Isis 2020

Islamic State
Prof. Dr. Maria Bordas
National University of Public Service
Faculty of Public Governance and International Relations
2020.

OUTLINE
Roots of Islamic State (IS)
Characteristic of IS
Economics of IS
Reaction of World and Latest
development
Conclusions and Q/A session

1. Roots of Islamic State
Al-Zarqawi, al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI);
The tactics of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi were
considered too extreme by al-Qaida leaders;
Death 2006
AQI
Islamic State
in Iraq (ISI)

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
2010: Leader of ISI
2012: Creation of al-Nusra Front in Syria
April 2013: split of al-Nusra Front and creation of Islamic
State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
June 2013: ISIL more frequantly named as
The Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)
„Caliph Ibrahim”

ISIL
Islamic State
in Iraq and
the Levant
(ISIL)

ISIS
December 2013: alliance with former Saddam’s
military and Sunni militias, tribesmen
Occupation of FALLUDJA
Avril 2014: break with al-Qaeda
June 2014: overran MOSUL, advance towards
Baghdad
July 2014: ISIS Declares the Caliphate

2. Characteristic of IS
It is really a state?

What is Islamic State?
Islamic State (IS) is a Islamist terrorist group
that has seized large swathes of territory in
eastern Syria and across northern and
western Iraq.

The “Black Banner” or “Black
Standard.”
Mohammed: “the banner of the eagle”

„shahada”
„Khatam an-
Nabiyyin”
"Seal of the
Prophets"

Islamic State in numbers
Controlled area: 35,000 square miles
(roughly size of Jordan or Belgium*);
Troops: tripled in 2014, 100 000 – 130 000**;
In 2014: around 20 000 executed by IS;
Value of IS’s: 2 – 5 billion USD
Daily revenue: around $3,000,000 (oil, gas,
taxes, etc.)
* Just inhabited areas
**However, by November 2014, the Chief of Staff of Iraqi Kurdistan
estimated that ISIL had a total of 200,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria

IS territorial losses by end of 2016

Ethnic and religious composition of
Syria

Tribes and Major Confederation in Iraq
Basic unit: Khams
(extended family)
Second level: Biet /house/
(vast extended family)
Number of houses: clan or
fakhdh
Group of clans:
Ashira or tribe
Group of tribes:
Qabila
(confederation)

largest ethnic group without a state

Division of Kurds
PKK est.:
10 000 fighters
Pesmerga:
150 000 fighters
YPG:
approx. 60 000 fighters

Two legs of IS: 1st
Syria
2011: Syrian Civil War;

More than 215,000 dead in four
years of Syria war

2nd leg: Iraq
2011: US withdrawal from Iraq;
2012: series of attacks, situation is worsening
2013: permanent Sunni protest and upheaval,
brutal governmental reactions (Hawija)

ISIS used the security gap
the protest movement went into insurgency,
explosion on 10th of June, request for
autonomy Sunni regions
Marriage with ISIS

Current
situation
as of
16/02
2017

Strategic
level
Opeartional level
Tactical level

Abu Arkan al Amiri
Abu Muhammad al Adnani

Our Old Friend: Omar al-Shishani
The Chechen

Air campaign against IS
(Operation Inherent Resolve lead
by U.S. Central Command)

„Jihadi John” alias
Mohammed Emwazi
He was killed in an air
strike lead by U.S.
forces last November
Confirmed by IS

Turkey
TR is supporting IS and Palestine terrorists

YPG is valuable ally for US but it is
a terrorist group for Turkey

Air assets
3 fighters (Sukhoi) of IS has been shout
down by Syrian Air Force

More than 2000 airstrikes
• More than 3000 targets (58 tanks, 900 vehicles,
52 bunkers, 673 combat position, around 1000
other buildings)
• Around 5000 bombs
• 15 000 combat sorties
F/A-18F Super Hornet

Results of air strikes
2000 killed fighters of IS
costing about $8 million daily
LIMITED and
VERY
COSTLY!!!!

IS reaction to the air strikes

Mixt of conventional and
asymmetric army

The best weapon: media
al-Furqan Institute for Media Production
the al-Hayat Media Center
the Ajnad Media Foundation
use of social media

al-Furqan Institute for Media
Production

Ethnic and religious cleansing

Extreme brutality against Christians

29 July 2014:
Butchering
1500 POWs of
Iraq’s Army

Iraqi sinkhole mass grave for
4,000 ISIS victims

Quasi-state
Anthem: "My Nation, Dawn Has Appeared”
(Dawn is the name of IS in Arabic language)
Motto:
"Remaining and
Expanding

Motto
„To wage war, you need first of all money;
second, you need money, and third, you
also need money”
/Prince Raimondo Montecuccoli/

The ISIS Business Model
8 million people are living under IS control
ISIS has created a number of revenue streams
“half-mafia-style commercial enterprise, half
pious international charity”
significant difference between ISIS and other
terrorist organizations is that ISIS has managed
to establish its own economy that is mostly
cash-based

