Lecture notes of production & operation management

Lectures notes
On
Production and Operation
Management
Prepared by
Dr. Sarojrani Pattnaik Dr. Swagatika Mishra
Assistant Professor
Department of Mechanical Engineering
VSSUT Burla
.

PRODUCTION AND OPERATION MANAGEMENT(3-0-0)
1. Productivity : Importance, productivity ratio, productivity measurement,
productivity index, awareness — improvement — maintenance (A.I.M)
proceSs.
2. Production System Models of production system, Product Vs. Services,
Process-focused & product focused systems, product strategies, product
life cycle, production function.
3. Forecasting : Methods — moving average, exponential smoothing,
Regression analysis, coefficient of co-relation, Delphi, Market survey.
4. Facilities Planning : Site location, facilities layout and various types,
planning using CRAFT work place design, working conditions — noise
illumination etc.
5. Motion study — principles of motion — economy, Time study-standard time.
6. Production Planning & Control : Aggregate planning. Sequencing, Line
balancing, Flow control, Dispatching, expediting, Gantt chart, line of
balance, learing curve.
7. Project Management — Network scheduling, PERT. Critical path, Most
likely time estimate , Resource leveling.
8. 38.Modern Trends in Manufacturing :Basic concepts of CAD,CAM,FMS, CIM,
ISO 9000, Quality circle, Kaizen, Kanbans, Poke Yoke' supply chain
management.
Text Books
1. Production Systems : Planning, Analysis & Control : By — Riggs, J.L.(4th
Edn.) John Wiley & Sons
2. Modern Production/Operation management : By — Buffa, E.S. & Sarin,
=,.K.(8`" Edn.) John Wiley & Sons.
3. Production & Operations Management : By Panneer saivem, R.(2'1
Edn.)
PHI
4. Production & Operations Management : By Chary, S.N.(TMH)

VEER SURENDRA SAI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY BURLAHA
DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL
LESSON PLAN FOR Production and Operation Management
SUBJECT CODE: 8th
Semester
Lecture Topics to be covered Remark
Lecture 1 Productivity: Importance, productivity ratio, productivity
measurement, productivity index
Lecture 2 Awareness – improvement – maintenance (A.I.M) process,
Production System, Models of production system
Lecture 3 Product Vs. Services, Process-focused & product- focused systems
Lecture 4 Product strategies, product life cycle, production function
Lecture 5 Forecasting: Methods
Lecture 6 Moving average, Exponential smoothing
Lecture 7 Regression analysis, coefficient of co-relation
Lecture 8 Delphi, Market survey
Lecture 9 Facilities planning: Site location, facilities layout
Lecture 10 Types of facility layout, Planning using CRAFT work place design
Lecture 11 Working conditions – noise illumination etc.
Lecture 12 Problems on single facility location using median method
Lecture 13 Problems on single facility location using minimax method and
gravity method
Lecture 14 Problems on single facility location using Euclidean-distance
location
Lecture 15 Motion study, Principles of motion- economy, method study
Lecture 16 Rules concerning human body, workplace layout and materials
handling,
Lecture 17 Rules concerning tools and equipments design, time conservation
Lecture 18 Time study and work measurement techniques

Lecture 19 Performance rating and different types of allowances
Lecture 20 Production planning and control- Aggregate planning
Lecture 21 Sequencing and line balancing
Lecture 22 Flow control
Lecture 23 Dispatching, centralized and decentralized dispatching
Lecture 24 Expediting and Gantt chart
Lecture 25 Line of balance and learning curve
Lecture 26 Project management, network scheduling
Lecture 27 PERT with problems
Lecture 28 Problems
Lecture 29 Critical path method with problems
Lecture 30 Problems
Lecture 31 Resource levelling
Lecture 32 Basic concepts of CAD, CAM, FMS
Lecture 33 CIM, JIT, ISO 9000
Lecture 34 Quality circle, Kaizen, Kanbans
Lecture 35 Poke Yoke, Supply chain management
Lecture 36 Revision of problems

CHAPTER-I
PRODUCTIVITY
1.1 Introduction
Production/Operation management is the process which combines and transforms various
resources used in the production/operation subsystem of the organization into value added
products/services in a controlled manner as per the policies of the organization.
Transform
(In controlled manner as
per the policies of the organization)
Production/Operation function:
The set of interrelated management activities which are involved in manufacturing certain
products is called production management and for service management, then corresponding set
of management activities is called as operation management.
Examples: (Products/goods)
Boiler with a specific capacity,
Constructing flats,
Car, bus, radio, television.
Examples: (Services)
Medical facilities,
Travel booking services.
In the process of managing various subsystems of the organization executives at
different levels of the organization need to track several management decisions.
The management decisions are Strategic, tactical and operational.
Defining goals Plant location effective and
Making policies new product establishment efficient utilization
Monitoring of budgets of resources
Resources used in
production/ operation
subsystem
Value added products/services
Range of inputs Required output (product/service)
(Having the requisite quality level)
Strategic (Top level) Tactical (Middle level) Operational (Bottom level)

2
Corrections from feedback information:
 Tight quality check on the incoming raw-material.
 Adjustment of machine settings.
 Change of tools.
 Proper allocation of operations to machines with matching skills.
 Change in the production plans.
1.2 Productivity:
Productivity is a relationship between the output (product/service) and input (resources
consumed in providing them) of a business system. The ratio of aggregate output to the
aggregate input is called productivity.
Productivity = output/Input
 For survival of any organization, this productivity ratio must be at least 1.If it is more
than 1, the organization is in a comfortable position. The ratio of output produced to the
input resources utilized in the production.
1.3 Importance:
Benefits derived from higher productivity are as follows:
 It helps to cut down cost per unit and thereby improve the profits.
 Gains from productivity can be transferred to the consumers in form of lower priced
Products or better quality products.
 These gains can also be shared with workers or employees by paying them at higher rate.
 A more productive entrepreneur can have better chances to exploit expert opportunities.
 It would generate more employment opportunity.
 Overall productivity reflects the efficiency of production system.
 More output is produced with same or less input.
 The same output is produced with lesser input.
 More output is produced with more input.
 The proportional increase in output being more than the proportional increase in input.
1.4 Productivity Measurement:
Productivity may be measured either on aggregate basis or on individual basis, which are called
total and partial measure.
Total productivity Index/measure = Total output/ Total input
= Total production of goods and services
Labour+material+capital+Energy+management
Partial productivity indices, depending upon factors used, it measures the efficiency of individual
factor of production.

3
Labour productivity Index/Measure = Output in unit
Man hours worked
Management productivity Index/Measure = Output
Total cost of management
Machine productivity Index/Measure = Total output
Machine hours worked
Land productivity Index/Measure = Total output
Area of Land used
Partial Measure = Output or Output or Output or Output
Labour Capital Materials Energy
PROBLEMS:
Example-1
The input and output data for an industry given in the table. Find out various productivity
measures like total, multifactor and partial measure.
Output and Input production data in dollar ($)
Output
1. Finished units 10,000
2. Work in progress 2,500
3. Dividends 1,000
4. Bonds -------
5. Other income --------
Input
1. Human 3,000
2. Material 153
3. Capital 10,000
4. Energy 540
5. Other Expenses 1,500
Solution:
Total measure = Total Output = 13,500 = 0.89
Total Input 15,193
Multi factor measure = Total Output = 13,500 = 4.28
Human+Material 3,153
Multi factor measure = Finished units = 10,000 = 3.17
Human+Material 3,153
Partial Measure1 = Total Output = 13,500 = 25
Energy 540
Partial Measure2= Finished units = 10,000 = 18.52
Energy 540

4
Note: For multifactor and partial measures it is not necessary to use total output as numerator.
Often, it is describe to create measures that represent productivity as it relates to some particular
output of interest.
Other fields for the measurement of partial measures of productivity are:
Business Productivity Measure
Restaurant Customers (Meals) per labour hour
Retail Store Sales per square foot
Utility plant Kilowatts per ton of coal
Paper mill Tons of paper per cord of wood
Example-2
A furniture manufacturing company has provided the following data. Compare the labour,
raw materials and supplies and total productivity of 1996 and 1997.
Output: Sales value of production in dollar ($)
22,000 (in 1996) and 35,000 (in 1997)
1996 1997
Inputs: Labour 10,000 15,000
Raw materials and Supplies 8,000 12,500
Capital equipment depreciation 700 1,200
Other 2,200 4,800
Solution:
1996 1997
a. Partial productivities
Labour 2.20 2.33
Raw materials and Supplies 2.75 2.80
b. Total Productivity 1.05 1.04
1.5 Productivity measurement approaches at the enterprises level:
As stated above total productivity is expressed as the ratio of aggregate output to the aggregate
input. That the total overall performance is captured in this ratio, becomes apparent, if we
examine the relationship between this ratio and the age-old performance measure of profit.
If the outputs and input for the period for which productivity is measured, are expressed in
rupees, then under such restrictive assumptions one can write:
Aggregate output =Gross Sales=G (Say)
Aggregate input=Cost =C (Say)

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Total Productivity=P(Say)=
C
G
………………..(1)
From the definition of profit, we have;
Profit= π = G-C ………………….(2)
By dividing eqn
(2) by C, 1
C
G
C

So from (1), 
C

=P-1
For Zero profit ( =0), 1P
For a Loss, (  0), 1P
For a profit, 1,0  P
Zero profit will give a productivity value of 1, while a loss will give productivity value less than
1.The profit to cost ratio will determine the increase in productivity.
The above relationship that demonstrates that increased profit to cost ratio will lead to increased
overall productivity, is constituent with our expectation on how an overall performance measure
should behave. However it suffers from a number of drawbacks. Some of which are listed here,
a) Given that our objective in productivity measurement is to capture the efficiency of
utilization of resources, the effect of price variations over time need to be corrected. Thus
aggregate output should be equal to gross sales suitably inflated or deflated with respect
to a base year.
b) Equating output to sales implies, whatever is produced in the particular period is sold.
Possibility of inventory, material manufactured for own use, etc. are n’t taken in to
consideration.
c) Equating aggregate input to cost raises a host of problems and involves several restrictive
assumptions. How to account for the fixed investment and working capital, whether to
take the fringe benefits in to account etc. are some of the problems.
The different approaches to measurement have arisen mainly in the context of correcting the
above drawbacks.
1.6 Techniques for Productivity Improvement:
Higher productivity in organization leads to national prosperity and better standard of living
for the whole community. The methods contribute to the improvement of productivity are
method study and work measurement by reducing work content and Ineffective time.

6
Work content means the amount of work “contained in” a given product or process measured
in man-hour or machine-hour. Except in some cases like in processing industries, actual
operation times are far in excess of the theoretical minimum.
Ineffective time is the time for which the worker or machine or both are idle due to the
shortcomings of the management or the worker.

7
CHAPTER-II
PRODUCTION SYSTEM
2.1 Introduction
A “Production System” is a system whose function is to transform an input into a desired output
by means of a process (the production process) and of resources. The definition of a production
system is thus based on four main elements: the input, the resources, the production process and
the output.
Most of the organizations (including non-profit organization) can be described as production
systems.These organizations transform (or convert) a set of inputs (such as materials, labour,
equipment, energy etc.) in to one or useful outputs. The outputs of a production system are
normally called products. These products may be:
(a)Tangible goods (b)Intangible services (c)combination of (a) and (b)
(Steels,chemicals etc.) (Teaching,health care etc.) (fast food,tailoring etc.)
Fig 2.1 A simple block diagram of a production system
Production system refers to manufacturing subsystem that includes all functions required to
design, produce, distribute and service a manufactured product. So this system produces goods
and/or services on a continuous and/or batch basis with or without profit as a primary objective.
INPUT
• Material
• Machines
• Labor
• Management
• Capital
TRANSFORMATION
PROCESS
OUTPUT
• Goods
• Services
Feedback & Requirements
Resources
Input-Production Process-Output

8
Production is the basic activity of all organizations and all other activities revolve around
production activity. The output of production is the creation of goods and services which satisfy
the needs of the customers. In some organization the product is physical (tangible) good. For
example, refrigerators, motor cars, television, toothpaste etc., while in others it is a service
(insurance, healthcare etc.).The production system has the following characteristics:
 Production is an organized activity, so every production system has an objective.
 The system transforms the various inputs (men, material, machines,information,energy)
to useful outputs (goods and/or services).
 Production system doesn’t oppose in isolation from the other organization system such as
marketing, finance etc.
 There exists a feedback about the activities which is essential to control and improve
system performance.
The transformation process involves many activities and operation necessary to change
inputs to output. These operations and activities can be mechanical, chemical, inspection
and control, material handling operation etc.
2.2 Models of Production system:
A model is a representation of reality that captures the essential features of an
object/system/process. Three types of models are there such as physical, schematic and
mathematical.
I. Physical model: Replica of a physical object with a change of scale.
a. For big/huge structure of physical object: small scale (Ex. solar system)
b. For microscopic objects: magnified scale(Ex. Atomic model)
II. Schematic model: These are 2-D models which represents
• Price fluctuations with year.
• Symbolic chart of activities in sequence for a job.
• Maps of routings
• Networks of timed events.
The pictorial aspects are useful for good demonstration purposes.
III. Mathematical model:
Formulas and equations have long being the servants of physical sciences. One can
represent the important aspect of a system/problem in mathematical form using variables,
parameters and functions. This is called mathematical model .by analyzing and
manipulating the mathematical model, we can learn how the real system will behave
under various conditions.

9
2.3 Product vs. services
Product
1-tangible, durable products.
2- Output can be inventoried.
3-consumption/use takes more time.
4-low costumer’s involvement.
5-long response time.
6-available at regional, national and
international market.
7-Reqire large facilities.
8-Capital intensive.
9-Quality easily measured.
10-Demand variable on weekly, monthly,
seasonally.
Services
1- Intangible, perishable products.
2- Output can’t be inventoried.
3-Immidiate consumption.
4- High costumer’s involvement.
5- Short response time.
6-local market.
7- Require small facilities.
8-Labour intensive.
9- Quality not easily measured.
10- Demand variable on hourly, daily, weekly
basis.
Explanations
Manufacturing organization generally transfer tangible inputs or raw materials into some
tangible output (ex: steel, refrigerator, toothpaste, soap etc.) Other inputs such as labour skills,
management skills, capitals are used as well. Manufacturing organizations perform some
chemical /physical processes (such as blending refining, welding, grinding.etc) to transfer their
raw material into tangible products. Service providing organization though transform a set of
input into set of output, they don’t produce a tangible output.(ex: mail service, library service,
restaurant etc.).or provide service(ex: health care, hair care, watch and automobile repair etc.).
The service of service providing organization is intangible.
A 2nd
distinction is based on inventories .durable goods can be kept for longer time these goods
can be stored for longer time and can be transported in anticipation in future demand .Thus with
durable goods ,operation manager can co up with the peaks and valleys in demand by creating
inventories and smoothing out output levels. Whereas service can’t be pre produced. For
example: getting fast food from a fast food center, getting treatment from hospital etc.
A 3rd
distinction is based on consumption/use of output. The products (goods) generally take
longer period for its use, for ex refrigerator, T.V. automobile etc. can be used at least for 10
years. On the other hand, the output produced from a service operation (i.e. service) is consumed
within a small time. Ex. consumption of fastfood,taking hair care, enjoying journey by a
bus/train/aero plane enjoying entertainment program.
A 4th
distinction is based on customer contact. Most of the consumers/customers have little or no
contact with production system/organization. Whereas, in many service providing organization

10
consumers/customers are directly involved. For example: students in an educational institution,
patients in hospital.
The 5th
distinction is based on lead time/response time to customers demand. Manufacturers take
generally some lead time (i.e. time period from placing the order to get the product) in terms of
days/week. Whereas the services are offered within few minutes of customers arrival. For ex:
ATM Service, getting postal stamps, getting grocery from a retail shop and getting examined by
a doctor etc.
The 6th
distinction is on availability. Products can be available from regional, national or
international markets due to availability of transportations and distribution facilities whereas,
service can’t shipped to distant locations. Thus service organization requiring direct customer
contact must locate very near to the customers.
The 7th
distinction is based on liabilities/facilities. Manufacturing unit/organization producing
products generally require larger facilities, more automation and greater capital investment than
service providing organization.
The 8th
distinction is based on capital/labour priority. Generally manufacturing firm producing
goods/products require more capital than a service provider. Ex. An automobile firm requires
more capital than a post office/Nursing home. The 9th
and 10th
distinction is based on quality and
demand variation.
2.4 Various types of Layout:
Plant layout means the disposition of the various facilities (equipment, material, manpower etc.)
and services of the plant within the area of site located.
Objectives
 Material handling and transportation is minimized and effectively controlled.
 Bottlenecks and points of congestions are eliminated (by line balancing) so that the raw-
material and semi-finished goods move fast from one workstation to other.
 Workstations are designed suitable and properly.
 Suitable spaces are allocated to production centers and service centers.
 The movements made by the workers minimized.
Layout can be classified into the following four categories:
a. process layout
b. product layout
c. Group layout(combination layout)
d. Fixed position layout

11
a. process layout:
• It is also known as functional layout.
• Here similar machines and services located together Ex. All the lathe machines
will be at one place and all milling machines at another place and so on.
• This type of layout generally employed for industries engaged in job-shop
production and non-repetitive kind of production.
• When there variety of products manufactured at low volume we prefer this type of
layout.
• Ex. furniture manufacturer company, restaurant etc.
Fig 2.2 process layout
b. Product layout
• It is also known as line (type) layout.
• The flow of product will smooth and logical.
• When the machines and auxiliary services are located according to the processing
sequence we prefer this layout.
• It implies that various operations raw material are performed in a sequence and
the machines are placed along the product flow line.
• The product layout is selected when the volume of production of a product is high
such that separate production line to manufacture it can be justified.
• Assembly line production or mass production prefer this type layout. Ex.
Assembly of television sets assembly of computer key-board etc.
Fig 2.3 product layout

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c. Group layout:
• It is the combination of both process and product layout.
• In this type of layout a set of machinery or equipment is grouped together in a
section so that each group of machines or equipment is used to perform similar
operations to produce a family of components. These machines grouped in to
cells.
• It minimizes the sum of cost of transport and the cost of equipment.
Milling shaping
Drilling Welding
Grinding Slotting
Boring Fitting
Turning Welding
Fig 2.4 Group layout
d. Fixed position layout
 It is also called static product layoutin which the physical characterstics of the
product dictate as to which type of machine and men are brought to the product.
 This type layout is inherent in ship building,aircraft manufacture and big pressure
vessels fabrication.
 In other type layout the product moves past stationary production equipment
where as in this case men and equipment are moved to the material at one place
and the product is completed at the place where the material lies.
Fig 2.5 Fixed position layout

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2.5 Process-focused and product-focused system:
In process-focused system the arrangement of facilities is made according to the process layout
and in product-focused system the arrangement of facilities is made according to the product
layout.
Comparison of process oriented layout and product oriented layout
Sl No. Different
Aspects
Process oriented Product oriented
1 Product Diversified products using
operations, varying rate of
output or small batches of many
different products
Standardized product,
large volume,stable rate
of output
2 Workflow Variable flow depending on
nature of job
Identical flow and same
sequence of operations
for each unit.
3 Human skills Semiskilled craftsman and able
to do various/different
categories of work
Highly specialized and
able to perform repetitive
tasks at fixed place
4 Supporting
staffs
Less;scheduling,material
handeling,production and
inventory control
Large; schedule materials
and people, monitor and
maintain works
5 Material
handling
Material handling cost
high,handeling sometimes
duplicated
Less dectble , flow
systematized and often
automated.
6 Inventory In process inventory less In process inventory high
7 Space
utilization
Space and capital are tied up by
work in process
Less space is occupied by
work in transit and for
temporary storage.
8 Capital
requirement
Comparatively low investment
in machines required
Large investment in
specialized equipment
and processes
9 Production cost Relatively low fixed cost, high
variable cost(for direct
labour,material and material
handling)
Relatively high fixed
cost, low variable cost
(for labour and materials)
10 Production time Through time is larger. Throughput time is
lesser.
11 Flexibility of
design change
high low
12 Effect of
breakdown
Break down of any machine
doesn’t effect much on the final
output
Seriously affected; as all
are interrelated system.

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2.6 Product life cycle
A product life cycle consist of 5 stages through which a product passes that is *introduction
*growth*maturity*decline. the figure shown previously represent sales and profit associated with
each stage and some practical example of products are also shown on it.
1. Introduction
At this stage, sales begin and profit goes from –ve to +ve. In this stage ,the demand is low
.because the costumer don’t know much about the product. The organization has to invest
heavily in advertisement to make the product familiar to the costumers. the volume sales are
low,and if proper care is not taken, there is chances to product failure.
2.Growth
The product next enters a stage at rapid growth. Early in this stage (due to acceptability of the
product by the costumer) there is drastic jump in sales and profit rise. It is because of limited or
no competition. During this stage the mandate for operation is somehow to keep up with
demand; efficiency is less of concern.
3.Maturity
During this stage, sales level off and profit begins to decline. New competition create to cut costs
and ultimately on unit profit margin. Now operation must stress on efficiency, although
marketing can ease the pressure by intensifying to differentiate the product.
4.Decline
At last the existing product enters to a declining stage and becomes obsolete. Either demand
despisers or a better less expensive product.
Life cycle suggest when to eliminate the existing product and introduce a new one. This life
cycle varies greatly from product to product. For example it took 15 years for “Xerox” to
introduce electrostatic copy m/c .in contrast and computer and microchip industry, products
become obsolete in months.

15
Fig 2.6. product life cycle
2.7 Production function
(a) Functions of industrial enterprise
(b) Functions of process
(a)Functions of industrial enterprise
The major functions of a relatively large industrial firm is represented by the following figure
Fig 2.6 of production function a enterprise
POLICY
MANUFACTURING
PERSONNEL
PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT
MATERIALS
FINANCE
AND ACCOUNTING
PURCHASING

16
The core area of the diagram represents the organization’s policy making group. In a hierarchic
triangle, this group would occupy the apex. The overlapping portions of the circle denote the co-
operation needed from the two groups in order to establish overall policy. The slope of each
function and its relationship to the production process are briefly discussed in the following.
(i)Manufacturing
A fundamental function of much production system is to produce a physical output.
Manufacturing includes the operations and direct support services for making the product
operation management is concerned with production scheduling, performance standards, method
improvement, quality control, plant layout and material handling. A plant service section handles
shipping receiving, storing and transporting raw material parts and tools. The plant engineering
group is usually responsible for in-plant construction, maintenance, design of tools and
equipment and other problems of mechanical, hydraulic or electrical nature.
(ii) personnel
The recruitment and training of the personnel needed to operate the production system are
the traditional responsibilities of the personnel function. Along with it, this department takes care
health, safety, wage administration of the employees. Labour relation and employee services and
benefits are increasingly important.
(iii) Product development
Many organizations give major emphasis on product development because the ultimate
profit of any organization depends primarily on the nature/quality of product. The product must
be customized. A separate section is responsible for this task.
(iv)Marketing
Many ideas of product development comes through the marketing function. Selling is the
primary interest of marketing. Sales forecasts and estimate of the nature of future demands is
also performed by this department. Contact with customers provide feedback about the quality
expected from the firm and opinion on how well the products meet quality standard.
(v) Finance and accounting
Internal financing includes reviewing the budgets for operating sections, evaluating of
proposed investments for production facilities and preparing balance sheet. Besides these the
other responsibilities is to see how well the firm is scoring in the business competition game.
In this business game analogy the accounting functions are collection of cost data for
materials direct labour and overhead. Special reports are prepared regarding scarp, parts and
finished goods inventories, pattern of labour hours and similar data applicable to production
activities.

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(vi) Purchasing
In a narrow sense, purchasing is limited to accounting materials from outside sources. But
while carrying out this activity, it requires to investigate the reliability of vendors, type of
materials needed, co-ordinating material purchase volume with the requirement as per schedule,
discovering new material and process. The purchasing function serves the other functional areas,
overlap sometimes with inventory control, material inspection, shipping and receiving, sub-
contracting and internal transportation.
(b)Functions of production process
Another was to group functions is according to their relative position in a production process.
the sequential arrangement is shown in the following
Fig 2.7 functions of production process
Customer
Sales
Finance
Engineering
Production
Planning Control
Inventory Cntrol
Procurement
Manufacturing
Quality Control
Distribution

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2.8 Types of production system:
The production system of a company mainly uses facilities, equipments and operating
methods(called the production system) to produce goods that satisfy customers’ demand.The
above requirements of a production system depend on the type of product that the company
offers and the strategy that it employs to serve its customers. The classification of production
system is explained in the table.
Fig 2.6 Classification of production systems
Job shop production
 Job shop is appropriate for manufactures of small batches of many different products,
each of which is custom designed and requires its own unique set of processing steps or
routing through production process.
 The production system in which different types of product follow different sequences
through different shops. Ex. Furniture manufacturing company, restaurant, prototype
industry.
 Much time is spent waiting for access to equipment. Some equipment overloaded.
 A process technology suitable for a variety of custom designed products in some volume.
 This production system adopts process layout as by this production system we
manufacture more variety of products at low product volume.
Batch production
 A process technology suitable for variety of products in varying volumes.
 Here limited product variety which is fixed for one batch of product. Ex. Bakery shop,
medicine shop.

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 Within the wide range of products in the facility, several are demanded repeatedly and in
large volume.
 This type of production system should be preferred when there is wide variety of
products in wide variety of volumes.
Assembly line (mass) Production
 A process technology suitable for a narrow range of standardized products in high
volumes.
 The successive units of output undergo the same sequence of operation using
specialized equipment usually positioned along a production line.
 The product variety is fixed here. Ex. Assembly of television sets, assembly of auto,
assembly of computer keyboard, cold drinks factory etc.
Continuous production
 A process technology suitable for producing a continuous flow of products.
 The product is highly standardized.
 Material and products are produced in continuous, endless flows, rather than in batches
or discrete units.
 Continuous flow technology affords high volume, around-the clock operation with
capital intensive, specialized automation.
2.9 Dimensions of Product Strategies:
• Product-Positioning.
• Product-Repositioning.
• Product-Overlap.
• Product Scope.
• Product-Design.
• Product Elimination.
• New Product.
• Diversification.
• Value-Marketing.
Product Positioning: The Procedure
1. Analyze product attributes that are salient to Customers.
2. Examine the distribution of these attributes among different segments.

20
3. Determine the optimal position for the product in regard to each attribute, taking into
consideration the position occupied by existing brands.
4. Choose an overall position for the product (based on overall match between product
attributes and their distribution in the population and the position of existing brands)
Product Positioning Strategy
• Definition: Placing a brand in that part of the market where it will have a favorable
reception compared with competing brands.
• For Ex The marketers of “Liril” soap wants the people to think “Liril” when they think
soap. The marketers of “Colgate” want the consumers to think “Colgate” when they think
toothpaste etc.
• Objective
– To position the product in the market so that it stands apart from competing
brands. (b) To position the product so that it tells customers what you stand for,
what you are, and how you would like customers to evaluate you. In the case of
positioning multiple brands:
• (a) To seek growth by offering varied products in differing segments of
the market.
• (b) To avoid competitive threats to a single brand
• Requirements: Use of marketing mix variables, especially design and communication
efforts.
– Successful management of a single brand requires positioning the brand in the
market so that it can stand competition from the toughest rival and maintaining its
unique position by creating the aura of a distinctive product.
– Successful management of multiple brands requires careful positioning in the
market so that multiple brands do not compete with nor cannibalize each other.
Thus it is important to be careful in segmenting the market and to position an
individual product as uniquely suited to a particular segment through design and
promotion.
– Expected Results:
– Short term success
– Meet as much as possible the needs of specific segments of the market

21
– Limit sudden changes in sales.
– Make customers faithful to the brands.
Product Re-positioning Strategy
• Definition: Reviewing the current positioning of the product and its marketing mix and
seeking a new position for it that seems more appropriate.
• Objectives: (a) To increase the life of the product. (b) To correct an original positioning
mistake.
• Requirements:
– If this strategy is directed toward existing customers, repositioning is sought
through promotion of more varied uses of the product.
– If the business unit wants to reach new users, this strategy requires that the
product be presented with a different twist to the people who have not been
favorably inclined toward it. In doing so, care should be taken to see that, in the
process of enticing new customers, current ones are not alienated.
– If this strategy aims at presenting new uses of the product, it requires searching
for latent uses of the product, if any. Although all products may not have latent
uses, there are products that may be used for purposes not originally intended.
• Expected Results:
– Among existing customers: increase in sales growth and profitability.
– Among new users: enlargement of the overall market, thus putting the product on
a growth route, and increased profitability.
– New product uses: increased sales, market share, and profitability.
Product Overlap Strategy
• Definition: Competing against one’s own brand through introduction of competing
products, use of private labeling, and selling to original-equipment manufacturers.
• Objectives: Product overlap strategies can include selling similar goods in different
markets, regions or international countries. For example, a company may sell widgets and
cogs; both offer extremely similar consumer benefits. However, the company may sell
widgets in the United States and cogs in Canada.
•

22
– (a) To attract more customers to the product and thereby increase the overall
market.
– (b) To work at full capacity and spread overhead.
– (c) To sell to competitors; to realize economies of scale and cost reduction.
• Requirements:
– (a) Each competing product must have its own marketing organization to compete
in the market.
– (b) Private brands should not become profit drains.
– (c) Each brand should find its special niche in the market. If that doesn’t happen,
it will create confusion among customers and sales will be hurt.
– (d) In the long run, one of the brands may be withdrawn, yielding its position to
the other brand
– Increased market share.
– Increased growth.
Product Scope Strategy
• Definition: The product-scope strategy deals with the perspectives of the product mix of
a company. The product-scope strategy is determined by taking into account the overall
mission of the business unit. The company may adopt a single-product strategy, a
multiple-product strategy, or a system-of-products strategy.
• Objectives:
– Single product: to increase economies of scale by developing specialization.
– Multiple products: to cover the risk of potential obsolescence of the single product
by adding additional products.
– System of products: to increase the dependence of the customer on the company’s
products as well as to prevent competitors from moving into the market.
• Requirements:
– (a) Single product: company must stay up-to-date on the product and even
become the technology leader to avoid obsolescence.
– (b) Multiple products: products must complement one another in a portfolio of
products.

