![Correlation Fallacy Example
Young children who sleep with the light on are
much more likely to develop myopia in later life.
Therefore, sleeping with the light on causes myopia.
This is a scientific example that resulted from a study at
the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center. Published in
the May 13, 1999 issue ofNature,[5] the study received much
coverage at the time in the popular press.[6]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/iscorrelationcauseandefectbydeanberry-180403234048/85/Is-correlation-cause-and-effect-by-Dean-Berry-28-320.jpg)
Is correlation cause and effect? by Dean Berry
- 1. Logical Fallacies: The Problems with Correlational Data
- 2. The Correlation Fallacy A Common Core Lesson By Dean Berry, Ed. D. Gregg Berry, B. A. Common Core Curriculum Solutions www.commoncorecurriculum.info
- 3. Common Core Reading Standards Delineate and evaluate the argument and specific claims in a text, assessing whether the reasoning is sound and the evidence is relevant and sufficient; recognize when irrelevant evidence is introduced.
- 4. Common Core Speaking and Listening Standards Engage effectively in a range of collaborative discussions (one-on- one, in groups, and teacher-led) with diverse partners on topics, texts, and issues, building on others’ ideas and expressing their own clearly.
- 5. Common Core Speaking and Listening Standards Delineate a speaker’s argument and specific claims, evaluating the soundness of the reasoning and relevance and sufficiency of the evidence and identifying when irrelevant evidence is introduced.
- 6. Reading with Your Eyes and Your Brain Skillful readers learn how to read persuasive or opinionated text with a very critical eye. They realize that the author’s purpose is to convince the reader to believe what the author is saying and to consider the arguments given as valid even if they violate logical reasoning and lack supporting evidence. The author’s motive may be to get the reader to buy something, vote a certain way, change an attitude, or behave differently.
- 7. • In order to avoid manipulation by the author, good readers learn how to detect poor reasoning and faulty arguments. They are able to identify the various logical fallacies such as begging the question, strawman, overgeneralization, correlation errors, and others. During this lesson, we will study the problem of cause and effect correlation fallacies.
- 8. Let’s take a closer look at cause and effect. What is cause? Cause is defined as the reason, motive, purpose or justification for an event or situation. Example: The cause of success may be hard work, perseverance, careful planning, correct decision making, and other factors.
- 9. What is Effect? Effect is the consequence, action, or event. Example: The effect of being thrifty is to have savings.
- 10. The why and what of cause and effect
- 11. What do thunderclouds cause?
- 12. Every effect must have a cause!
- 13. Use your own paper and put the causes on the left side and the results(or effects) on the right side. • 1. We received seven inches of rain in four hours A. the light came on • 2. Many buffalo were killed B. A basketball player was traveling. • 3. Many deaths to wildlife C. Buffalo almost became extinct. • 4. The boss was busy D. Many deaths to wildlife • 5. I flipped the light switch on E. I have 5 cavities. • 6. The referee called a penalty. F. The doctor put it in a cast. • 7. Childhood obesity G. The streets were snow-packed and icy. - He broke his arm. • 8. Sedentary lifestyle H. The underpass was flooded. • 9. Her secretary took a message I. Smoking cigarettes • 10. Lung cancer J. An oil spill
- 14. Label the cause and effect in each sentence. • 1. When water is heated, the molecules move quickly, therefore the water boils. • 2. A tornado blew the roof off the house, and as a result, the family had to find another place to live. • 3. Because the alarm was not set, we were late for work. • 4. The moon has gravitational pull, consequently the oceans have tides. • 5. Since school was canceled, we went to the mall. • 6. John made a rude comment, so Elise hit him. • 7. When the ocean is extremely polluted, coral reefs die. • 8. The meal we ordered was cheaper than expected, so we ordered dessert. • 9. Since helium rises, a helium balloon floats. • 10. There has been an increase in greenhouse gases, therefore global warming is happening.
