Loans and Debts and Data: Data Exploration Corner slides
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The document discusses whether the worst of the housing crisis is over. It notes some say conditions have improved but questions whether the data truly shows this or just that things are better than they were. The document then examines various housing and economic data measures over time to analyze trends, but notes there are limitations and quality issues with the available data that make definitive conclusions difficult. It questions whether different data sources like foreclosures, bankruptcies, and unemployment truly correlate and reflect the same trends. In the end, it concludes there are more open questions than answers about the housing market due to challenges with the underlying data.
Loans and Debts and Data: Data Exploration Corner slides
- 1. Loan Problems, Fannie Mae, et al Is the worst over? August 24, 2011 Mark R. Madsen http://ThirdNature.net Twitter: @markmadsen
- 2. Is the worst over? Some say it is. Did they look at the normal deviations in the time series or just say “it’s lower than it was”? Oh, yeah.
- 4. Some context: February 27, 2007: The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) announces that it will no longer buy the most risky subprime mortgages and mortgage-related securities. April 2, 2007: New Century Financial Corporation, a leading subprime mortgage lender, files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. June 1, 2007: Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Services downgrade over 100 bonds backed by second-lien subprime mortgages. And so it goes…
- 11. That was another data viz test Showing percentages of homes in foreclosure by county with a color scale on a map like that makes no sense. There’s no way to determine much that’s meaningful other than the darker counties being worse. And the color scale is broken: Florida peaks at 14.5% while Nevada peaks at 6.8%
- 18. Is there a relationship? Maps do not make comparisons of data easy. Besides which, we really want to know if unemployment and foreclosures are correlated.
- 19. Not really, but there is a pattern This analysis done by Emily Sciarillo at GeoCommons
- 20. What does it look like? This analysis done by Emily Sciarillo at GeoCommons
- 21. There are a lot more questions than answers We have lots of data quality problems in the government and financial sector data limiting our ability to do meaningful analysis. E.g. ▪ Much of the government data is estimates ▪ There are minimal data standards ▪ Agencies and organizations duplicate duplicate work ▪ Minimal history or time series ▪ Lack of detail underlying the aggregates making basic analysis beyond aggregate trends impossible.
- 22. Resources for data used: Event timeline for the mortgage mess – http://timeline.stlouisfed.org/pdf/CrisisTimeline.pdf – Datasets and mapping tools – www.geocommons.com NY federal reserve bank (data on debt and credit) – http://www.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/ Census data via their data retrieval tool (this link is housing data) – http://dataferrett.census.gov/datasets.html#ahs Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data – http://www.ffiec.gov/hmdaadwebreport/AggWelcome.aspx This presentation (and the rest of the talks) video/audio download: https://bloorgroup.webex.com/bloorgroup/lsr.php?AT=pb&SP=EC&rID=4166022&rKey=1dd657ec48 4da85e These slides also available at: http://www.slideshare.net/mrm0/ All the other FedSpend shows: http://www.insideanalysis.com/fedspend/
- 23. About the Presenter Mark Madsen is president of Third Nature, a technology research and consulting firm focused on business intelligence, analytics and performance management. Mark is an award-winning author, architect and former CTO whose work has been featured in numerous industry publications. During his career Mark received awards from the American Productivity & Quality Center, TDWI, Computerworld and the Smithsonian Institute. He is an international speaker, contributing editor at Intelligent Enterprise, and manages the open source channel at the Business Intelligence Network. For more information or to contact Mark, visit http://ThirdNature.net.
- 24. About Third Nature Third Nature is a research and consulting firm focused on new and emerging technology and practices in business intelligence, data integration and information management. If your question is related to BI, open source, web 2.0 or data integration then you‘re at the right place. Our goal is to help companies take advantage of information-driven management practices and applications. We offer education, consulting and research services to support business and IT organizations as well as technology vendors. We fill the gap between what the industry analyst firms cover and what IT needs. We specialize in product and technology analysis, so we look at emerging technologies and markets, evaluating the products rather than vendor market positions.