23
– (c) System of products: company must have a close understanding of customer
needs and uses of the products.
• Expected Results: Increased growth, market share, and profits with all three strategies.
With system-of-products strategy, the company achieves monopolistic control over the
market, which may lead to some problems with the Justice Department, and enlarges the
concept of its product/market opportunities.
Product Design Strategy
• Definition: The product-design strategy deals with the degree of standardization of a
product. The company has a choice among the following strategic options: standard
product, customized product, and standard product with modifications.
• Objectives:
– Standard product: to increase economies of scale of the company.
– Customized product: to compete against mass producers of standardized products
through product-design flexibility.
– Standard product with modifications: to combine the benefits of the two previous
strategies.
– Requirements:
– Close analysis of product/market perspectives and environmental
– Changes, especially technological changes.
– Increase in growth, market share, and profits. In addition, the
– third strategy allows the company to keep close contacts with the market and
– Gain experience in developing new standard products.
Product Elimination Strategy
• Definition: Cuts in the composition of a company’s business unit product portfolio by
pruning the number of products within a line or by totally divesting a division or
business.
• Objectives:
– To eliminate undesirable products because their contribution to fixed cost and
profit is too low,

24
– Eliminate Products that its future performance looks grim, or because they do not
fit in the business’s overall strategy.
– The product elimination strategy aims at shaping the best possible mix of products
and balancing the total business.
– Requirements:
– No special resources are required to eliminate a product or a division.
– However, because it is impossible to reverse the decision once the elimination
• Requirements:
– No special resources are required to eliminate a product or a division.
– An in-depth analysis must be done to determine
• (a) the causes of current problems;
• (b) The possible alternatives, other than elimination, that may solve
problems (e.g., Are any improvements in the marketing mix possible?);
• (c) The repercussions that elimination may have on remaining products or
units.
– In the short run, cost savings from production runs, reduced
– inventories, and in some cases an improved return on investment can be
– Expected. In the long run, the sales of the remaining products may increase
because more efforts are now concentrated on them.
New Product Strategy
• Definition: A set of operations that introduces (a) within the business, a product new to
its previous line of products; (b) on the market, a product that provides a new type of
satisfaction. Three alternatives emerge from the above: product
improvement/modification, product imitation, and product innovation.
• Objectives: To meet new needs and to sustain competitive pressures on existing
products. In the first case, the new-product strategy is an offensive one; in the second
case, it is a defensive one.
• Requirements: A new-product strategy is difficult to implement if a “new product
development system” does not exist within a company. Five components of this system
should be assessed:

25
– Corporate aspirations toward new products,
– Organizational openness to creativity.
• Requirements: A new-product strategy is difficult to implement if a “new product
development system” does not exist within a company. Five components of this system
should be assessed:
– Environmental favor toward creativity
– Screening method for new ideas, and Evaluation process
• Expected Results: Increased market share and profitability.
– are now concentrated on them.
Diversification Strategy
• Definition: Developing unfamiliar products and markets through:
– Concentric diversification (products introduced are related to existing ones in
terms of marketing or technology),
– Horizontal diversification (new products are unrelated to existing ones but are
sold to the same customers)
– Conglomerate diversification (products are entirely new).
• Objectives: Diversification strategies respond to the desire for:
– Growth when current products/markets have reached maturity,
– Stability by spreading the risks of fluctuations in earnings,
– Security when the company may fear backward integration from one of its major
customers,
– Credibility to have more weight in capital markets.
• Requirements: In order to reduce the risks inherent in a diversification strategy, a
business unit should:
– Diversify its activities only if current product/market opportunities are limited.
– Have good knowledge of the area in which it diversifies.
– Provide the products introduced with adequate support.
– Forecast the effects of diversification on existing lines of products.
– Expected Results:
– Increase in sales.
– Greater profitability and flexibility

26
Value Marketing Strategy
• Definition: The value-marketing strategy concerns delivering on promises made for the
product or service. These promises involve product quality, customer service, and
meeting time commitments.
• Objectives: Value-marketing strategies are directed toward seeking total customer
satisfaction. It means striving for excellence to meet customer expectations.
• Requirements:
– (a) Examine customer value perspectives.
– (b) Design programs to meet customer quality, service, and time requirements.
– (c) Train employees and distributors to deliver on promises.
– Expected Results: This strategy enhances customer satisfaction, which leads to
customer loyalty, and, hence, to higher market share. This strategy makes the firm
less vulnerable to price wars, permitting the firm to charge higher prices and, thus,
earn higher profits.

27
CHAPTER-III
FORECASTING
Casting data forward is called forecasting. It is a projection based upon past data or it is an
estimate of an event which will happen in future.
Need of forecasting:
 When there is a time lag between awareness of an impending event or need and
occurrence of that event. This lead time is the main reason of planning and forecasting.
 Planning is the fundamental activity of management. Forecasting forms the basis of
planning.
 It is essential for the organization to know for what level of activities one is planning
before investments in input.
Types of Forecasting:
Short Term Forecasting
Long Term Forecasting
Short Term forecasting is the forecasting that made for short term objectives covering less than
one year. Ex. Material Requirement Planning (MRP), scheduling, sequencing, budgeting etc.
Long Term Forecasting is the forecasting that made for that made for long term objectives
covering more than five years. Ex. Product diversification, sales and advertisement.
Elements of Forecasting:
Forecasting consists basically of analysis of the following elements.
a) Internal factors
b) External factors
i. Controllable
ii. Non-Controllable (Organizing with national economy,governments,customers and
Competitors)
Basic categories of forecasting methods:
Forecasting methods can be divided in to three main categories.
A. Extrapolative or Time-series Methods
B. Casual or explanatory methods
C. Qualitative or judgmental methods
Time-series Methods and explanatory methods are quantitative methods and judgmental
methods are qualitative methods. Quantitative methods will be adopted when sufficient
quantitative information available and when little or no qualitative information available
but sufficient qualitative knowledge available qualitative methods will be preferable.

28
A. Extrapolative or Time-series Methods
• Time series forecasting models try to predict the future based on past data.
• Relate the forecast to only one factor – time.
• Include
 Moving average
 Exponential smoothing
Moving Average
• Naive forecast: demand in current period is used as next period’s forecast
• Simple moving average
 Uses average demand for a fixed sequence of periods.
 Stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.
• Weighted moving average
 Weights are assigned to most recent data.
Moving Average: Naïve Approach
Example: Forecast the order for the month of November by Naïve approach.
MONTH ORDERS PER
MONTH
FORECAST
Jan 120 -
Feb 90 120
Mar 100 90
Apr 75 100
May 110 75
June 50 110
July 75 50
Aug 130 75
Sept 110 130
Oct 90 110
Nov - 90
Solution: Forecast order for the month of November,
(F)Nov = 90 units
Simple Moving Average
n = number of periods taken to evaluate the moving average
Dt or Di = Actual demand in that period

29
SMA
t = simple moving average at the end of the period t or estimated demand at the end of
that period.
n
D+D...+D+D
=S
t1-t2)-(n-t1)-(n-t
t

MA
3-month Simple Moving Average
MONTH ORDERS
MONTH PER
MONTH
MOVING
AVERAGE
MA3 =
Novfororders
110
3
13011090
3
3
1



i
iD
Jan 120 –
Feb 90 –
Mar 100 –
Apr 75 103.3
May 110 88.3
June 50 95.0
July 75 78.3
Aug 130 78.3
Sept 110 85.0
Oct 90 105.0
Nov - 110.0
5-month Simple Moving Average
MONTH ORDERS
MONTH PER
MONTH
MOVING
AVERAGE
MA5 =
Novfororders
91
5
507513011090
3
5
1



i
iD
Jan 120 –
Feb 90 –
Mar 100 –
Apr 75 –
May 110 –
June 50 99.0
July 75 85.0
Aug 130 82.0
Sept 110 88.0
Oct 90 95.0
Nov - 91.0

30
Smoothing effects
Fig 3.1 Classification of production systems
Note:  It gives equal weight to the demand in each of the most n periods.
 Small value of n can capture data pattern more closely compared to high value of n
Because high value of n averages out more to the data or a greater smoothing effect on
random fluctuations.
Weighted Moving Average
While the moving average formula implies an equal weight being placed on each value that is
being averaged, the weighted moving average permits an unequal weighting on prior time
periods
i
n
i
i DW1
1=w
n
1=i
i
w
t
= weight given to time period “t” occurrence (weights must add to one)
Question: Given the weekly demand and weights, what is the forecast for the 4
th
period or Week
4?
Note that the weights place more emphasis on the most recent data, that is time period “t-1”
Weights:
t-1
t-2
t-3
WMA
t
=
Week Demand
1 650
2 678
3 720
4

31
Exponential Smoothing
F
t +1
= α D
t
+ (1 - α) F
t
where:
F
t +1
=forecast for next period
D
t
=actual demand for present period
F
t
= previously determined forecast for present period
α =weighting factor, smoothing constant
Effect of Smoothing Constant
0.0  a  1.0
If a = 0.20, then Ft +1 = 0.20 Dt + 0.80 Ft
If a = 0, then Ft +1 = 0 Dt + 1 Ft = Ft
Forecast does not reflect recent data
If a = 1, then Ft +1 = 1 Dt + 0 Ft = Dt
Forecast based only on most recent data
Question: Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecasts for
periods 10th
using a=0.10 and a=0.60?
Assume F
1
=D
1
Week Demand Forecast
1 650
2 678
3 720
4 693.4
INPUT
• Material
• Machines
• Labor
• Management

32
Solution: The respective alphas columns denote the forecast values. Note that you can only
forecast one time period into the future.
Note how that the smaller alpha results in a smoother line in this example
Fig 3.2 Effect of Smoothing Constant
Week Demand
1 820
2 775
3 680
4 655
5 750
6 802
7 798
8 689
9 775
10
Week Demand 0.1 0.6
1 820 820.00 820.00
2 775 820.00 820.00
3 680 815.50 793.00
4 655 801.95 725.20
5 750 787.26 683.08
6 802 783.53 723.23
7 798 785.38 770.49
8 689 786.64 787.00
9 775 776.88 728.20
10 776.69 756.28
500
600
700
800
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Week
Demand
Demand
0.1
0.6

33
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
AF
t +1
= F
t +1
+ T
t +1
where
T = an exponentially smoothed trend factor
T
t +1
= β(F
t +1
- F
t
) + (1 - β) T
t
where
T
t
= the last period trend factor
β = a smoothing constant for trend
0 ≤ β ≤ 1
Ft+1 =At + Tt
Where,
At = αDt + (1 − α)(At−1 + Tt−1) and
Tt = β(At − At−1) + (1 − β)Tt−1
T
t -1
= the last period trend factor
β = a smoothing constant for trend
0 ≤ β ≤ 1
Question
PM Computer Services assembles customized personal computers from generic parts. they need
a good forecast of demand for their computers so that they will know how many parts to
purchase and stock. They have compiled demand data for the last 12months. There is an upward
trend in the demand. Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter α= 0.5
and trend parameter β= 0.3 to compute the demand forecast for January (Period 13).
Period Month Demand Period Month Demand
1 January 37 7 July 43
2 February 40 8 August 47
3 March 41 9 September 56
4 April 37 10 October 52
5 May 45 11 November 55
6 June 50 12 December 54
Solution:
For Period 2,
we have F2 = A1 + T1, so to get the process started, let A0 = 37 and T0 = 0.
A1 = αD1 + (1 − α)(A0 + T0) = 0.5(37) + (1 − 0.5)(37 + 0) = 37,
and T1 = β(A1 − A0) + (1 − β)T0 = 0.3(37 − 37) + (1 − 0.3)(0) = 0
F2 = A1 + T1 = 37 + 0 = 37

34
For Period 3,
A2 = αD2 +(1−α)(A1+T1) = 0.5(40)+(1−0.5)(37+0) = 38.5, and
T2 = β(A2 −A1)+(1−β)T1 =0.3(38.5− 37)+ (1 − 0.3)(0) = 0.45.
F3 = A2 + T2 = 38.5+ 0.45 = 38.95.
Expon. Trend-Adjusted Expon.
Smooth.. Smooth. (α= 0.5, β = 0.3)
Period Month Demand α = 0.5 At Tt Ft
1 Jan 37 37.00 37.00 0.00 37.00
2 Feb 40 37.00 38.50 0.45 37.00
3 Mar 41 38.50 39.98 0.76 38.95
4 Apr. 37 39.75 38.87 0.20 40.73
5 May 45 38.38 42.03 1.09 39.06
6 Jun. 50 41.69 46.56 2.12 43.12
7 Jul. 43 45.84 45.84 1.27 48.68
8 Aug. 47 44.42 47.05 1.25 47.11
9 Sep. 56 45.71 52.15 2.41 48.31
10 Oct. 52 50.86 53.28 2.02 54.56
11 Nov. 55 51.43 55.15 1.98 55.30
12 Dec. 54 53.21 55.56 1.51 57.13
13 Jan ? 53.61 57.07
B. Casual or explanatory methods
Simple Linear Regression Model
y = a + bx
where
a = intercept
b = slope of the line
x = time period
y = forecast for demand for period x
Nov
4
= WMA
3
0.5(720)+0.3(678)+0.2(650)=693.4

35


22
)xn(-x
)x)(yn(-xy
=b
xb-y=a
Question: Given the data below, what is the simple linear regression model that can be used to
predict sales in future weeks?
Solution: First, using the linear regression formulas, we can compute “a” and “b”.
143.5
6.3
=(6.3)(3)-162.4=xb-y=a
=
10
63
)9(555
)5(162.4)(3-2499
=
)xn(-x
)x)(yn(-xy
=b 22



The resulting regression model is:
Yt = 143.5 + 6.3x
Correlation Coefficient, r
 The quantity r, called the linear correlation coefficient, measures the strength and the
direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The linear correlation coefficient
is sometimes referred to as the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient in honor
of its developer Karl Pearson.
 The value of r is such that -1 < r < +1. The + and – signs are used for positive
linear correlations and negative linear correlations, respectively.
 Positive correlation: If x and y have a strong positive linear correlation, r is close
Week Sales
1 150
2 157
3 162
4 166
5 177
Week Week*Week Sales Week*Sales
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885
3 55 162.4 2499
Average Sum Average Sum

36
to +1. An r value of exactly +1 indicates a perfect positive fit. Positive values
indicate a relationship between x and y variables such that as values for x increases,
values for y also increase.
 Negative correlation: If x and y have a strong negative linear correlation, r is close
to -1. An r value of exactly -1 indicates a perfect negative fit. Negative values
indicate a relationship between x and y such that as values for x increase, values for y
decrease.
 No correlation: If there is no linear correlation or a weak linear correlation, r is
Close to 0. A value near zero means that there is a random, nonlinear relationship
between the two variables
 Note that r is a dimensionless quantity; that is, it does not depend on the units
employed.
 A perfect correlation of ± 1 occurs only when the data points all lie exactly on a
straight line. If r = +1, the slope of this line is positive. If r = -1, the slope of this
line is negative.
Positive Correlation
Notice that in this example as the heights increase, the diameters of the trunks also tend to
increase. If this were a perfect positive correlation all of the points would fall on a straight line.
The more linear the data points, the closer the relationship between the two variables.
Negative Correlation

37
Notice that in this example as the number of parasites increases, the harvest of unblemished
apples decreases. If this were a perfect negative correlation all of the points would fall on a line
with a negative slope. The more linear the data points, the more negatively correlated are the
two variables.
No Correlation
Notice that in this example there seems to be no relationship between the two variables.
Perhaps pillbugs and clover do not interact with one another.
The mathematical formula for computing r is:
Where n is the number of pairs of data.

