![Fig. 1. Record female life expectancy from 1840 to the present [suppl. table 2 (1)].
The linear-regression trend is depicted by a bold black line (slope = 0.243) and the
extrapolated trend by a dashed gray line. The horizontal black lines show asserted
ceilings on life expectancy, with a short vertical line indicating the year of publication
(suppl. table 1). The dashed red lines denote projections of female life expectancy in
Japan published by the United Nations in 1986, 1999, and 2001 (1): It is encouraging
that the U.N. altered its projection so radically between 1999 and 2001.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/lecture1introduction-161130173108/85/Lecture-1-introduction-4-320.jpg)
Lecture 1 introduction
- 1. Lecture 1: Emergence of chronic diseases
- 2. Chronic disease topics and themes • Emergence of chronic diseases in modern populations • Disability and frailty as examples of the new chronic conditions • Quality of life as a key metric • Multivariable risk and risk prediction • Social networks and transmission of chronic disease risk • Fetal origins and life course exposures • Translational epidemiology • Chronic disease surveillance systems • Geospatial risk factors • Complexity and chronic disease
- 3. Prolongation of life expectancy among modern populations one of the major accomplishments of modernity. Characteristics of modern societies include: A. a worldview predicated on the European Enlightenment and subsequent scientific revolution , the idea of the world as an open transformation by human intervention; B. economic institutions based on industrial production and a capitalistic market economy; C. political institutions that include the nation-state, nationalism and mass democracy. D. social dynamism characterized by non-hierarchical, diverse and rapidly changing culture and conventions Conversations with Anthony Giddens: Making Sense of Modernity 1998. pg.94
- 4. Fig. 1. Record female life expectancy from 1840 to the present [suppl. table 2 (1)]. The linear-regression trend is depicted by a bold black line (slope = 0.243) and the extrapolated trend by a dashed gray line. The horizontal black lines show asserted ceilings on life expectancy, with a short vertical line indicating the year of publication (suppl. table 1). The dashed red lines denote projections of female life expectancy in Japan published by the United Nations in 1986, 1999, and 2001 (1): It is encouraging that the U.N. altered its projection so radically between 1999 and 2001.
- 5. Variability of life-expectancy over time Yrs • Classical Greece 28 • Classical Rome 28 • Medieval Britain 33 • 19th Century Western Europe 37 BCE 17,000-7,000 2,500 1,400 800-700 Galor, Oded and Moav, Omer, "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy" (October 12, 2005). Minerva Center for Economic Growth Paper No. 02-05 Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=563741
- 8. Nature 2009, 460; 741-743
- 10. Gavrilov L.A., Heuveline P.“Aging of Population.” In: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll (Eds.)The Encyclopedia of Population. New York, Macmillan Reference USA, 2003
- 14. Compression of morbidity and mortality hypotheses
- 15. Some characteristics of chronic diseases • Person – Multiple, non-specific risk factors – Disability prominent – Impact on quality of life important – Primary, secondary and tertiary prevention • Place – Asynchrony of emergence in different populations • Time – Duration of disease – Epidemic curve – Long latency – Fetal/childhood origin – Time dependency of risk factors • Societal – Expensive – Substantial socioeconomic, racial and geographic variability
- 16. ASCVD CVA Cancer Asthma Diabetes PUD CKD Tobacco X X X X X X X Alcohol X X X X Folate X X Cholesterol X X X HBP X X X Obesity X X X X X Inactivity X X X X Stress X X X Occupation X X X X Infectious agents ? X ? X X ? Multifactorial etiology of chronic diseases
- 19. Copyright restrictions may apply. Greenland, P. et al. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2002 31:1129-1134; doi:10.1093/ije/31.6.1129
Editor's Notes
- #6: Demographic transition. http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm