Link labs 2G 3G CDMA transition webinar slides

Editor's Notes

• #3: In this webinar, I will discuss what to expect from the end-of-life of several cellular technologies, how companies can avoid being caught without a transition plan, and how business and product leaders can leverage this potential disruption as an opportunity to build a new Internet of Things (IoT) strategy. Topics I will cover include: 5-10 minutes When are the networks going away? What does this mean for your existing devices? What are the costs and benefits of migrating to a new technology? What new technologies should I be considering? Which is right for my application(s)? What is this transition going to cost me? How can I use this to re-think our IoT product strategy?
• #5: Based in Annapolis, Maryland, Link Labs is a leading innovator in low­ power, wide-­area network technologies that power the Internet of Things (IoT). Link Labs powers a range of IoT applications across many industries, including smart cities, agriculture, building controls, automotive, healthcare, government, defense, retail, and utilities. In addition to our OEM business, or Professional Services team excels in helping customers take a concept from initial hardware design all the way through the delivery of a commercial product. Key strengths - low power, data optimization, complete system design, professional services A Diverse Array of Industries and Applications - Animals of all kinds Environment in all respects Public services of every type (smart city) Equipment for any use Assets large and small
• #6: GSM started in early 90s and introduced data service via cellular Digital signaling and data, SMS, MMS GPRS / EDGE brought on packet-switched domains (in addition to circuit switched domains). EDGE is GPRS w/ faster data rates. Used by ATT/TMO CDMA is less popular – in US, Sprint, Verizon, and US cellular, though Verizon is phasing out Both EDGE and 1xRTT launched in early 2000s ____ First 3G networks were in early 2000s – NTT DoCoMo - UMTS (W-CDMA) SK Telecom, Verizon – 1xEV-DO AT&T/(Cingular)/TMO uses UMTS/HSPA+ Verizon/Sprint/US Cellular use CDMA2000 UMTS is W-CDMA, but not to be confused with CDMA2000, which is more commonly referred to as CDMA UMTS required carriers to put up new basestations if they had GPRS or EDGE previously and required new frequency allocations CDMA 2G/3G all went up around the same time Technically standard LTE is a 3G technology with LTE-A being “true” 4G _______ 4G system does not support traditional circuit-switched telephony service, but all-Internet Protocol (IP) based communication such as IP telephony. As seen below, the spread spectrum radio technology used in 3G systems, is abandoned in all 4G candidate systems and replaced by OFDMA multi-carrier transmission and other frequency-domain equalization (FDE) schemes, making it possible to transfer very high bit rates despite extensive multi-path radio propagation (echoes). The peak bit rate is further improved by smart antenna arrays for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communications. E-UTRA is the air interface of 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Long Term Evolution (LTE) upgrade path for mobile networks. It is an acronym for Evolved Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) Terrestrial Radio Access, also referred to as the 3GPP work item on LTE also known as the Evolved Universal Terrestrial Radio Access (E-UTRA) All US carriers have moved to the LTE track with Sprint abandoning WiMAX in 2016 that it got with its acquisition of Clearwire Speeds: https://www.tomsguide.com/us/best-mobile-network,review-2942.html
• #7: *Revision 11 of the 3GPP states that HSPA+ is expected to have a throughput capacity of 672 Mbit/s. LTE Cat-5/6. LTE-A expected to support speeds up to 1 Gbps WiMAX - low mobility users can aggregate multiple channels to get a download throughput of up to 1 Gbps **Different levels of maturity. Verizon has most widely deployed “true” LTE network, TMO #2, AT&T #3, Sprint #4
• #8: 2G AT&T – End of 2016 (actually Early 2017) Verizon – End of 2019 Sprint – At least 2021 T-Mobile – At least 2020 Verizon and AT&T began hinting at this at the beginning of the ‘teens, and TMO made some noise trying to pull 2G customers away at the time https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/verizon-to-shut-down-2g-cdma-1x-network-by-end-2019 https://connectedworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Whitepaper_RacoWireless_TheSunsetof2G.pdf http://povertymobile.com/att_2g_sunset/ https://www.slashgear.com/t-mobile-takes-a-swing-at-att-says-its-2g-network-will-stay-active-through-2020-14456049/ https://www.pcmag.com/news/352024/t-mobile-wants-to-turn-off-2g-and-3g-but-not-quite-yet 3G AT&T – 2021 Verizon – End of 2019 Sprint - ? T-Mobile – End of 2020 (estimated) CDMA sunset includes 1xEV-DO As of June 2017, new 3G devices have not been permitted to enter the AT&T certification lab. http://www.taoglas.com/portfolio/3g-sunset/
• #9: AT&T – End of 2016 (actually Early 2017) Verizon – End of 2019 Sprint – At least 2021 T-Mobile – At least 2020 Verizon and AT&T began hinting at this at the beginning of the ‘teens, and TMO made some noise trying to pull 2G customers away at the time https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/verizon-to-shut-down-2g-cdma-1x-network-by-end-2019 https://connectedworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Whitepaper_RacoWireless_TheSunsetof2G.pdf http://povertymobile.com/att_2g_sunset/ https://www.slashgear.com/t-mobile-takes-a-swing-at-att-says-its-2g-network-will-stay-active-through-2020-14456049/ https://www.pcmag.com/news/352024/t-mobile-wants-to-turn-off-2g-and-3g-but-not-quite-yet We’ll see how Sprint’s dates shift when VoLTE is fully deployed (since CDMA is important for Voice) or if anything actually happens with when of the many-rumored Sprint mergers In practicality, you won’t be able to activate new devices well before these dates to ensure a gradual phaseout