38
A correlation greater than .8 is generally described as strong , whereas a correlation less
than .5 is generally described as weak.
Coefficient of Determination, r 2 or R2 :
 The coefficient of determination, r 2
, is useful because it gives the proportion of the
variance (fluctuation) of one variable that is predictable from the other variable. It is a
measure that allows us to determine how certain one can be in making predictions from a
certain model/graph.
 The coefficient of determination is the ratio of the explained variation to the total
variation.
 The coefficient of determination is such that 0 < r 2
< 1, and denotes the strength of the
linear association between x and y.
 The coefficient of determination represents the percent of the data that is the closest to
the line of best fit. For example, if r = 0.922, then r 2 = 0.850, which means that 85% of
the total variation in y can be explained by the linear relationship between x and y (as
described by the regression equation). The other 15% of the total variation in y remains
unexplained.
 The coefficient of determination is a measure of how well the regression line represents
the data. If the regression line passes exactly through every point on the scatter plot, it
would be able to explain all of the variation. The further the line is away from the points,
the less it is able to explain.
C. Qualitative or judgmental methods
 Delphi Method
 Market Research
Delphi Method
 The Delphi method is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts
While maintaining their anonymity.
 It is forecasting techniques applied to subjective nature demand values.
 It is useful when there is no historical data from which to develop statistical
models and when managers inside the firm have no experience.
 Several knowledgeable persons are asked to provide estimates of demand or
forecasts of possible advances of technology.
 A coordinator sends questions to each member of the panel of outside experts,
and they are unknown to each other. Anonymity is important when some
members of the tend to dominate discussion or command a high degree of respect
in their field. The members tend to respond to the questions and support their
responses freely. The coordinator prepares a statistical summary of the responses
along with a summary of arguments for a particular response. If the variation

39
among the opinions too much the report is sent to the same group for another
round and the participants may choose to modify their previous responses. This
process will be continuing until consensus is obtained. So Delphi method is a
iterative process.
Market Research
 It is systematic approach to determine external consumer interest in a service or product
by creating and testing hypothesis through data-gathering surveys.
 It includes all research activities in marketing problem:
o Gathering, recording and analyzing the utility and marketability of the
product
o The nature of the demand
o The nature of competition
o The methods of marketing
o Other aspects of movements of product from the stage of to the point where
they get consumed.
 Market research gathers records and analysis all facts about problems relating to the
transfer and sale of goods and services from producer to consumer.
 Market Research procedure
Define the problem clearly
Develop a clear set of research objectives.
Supervise the task of collecting the data from the existing consumers.
Extract meaningful information from the collected data.
Prepares a report presenting the major findings and recommendations coming from the
study.
 It may be used to forecast demand for the short, medium and long-term. Accuracy is
excellent for the short term, good for the medium term and only fair for the long term.
Forecast Error:
Forecast error
Difference between forecast and actual demand.
MAD (mean absolute deviation):
n
F-D
=MAD
n
1=t
tt
where
t = period number
Dt = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t

40
n = total number of periods
Question: What is the MAD value given the forecast values in the table below?
Month Sales Forecast
1 220
2 250 255
3 210 205
4 300 320
5 325 315
Solution
Month Sales Forecast Abs
Error
1 220
2 250 255 5
3 210 205 5
4 300 320 20
5 325 315 10
40
10=
4
40
=
n
F-D
=MAD
n
1=t
tt
Note that by itself, the MAD only lets us know the mean error in a set of forecasts
Mean absolute percent deviation (MAPE)
100*
1 1
t
n
t
tt
D
FD
n


Demand Behavior:
• Trend
• a gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand
• Random variations
• movements in demand that do not follow a pattern
• Cycle
MAPE

41
• an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand
• Seasonal pattern
• an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand occurring periodically
Fig 3.3 Forms of Forecast Movement

42
CHAPTER-IV
FACILITY PLANNING
To produce products or services business systems utilize various facilities like plant and
machineries, ware houses etc.
Facilities can be broadly defined as buildings where people, material, and machines come
together for a stated purpose – typically to make a tangible product or provide a service.
The facility must be properly managed to achieve its stated purpose while satisfying several
objectives. Such objectives include producing a product or producing a service
• at lower cost,
• at higher quality,
• or using the least amount of resources.
4.1 Definition of Facilities Planning
Importance of Facilities Planning & Design Manufacturing and Service companies spend a
significant amount of time and money to design or redesign their facilities. This is an
extremely important issue and must be addressed before products are produced or
services are rendered.
A poor facility design can be costly and may result in:
• poor quality products,
• low employee morale,
• customer dissatisfaction.
4.2 Disciplines involved in Facilities Planning (FP)
Facilities Planning (FP) has been very popular. It is a complex and a broad subject. Within the
engineering profession:
• civil engineers,
• electrical engineers,
• industrial engineers,
• mechanical engineers are involved in FP.
Additionally,
• architects,
• consultants,
• general contractors,
• managers,
• real estate brokers, and
• urban planners are involved in FP.
4.3 Applications of Facilities Planning (FP)
Facilities Planning (FP) can be applied to planning of:
• a new hospital,
• an assembly department,

43
• an existing warehouse,
• the baggage department in an airport,
• department building of IE in EMU,
• a production plant, • a retail store,
• a dormitory,
• a bank,
• an office,
• a cinema,
• a parking lot,
• or any portion of these activities etc.
4.4 Factors affecting Facility Layout
Facility layout designing and implementation is influenced by various factors. These factors vary
from industry to industry but influence facility layout. These factors are as follows:
 The design of the facility layout should consider overall objectives set by the
organization.
 Optimum space needs to be allocated for process and technology.
 A proper safety measure as to avoid mishaps.
 Overall management policies and future direction of the organization.
4.5.1 Break-Even Analysis
The objective is to maximize profit. On economic basis only revenues and cost need to be
considered for comparing various locations.
The steps for locational break-even analysis are :
 Determine all relevant costs for each location.
 Classify the location for each location in to annual fixed cost and variable cost per unit.
 Plot the total costs associated with each location on a single chart of annual cost versus
annual volume.
 Selwct the location with the lowest total annual cost(TC) at the expected production
volume.
Question:
Potential locations A,B and C have the cost structures shown below for manufacturing a
product expected to sell for Rs 2700 per unit. Find the most economical location for an
expected volume of 2000 units per year.
Site Fixed Cost/year Variable Cost/Unit
A 6,000,000 1500
B 7,000,000 500
C 5,000,000 4000

44
Solution:
For each plant find the total cost using the formula
TC=Fixed cost+ Variable cost/unit (volume)
= FC+VC(v)
Site Total Cost
A 6,000,000+1500*2000=9,000,000
B 7,000,000+500*2000=8,000,000
C 5,000,000+4000*2000+13,000,000
From the above table, the cost of for the location B, is minimum. Hence it is to be selected
for locating the plant.
Production Volume Site A Site B Site C
500 6750000 7250000 7000000
1000 7500000 7500000 9000000
1500 8250000 7750000 11000000
2000 9000000 8000000 13000000
2500 9750000 8250000 15000000
3000 10500 000 8500000 17000000
Fig 3.1 Break even analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
totalcost
production volume
SITE A SITE B SITE C
400

45
From the graph, the different ranges of production volumes over which the best location to be
selected are summarized.
Range of production volume Best plant selected
0≤Q≤400
400≤Q≤1000
1000≤Q
A
B
C
The same details can be worked out using a graph
From the graph one can visualize that the site c is desirable for lower volume of production. For
higher volume production site B is desirable For moderate volumes of production site nA is
desirable. In the increasing order of production volume the switch over from one site to another
takes place as per the order below
Site C to site A to site B
Let Q be the volume at which we switch the site C to site A
Total cost of site C ≥ Total cost site A
5000000+4000Q ≥ 6000000+1500*Q
2500Q ≥1000000
Q ≥400 Units
Similarly the switch from site A to site B
Total cost of site A ≥ total cost of site B
6000000+1500Q ≥7000000+500Q
1000Q ≥1000000
Q ≥ 1000 Units
The cutoff production volume for different ranges of production may be obtained by using
similar procedure.

46
4.5.2 GRAVITY LOCATION PROBLEM
Objective- The objective of the gravity location problem, the total material handling cost based
on the squared Euclidian distance is minimized
Assumption:- If the same type of material handling equipment / vehicle is used for all the
movements, then it is equivalent to minimize the total weighted squared Euclidian distance, since
the cost per unit distance is minimized
ai = x-co-ordinate of the existing facilities i
bi = y- co-ordinate of the existing facilities i
x = x-co-ordinate of the new facilities
y= y-co-ordinate of the new facilities
wi= weight associated with the existing facilities i. This is the quantum of materials moved
between the new facility and existing facilities I per unit period
m= total no of existing facilities
the formula for the sum of the weighted squared Euclidian distance is given as:
( ) ∑ [( ) ( ) ]
The objective is to minimize f(x,y)
This is quadratic in nature the optimal values for the x and y may be obtained by equating partial
derivatives to zero
( )
,
( )
∑
∑
,
∑
∑
Optimal location (x*,y*)=(
∑
∑
,
∑
∑
)
These are weighted averages of the x-coordinate and y-co ordinates of the existing facilities.
Problem
There are five Existing facilities which are to be served by single new facilities are shown below
in the table

47
Existing facility (i) 1 2 3 4 5
Co-ordinates (ai,bi) (5,10)
(15,20)
(20,5)
(30,35)
(15,20)
(25,40)
(30,25)
(28,30)
(25,5)
(32,40)
No of trips of loads/years
(wi)
100
200
300
300
200
400
300
500
100
600
Find the optimal location of the new facilities based on giving location concept
SOLUTION
X*=
∑
∑
=
( )
( )
= 21
Y*=
∑
∑
=
( )
( )
=14.5
4.5.3 SINGLE FACILITY LOCATION PROBLEM
Objective – To determine the optimal location for the new facility by using the given set of
existing facilities co-ordinates on X-Y plane and movement of materials from a new facility to
all existing facilities.
Generally we follow rectilinear distance for such decision. The rectilinear distance between any
two points whose co-ordinates are (X1,Y1)and(X2,Y2) is given by the following formula
d12=| | | |
some properties of an optimum solution to the rectilinear distance location problems are as
follows:
1. The X-coordinate of the new facility will be same as the X-co-ordinate of some existing
facility. Similarly the Y co-ordinate of the new facility will coincide with the Y
coordinate of some existing facility. It is not necessary that both coordinates of the new
facility
2. The optimum X or Y-co-ordinate location for new facility is a median location. A median
location is defined to be a location such that no more than one half the item movement is
to the left/below of the new facility location and no more than one half the item
movement is to the right /above of the new facility location.
EXAMPLE
Consider the location of a new plant which will supply raw materials to a set of existing
plants in a group of companies, let there are 5 existing plants which have a materials movement

48
relationship with the new plant. Let the existing plants have locations of
(400,200),(800,500),(1100,800),(200,900)and(1300,300). Furthermore suppose that the number
of tons of materials transported per year from the new plant to various existing plants are
450,1200,300,800 and 1500, respectively the objective is to determine optimum location for the
new plant such that the distance moved(cost)is minimized
SOLUTION
Let (X,Y) be the coordinate of the new plant
The optimum X-coordinate for the new plant is determined as follows
Existing plant X coordinate weight Cumulative
Weight
4
1
2
3
5
200
400
800
1100
1300
800
450
1200
300
1500
800
1250
2450
2750
4250
Total 4250 tons
Thus the median location corresponds to a cumulative weight of 4250/2=2125 from above the
table, the corresponding X-coordinate value is 800, since the cumulative weight first exceeds
2125 at X=800
Similarly, the determination of Y coordinate is shown below
Existing plant Y coordinate weight Cumulative
Weight
1
5
2
3
4
200
300
500
800
900
450
1500
1200
300
800
450
1950
3150
3450
4250
Total 4250 tons
Thus the median location corresponds to a cumulative weight of 4250/2=2125 from above the
table, the corresponding Y-coordinate value is 500, since the cumulative weight first exceeds
2125 at X=500
The optimal (X*,Y*)=(800,500)

49
4.5.4 MINIMAX LOCATION PROBLEM
Objective- To locate the new emergency facility (X,Y) such that the maximum distance from the
new emergency facility to any of the existing facilities is minimized
Fi(X,Y)= Distance between the new facilities and the existing facilities
Fi(X,Y)=|X-ai|+|Y-bi|
Fmax (X,Y)=maximum of the distance between the new facility and various existing facilities
Fmax(X,Y)= ⏟ {|X- |+|Y- |}
The distance between new facility and existing facility may be rectilinear or Euclidean
m=different shops in an industry
in the event of fire in any one of these shops a costly firefighting equipment showed reach the
spot as soon as possible from its base location. Movements within any industry are rectilinear in
nature. Our objective is to locate the new fire fighting equipment within the industry such that
maximum distance it has to travel from its base location to any of the existing shops is
minimized.
Step 1
Find , , , and ,using following formula
= ⏟ ( ) ⏟ ( ) ⏟ ( ) ⏟ ( )
= ⏟ ( )
Step 2
Find the points and P2 using the following formula
P1=[1/2( ), ½( )]
P2=[1/2( ), ½( )]
Step 3
Any pt(X*,Y*) on the line segment joining points P1 and P2 is a minimax location that
minimize fmax(X,Y)

50
GRAPH OF MINIMAX LOCATION PROBLEM
EXAMPLE
In a foundry there are seven shops whose coordinates are summarized in the following table. The
company is interested in locating a new costly fire fighting equipment in the foundry determine
the minimax location of the new equipment
SL NO EXISTING FACILITIES CO-ORDINATE OF
CENTROID
1 Sand plant 10,20
2 Molding shop 30,40
3 Pattern shop 10,120
4 Melting shop 10,60
5 Felting shop 30,100
6 Fabrication shop 30,140
7 Annealing shop 20,190
SOLUTION
The movement of new equipment is constrained within in the foundry the assumption of
rectilinear distance more appropriate
The co ordinate of the centroid of the existing shops are
(a1,b1)=(10,20) (a2,b2)=(30,40) (a3,b3)=(10,120) (a4,b4)=(10,60) (a5,b5)=(30,100)
(a6,b6)=(30,140) (a7,b7)=(20,140)

51
Step 1
= ⏟ ( ) = min [(10+20),(30+40),(10+120),(10+60),(30+100),(30+140),(20+190)]
=min[30,70,130,70,130,170,210]=30
⏟ ( ) = max[30,70,130,70,130,170,210]=210
⏟ ( )=min[(-10+20),(-30+40),(-10+120),(-10+60),(-30+100),(-30+140),
(-20+190)]=min[10,10,110,50,70,110,170]=10
⏟ ( ) =max[10,10,110,50,70,110,170]=170
= ⏟ ( )=max[(210-30),(170-10)]=max[180,160]=180
P1=[1/2( ), ½( )]=[1/2(30-10),1/2(30+10+180)]=(10,110)
P2=[1/2( ), ½( )]= [1/2(210-170),1/2(210+170-180)]=(20,100)
Any point X*,Y* on the line segment joining pts (10,110),(20,100) is a minimax location for the
firefighting equipment.
4.6 Layout Design Procedure
Layout design procedures can be classified into manual methods and computerized methods.
Manual methods. Under this category, there are some conventional methods like travel chart
and Systematic Layout Planning (SLP).
Computerized methods
Under this method, again the layout design procedures can be classified in to constructive type
algorithm and improvement type algorithms.
Construction type algorithms
Automated Layout Design program (ALDEP)
Computerized Relationship Layout Planning (CORELAP)
Improvement type Algorithm
Computerized Relative Allocation of Facilities Technique (CRAFT)

52
4.6.1 Computerized Relative Allocation of Facilities Technique (CRAFT)
CRAFT algorithm was originally developed by Armour and Buffa. CRAFT is more widely used
than ALDEP and CORELAP. It is an improvement algorithim.It starts with an initial layout and
improves the layout by interchanging the departments pairwise so that transportation cost is
minimized.
CRAFT requirements
1. Initial layout
2. Flow data
3. Cost per unit distance
4. Total number of departments
5. Fixed departments
Number of such departments
Location of those departments
6. Area of departments
4.7 Algorithms and models for Group Technology
In this section Rank Order Clustering (ROC) and Bond Energy Algorithms are the methods can
be applied to Group Technology (GT).
4.7.1 Rank Order Clustering Algorithm (ROC)
This algorithm was developed by J.R King(1980).This algorithm considers the following data.
 Number of Components
 Component Sequence
Based on the component sequences, a machine-component incidence matrix is developed. The
rows of the machine-component incidence matrix represent the machines which are required to
processes the components. The columns of the matrix represent the component numbers.
STEPS IN ROC LOGARITHM
Step 0 : Input : Total no of components and component sequences
Step 1. From the machine component incidence matrix using the component sequences
Step 2. Compute binary equivalent of each row.
Step 3. Re arrange the rows of the matrix in rank wise (high to low from top to bottom)
Step 4. Compute binary equivalent of each column and check whether the column of the matrix

53
are arranged in rank wise (high to low from left to right)? If not go to step 5 otherwise go
to step 7
step 5. Rearrange the columns of the matrix rank wise and compute the binary equivalent of each
row
Step 6. Check whether the rows of the matrix are arranged rank wise? If not go to step 3;
Otherwise, go to step 7
Step 7. Print the final machine component incidence matrix.
By following this steps the problems can be solved.