OIL
38%
NATURAL GAS
17%
CEMENT
10%
PHOSPHATE
10%
EXTORSION
12%
K&R
4%
DONATIONS
2%
WHEAT
7%
Islamic State funding sources by type

The looting of banks in Mosul in 2014
20 private banks
and 15 or so
government
bank branches
2 bn USD

Taxation and extortion
Islamic State generates up to $360 million
per year though taxation and extortion
Customs tax and passage fees (Drivers have
reported paying anywhere from $200 to $1,000
in fees and bribes to move goods into IS
territory in Iraq)
Business tax: 10-35%
Utilities tax: 20 USD/month
Religious tax: Christians: half an ounce of
pure gold (to secure their protection)

Underground
trade of
antiquities

Palmira
Several hundreds places like Palmira

Statues from Palmira
Approx. 250 000 $ each

Tax on illicit trade of antiquities
IS is taxing the illicit trade under the Islamic
principle of Al-Khums (the Arabic word for one-
fifth)

Donations to ISIS
Rich individuals of Gulf states
Exp.: Abdulrahman al-Nuaymi (Qatar) 2 m USD
~ 100 m USD/year

Slave
trade
around 4,000 Yazidi women and girls

Selling Human Organs
Approx. 2 million
USD / year

Kidnappings
80 journalist kidnapped
about 20 percent of ISIS’s revenue
ISIS has received $20 million in ransoms
so far this year

around 300 oil wells in Iraq alone

Oil in Syria
ISIS possesses about 60 percent of
Syria’s total production capacity
around 385,000 barrels a day

The ISIS Economy
No female-run businesses;
IS decide on prices and people have to accept
that and deal with it;
ISIS controls every detail of the economy;
„Good Life” is just propaganda – reality: heavy
taxation and high unemployment
Meat and chicken are only for ISIS
ISIS’s economic persecution is a deliberate
tactic to force people to capitulate and
support the extremists

Financing terror
Muslim Financing House (Central Bank)
90 banks in Iraq, 100 banks is Syria
Own currency

Coalition against IS
62 countries
against IS
(although most play no direct role in the air
strikes) US, UK, France, Bahrain, Jordan,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates /Iran, the BACKER

Operation Inherent Resolve
U.S. and coalition have conducted a total of 8,125 strikes
(5,321 Iraq / 2,804 Syria).
U.S. has conducted 6,353 strikes in Iraq and Syria (3,695 Iraq /
2,658 Syria)
The countries that have participated in the strikes include:
*In Iraq: (1) Australia, (2) Belgium, (3) Canada, (4) Denmark,
(5) France, (6) Jordan, (7) The Netherlands, and (8) UK
*In Syria: (1) Australia, (2) Bahrain, (3) Canada, (4) France, (5)
Jordan, (6) Saudi Arabia, (7) Turkey and (8) UAE

Cost of Operation
As of Jan. 31, 2016, the total cost of
operations related to ISIL since kinetic
operations started on Aug. 8, 2014, is $9,5
billion and the average daily cost is $11
million for 540 days of operations

Latest development
Cyber attack of ANONYMUS
„War is declared. Get prepared”

Burning alive of
Jordanian pilot

Jordan: revenge and “earth-
shattering” response

Barqa Province of the Islamic State.
(Islamic state in Libya)

Islamic State’s expansion plan

Islamic State affiliates in North
Africa

Egypt bloodies war against
terrorism

Terrorist serial attacks in Paris

Tikrit
More than 1 month of fight
20-30000 versus 1-2000
Mainly Shia militia + Islamic Republican Guard

Lesson learnds
Lot of IEDs, car bombs, snipers
Too many KIAs
Need for Combat Engineers
Military Capabilities of IS are underestimated
5 days 5 weeks

Recapture Ramadi
7 month of fight
600 US-led coalition airstrikes
F-16 fighter jets flown by Iraqi pilots
the composition of the Iraqi military forces
– Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS)
– formations from the 8th Iraqi Army Division
– local police, and tribal fighters from the Anbar
province.
– Shia militia just secondary role

Finally Turkey has decided to
fight against IS
4,000–8,000 troops

GERMANY
Germany to send up to 1,200 troops;
Six reconnaissance jets;
satellite reconnaissance;
Air tanker

Al Bagdadi killed on 26/10/2019

New leader
Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli al-
Salbi;
one of the terror group’s founding members and
has led the enslavement of Iraq’s Yazidi
minority

December 2019: The Year the
Islamic State Lost Its Last
Strongholds

Conclusion
Many of its militants are now in
prison, but that doesn’t mean the
battle is over. In 2020, conflict
could rise anew.
each party is fighting its own war

Conclusion
With so many ex-Islamic State
foreign fighters in prisons in
different countries now, their
recruitment base has only
grown.
America’s conflict with Iran is
making the fight against it more
complicated

Thank you for your attention!
Questions?

Isis 2020

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Similar to Isis 2020 (14)

More from Janos Tomolya (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Isis 2020