- or culture-based power: What B thinks it wants is created by A.
- 27. Chinese protesters’ Statue of Liberty in Tiananmen Square, 1989
- 28. Pope John Paul II visits Poland, 1979 (Pope = ローマ法王)
- 29. SOFT POWER The attractiveness of values, political ideals, and culture… • Soft power can be nice – Asians like the image of Japan they see in manga and anime: wealthy, creative, dynamic, equality for men and women – Asians’ image of Japan has become good
- 30. SOFT POWER The attractiveness of values, political ideals, and culture… • Soft power can be nasty. – Osama Bin Laden’s followers liked his idea of a religious-based tyranny
- 31. SOFT POWER Soft power Cooptation Admiration & emulation Soft power 反対者の取り込み 感心と競争心
- 32. SOFT POWER According to Nye- • Hard power is necessary to fight terrorists • Soft power is necessary to persuade people who might be sympathetic with terrorists
- 33. SOFT POWER Admiration & emulation are basis for power. If people admire you and want to be like you, or want the same things you want, then: • They will not threaten you • They will cooperate with you • Populations will encourage their governments to cooperate with or be like you
- 34. CRITICISMS OF THE SOFT POWER IDEA • No one doubts the idea of hard power. • The only question is whether it is used well or used morally. But… • Critics say “soft power” is NOT really a kind of power (it does not influence others to change).
- 35. CRITICISM 1 Soft Power has never made a friend out of an enemy. It makes allies closer. • Germany and Japan became close to the United States AFTER they were defeated in war. • Germans and Japanese wanted democracy and American cultural values AFTER their governments were defeated by HARD POWER.
- 36. CRITICISM 2 The popularity of a country’s images does not make the country’s policy popular. • Hollywood, & other products from American culture have always been popular but Vietnam and Iraq wars were very unpopular. • Love of American culture and values does not mean support for American policies. • Anime and manga are popular in China: Chinese people are angry about territorial and war issues, anyway.
- 39. Soft Power and Gaventa’s “Third Dimension” Power 3rd Dimension power strongest within a state States can control education policy, media, and political rules within its own borders. Difficult for state to control another state’s culture and values.
- 40. CRITICISM 3 Soft power might help undermine* an enemy’s population but the threat of hard power is what makes states change. • People in USSR admired American culture, wanted freedom like Americans but… • Without threat of US power, USSR government could not change. *弱体化する
- 41. CRITICISM 4 Even if it does work, soft power cannot be easily created, nor can it be easily deployed: • The president cannot call up the State Department and say “Deploy our soft power! Send hip-hop musicians and Coca-Cola to subvert al Qaeda!” (deploy 配置する subvert 覆す)
- 42. ATTEMPTS TO USE SOFT POWER • Radio Free America during Cold War: Music, news, ideas • Confucius (孔子) Institutes created by People’s Republic of China • Li Changchun: An “important part of China’s overseas propaganda set-up”.
- 43. ATTEMPTS TO USE SOFT POWER 2010 “New Growth Strategy” of Japanese government: “Strategies for intellectual property and standardization and exporting ‘Cool Japan’.” NHK “Cool Japan” http://www.nhk.or.jp/cooljapan/
- 46. • 日本の憲法第9条 “Peace Constitution” “The world will admire Japan.”
- 48. Hard power & the “Peace Constitution” US Military Security Umbrella over Japan & South Korea (ROK) *Protects Japan & South Korea. *China & ROK do not worry about Japan. *Japan and South Korea can develop *ROK & Japan do not worry about China their economies and spend less money or North Korea. for defense. PLUS: Japan can promote Article 9 as soft power, but keep own military.
- 49. SOFT POWER • Promoting trade is NOT soft power • Promoting cultural products IS soft power. • Promoting soft power is inexpensive and is a bit like a company’s PR (public relations) work. QUESTION: Does soft power actually work? Is it POWER or is it just PR? PR might get people to like you but can it make them do something they might not do otherwise?
- 50. POWER: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER Coercion: (Military OR Economic) Compel Deter War-fighting: (Military) Attack Defend Hard Power Soft Power Repellant Pre-emptive Preventive Denial Punishment Denial Risk Punishment Admiration & Emulation Type Mode Goal Mechanism Variants You do not need to know these now, they are a preview of future issues •General v. Immediate •Nuclear v. Conventional •Primary v. Extended Cooptation DON’T WORRY ABOUT THIS PART RIGHT NOW: MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THE OTHER PARTS- THE TYPES, MODES and GOALS of POWER.
- 51. AN EXAMPLE OF HARD POWER’S EFFECTS BEYOND THE USE OF FORCE Political Stability (in devastated countries after WWII) Reduces others’ fears of Germany and Japan rising again. Reduces fears about the security effects of uneven wealth levels between countries and the insecurity of being interdependent. Created solidarity of facing common threat (USSR) U.S. provides security umbrella for allies in W. Europe and E. Asia Necessary for economic cooperation Decreases fears of cooperation Motivates states to cooperate Creation and maintenance of the int’l economic system Diagram of Robert Art’s argument for how force undergirds the post-war international economy. (Shows spillover effects)
- 52. See you next week!