54
Chapter 5: Motion Study
 Work study is a technique which is employed to ensure the best possible use of men,
machine, materials and energy in carrying out a specific activity. It deals with the
techniques of method study and work measurement.
 Work study is based on the principle that for every job, there is:
a) One best way of doing it.
b) A scientific method is the best and surest way of finding this best way.
c) The time taken for doing the job by the best way can be measured and set as
standards.
5.1 Motion study:
 It is defined as a systematic and critical study of existing method of doing a task with a
view to evolve the most efficient and economic method of doing it.
 It is a method for setting up employee productivity standards in which:
 A complex job is broken down into small or simple steps.
 The sequence of movements taken by the employee in performing those steps is
carefully observed to detect and eliminate wasteful motion.
 Precise time taken for each correct movement is measured.
From these measurements, production and delivery times and prices are computed and
incentive schemes are devised. Generally it is appropriate only for repetitive tasks. Time and
motion studies were pioneered by the US industrial engineer Frederick Winslow Taylor (1856-
1915) and developed by the husband and wife team of Frank Gilbreth (1868-1924) and Dr.
Lillian Gilbreth (1878-1972).
Objectives of motion study
The objectives of motion study are:
 To improve the procedure of doing a work.
 To improve the workplace layout (ultimately plant layout).
 To minimize the human motion for minimum fatigue of operators.
 To maximize the utility of resources (men, m/c, materials).
 To improve the overall working environment.
Method study
(Motion study)
Work measurement
(Time study)
Motion study
Time study

55
5.2 Principles of motion economy
 Analysis of an operation when carried out in terms of individual motion of a worker is known
as Motion analysis.
 The purpose of motion analysis is to design an improved method which would eliminate
unnecessary motion and employs human effort more productively. In doing so, the Principle of
motion economy is very much helpful.
 It consists of a set of rules designed by Gilbreth and later rearranged and amplified by others
(Branes Lowry et al) to develop better methods.
(i) It is classified into following 04 categories: Rules concerning human body, workplace
layout and material handling, Tools and Equipment Design and time conservation.
(ii)Rules concerning human body
1. Both hands should be used for productive work.
2. Both hands should start and finish their motion at the same time.
3. Except for the rest period, the two hands should not be idle at one time.
4. Motion of both the hands and arms are symmetrical, simultaneous and opposite to each
other.
5. Motions should be simple and involve minimum number of limbs. (The purpose-shortest
duration and minimum fatigue)
6. Motion should be smooth and continuous. There should not be sharp direction change and
frequent stop.
7. It is desirable for a worker to employ momentum to assist him.
8. A worker may use mechanical aids to assist him to overcome muscular effort.
(iii) Rules concerning workplace layout and material handling
1. There should be a definite, fixed and easy accessible location for materials and tools.
2. As far as possible, materials, tools and other mechanical devices should be kept close to
work place.
3. Gravity should preferably be employed wherever feasible with a conveyor for
transportation and delivering materials at the workplace between various workstations
and departments.
4. An assembled and final product should preferably be dropped on a conveyor near the
workplace so that gravity delivers the job at the required place.
5. Tools and materials should preferably be located in the order/sequence in which they will
be required for use.
6. Good illumination is required for proper seeing, fast operating and reducing the accidents.
7. In order to impart rest to some of the limbs, an operator may sometimes sit or stand while
working. This necessitates a relationship between his chair, height of table or
workpiece.
8. In order to reduce fatigue, the sitting arrangement of the worker should be comfortable
and adjustable.
9. All heavy parts should be lifted by mechanical devices.

56
(iv) Rules concerning Tools and Equipment Design
1. Jigs, fixtures and foot operated devices should be employed to reduce the work load on
hand.
2. Tools should be multipurpose and easy to handle.
3. Foot-operated switches and controls should be designed as far as possible to reduce the
workload on the hands.
4. Tools and materials should be properly arranged and located near the workpiece.
5. Tools and materials should be located in the order of their use.
6. There should be maximum surface contact between the tool handle and hand. It helps
proper application of hand force and minimizes fatigue.
7. Gravity should be used for delivery of materials and finished goods.
8. Where the work is supposed to be carried out by fingers, the load distribution on each
finger should be as per normal capacity of finger.
9. A worker should have the flexibility to stand or sit comfortably while working.
10. A worker should be able to operate levers and handles without changing the body
position.
11. The workplace should have proper ergonomics in terms of illumination, proper conditions
of heat, cold and humidity, reduced dust and noise, etc.
(v)Rules concerning time conservation
1. Even temporary ceasing of work by a man or m/c should not be encouraged.
2. Machine should not run idle as it leads to loss of production and power.
3. Two or more jobs should be done at the same time, or two or more operations should be
carried out on a job simultaneously.
4. Number of motions involved in completing a job should be minimized.
5. The loading and unloading of the job and the cycle time should be synchronized in such a
manner that one operator can be multi-functional or can simultaneously operate a
number of machines.
6 Procedure in Motion Analysis
The steps in motion analysis are as follows:
a) Select: Select the work to be studied.
b) Record: Record all the relevant facts of the proposed work by direct observation.
c) Examine: Examine the facts critically in sequence, using special critical examination
sheet.
d) Develop: Develop the best method i.e. the most practical, economic and effective
method under prevailing circumstances using the principle of motion economy.
e) Install: install that method as standard practice.
f) Maintain: maintain that standard practice by regular routine check.
Recording
The recording may trace the movements of men, material or details of various processes. The
principle is to use the simplest technique which will contain all relevant information needed for
investigation.
The different recording techniques are charts, diagrams, models and photographic aids. The
most commonly used recording techniques to cover most of the activities are shown in Table
5.1. The different symbols which are used in process charts are shown in Table 5.2.

57
Table 5.1 Recording Techniques
Recording Technique Information Recorded
(a)Charts
1. Outline process chart Principle operations and inspection of the
processes.
2. Flow process chart Activities of men, material or equipment are
analyzed into five events viz., operation,
transport, inspection, delay and storage.
3. Two-handed process chart Movements of two hands or limbs of the
operator.
4. Multiple activity chart Simultaneous/interrelated activities of operators
and/or machines on a common time scale.
5. Simultaneous Motion Cycle Chart (SIMO) Movement of body members of the operator,
expressed in terms of therbligs on a common
time scale.
(b) Diagrams and Models
1. Flow diagram Path of men, materials and equipments on a scale
model.
2. String diagram Same as above except for the variation that it
uses string to trace the path.
(c) Photographic aids
1. Cyclegraph Movement of hand obtained by exposing a
photographic plate to the light emitted from
small bulbs attached to the operator’s fingers.
2. Chrono-cyclegraphs Modification of cyclegraph in which recording is
made using flash light.
Table 5.2 Symbols used in Process Chart
Symbol Activity Purpose for which it is used
Operation
Indicates the main steps in a process, method of procedure,
usually the part, material or product concerned which is
modified or changed during the operation.
Transport Indicates movement of workers, material or equipment from
place to place.
Inspection Indicates any type of inspection, check, measurement, visual
scrutiny for quality and/or quantity.
Temporary
storage or delay
Indicates a delay in the sequence of events.
Storage
Indicates a controlled storage in which material is received into
or issued from stores under some form of authorization or an
item is retained for reference purposes.

58
5.3Time study
 It was proposed by Frederick Taylor and later modified to include a performance rating
(PR) adjustment.
 Once the method is established, the next objective is to set the standard time for the work.
This aspect of work study is called Time study (or Work measurement).
 The main objectives of time study are:
1) To determine the standard time for various operations which helps in fixing wage rates
and incentives.
2) To estimate the cost of product accurately.
3) To predict accurately the duration for a particular work and customer is promised
accordingly.
4) To determine the number of machines an operator can run.
5) To determine the optimum number of men and machine.
6) To provide information for planning and scheduling.
7) To balance the work of all workers working in a group.
8) To compare the work efficiency of different workers/operators.
Work measurement techniques
1. Time study using stop watch.
2. Predetermined motion time system (PMTS).
3. Work sampling.
4. Analytical estimating.
The following table shows the application of each technique and unit of measurement.
Technique Application Unit of measurement
Time study using stop watch Short cycle repetitive jobs Centiminute
(0.01 min)
PMTS Manual operations confined
to one work centre
TMU
(I TMU = 0.006 min)
Work sampling Long cycle jobs/
Heterogeneous operation
Minute
Analytical estimating Short cycle non-repetitive job Minute
Time study using stop watch is the most popular technique for determining standard time. The
first task of the analyst is to divide the work/job into smaller work elements in such a way that
the time for each element should not be less than 3 seconds because for such elements,
recording time is difficult. The steps of time study are as follows:
Step 1: First select the job to be studied. Breakdown the work content of the job into smallest
possible elements. Then, inform the worker and define the best method.
Step 2: Observe the time for appropriate number of cycles (such as 25 to 50).
Step 3: Determine the average cycle time (CT)
∑ Times
CT =
Step 4: Determine the normal time (NT)
No. of cycles

59
NT = CT (PR)
Where, PR is the performance rating.
Step 5: Determine the standard time using the following formula.
ST = NT (AF) where AF =
AF being the allowance factor.
5.4 Selection of job for Time Study
Time Study is conducted on a job
 which has not been previously time-studied.
 for which method change has taken place recently.
 for which worker(s) might have complained as having tight time standards.
5.5 Selection of Worker for Time Study
The worker on which time study should be conducted must
 have necessary skill for the job.
 have sufficient experience with the given method on the job (that is, he should have
crossed the learning stage).
 be an ‘average' worker as regards the speed of working.
 be temperamentally suited to the study (those who can't work in normal fashion when
watched, are not suitable for the study).
 have knowledge about the purpose of study.
5.6Time Study Equipment
The following equipment is needed for time study work.
• Timing device
• Time study observation sheet
• Time study observation board
• Other equipment
Timing Device. The stop watch is the most widely used timing device used for time study,
although electronic timer is also sometimes used. The two perform the same function with the
difference that electronic timer can measure time to the second or third decimal of a second
and can keep a large volume of time data in memory.
Time Study Observation Sheet. It is a printed form with spaces provided for noting down the
necessary information about the operation being studied, like name of operation, drawing
number, and name of the worker, name of time study person, and the date and place of study.
Spaces are provided in the form for writing detailed description of the process (element-wise),
recorded time or stop-watch readings for each element of the process, performance rating(s) of
operator, and computation. Fig. 5.1 shows a typical time study observation sheet.
1
1- % Allowance

60
Time Study Board. It is a light -weight board used for holding the observation sheet and
stopwatch in position. It is of size slightly larger than that of observation sheet used. Generally,
the watch is mounted at the center of the top edge or as shown in Figure near the upper right-
hand corner of the board. The board has a clamp to hold the observation sheet. During the time
study, the board is held against the body and the upper left arm by the time study person in
such a way that the watch could be operated by the thumb/index finger of the left hand. Watch
readings are recorded on the observation sheet by the right hand.

61
Other Equipment. This includes pencil, eraser, device like tachometer for checking the speed,
etc.
5.7 Why Dividing Work into Short Elements is essential?
For the purpose of time study, the task is normally broken into short elements and each
element is timed separately for the following reasons:
 To separate unproductive part of task from the productive one.
 To improve accuracy in rating. The worker may not work at the
same speed throughout the cycle. He may perform some elements faster and
some slower. Breaking of task into short elements permits rating of each
element separately which is more realistic than just rating once for the complete
cycle.
 To identify elements causing high fatigue. Breaking of task into short elements permits
giving appropriate rest allowances to different elements.
 To have detailed job specifications. This helps in detection of any variation in the
method that may occur after the time standard is established.
 To prepare standard data for repeatedly occurring elements.
The following guidelines should be kept in mind while dividing a task into elements.
(1)The elements should be of as short duration as can be accurately timed.
(This in turn, depends on the skill of the time study man, method of timing and recording, and
many other factors. Generally, with the stop watch, elements of duration less than 0.03 to 0.05
minute are difficult to time accurately. The elements should not normally be longer than 0.40
min.).
(2) Manually performed elements should be separated from machine paced elements.
(Time for machine paced elements can be determined by calculation). Machine elements are
not rated against a normal. This rule also helps in recognition of delays.
(3)Constant elements should be separated from variable elements.
(Constant elements are those elements which are independent of the size, weight,
length, or shape of the workpiece. For example, the time to pick screw driver
from its place and bring it to the head of a screw is constant, whereas the time
to tighten or loosen the screw is a variable, depending upon the length and
size of the screw).
(4) The beginnings and endings of elements should be easily distinguishable. These should
preferably be associated with some kind of sound.
(5) Irregular elements, those not repeated in every cycle, should be separated from regular
elements. For example, if the jig is cleaned off after every ten parts produced, "cleaning" is an
irregular element, and its time should be spread over ten cycles.
(6) Unnecessary motions and activities should be separated from those considered essential.
(7) Foreign or accidental elements should be listed separately. Such elements are generally of
non-repetitive type.

