Key findings of AR5 for the ASEAN region
- 1. IPCC AR5: Key finding of AR5 for the ASEAN region Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal Associate professor Asian Institute of Technology shobhakar@ait.ac.th Coordinating Lead Author, IPCC 5th Assessment Report- Mitigation IPCC Media Workshop and Press Conference 14 October 2016, 13:00-16:30 pm Novotel Bangkok on Siam Square
- 2. IPCC, 2014 Across Southeast Asia, temperature has been increasing at 1°C per century, coupled with a rising number of hot days and warm nights, and a decline in cooler weather
- 3. Already observed impacts of climate change Executive Summary of Working Group 2 Report, IPCC AR5, 2014.
- 4. Observation of past events and future projections Asia ◦ Heatwave (likely that frequency has increased in large part} ◦ Droughts (draught in monsoon Asia and wetter in central Asia) ◦ Floods (enhanced in eastern Asia and India) ◦ …………But no specific observations for SE Asia; lack of attribution studies Future projections over SE Asia ◦ 3-5ᵒC projected temperature increase ◦ 0.4 – 0.6 m sea level rise ◦ Increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon ◦ Low confidence on future projections of regional climate extremes IPCC, 2014
- 5. Key risks and adaptation issues and prospects for Asia from recent IPCC AR5 report IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 6. Increased risk of flood- related deaths, injuries, infectious diseases and mental disorders (medium confidence) Increased risk of water and vector-borne diseases (medium confidence) Exacerbated poverty, inequalities and new vulnerabilities (high confidence) Key risks and adaptation issues and prospects for Asia from recent IPCC AR5 report IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 7. Increased risk of crop failure and lower crop production could lead to food insecurity in Asia (medium confidence) Key Risks in Asia Water shortage in arid areas of Asia (medium confidence) Key risks and adaptation issues and prospects for Asia from recent IPCC AR5 report IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 8. Coral reef decline in Asia (high confidence) Mountain-top extinctions in Asia (high confidence) Key risks and adaptation issues and prospects for Asia from recent IPCC AR5 report IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 9. South East Asia’s future risks 1. Key areas of concern 1. Warmer temperature 2. More intense precipitation events 3. Large variations of rainfall and temperature associated with ENSO 4. Changes in monsoon 5. Sea level rise 6. Warmer ocean & acidification 2. Risk concern range from coastal and river flooding, with the potential for widespread damage, to heat-related mortality, to water and food shortages following drought 3. Due to projected sea level rise, a million or so people along the coasts of South and Southeast Asia will likely be at risk from flooding IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 10. Key areas of adaptation already happening in SE Asia: Examples I. Development Planning considering Adaptation II. Early Warning Systems of climatic events III. Mangrove Reforestation IV. Water Resources Management V. Others IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 11. Regional patterns of GHG emissions. 11 Based on Figure 1.6 IPCC, 2014
- 12. Net transfer of CO2 emissions between world regions in 2007. Flow widths represent the magnitude of emissions (in MtCO2) released by left-hand side regions that have become embodied in the goods and services consumed by the regions listed on the right-hand side IPCC WGII Report, 2014
- 13. ASEAN NDCs Country Target type GHG emissions reduction target Target year Reference year Conditions for implementation Lao Actions and activities Share of renewable energy to 30% of energy consumption by 2025; forest cover to 70% by 2020 2025 N/A Requires technical and financial support as low interest loans to deliver the mitigation and adaptation actions Cambodia Some targets but actions and activities 0 - 27% 2030 BAU The target is “conditional upon the availability of support from the international community… in the form of financing, capacity building, and technology transfer” (estimated to USD 1,27 billions) Indonesia Reductions from BAU 29-41% 2030 BAU A further emission reduction of 12% (from 29%) is conditional on international assistance, especially through “bilateral cooperation covering technology development and transfer, capacity building, payment for performance mechanisms, technical cooperation and access to financial resources”. Myanmar Actions and activities Significant reductions in GHG emissions, but further analysis needed for quantification 2030 N/A Support for capacity-building, technology development and transfer, and financial resources from the international community Philippines Reductions from BAU 0- 70% 2030 BAU Conditional on the extent of financial resources, including technology development and transfer, and capacity building 13 Compiled from country submissions to UNFCCC @Shobhakar Dhakal
- 14. ASEAN NDCs Country Target type GHG emissions reduction target Target year Reference year Conditions for implementation Singapore Emission intensity of GDP 36% GHG emissions per unit of GDP 2030 2005 N/A Thailand Reductions from BAU 20-25% 2030 BAU The upper end target is “subject to adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources and capacity building support through a balanced and ambitious global agreement under UNFCCC” Viet Nam Reductions from BAU 8-25% 2030 BAU The upper bound requires “bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and implementation of new mechanisms under the Global Climate Agreement” Malaysia Emission intensity of GDP 35-45% 2030 2005 Upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building from developed countries Brunei Actions and activities 63% energy consumption reduction from BAU by 2035; 10% renewable in power generation mix by 2035; specific measures in transport and forestry sectors 2035 N/A 14 Compiled from country submissions to UNFCCC @Shobhakar Dhakal
- 15. Final remarks 1. Better attribution to past events, better future projection and impact studies are necessary for risk-informed decision – flooding, heat, water shortages, coastal areas are key risks for SE Asia 2. Effective risk management and adaptation must be tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances of SE Asia 3. Emissions from SE Asia is rising; also SE Asia is net emission exporter 4. The mitigation pathways must be found- complete decarbonization of energy system, best practice technology upscaling, innovative policies, better coordination and cooperation are necessary. 5. INDC are good starting points but it is obvious that more ambitions are needed for the region for low climate stabilization pathways (author’s opinion)
- 16. IPCC WGII Report, 2014
Editor's Notes
- #12: Most of the emissions growth has taken place where economic development has been most rapid – today and in the past. Most of the recent emission increases have been concentrated in the fastest growing regions in the developing world. From 2000 to 2010 about 75% of the 10 GtCO2eq increase in total annual GHG emissions took place in upper middle income countries. 18% of the emission growth occurred in lower middle income countries and 7% in low income countries, while GHG emission levels in high income countries remained stable at high levels. For most low and lower-middle income countries, the largest source of emissions is AFOLU. The GHG emission shares of the energy and industry sectors tend to increase with income, and these are typically the largest sectors for upper middle and high income countries. Transport is a large sector for high income countries.