• #10: If you are a considering a new product, 4G LTE is the only choice. You can’t even certify 2G/3G devices on VZW/ATT If you have a fielded device (especially 3G with fuzzier sunset dates), look at your contracts and subtract 2-3 years from any guaranteed sunset dates to begin your transition. If you have a 2G device fielded and you don’t have a plan you need to start NOW Remember that services will degrade prior to the sunset Industries that extracted the most value from early M2M/IoT are the most impacted Industries most impacted – Security, Fleet telematics, Vending Ironically, the most forward-looking companies from the 90s and 2000s are the most at risk today What about 5G? – If you have a business case, don’t wait. Handsets in early 2020s, IoT by mid-2020s. Other considerations: HW constraints Expanding your use cases (Battery powered?) Re-architecting back end If your business strategy is to milk the asset fine, but you should be concerned about customer retention as your competitors move forward If you are trying to expand your IoT portfolio and GTM, you need to run a full product development process, which is why you need to start now. Beginning the transition early gives you more optionality as hard deadlines approach Most module vendors have moved to a single footprint (or family of footprints) as well as interfaces to make HW designs easier. Allows you to move to various categories of LTE depending on use case, or begin development and transition more easily as things change
• #11: Must choose LTE Like everything in this industry, it depends! Don’t wait for 5G! 4G supported through at least end of 2020s, even with 5G
• #12: Since it’s been a while… Depending on when you built your device you may not have had to worry about this
• #13: Most module vendors have moved to a single footprint (or family of footprints) as well as interfaces to make HW designs easier. Allows you to move to various categories of LTE depending on use case, or begin development and transition more easily as things change Lot’s of similarities and differences. Happy to discuss this one-on-one
• #14: 2017 State of LTE Report - http://opensignal.com/reports/2017/11/state-of-lte Address China – 2016 report had 73% coverage. 2017 report did not cover china. mix of technologies
• #15: Cat 0 requires full 20 MHz channel, so not appealing to carriers or device manufacturers. M1=1.4 MHz, NB1=200 kHz Non-3PP technologies not listed – LoRa, Sigfox, etc Multiple DL channels (7-12) not listed Latency discussion
• #16: Considering moving to battery-powered devices Data constraints “LPWA wars” have basically shaken themselves out- 3GPP has won Must choose LTE Like everything in this industry, it depends! Don’t wait for 5G! 4G supported through at least end of 2020s, even with 5G
• #17: If you are trying to expand your IoT portfolio and GTM, you need to run a full product development process, which is why you need to start now. Main drivers: Design - $10K-millions. Typical is low six figures. Size and BOM optimization drive higher development costs and time Components – 50-hundreds Certification and testing – $10s of K to $100s of K. Similar considerations as design Cellular service - depends Managed services - depends
• #18: If you are trying to expand your IoT portfolio and GTM, you need to run a full product development process, which is why you need to start now. Main drivers: Design - $10K-millions. Typical is low six figures. Size and BOM optimization drive higher development costs and time Components Certification and testing Cellular service Managed services
• #19: Nice part is module cost has come down a lot in recent years Design - $10K-millions. Typical is low six figures. Size and BOM optimization drive higher development costs and time
• #20: Chip-down, vs. module, vs. “end-device certified” or “Network Ready” module Such devices are “pre-certified” because they go through more rigorous testing, have a defined interface with the network, and incorporate properly matched RF modules or chipsets, antenna connections and antennas. 
• #21: Many CDMA and 2G/3G plans were 5-50 MB for a few $/mo Some 2G/3G are even “all-you can-eat” since they are trying to maximize revenue on an existing asset that can’t get higher value usage right now Cat-M is $1-2/ MB
• #22: Depends on complexity. Discuss different pieces of stack. MNO-sponsored options like Jasper or MVNO options like Aeris, Kore , Sierra
• #23: Pre-certified (when available) Approved Cat-M SIM included Simplified software interface – wake and send Abstracted power saving operations Abstracted data efficiency Private APN IPSec Tunnel Managed service platform (ConductorTM) Open Cloud API (ConductorTM) FOTA
• #26: Benchmark – $5-10K On the other hand, undertaking an open-ended development process is a non-starter for many companies, especially if embedded software or connected devices is not their core competency. Many companies have the experience of going well over budget and over schedule with hardware/firmware projects. The intent of this scoping package is to remove uncertainty from the planning process, provide our customers a path to migrating their CDMA devices to the optimal LTE device and plan. Link Labs will research the customer’s application and create a system requirements document to which the prototype system will conform. These system requirements will then be formalized and documented in a design specification and include the complete list of customer technical requirements, derived requirements, and priorities that the device will need to support. Once a preliminary design specification is completed, Link Labs will then conduct a design review for the customer’s revisions and approval. As a part of this design specification, Link Labs will include estimated BOM costs at various volumes, device unit costs, battery life, and an a Good Faith Estimate on the non-recurring engineering development costs so the customer can make an informed business decision to proceed with the project. The deliverables of this package include: Product Design Specification Product Viability Assessment Estimated BOM and Unit costs at various volumes Estimated cellular data costs Estimated battery life Good Faith Estimate on future product development costs (including testing and evaluation) Good Faith Estimate on future certification costs The deliverables of this package are fully transferable and owned by the customer. Should the customer decide to move forward with a “Phase I - PCBA & Firmware Development Phase” with Link Labs, the initial scoping phase will be credited toward the larger project.