62
5.8 Number of cycles to be timed.
The following general principles govern the number of cycles to get the representative average
cycle time.
(1) Greater the accuracy desired in the results, larger should be the number of cycles observed.
(2) The study should be continued through sufficient number of cycles so that occasional
elements such as setting-up machine, cleaning of machine or sharpening of tool are observed
for a good number of times.
(3) Where more than one operator is doing the same job, short study (say 10 to 15 cycles)
should be conducted on each of the several operators than one long study on a single operator.
It is important that enough cycles are timed so that reliable average is obtained.
5.9 Following techniques are used to determine the number of cycles to be timed.
(i) Use of Tables: On the consideration of the cost of obtaining the data and the desired
accuracy in results, most companies have prepared their own tables for the use of time study,
which indicate the number of cycles to be timed as a function of the cycle time and the
frequency of occurrence of the job in the company.
(ii) Statistical methods: On the basis of the requirements of the particular situation
involved, accuracy and confidence level are decided (An accuracy of a confidence level of
95% is considered reasonable in most cases). A preliminary study is conducted in which some
(say N) cycles are timed. Standard deviation o of these (N) observations is calculated as
5.10 Performance Rating
It is a process of comparing the performance rate of a worker against standard performance.
The standard performance is different for different jobs. Te rating factor is used to convert the
observed time into normal time.
Normal time = Observed time × Performance level of worker
Standard performance level

63
5.11 Allowances
Allowances are added to normal time in order to arrive at standard time. The various
allowances are:
1. Process allowance: This is an allowance provided to compensate for enforced
idleness during a process. This includes loss of time due to (i) no work (ii) power
failure (iii) faculty material (iv) faculty tool or equipment.
2. Personal and Rest allowance: This is allowed to compensate for the time spent by
worker in meeting the physical needs, for instance a periodic break in the production
routine. The amount of personal time required by operator varies with the individual
more than with the kind of work, though it is seen that workers need more personal
time when the work is heavy and done under unfavorable conditions.
The amount of this allowance can be determined by making all-day time study or work
sampling. Mostly, a 5 % allowance for personal time (nearly 24 minutes in 8 hours) is
considered appropriate.
Rest allowance is a relaxation allowance to a worker to overcome fatigue incurred
during working. Excessive fatigue badly affects the performance of worker. This
rest/relaxation may vary from 12% to 20% of normal time from light to heavy.
3. Special Allowances: These allowances are given under certain special circumstances.
Some of these allowances and the conditions under which they are given are:
Policy Allowance: Some companies, as a policy, give an allowance to provide a
satisfactory level of earnings for a specified level of performance under exceptional
circumstance. This may be allowed to new employees, handicap employees, workers
on night shift, etc. The value of the allowance is typically decided by management.
Small Lot Allowance: This allowance is given when the actual production period is too
short to allow the worker to come out of the initial learning period. When an operator
completes several small-lot jobs on different setups during the day, an allowance as
high as 15 percent may be given to allow the operator to make normal earnings.
Training Allowance: This allowance is provided when work is done by trainee to allow
him to make reasonable earnings. It may be a sliding allowance, which progressively
decreases to zero over certain length of time. If the effect of learning on the job is
known, the rate of decrease of the training allowance can be set accordingly.
Rework Allowance: This allowance is provided on certain operation when it is known
that some percent of parts made are spoiled due to factors beyond the operator's
control. The time in which these spoiled parts may be reworked is converted into
allowance.
4. Policy allowance: It depends on the policy of an organization controlled by workers
union.
Problem 1: In a welding shop, a direct time study was done on a welding operation. One
inexperienced industrial engineer and one experienced industrial engineer conducted the study
simultaneously. They agreed precisely on cycle time but their opinion on rating the worker
differed. The experienced engineer rated the worker 100% and the other engineer rated the
worker 120%. They used a 10% allowance.

64
Cycle time (in minutes) Number of times observed
20 2
24 1
29 1
32 1
From the above statement,
(a) Determine the standard time using the experienced industrial engineer’s worker rating.
(b) Find the standard time using the worker rating of inexperienced industrial engineer.
Solution:
(a) Rating of worker at 100% by the experienced industrial engineer
Cycle time (CT) = (20×2+24×1+29×1+32×1)/5 = 25 min
Normal time (NT) = CT×PR = 25×100% = 25 min
Standard time (ST) = NT/(1-%A) = 25/(1-0.10) = 27.78 min
(b) Rating of worker at 120% by the inexperienced industrial engineer
Cycle time (CT) = (20×2+24×1+29×1+32×1)/5 = 25 min
Normal time (NT) = CT×PR = 25×120% = 30 min
Standard time (ST) = NT/(1-%A) = 30/(1-0.10) = 33.33 min

65
Chapter 6: Production Planning and Control
6.1 Production:
It is an organized activity of converting raw materials into useful products. But before starting
the actual production, production planning is done to anticipate possible difficulties and to
decide in advance as to how the production process should be carried out in a best and
economical way to satisfy customers. Since only planning of production is not sufficient,
hence management takes all possible steps to see that plans chalked out by planning
department are properly adhered to and the standard set are attained. In order to achieve it,
control over production is exercised. The ultimate aim of production planning and control
(PPC) is to produce the products of right quality in right quantity at the right time by using the
best and least expensive methods.
Production planning and control can thus be defined as:
 The process of planning the production in advance.
 Setting the exact route of each item.
 Fixing the starting and finishing date for each item.
 To give production orders to different shops.
 To see the progress of products according to order.
The various functions of PPC department can also be systematically written as:
Prior planning
Forecasting
Order writing
Product design
1. Planning phase
Active planning
Process planning & routing
Material control
Tool control
Loading
Scheduling
2. Action phase Dispatching
3. Control phase
Progress reporting
Corrective action
Data processing
Expediting
Replanning

66
Explanation on each term
1. Forecasting: Estimation of type, quantity and quality of future work.
2. Order writing: Giving authority to one or more persons to undertake a particular job.
3. Product design: Collection of information regarding specification, bill of materials,
drawing, etc.
4. Process planning and routing: Finding the most economical process of doing work and then
deciding how and where the work will be done.
5. Material control: It involves determining the material requirement and control of materials.
6. Tool control: It involves determining the requirement and control of tools used.
7. Loading: Assignment of work to man power and machining etc.
8. Scheduling: It determines when and in what sequence the work will be carried out. It fixes
the starting and finishing time for the job.
9. Dispatching: It is the transition from planning to action phase. In this phase the worker is
ordered to start the actual work.
10.Progress reporting: Data regarding the job progress is collected. It is interpreted by
comparison with the preset level of performance.
11.Corrective action: (i) Expediting means taking action if the progress reporting indicates a
deviation of the plan from the original set target. (ii) Replanning of the whole affair becomes
essential, in case expediting fails to bring the deviation plan to its right path.
Objectives of PPC
1. To determine the sequence of operations to continue production.
2. To issue co-ordinated work schedule of production to the supervisor/foreman of various
shops.
3. To plan out the plant capacity to provide sufficient facilities for future production
programme.
4. To maintain sufficient raw materials for continuous production.
5. To follow up production schedule to ensure delivery promises.
6. To evaluate the performance of various shops and individuals.
7. To give authority to right person to do right job.
PPC and related functions
The Fig. 6.1 shows the relation of PPC with other functional departments.

67
6.2 Aggregate planning (AP)
(1-5 years) (3-12 months, also known as AP) (1-90 Days)
Planning hierarchy
AP: Production planning in the intermediate range of time is termed as Aggregate planning.
Explanation of AP
The aggregate planning concentrates on scheduling production, personnel and inventory levels
during intermediate term planning horizon such as 3-12 months. Aggregate plans act as an
interface between strategic decision (which fixes the operating environment) and short term
scheduling and control decision which guides firm’s day-to-day operations. Aggregate
planning typically focuses on manipulating several aspects of operations-aggregate production,
inventory and personnel levels to minimize costs over some planning horizon while satisfying
PPC
Manpower
planning
Quality
planning
Distribution
planning
Marketing
planning
Financial &
Investment planning
Materials &
Procurement planning
Engineering &
Maintenance planning
Fig. 6.1 Relation of PPC with other functional departments
Planning process
Long Range Planning Intermediate Range Planning Short term Planning
Strategic decision
(1-5 years)
Aggregate planning
(3-12 months)
Short term Planning
(1-90 Days)

68
demand and policy requirements. In brief the objectives of AP are to develop plans that are
feasible and optimal.
Aggregate Production Planning indicates the level of output.
Aggregate Capacity Planning keep capacity utilization at desired level and test the feasibility
of planned output.
6.3 Decision options in Aggregate Planning
Decision options are basically of 2 types:
(i) Modification of demand for a product.
(ii) Modification of supply of a product.
(i) Modification of demand
Demand can be modified in several ways:
(a) Differential pricing: It is often used to reduce the peak demand or to increase the off
period demand. Some examples are: reducing off season fan/woollen item rate,
reducing the hotel rate in off season.
(b) Advertising and promotion: These methods are used to stimulate/smooth out demand.
Advertising is generally so timed as to increase demand during off period and to shift
demand from peak period to he off period.
(c) Backlogs: Through the creation of backlogs, the manufacturers ask customers to wait
for the delivery of products, thereby shifting the demand from peak period to off
period.
(d) Development of complementary products: Producer, who produces products which are
highly seasonal in nature, applies this technique. Ex: Refrigerator company produce
room heater, TV Company produces DVD, etc.
(ii)Modification of supply
There are various methods of modification of supply.
(a) Hiring and lay off employees: The policy varies from company to company. The man
power/work force varies from peak period to slack/off period. Accordingly, firing/lay
off employee is followed without affecting employee morale.
(b) Overtime and undertime: Overtime and undertime are common options used in cases
of temporary change of demand.
(c) Use of part time or temporary labour: This method is attractive as the payment of part
time/temporary labour is less.
(d) Subcontracting: The subcontractor may supply the entire product/some of the
components needed for the product.
(e) Carrying inventories: It is used by manufacturers who produces items in a particular
season and sell them throughout the year.
Aggregate planning
Aggregate Production Planning Aggregate Capacity Planning

69
Pure strategy:
If the demand and supply is regulated by any one of the following strategy, i.e.
(a) Utilizing inventory through constant work force.
(b) Varying the size of workforce.
(c) Subcontracting.
(d) Making changes in demand pattern.
Mixed strategy:
If the demand and supply is regulated by mixture of the strategies as mentioned, it is called
mixed strategy.
6.4 Sequencing
The order in which jobs pass through the machines or work stations is called sequencing. The
relative priorities are based on certain rules as discussed in the following:
1. First Come, First Served (FCFS) rule: This is a fair approach particularly applicable to
people. In case of inventory management, it is First In First Out (FIFO). That means
the 1st
piece of inventory at a storage area is the 1st
one to be used.
2. The shortest processing time (SPT) rule: SPT rule sequences jobs in increasing order
of their processing times (including set up).
3. The Earliest Due Date (EDD) rule: Sequences jobs in order of their due dates, earliest
first.
4. The critical ratio (CR) rule: Sequences jobs in increasing order of their critical ratio.
CR =
If CR>1 The job is ahead of schedule.
If CR<1 The job is behind schedule.
If CR=1 The job is exactly on schedule.
5. The Slack Time Remaining (STR) rule: It employs that the next job processed is the
one that has the least amount of slack time.
Slack = (Due date – Today’s date) – Remaining processing time
6.5 Sequencing of n jobs through 2 machines (Johnson’s rule)
Considering 2 machines and ‘n’ jobs as shown in Table 6.1.
Table 6.1 Job sequencing for n jobs
1 t11 t12
2 t21 t22
3 t31 t32
4 t11 t42
. . .
. . .
i ti1 ti2
. . .
n tn1 tn2
Aggregate planning strategies
Pure strategy Mixed strategy
Due date- Today’s date
Remaining processing time

70
Step 1: Find the minimum among ti1 and ti2.
Step 2(a): If the minimum processing time requires m/c-1, place the associated job in the 1st
available position in sequence.
Step 2(b): If the minimum processing time requires machine-2, place the associated job in the
last available position in sequence.
Step 3: Remove the assigned job from the table and return to Step 1 until all positions in
sequence are filled. (Ties may be considered randomly)
The above algorithm is illustrated with the following example.
Ex.1 Consider two machines and six jobs flow shop scheduling problem. Using Johnson’s
algorithm, obtain the optimal sequence which will minimize the makespan.
Job Time taken by machines
1 2
1 5 4
2 2 3
3 13 14
4 10 1
5 8 9
6 12 11
Sum 50 42
Solution: The working of the algorithm is summarized in the form of a table which is
shown below.
Stage Unscheduled job Min Assignment Partial sequence/
Full sequence
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 t42 Job 4-[6] × × × × × 4
2 1 2 3 5 6 t21 Job 2-[1] 2 × × × × 4
3 1 3 5 6 t12 Job 1-[5] 2 × × × 1 4
4 3 5 6 t51 Job 5-[2] 2 5 × × 1 4
5 3 6 t62 Job 6-[4] 2 5 × 6 1 4
6 3 t31 Job 3-[3] 2 5 3 6 1 4
Now the optimal sequence is 2-5-3-6-1-4.
The makespan is determined as shown below.
Job M/C-1 M/C-1 Idle time on
m/c-2Time in Time out Time in Time out
2 0 2 2 5 2
5 2 10 10 19 5
3 10 23 23 37 4
6 23 35 37 48 0
1 35 40 48 52 0
4 40 50 52 53 0
The makespan for this schedule is 53.

