Methods of Forecasting for Capacity Management
3 likes2,935 views
The document discusses forecasting methods in capacity management, emphasizing the importance of accurate predictions regarding resource consumption and service levels. It outlines various forecasting techniques, such as trending and analytical modeling, and highlights the significance of data collection and validation for improving forecast accuracy. The paper stresses the need to understand the objectives of forecasting and ensure that appropriate data and assumptions are utilized for meaningful results.
Methods of Forecasting for Capacity Management
- 1. Methods of Forecasting for Capacity Management Dale Feiste dale.feiste@syncsort.com
- 2. Abstract Forecasting is the process of making statements about events in the future. Events related to capacity management are typically things like the state of resource consumption, service levels, and computing environment changes at future points in time. Making statements or predictions about these future events requires analysis of information to determine a future state. Knowing what information is needed to make accurate forecasts is a critical step for any analysis. Forecasts are made to answer questions. Understanding the questions, and things that affect answers to those questions, is the first step to creating an accurate forecast. Required accuracy of a forecast should determine which methods are used to create it. Assumptions can be made to limit the amount of data and time required for creating forecasts. Validating forecast accuracy, after events happen, is an important part of continually improving future forecasts, and building credibility. This paper describes the important task of forecasting as it relates to capacity management. 2
- 3. Agenda Why do we forecast? Forecasting scenarios Forecasting Techniques Forecasting and Virtualization Summary 3
- 4. FORECASTING – “THE PROCESS OF MAKING STATEMENTS ABOUT EVENTS IN THE FUTURE” 4
- 5. Why do we forecast? What are we trying to accomplish? Forecasting Objectives – Make business decisions – Resolve possible conflicts – Provide Efficiency – Balance Cost vs. Service 5
- 6. Forecasting Challenges Find the right balance 6
- 7. Forecasting Forecasting relies on – Proper technical and business data – Proper business information – Valid technical and business assumptions – Ability to compare past activity – Match needs and cost 7
- 8. Forecasting Scenarios Types of scenarios – Near term – 3 to 12 months – Long term – 1 to 3 years – Environment changes • Down sizing Infrastructure • Right sizing Infrastructure • IT mergers and acquisitions 8
- 9. Forecasting – Where do we get the data? Data collected from various tools Past forecasts Business users and owners – May want to help – May say “You’re the capacity team, you figure it out” 9
- 10. Forecasting Techniques Simple Charts Trending Analytical Modeling Simulation Modeling 10
- 11. Forecasting Techniques 11 MoreAccurate More Effort Benchmarking SimulationMeasurement And Analytical Modeling Trending Charts
- 12. Headroom 12
- 13. Trending Provide prediction based upon an interval of time Quick to produce Usually looking at one metric Can show steps in growth changes Confidence is based on length of interval and amount of historical data 13
- 14. Trend Types Normal Trend Step Trend Average vs. Peak Trend 14
- 15. Normal Trend 15
- 16. Step Trend 16
- 17. Average vs. Peak Trend 17
- 18. Analytical Modeling The ability to predict environment changes based upon the arrival of work – CPU – IO Based upon – Baseline timeframe – Calibration of model – Does it match real life? – What-If changes to model Spend virtual $’s Low cost modeling technique 18
- 21. Simulation Modeling Replication of environment Has to stay close to production environment Usage of tools to replicate workload into simulated environment Longer lead time to setup Provides granular detail on environment changes Can be costly 21
- 22. Forecasting and Virtualization Compact environment into smaller footprint Reducing IT costs How much more can I fit, i.e. how much headroom do I have? 22
- 23. The Correct Technique? What is the end-user expecting? Which technique gives you the best result for the question asked? How much time do you have to produce a result? 23
- 24. Summary Understand what the forecast is to accomplish What do enterprise standards dictate? Ensure you have as much business and technical information as possible Trend when trends make sense Repeatable process Document process and assumptions 24
- 25. Questions 25
- 26. THANK YOU