- 15. Label the cause and effect in each sentence. • Some believe dinosaurs died out because a large meteor hit the earth. • I had to get the mop since I spilled my juice. • Tsunamis happen when tectonic plates shift. • Fred was driving 75 in a 35 mile zone, therefore he got a speeding ticket. • Because of changes in classifications, Pluto is no longer a planet. • Maria didn’t follow the recipe correctly, so the cake did not come out as expected. • The weather forecast called for rain, so he took his umbrella. • Because of a price increase, sales are down. • Water is formed when two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom combine. • The baby was crying, so Dad picked him up. • I learned to play the drums quickly because I took lessons from a pro.
- 16. Correlation Implies Causation Fallacy This is a fallacy in which the person making the argument connects two events which happen simultaneously or at the same rate and assumes that one caused the other. For example: “Every time it rains, there are many accidents on the road. Therefore, driving in the rain causes more accidents.” This may be true or not true. This correlation does not prove that rain causes more accidents on the road.
- 17. Example Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache. Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headaches.
- 18. The prior example commits the correlation-implies- causation fallacy, as it prematurely concludes that sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. A more plausible explanation is that both are caused by a third factor, in this case going to bed when overly exhausted, which thereby gives rise to a correlation. So the conclusion is false.
- 19. Does correlation imply causation? Many research studies are designed to see if one action, such as eating a diet high in sugar and saturated fat, is directly related to higher illness rates such as heart disease. If the study shows that people who eat such a diet have much higher rates of heart disease than people who eat low sugar and low saturated fat diets, the researchers may conclude that there is a high correlation between the two events.
- 20. While such correlations suggest that one event may cause the other, scientists cannot conclude that high sugar and high fat diets definitely cause heart disease. Correlations are not direct proof of cause and effect.
- 21. Wow! Shark attacks and ice cream sales are closely correlated.
- 22. The sun causes sun burns and ice cream to melt. Therefore, sunburn causes ice cream to melt. Is this a fallacy? Why?
- 23. Does this chart suggest a fallacy? Why?
- 24. As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning death increases sharply. Therefore, ice cream consumption causes drowning or does it. Examine this example of correlation fallacy.
- 25. Ice Cream Consumption Causes Drowning? • The aforementioned example fails to recognize the importance of time and temperature in relationship to ice cream sales. Ice cream is sold during the hot summer months at a much greater rate than during colder times, and it is during these hot summer months that people are more likely to engage in activities involving water, such as swimming. The increased drowning deaths are simply caused by more exposure to water-based activities, not ice cream. The stated conclusion is false.
- 26. Is it likely that organic food causes autism? Are there any other reasons that both events increased at a similar rate during the last 10 years?
- 27. Correlation does not imply causation is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that a correlation between two variables does not necessarily mean that one causes the other.
- 28. Correlation Fallacy Example Young children who sleep with the light on are much more likely to develop myopia in later life. Therefore, sleeping with the light on causes myopia. This is a scientific example that resulted from a study at the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center. Published in the May 13, 1999 issue ofNature,[5] the study received much coverage at the time in the popular press.[6]
- 29. Myopia Study was Flawed However, a later study at Ohio State University did not find that infants sleeping with the light on caused the development of myopia. It did find a strong link between parental myopia and the development of child myopia, also noting that myopic parents were more likely to leave a light on in their children's bedroom. In this case, the cause of both conditions is parental myopia, and the above-stated conclusion is false.
- 30. Confusing association with causation This is similar to the post-hoc fallacy in that it assumes cause and effect for two variables simply because they occur together. This fallacy is often used to give a statistical correlation a causal interpretation. For example, data shows that more traffic accidents occur during the summer than during the spring. Since the summer months are warmer than spring months, we conclude that warmer weather causes more traffic accidents. However, these two events, warmer weather and traffic accidents, are only associated with each other and the months when they occur. This does not establish a cause and effect relationship.
- 31. Association is Not Causation For example, during the 1990’s both religious attendance and illegal drug use have been on the rise. It would be a fallacy to conclude that therefore, religious attendance causes illegal drug use. It is also possible that drug use leads to an increase in religious attendance, or that both drug use and religious attendance are increased by a third variable, such as an increase in societal unrest. It is also possible that both variables are independent of one another, and it is mere coincidence that they are both increasing at the same time
- 32. Is Correlational Research Always a Fallacy? This fallacy, however, has a tendency to be abused, or applied inappropriately, to deny all statistical evidence. In fact, this constitutes a logical fallacy in itself, the denial of causation. This abuse takes two basic forms. The first is to deny the significance of correlations that are demonstrated with prospective controlled data, such as would be acquired during a clinical experiment.