71
6.6 Line balancing
Plants having continuous flow process and producing large volume of standardized
components prefer conveyor assembly line. Here the work centres are sequenced in such a way
that at each stage a certain amount of total work is carried out so that at the end of conveyor
line, the final product comes out. This requires careful preplanning to balance the timing
between each work centres so that idle/waiting time is minimized. This process of internal
balancing is called Assembly line balancing.
Line balancing is defined as the procedure for creating work stations and assigning tasks to
them according to a predetermined technological sequence such that the idle time at each work
station is minimized.
In perfect line balancing, each work centre completes its assigned work within a fixed time
duration so that output from all operations are equal on the line. Such a perfect balancing is
difficult to achieve. Certain work station/centre take more operation time causing subsequent
work centre to become idle.
Balancing may be achieved by
Rearrangement of work stations
Adding m/c and or workers at some work stations.
So that all work centres take about the same amount of time.
Some terminologies used in line balancing:
1. Work station: It is a location on the assembly line where specified work is performed.
2. Cycle time: It is the amount of average time a product spends at one work station
Cycle time (CT) =
3. Task : The smallest grouping of work that can be assigned to a work station.
4. Task time: Standard time to perform task.
5. Station time: Total standard time at a particular work station.
Available time period
Total no. of products/output

72
A typical example will clarify the procedure of line balancing.
Ex: A company is setting an assembly line to produce 192 units per 8 hour shift. The
information regarding work elements in terms of times and intermediate predecessors are given
below:
Work
element
Time (Sec) Immediate
predecessor
A 40 None
B 80 A
C 30 D,E,F
D 25 B
E 20 B
F 15 B
G 120 A
H 145 G
I 130 H
J 115 C,I
Total 720
1. What is the desired cycle time?
2. What are the theoretical numbers of stations?
3. Use largest work element time rule to work out a solution on a precedence diagram.
4. What are efficiency and balance delay of the solution obtained?
Solution: The precedence diagram is represented as shown below:
(a) Cycle time: 8hours/192 units = 150 sec/unit.
(b) Sum of the time of all work elements = 720 secs
So, minimum number of work station = 720/150 = 4.8 = 5 stations.
A
G H
I
JB
D
E
F
C

73
(c) Assignment of work element to stations:
Station/
stations
Elements Work element time
(Sec)
Cumulative time (Sec) Idle time for
station (Sec)
S1 A 40 40 05
B 80 120
D 25 145
S2 G 120 120 10
E 20 140
S3 H 145 145 05
S4 I 130 130 05
F 15 145
S5 C 30 30 05
J 115 145
(d) Efficiency: ∑t×100/n×CT = 720×100/5×150 = 96%.
(e) Balance delay = 100-96 = 4%.
6.6 Flow control
Flow control applies to the control of continuous production as found in oil refineries, bottling
works, cigarette making factories, paper making mills and other mass manufacturing plants.
The function of flow control is to match up the rates of flow of parts, subassemblies and final
assemblies. Each part should be ready before the time of subassembling and each subassembly
should be made available at the time and place of assembly in order to make the final product.
Flow control can be performed through the following:
(a) Operation time: It amounts the time required to manufacture each part, to make one
subassembly and to execute one assembly. This information is available from the
operation sheet.
(b) Line balancing: the assembly line should be balanced. Each work station should have
the more or less same operating time and the various operations should be sequenced
properly.
(c) Routing and scheduling: A combination route and schedule chart showing the
fabrication of parts, subassemblies and final assembly is shown below.
4 5 6 7 10 1198
Fabrication SubassemblyRaw materials
Final
asse-
mbly Shipping
U
W
V
X
Y
Z
SA-C
SA-B
SA-A
Time (days)

74
The chart shows that part V & W started on 4th
day and the other parts on 5th
day such that
all the components become ready for subassembly on 6.5th
day and all the subassembly
become ready on 9th
day for final assembly. The assembly is over on 10th
day.
(d) Control of parts subassemblies and Assembly: A supervisory function coupled with
an appropriate information feedback system keeps a check whether the small parts
arriving in lots and big parts coming continuously are available at right time, in proper
quantities for making subassemblies as per scheduled plan.
(e) Dispatching: Dispatching is nothing but issuing orders and instructions to start a
particular work which has already been planned under routing and scheduling.
Functions of Dispatching
(i) Assignment of work to individual man, m/c or work place.
(ii) Release necessary order and production firm.
(iii) Authorize for issue of materials, tools, jigs, fixtures, gauges, dies for various jobs.
(iv) Required materials are authorized to move from stores or from operation to
operation.
(v) Issue m/c loading and schedule chart, route sheet, etc.
(vi) To fix up the responsibilities of guiding and controlling the materials and
operation processes.
(vii)To issue inspection order.
(viii) Issue of time tickets, drawing, instruction cards.
Dispatch procedure
The product is broken into different components. For each component, operations are
mentioned in order as shown in Figure aside.
Route sheet for component C
Material-
Operation 1-
Operation 2-
The various steps of dispatch procedure for each operation are listed below:
(a) Store issue order: Authorise store department to deliver required material.
(b) Tool order: Authorise tool store to release the necessary tools. The tools can be
collected by the tool room attendant.
(c) Job order: Instruct the worker to proceed with operation.
(d) Time tickets: It records the beginning and ending time of the operation and forms the
basis for workers pay.
(e) Inspection order: Notify the inspectors to carry out necessary inspections and report
the quality of the component.
(f) Move order: Authorise the movement of materials and components for one facility to
another for further operation.
In addition, there are certain dispatch aspects such as:
(1) All production information should be available beforehand.
(2) Various order cards and drawing with specification should be ready.
(3) Equipment should be ready for use.
(4) Progress of various orders should be recorded.
(5) All production records should be on Gantt chart.

75
Centralized and decentralized dispatching
(a) Centralized Dispatching:
In centralized dispatching system, a central dispatching department orders directly
to the work stations. It maintains a full record of the characteristics and capacity of
each equipment and work load against each m/c. The orders are given to the shop
supervisor who runs his machine accordingly. In most of the cases, the supervisor
can also give suggestions as regards to loading of m/cs under him. A centralized
system has the following advantages:
1.A greater degree of overall control can be achieved.
2.Effective coordination between different facilities is possible.
3.It has greater flexibility.
4.Because of urgency of orders, changes in the schedule can be made easily
without upsetting the whole system.
5.Progress of orders can be readily assessed at any time because all the
information is available is available at a central place.
6.There is effective and better utilization of manpower and machines.
(b) Decentralized Dispatching:
In decentralized dispatching system, the shop supervisor performs the dispatch
function. He/she decides the sequence of handling different orders. He/she
dispatches the orders and materials to each equipment and worker, and is required
to complete the work within the prescribed duration. In case he/she suspects delay,
he/she informs the production control department. A centralized dispatching
system has the following advantages:
(i) Much of red tape (excessive adherence to official rules) is minimized.
(ii) Shop supervisor knows the best about his shop.
(iii)Communication gap is reduced.
(iv) It is easy to solve day to day problem.
Levels of Dispatch office: At plant manager’s level.
At shop superintendent level.
At shop supervisor’s level.
At specialist level.
6.7 Expediting
Expediting and dispatching are frequently performed under the same agency, particularly in
special project control. An expeditor follows the development of an order from the raw
material stage to the finished product. He/she is often given the authority and facilities to move
materials or semi-finished products to relieve congestion in production flow.
6.8 Gantt chart
HL Gantt has developed a simplified graph which represents/displays the planned starting and
finishing time of each task on a time scale. But it does not show the interrelationship among
the tasks. On the left of the chart is a list of the activities and along the top is a suitable time
scale. Each activity is represented by a bar; the position and length of the bar reflects the start
date, duration and end date of the activity. This allows you to see at a glance:

76
 What the various activities are
 When each activity begins and ends
 How long each activity is scheduled to last
 Where activities overlap with other activities, and by how much
 The start and end date of the whole project
6.8 Line of balance (LOB)
LOB is a graphical technique used to find out the state of completion of various processes at a
given time for a product. This technique is economical when the production volume is limited
and applied to the production of aircrafts, missiles, heavy machines, etc.
For drawing the LOB, the following information are required:
 Contracted schedule of delivery
 Key operations in making the product.
 The sequence of key events.
 The expected/observed lead time w.r.t. delivery of final product.
Based on above information, a diagram is drawn which compares pictorically the planned
verses actual progress. This is called line of balance (LOB).
6.9 Learning curve
From our everyday experience, we know that the first time we perform a skilled job, it takes
much longer time than an experienced worker. But the next time if we perform the same job,
we can perform it not only at faster rate but also with higher quality. Each additional time we
do the same job, we become faster and better in performing. This improvement in productivity
and quality of work as a job is repeated is called quality of work, as a job is repeated is called
learning effect.
Similarly, when the number of units produced increases, the direct labour hours required per
unit decreases for a variety of reasons such as:
(i) Workers become more and more skilled for a particular set of task.
(ii) Improvement in production methods and tooling takes place.
(iii)Improvement in layout and flow takes place and many other reasons.
While designing jobs, estimating work standards, scheduling production and planning
capacity, it is important to know at what rate workers productivity will increase through
learning. For example, if it takes a worker 10 hours to make the first 50 units of product, we
don’t want to plan on it taking 10 hours for every additional 50 units. Otherwise we will
underestimate our production capacity and overstaff our operations. The role of worker
learning in production, its effect on production costs and ways to measure it were popularized
long ago.
The rate of learning and learning curve
The labour content (in person-hrs per unit) requires to make a product, expressed as a function
of the cumulative number of units made is called Learning Curve. A typical learning curve is
shown below.

77
We normally express the rate of leraning in terms of how quickly the labour requirement
decrease as we double the cumulative amount of output. We say that an activity exhibits an x%
learning rate or has an x% learning curve, if the amounts of labour required to make the 2nth
units of the product is x% of that required to make the nth unit. More generally, the amount of
time required to make the nth unit of the product will be
Tn = T1×na
where Tn = Time to make the nth unit.
T1 = Time to make 1st unit.
a = (ln x/ln 2)
x = learning rate (expressed as decimal)
This learning data can also be represented in tabular form.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Labour content
(person-hrs/unit)
Cumulative nos of unit produced
90% learning

78
Chapter 7: Project Management
Project
A project is an interrelated set of activities that has a definite starting and ending point and
those results in a unique product. That means projects are not repetitive. Few examples of
projects are:
1. Constructing a bridge, dam, highway or building.
2. Producing an airplane, missile or large machine.
3. Introducing a new product.
4. Installing a large computer system.
5. Redesigning the layout of plant or office.
6. Construction of a ship.
7. Fabrication of a steam boiler.
8. Maintenance of major equipments/Plants.
9. Commissioning of a power plant/factory.
10.Conducting National Election.
Basic steps in project management
Managing a project, regardless of its size and complexity, requires identifying every activity to
be undertaken and planning when each activity must begin and end in order to complete the
overall project on time. Typically, all projects involve the following steps:
1. Describe the project.
2. Develop a network model.
3. Insert time estimates.
4. Analyze the model.
5. Develop the project plan.
6. Periodically assess the progress of the project and repeat steps 2-6 as needed.
Network: A network is the graphical representation of the project activities arranged in a
logical sequence and depicting all the interrelationships among them.
Terminologies used in Network diagram:
1. Activity: An activity means work/job. It is a time consuming process. It is represented
by an arrow in the network diagram (AOA system).
Activity-on-arc (AOA ) network
1
3
2
4
A
B
C
Event
Event Event
Event
A
B
C
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity on node (AON)

79
2. Event: An event is a specific instant of time marks the start and end of an activity.
3. Critical path: It is the sequence of activities which decides the total project duration.
4. Duration (d): Duration is the estimated or actual time required to complete a task or an
activity.
5. Total project time: Time to complete the project. In other words, it is the duration of
critical path.
6. Earliest start time (E): It is the earliest possible time at which an activity can start. It is
calculated by moving from 1st
to last event in the network diagram.
7. Latest start time (Li): It is the latest possible time by which an activity can start.
8. Earliest finish time (Ej): It is the last event time of the head event. It is calculated by
moving backward in the network diagram.
9. Latest finish time (Lj): It is the last event time of the head event. It is calculated by
moving backward in the network diagram.
10. Float/Slack: Slack is with reference to an event and Float is with reference to an
activity.
11. Free float: (Latest Finish Time – Earliest Start Time) – Activity duration.
Rules for Network Construction:
The following are the primary needs for constructing Activity on Arc (AOA) network diagram.
1. The starting event and ending event of an activity are called tail and head event
respectively.
2. The network should have a unique starting node. (tail event)
3. The network should have a unique completion node. (head event)
4. No activity should be represented by more than one are ( ) in the network.
5. No two activities should have the same starting node and same ending node.
6. Dummy activity is an imaginary activity indicating precedence relationship only.
Duration of dummy activity is zero.
7. The length of the arrow bears no relationship to the activity time.
8. The arrow in a network identifies the logical condition of dependence.
9. The direction of arrow indicates the direction of workflow.
10. All networks are constructed logically or based on the principle of dependency.
11. No event can be reached in a project before the completion of precedence activity.
12. Every activity in the network should be completed to reach the objective.
13. No set of activities should form a circular loop.
Time estimation of an activity
If t0 = Optimistic time (i.e. time estimate for fast activity completion).
tp = Pessimistic time (maximum time duration an activity can take).
tm = Most likely time
te = The expected time of an activity = (t0+ 4tm+ tp)/6
Variance of an activity time
2
2
6
p o
e
t t

 
  
 
(c) Network scheduling
The biggest advance in project scheduling since the development of the Gantt chart in 1917
was made between1956-58. During this period, two new scheduling techniques were
developed. These techniques are
(i) Program evaluation and review technique (PERT)
(ii) Critical path method (CPM)

80
Both are based on the use of a network/graphical model to depict the work tasks being
scheduled. The popularity of network based scheduling can be attributed to its many benefits,
especially its ease use. Other benefits include the following.
1. It provides a visual display of needed task and their temporal ordering, which makes it easy
to see how tasks should be sequenced as shown below. This assists communication and co-
operation among task teams because each team can see how its work affects other team.
2. It provides a relatively accurate estimate of the time required to complete the project at the
proposed resource level.
3. It identified and highlights the tasks that are critical to keep the project on schedule.
4. It provides a method for evaluating the time-cost tradeoffs resulting from reallocating
resources among tasks.
5. It provides a method for monitoring the project throughout its life cycle. As the project
progresses, PERT/CPM easily identifies change in which tasks are critical and how the
expected completion date is affected.
6. It provides a convenient method for incorporating uncertainty regarding task times into the
schedule and it helps to evaluate the effect of this uncertainty on project completion time.
Difference between PERT and CPM
Sl.
No.
PERT CPM
1 PERT is a probabilistic model with
uncertainty in activity duration. Activity
duration is calculated from t0, tp and tm.
CPM is a deterministic model with well
known activity duration.
2 It is an event oriented approach. It is an activity oriented approach.
3 PERT terminology uses word like
network diagram, event and slack.
CPM terminology employs word like arrow
diagram, nodes and float.
4 The use of dummy activity is required for
representing the proper sequencing.
No dummy activity required.
5 PERT basically does not demarcate
between critical and non-critical activities.
CPM marks the critical activities.
6 PERT is applied in projects where
resources are always made available.
CPM is applied to projects where minimum
overall cost is the prime importance.
7 PERT is suitable in Defence project and
R&D where activity time can’t be readily
predicted.
Suitable for plant maintenance, civil
construction projects etc. where activity
duration is known.
Steps in using network techniques
1. Plan of project

81
(a) The project is analyzed by determining all the individual activities (sometimes called
tasks/jobs/operation) that must be performed to complete it.
(b) A planned sequence of these activities are shown on a network (a graph where arrow
and circles represent the relationship among project activities)
2. Schedule of project
(a) How long it will take to perform each activity is estimated.
(b) In order to locate the critical path, calculation is performed (the longest time chain of
sequential activities which determines the duration of project). This step also provides
other information that is useful in scheduling.
(c) The above information are used to develop a more economical and efficient schedule.
3. Project monitoring
(a) The plan and schedule started above are used to monitor the progress.
(b) Throughout the execution of project, the schedule is revised and updated so that the
schedule represents the current plan and status of progress.
(c) PERT, Critical path, Most likely time estimates.
The above points can be explained with the following examples.
Ex: 1 A project consists of the following activities and time estimates.
Activity Least time (t0) in days Greatest time (tp) in days Most likely time (tm) in days
1-2 3 15 6
1-3 2 14 5
1-4 6 30 12
2-5 2 8 5
2-6 5 17 11
3-6 3 15 6
4-7 3 27 9
5-7 1 7 4
6-7 2 8 5
Construct the network. Determine the expected task time and the critical path.
Solution: The network diagram is shown below:
Expected task time (te) = (t0+ 4tm+ tp)/6
Using this formula, te for different activities are shown below.
1
52
63 7
4

82
Activity te value
1-2 7
1-3 6
1-4 14
2-5 5
2-6 11
3-6 7
4-7 11
5-7 4
6-7 5
From the above figure, 1-4-7 is the critical path. The project duration is 14+11 = 25 days.
Resource levelling
There are two types of resource problem
(i) Resource smoothing
(ii) Resource levelling
(i) Resource smoothing:
There may be a ceiling on the availability of resources in a particular period of time. For
instance, only Rs 125 lakh per annum may be available to the project and if unutilized during
the year, the remaining amount lapses. The resource analysis used for this type of case is called
Resource smoothing.
(ii) Resource levelling:
A resource may be required to be used in a uniform manner. For instance, in the present day
labour situation one cannt have 100 labourers yesterday, 30 today and 80 tomorrow. Once a
labour is hired, it is difficult to hire him. The rate of usage of labour has to be uniform.
Resource analysis used for this category of problems is called Resource levelling.
Example: Consider the following problem of project scheduling. Obtain a schedule which will
minimize the peak manpower requirement and smooth out period to period variation of
manpower requirement.
Activity Duration in Weeks Manpower requirements
1-2 6 8
1-3 10 4
1-4 6 9
2-3 10 7
2-4 4 6
3-5 6 17
4-5 6 6
7
14
6
11
11
1
52
63 7
4
5
7
5
4

