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Paul
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Swaim

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sr. Economist Employment Analysis
                                                                         Support labour demand                                                                                                                                       Speaker              and Policy Division

                                                    Provide the people without jobs >1 year                                                                                                                                                               OECD

                                                                             Need social protection                                                                                                                                                   Labour markets in the wake of the
                                                                             Government support                                                                                                                                                       "Great Recession".
                                                       Keep jobs                                                Important                                                                                                            Topic
                                                                             employers
                                                    Relocate job
                                             Buy-in unions to not to protected the system
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Denis
                                                              Total employment was changing                                                                                                                                                                             Pennel
                                                  Public employment services                                                                                                                        Masterclass                      Moderator
                                                           Retraining programs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Alexis van Dam
                                                   Improve skills unemployed                           Type of retooling/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mindmapper                    World of Minds
                                         Training program can't cope with                              reskilling
                                         large stream of attendees
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Important
                                  No clear answers                         Q: What is the impact analysis on the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Question
                                                                           measures taken by government
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mindmap              Summary of the masterclass
                                                                             Retraining                                                                                                                                                              contains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Legend                                  Questions asked by attendees
                                                                     Re-employment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Clockwise
                                                       Reinforce labour demand                                                                                                                                                                       Read mindmap
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 From top to bottom
                                        Resize jobs due to shorten work time
                                                                                                                                     Be ready to manage
                                                                       Job counseling
                                                                                                         What did
                                                                                                                                     a big recession
                                                         Unemployment benefits                                                                                                                                                                 International Confederation of Private
                                                                                                         governments do                                                                                                                        Employment Agencies,
                                             Saving jobs             Short time work
                                Sometimes it didn't                  program                                                                                                                                                                   Staffing industry
                                help that much                                                                                                                                                                                                 46 countries
                   USA didn't invest                Amount of budget spend to                                                                                                                                                                  10 million agency workers
                   much in system                   re-employ people varies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Working together with OECD
                                                                           Employment more volatile                                                                                               Start                           Impact of crisis
                                                                                 More temporary jobs                                                                                                                              Look forward
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Aim
                                                     Growth on temorary workers till 2007 high                                                                                                                                    Flexibility in market
                                                                                Since 2009 its recovery              Effects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Integovernment organisation
                                                                             Sack people
                                                                                                  Solution                                                                                                                                     Economisc issues by governments
                                                               Or cut down on hours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               EU USA, Asia, Australia
                                                           Well adapted to flexibilty
                                                                         Social dialogue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Labour markets
                                                                       Ideal mechanism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         New technologies
                                                               They need to keep up                     Social protection
                                                                                                        system                                                                                                                                           Flexibility
                                           Degree flexibilty vs social protection/                                                                                                                  Crisis            What's happening
                                           support systems
                                                 Generous social protection system                                                                                                                                                               New forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      OECD outlook               Dramatic change
                                                                                    Crisis in 2008 the worst since 1930's
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Banking crisis             Is the worst kind
                                                                          Forecast was less optimistic then the reality                                    Master class 4: Labour                                     In 2008 the situation
                                                       Spain: 21%                                                                                          markets in the wake of                                                                             Steep falll in trade
                                                                              Peaks in                                                                                                                                looked bad
                                                     Estonia: 20%             unemployment                                                                 the "Great Recession"
                                                      Ireland: 15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Economic crisis wasn't so deep
                                                              Turkey: 10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Overall            Taken into account large fall of GDP
                                                              Slovakia: 9%          Pre crisis                                                                                                                                                       Resilient
                                                                Spain: 8%                               Top3                                                                                                                                         Flexibility
                         High enemployment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Labour markets
                                                           Spain: 20% (same)                                                                                                                                                                         Take a long time to bounce back
                                                           Ireland: 15 (same)          Latest                                                                                                                                                          Unemployment                  1990 - 1995 increase from 3% to 18%
                             Is bouncing back                                                                                                                                                                                                          rate                          1995 - 2008 slow decrease to 6%
                                                           Estonia: 14% (-6%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008 increase to 9%
                                                                 Small effect                Netherlands                                                                                                                                               High
                                                                                                                                                                                                Labour
                                           Unemployment levels varies amongst EU countries                                                                                                                                                             unemployment
                                                                                                                                                                                                markets                                                                             Social benefit system: genereous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       due to
                                                                         A drop op 4% GDP is a bad recession                                                                                                                                                                        Social protection system

                                                                                                 Consequentions                                                                                                                   Example                                  Flexibility
                                                 Amount of hours worked dropped                                                                                                                                                                        Currently
                                                                                                 drop in GDP                                                                                                                      Finland                                  Unemployment services
                                                       Output per worker dropped
                                                         Employers went to great effort to keep workers
                                                                                                                               GDP                                                                                                                                        Bad recession           Bad for employment
                                                                     Cutting jobs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Lessons            Recovery of employment level takes
                                                                 Sharing work
                                                                                           Solutions Public Policy                                                                                                                                                        longer then the decline
                                                        Employers & Unions
                                                        worked together
                                                            Less experience
                                                                                                                                         What happend                                                                                                  Changed their system
                                                                                            Youth
                                                                                                                                         duringrecession                              See graph                                European                Became more resilient
                                                         Save more money                                                                                                                                                       countries               Different from USA
                                                               Stock market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Crisis was a good stress test
   Lay off during crisis at 57 now 60
                                                       Greying off working                   Older
              Issue for governments
                                                       population
            Retirement is expensive
                                                                                                                Who lost jobs?
              Public pension system

                                                             Layed off               Low skilled

                           Due to colapse in industry
                                                                       Men where hit harder
                                                                       then women
           Men are more likely to work in industry
                       Costly
                                         People >1year unemployed
                   Issolation                                                             Germany
                                          No high increase/ decrease
                                        Crisis
                                Immigrants            High increase due to
                      Lots of contruction
                                                                                             Spain
                                    Unemployment >12 months is 8%
                                                                                                               Unemployment
                                                      Increase productivity
                                                                                                               rate
                                        Smaller group that works harder
                                                   High increase due to crisis
                                         Unemployment >12 months is 3%                           Usa                                                                                                                                     When business conditions go bad
                       Services based economy                USA productivity                                                                                                                                                            Analyse the effect on flex work
                                                                     Variations in productivity                                                                                                                                                                     Temporarily export
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Q: is there a flex                                     market went bad
                                                                                                                                                                                                             worker security                 Germany                Kept skilled workforce
                                                                                                                                                                                                             index?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Look at productive workers
                                                                                                                                                                                    Questions                                                                                         Situation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Each country                  Based
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         needs specific                upon           Type of workforce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Work




2011-05-19 Ciett2011 World Employment Conference | LiveMindMapping by World of Minds, more info see: www.connectionofminds.com/ontmoet

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Masterclass04

  • 1. Paul Swaim Sr. Economist Employment Analysis Support labour demand Speaker and Policy Division Provide the people without jobs >1 year OECD Need social protection Labour markets in the wake of the Government support "Great Recession". Keep jobs Important Topic employers Relocate job Buy-in unions to not to protected the system Denis Total employment was changing Pennel Public employment services Masterclass Moderator Retraining programs Alexis van Dam Improve skills unemployed Type of retooling/ Mindmapper World of Minds Training program can't cope with reskilling large stream of attendees Important No clear answers Q: What is the impact analysis on the Question measures taken by government Mindmap Summary of the masterclass Retraining contains Legend Questions asked by attendees Re-employment Clockwise Reinforce labour demand Read mindmap From top to bottom Resize jobs due to shorten work time Be ready to manage Job counseling What did a big recession Unemployment benefits International Confederation of Private governments do Employment Agencies, Saving jobs Short time work Sometimes it didn't program Staffing industry help that much 46 countries USA didn't invest Amount of budget spend to 10 million agency workers much in system re-employ people varies Working together with OECD Employment more volatile Start Impact of crisis More temporary jobs Look forward Aim Growth on temorary workers till 2007 high Flexibility in market Since 2009 its recovery Effects Integovernment organisation Sack people Solution Economisc issues by governments Or cut down on hours EU USA, Asia, Australia Well adapted to flexibilty Social dialogue Labour markets Ideal mechanism New technologies They need to keep up Social protection system Flexibility Degree flexibilty vs social protection/ Crisis What's happening support systems Generous social protection system New forecast OECD outlook Dramatic change Crisis in 2008 the worst since 1930's Banking crisis Is the worst kind Forecast was less optimistic then the reality Master class 4: Labour In 2008 the situation Spain: 21% markets in the wake of Steep falll in trade Peaks in looked bad Estonia: 20% unemployment the "Great Recession" Ireland: 15% Economic crisis wasn't so deep Turkey: 10% Overall Taken into account large fall of GDP Slovakia: 9% Pre crisis Resilient Spain: 8% Top3 Flexibility High enemployment Labour markets Spain: 20% (same) Take a long time to bounce back Ireland: 15 (same) Latest Unemployment 1990 - 1995 increase from 3% to 18% Is bouncing back rate 1995 - 2008 slow decrease to 6% Estonia: 14% (-6%) 2008 increase to 9% Small effect Netherlands High Labour Unemployment levels varies amongst EU countries unemployment markets Social benefit system: genereous due to A drop op 4% GDP is a bad recession Social protection system Consequentions Example Flexibility Amount of hours worked dropped Currently drop in GDP Finland Unemployment services Output per worker dropped Employers went to great effort to keep workers GDP Bad recession Bad for employment Cutting jobs Lessons Recovery of employment level takes Sharing work Solutions Public Policy longer then the decline Employers & Unions worked together Less experience What happend Changed their system Youth duringrecession See graph European Became more resilient Save more money countries Different from USA Stock market Crisis was a good stress test Lay off during crisis at 57 now 60 Greying off working Older Issue for governments population Retirement is expensive Who lost jobs? Public pension system Layed off Low skilled Due to colapse in industry Men where hit harder then women Men are more likely to work in industry Costly People >1year unemployed Issolation Germany No high increase/ decrease Crisis Immigrants High increase due to Lots of contruction Spain Unemployment >12 months is 8% Unemployment Increase productivity rate Smaller group that works harder High increase due to crisis Unemployment >12 months is 3% Usa When business conditions go bad Services based economy USA productivity Analyse the effect on flex work Variations in productivity Temporarily export Q: is there a flex market went bad worker security Germany Kept skilled workforce index? Look at productive workers Questions Situation Each country Based needs specific upon Type of workforce measures Work 2011-05-19 Ciett2011 World Employment Conference | LiveMindMapping by World of Minds, more info see: www.connectionofminds.com/ontmoet