- 33. Controlling the key variables produces the most reliable data in a research study. The problem with assuming cause and effect from mere correlation is not that a causal relationship is impossible, it’s just that there are other variables that must be considered and not ruled out a-priori. A controlled trial, however, by its design attempts to control for as many variables as possible in order to maximize the probability that a positive correlation is in fact due to a causation.
- 34. Does salary, job satisfaction, or years employed have the most significant effect on job performance?
- 35. What are some of the variables in a classroom that can have an effect on student learning? Turn to your neighbor and make a list of several variables that you believe may have a significant effect on how much students learn in class.
- 36. Does where a student sits in the classroom have a high correlation with the course grades he/she receives? Use a piece of paper to list where(front, middle, back) you usually choose to sit in classrooms (when you have a choice) and the grades(approximate)that you usually get in those classes. Do not share this information with others. Do not put your name on your paper. Fold your paper in half and pass it forward. We will tabulate the results and examine a possible correlation.
- 37. The issue to be determined is whether or not viewing nurse Killams’s videos will result in higher grades for students.
- 38. Write a possible cause and effect statement based on the independent variables and dependent variable given below.
- 39. Use of correlation as scientific evidence Much of scientific evidence is based upon a correlation of variables that are observed to occur together. Scientists are careful to point out that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. The assumption that A causes B simply because A correlates with B is often not accepted as a legitimate form of argument.
- 40. Correlation data my be a valid argument. However, sometimes people commit the opposite fallacy – dismissing correlation entirely, as if it does not suggest causation at all. This would dismiss a large swath of important scientific evidence. Since it may be difficult or ethically impossible to run controlled double-blind studies, correlational evidence from several different angles may be the strongest causal evidence available.
- 41. Correlational data may point us in the right direction. The combination of limited available methodologies with the dismissing correlation fallacy has on occasion been used to counter a scientific finding. For example, the tobacco industry has historically relied on a dismissal of correlational evidence to reject a link between tobacco and lung cancer.
- 42. Correlation is a valuable type of scientific evidence in fields such as medicine, psychology, and sociology. But first, correlations must be confirmed as real, and then every possible causative relationship must be systematically explored.
- 43. Pair Share Let’s look at the issue of human longevity. Think about why some people seem to live much longer than other people. Meet in pairs or small groups and make a list of factors that might be involved with improving people’s life span. Try to identify at least five factors that might be involved. Report back to the class.
- 44. Class Discussion Let’s design a correlational study to see which of these factors may be highly correlated to living a longer life. Select three of the factors identified by the class. Draw a cause and effect diagram showing the relationship between the three factors and the desired effect.
- 45. Create Some Research Data We are going to make this activity a simulation since we do not have the data that we need. The class will vote on each factor and it’s effect on length of life. Of course, this is just guesswork and not real data. On a piece of paper, list the three factors and award each one points(1-10)with ten meaning that you believe that the factor is very highly correlated to living a long life and one meaning that you believe that the actor is much less important for human longevity. Now let’s summarize all of our results and write a correlation statement reflecting our data.
- 46. For example, heart disease may be caused by many factors including lack of exercise, diabetes, obesity, stress, cholesterol, and saturated fats. In fact, most complex events like heart disease are difficult to study because each possible causal factor has to be considered a possible variable that can cause heart disease. If all of the significant variables are considered in a research study, the correlations of these variables with heart disease can lead to powerful scientific information. In the end, correlation can be used as important evidence for a cause-and-effect relationship between a treatment and benefit, a risk factor and a disease, or a social or economic factor and various outcomes
- 47. Additional Common Core Standards Covered
- 48. Reading Standards Cite the textual evidence that most strongly supports an analysis of what the text says explicitly as well as inferences drawn from the text.
- 49. Writing Standards Use words, phrases, and clauses to create cohesion and clarify the relationships among claim(s), counterclaims, reasons, and evidence.
- 50. 50 Copyright Protected © 2015 Dean R. Berry All Rights Reserved No part of this document may be reproduced without written permission from the author