83
The corresponding manpower requirement histogram is shown below.
From this figure, it is observed that the peak manpower requirement is 21 and it occurs from 0
to 6 weeks. The activities which are scheduled during the period are: (1-2), (1-3) and (1-4).
The activity 1-2 is critical activity. So it should not be disturbed. Between activities (1-3) and
(1-4), the activity (1-3) has high slack value of 6 weeks (whereas its only 4 weeks for (1-4)).
Hence, it can be started at the end of 6 weeks. The corresponding modification is shown by the
following histogram.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
9
1 2 3 5
41
1
6
6
8 7 17
4
Time (Weeks)
8+4+9=21
Activities
(1-2), (1-3),
(1-4)
7+4+6=
17
Activities
(2-3), (1-
3), (2-4)
7+6=13
Activities
(2-3), (4-5)
17
Activity
(3-5)
6 10 16 22
21
17 17
13
Time (Weeks)
Total manpower

84
The manpower requirement is now smooth throughout the project duration.
Activities
(1-2), (1-4)
Activiti
es
(2-3),
(1-3),
(2-4)
Activities
(2-3), (1-3)
& (4-5)
Activity
(3-5)
Time (Weeks)
Total manpower
6 10 16 22

85
Chapter 8: Modern Trends in Mabufacturing
Basic concepts of CAD
Computer Aided Design (CAD) involves the use of computer in
 Creating
 Analyzing
 Modifying
 Optimizing
 Drafting/ Documenting
A product data so as to achieve its design goal efficiently and effectively. The various
phases of CAD section are presented in the following form:
As per the above figure, there are four phases of CAD process. A geometric model is
generated first. It is analyzed for the desired design conditions and is optimized before
finally getting documented and drafted.
CAD tool includes the following three elements.
(i) Computer modelling and computer graphics
Geometric modelling and computer graphics help to generate and visualize
models on which the analysis is done subsequently. Modelling and
designing are being used as synonyms now a day’s. The kind of analysis
which can be done on a model is controlled by the type of model used.
Hence the computer aided model must be made only after confirming the
kind of analysis which is to be performed on the model. Eg. Some model
may not work for fluid dynamics and vibration analysis.
(ii) Analysis and optimization tools
These are the algorithms and programs for exclusive application which are
applied on to the virtual product already modelled. This section can predict
the behaviour of the model under the loading condition when all constraints
are simulated using boundary conditions. The analysis process is iterated
number of times with varying attributes to optimize the results. The results
so obtained from the model can be anticipated from the behavior of actual
model in real situation.
Geometric
model
Design and
Analysis
Design
optimizatio
n
Drafting and
Documentatio
n

86
(iii) Drafting and documentation
The model already created, analysed and optimized guarantees a safe model
under the real conditions. This safe model drawing is to be communicated
to production floor with technical illustrations. The tool used for this
application is called Computer Aided Drafting orcalled Computer Aided
Design and Drafting (CADD). Computer Aided Modelling/Designing and
Computer Aided Drafting represent two different concepts. Their
differences are presented in the following:
Sl.No. Computer Aided
Modelling/Designing
Computer Aided Drafting
1. This is done before analysis is
performed on the geometric
model.
This is done after analysis is
performed on the geometric
model.
2. This provides dimension which
may/maynot be safe.
The dimensions are safe since
these are obtained after the
analysis.
3. This is 2D drawing/3D model This is generally 2D drawing.
4. This model is used for design
analysis
These are made basically for
conveying the production
design.
Basic concepts of CAM (Computer Aided Manufacturing)
CAM is defined as a process of use of computers in planning, manufacturing,
inspecting and controlling the manufacturing operation directly or indirectly. CAM
includes those activities which manufacture the product with the product drawing and
technical illustration as a input from the CAD and then make the product ready for
shipment after inspection and packaging. The various phases of CAM section are
shown below.
CAM Processes
In CAM, the basic information required is actually geometrical information which
is supplied to the CAM processes through the CAD model already generated and
analyzed. Interface algorithm extract that necessary geometrical information from
the CAD model and feed it for process planning, part programming, machining,
inspection and packaging.
Geometric
model
Process
planning
NC Part
Programming
Machining
Inspection
Packaging

87
CAM tool includes the following three elements:
(i) CAD Tool: The basic geometric information of the model is extracted from the
geometric model created in the CAD phase of the product cycle. From the
model necessary information regarding the shape, contour and sizes is
extracted so as to implement in the manufacturing tool.
(ii) Manufacturing tool: The fundamental of manufacturing process which are
used defines the manufacturing tool. It describes the method in which the
product can be manufactured. This includes generation of part
programming and manufacturing and computer aided process planning
(CAPP) and tool and cutter design, etc.
(iii) Networking tools: The knowledge of networking and interfaces is required for
communication capability between various machines and computers. e.g.
transferring a part program from one computer to 04 different machines,
controlling a robot from a computer etc. a communication or networking
tool is a must for CAM to be operational effectively.
CAM employs computers for 02 basic purposes:
(a) Computer monitoring and control: Where computers are used to
control and monitor the applications. The major applications include in
this category are: controlling machines and robots.
(b) Manufacturing support application: It includes those applications
which are not controlled directly by computer but are used to support
the primary and direct operation. Such applications include numeric
part programming, CAPP, generating computer aided schedules and all
other kinds of planning.
(c) Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS): A FMA integrates all major
elements of manufacturing into a highly automated system. FMS has
born in the latter half of 1960’s as a means to improve productivity of
small and medium volume production.

88
The major components are:
(a) Automated m/c tools: In order to achieve the system flexibility, NC/Computer
controlled general purpose m/c tools are normally used.
(b) Work transportation device: These devices are used to carry parts between
loading area and machining station. Individual conveyors are used for high
degree of flexibility.
(c) Material handling device: These devices transport work in process or tolls to
assigned positions.
(d) Loading and unloading station: The raw materials and/or finished parts are
loaded/unloaded in this area by robot.
(e) Tool room and storage: All the tools used in this system are stored in the tool
room and transported to machining centers when required.
(f) Auxiliary equipments: Besides m/c tools, an FMS can also include cleaning
online inspection, automated measurement and gauging equipments.
(g) System controller: The system controller oversees the operation of entire
FMS. It coordinates the operation of variety of equipments in the system.
M/C Tools
automated
Storage
Auxiliary
equipment
Tool room
System Controller
Loading and
unloading
station
Work
transportation
device
Material
handling
equipment
Material flow
Information
flow
Structure of FMS

89
Advantages of FMS
1. There is a greater potential to make changes in terms of product, technology.
2. It reduces both direct and indirect labour cost because of automatic handling,
gauging and inspection facilities.
3. It provides reduced manufacturing lead time, reduced inventory of parts (both
stock and work in progress).
4. It improves the utilization of equipments. In this case, utilization is 85%
compared to 50% in conventional method.
5. It provides a better management control by integration of computers.
6. It provides better and more consistent products.
Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM)
 CIM is defined as a process of integration of CAD, CAM and business
aspects of a factory and it attempts to describe complete automation with all
processes functioning under computer control.
 CIM includes Management Information System (MIS), sales marketing,
finance, database management system, design, manufacturing, monitor and
control and bar code software etc., which helps to manage and control the
overall factory environment. CAD, CAM and CIM basically involve
fundamental principles of these underlying branches with hardware and
software to operate and utilize them effectively.
Just In Time (JIT)
The Just-in-time production concept was first implemented in Japan around 1970’s to
eliminate waste of
 Materials
 M/C
 Capital
 Manpower
 Inventory
through out the manufacturing system. The JIT concept has the following objectives:
Receive supplies just in time to be used.
Produce parts just in time to be made into subassembly.
Produce subassemblies just in time to be assembled into finished
products.
Produce and deliver finished products just in time to be sold.

90
In order to achieve these objectives, every point in the organization where buffer
stocks normally occur is identified. Then, critical examinations of reasons for such
stocks are made. A set of possible reasons for maintaining high stock is listed below:
 Unreliable/unpredictable deliveries
 Poor qualities from supplier
 Increased variety of materials
 Machine break down
 Labourabsentism
 Frequent machine setting
 Variations in operators capabilities
 Schedule charges
 Changing product priorities
 Product modification
In traditional manufacturing, the parts are made in batches, placed in inventory and
used whenever necessary. This approach is known as ‘Push system’ which means that
parts is produced in accordance with the order. That means the rate at which the
products come out at the end of final assembly matches with the order quantity for that
product. There are no stockpiles within the production process. It is also called zero
inventory, stockless production, demand scheduling. Moreover, parts are inspected by
the workers as they are manufactured. This process of inspection takes a very short
period. As a result of which workers can maintain continuous production control
immediately identifying defective parts and reducing process variation. This JIT
system ensures quality products. Extra work involved in stockpiling parts is
eliminated.
Advantages of JIT
1. Exact delivery schedule is possible with JIT practices.
2. Quality of product is improved.
3. Lower defect rates i.e. lower inspection cost.
4. Lower raw material inventory, in process inventory and finished product
inventory resulting lower product cost.
5. Satisfying market demand without delay in delivery.
6. Flexibility in utilizing manpower as workers is trained to do many jobs.
7. JIT helps in effective communication and reduce waste.
8. Less shop floor space is required.
9. Employee morale is high in an efficient working environment.
10. JIT reduces scrap and need for rework.
ISO 9000
ISO stands for International organization for standardization. It is an international body
consists of representatives from more than 90 countries. The national standard bodies
of these countries are the member of this organization. These are non-governmental

91
organizations and can provide common standards of goods and services on
international trades.
ISO9000 series has 5 numbers of international standards on quality management which
are listed below with different objectives.
ISO 9000: Provides guide lines on selection and use of quality management and
quality assurance standards.
ISO 9001: This is applicable for industries doing their own design and development,
production, installation and servicing. It has 20 elements.
ISO 9002: It has 18 elements. It is same as ISO 9001 without the 1st
two tasks i.e.
design and development.
ISO 9003: It has 12 elements covering final inspection and testing for laboratories and
warehouses.
ISO 9004: This provides guidelines to interpret the quality management and quality
assurance. It also has suggestions which are not mandatory.
Benefits of ISO 9000 Series
1. This gives competitive advantage in the global market.
2. Consistency in quality, as ISO helps in detecting non-conforming early
which makes it possible to rectify.
3. Documentation of quality procedure adds clarity to quality system.
4. It ensures adequate and regular quality training for all members of the
organization.
5. It helps in customers to have cost effective purchase procedure.
6. The customers during purchase from firm holding ISO certificate need
not spend much on inspection and testing. This will reduce quality cost and
lead time.
7. This will aid to improved morale and involvement of workers.
8. The level of job satisfaction will be more.
9. This will help in increasing productivity.
Steps in ISO 9000 Registration
1. Selection of appropriate standard from ISO 9001/9002/9003 using
guidelines given in ISO 9000.
2. Preparation of quality manual to cover all the elements in the selected
model.
3. Preparation of procedure and shop floor instruction which are used at the
time of implementing the system. Also document these items.
4. Self-auditing to check compliance of the selected module.
5. Selection of a registrar (an independent body with knowledge and
experience to evaluate any one of the three quality systems i.e. ISO 9001/ 9002/
9003) and the application is to be submitted to obtain certificate for the selected
quality system/ model.

92
Sl.No. System requirement ISO 9001 ISO 9002
1 Management responsibility
2 Quality system
3 Product identification & traceability
4 Inspection status
5 Inspection & Testing
6 Inspection, measuring & test equipment
7 Control of non-conforming products
8 Handling, storage, packaging &
delivery
9 Document control
10 Quality record
11 Training
12 Statistical technique
13 Internal auditing
14 Contract review
15 Purchasing
16 Process control
17 Purchaser’s supplied product
18 Corrective action
19 Design control
20 Servicing
Quality circle (QC)
Quality circle may be defined as a small group of workers (5 to 10) who do the same
work voluntarily meeting together regularly during their normal working time usually
under the leadership of their own supervisor to identify, analyze and solve work related
problems.
This group presents the solution to the management and wherever possible implement
the solution themselves. The QC concept was first originated in Japan in 1960. The
basic cycle of a quality circle starts from identification of problem.
Philosophical basis of QC
1. A belief that people will take pride and interest in their work if they get
autonomy and take part in decision making.
2. It develops a sense of belongingness in the employees towards a
particular organization.
3. A belief that each employee desires to participate in making the
organization a better place.
4. It is a mean/method for the development of human resources through the
process of training, work experience and participation in problem solving.
Present
Not Present

93
5. A willingness to allow people to volunteer their time and effort for
improvement of performance of organization.
6. The importance of each member’s role in meeting organizational goal.
Characteristics of quality circle
1.QCs are small primary groups of employees/workers whose lower limit is 3 and
upper limit is 12.
2.Membership is voluntary. The interested employees in some areas may come
together to form a quality circle.
3.Each quality circle is led by area supervisor.
4.The members meet regularly every week/ as per agreeable schedule.
5.The QC members are specially trained in technique of analysis and problem
solving in order to play their role efficiently.
6.The basic role of quality circle is to identify work related problems for
improving quality and productivity.
7.QC enables the members to exercise their hidden talents, creative skills, etc.
8.It promotes the mutual development of their member through cooperative
participation.
Problem
identification
Problem
selection as
per priority
Implementation
of solution
Present solution
to management
Problem
analysis
Generate
different
solutions
Select best
solution
Prepare plan
of action
Quality Circle

94
9.It gives job satisfaction because of identifying and solving challenging problems
while performing the job.
10. It provides their member with opportunities for receiving public recognition from
the company’s management.
11. The members also receive recognition in the form of memento, certificate and
privileges.
12. It also contributes to their self-esteem and self-confidence through acceptance of
their recommendation by the management.
Objectives of QC
1. To improve the quality and productivity.
2. To reduce the cost of products/ services by waste reduction, effective
utilization of resources eliminating error/ defects.
3. To utilize the hidden creative intelligence of the employees.
4. To identify and solve work related problems.
5. To motivate people for solving challenging tasks.
6. To improve communication within the organization.
7. To increase employee’s loyalty and commitment to organizational goals.
8. To enrich human capability, confidence, morale, attitude and relationship.
9. To pay respect to humanity and create a happy bright workplace.
10. To satisfy the human needs of recognition and self development.
Kaizan
Kaizen means change (Kai) to become good (Zen). In other words, it means
continuous improvement. In fact, continuous improvement is required in all activities
of the organization such as:
 Productivity improvement
 New product development
 Labor management relation
 Total productive maintenance
 Just in time production & delivery system
 Customer orientation etc.
The various activities of an organization where continuous improvement is required is
presented under the kaizen umbrells. This continuous improvement in all areas are
taken through small step by step process. Because various behavioural, cultural and
philosophical changes are better brought about through small step by step
improvement than through radical changes.

Lecture notes of production & operation management

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