Mullan oecd adaptation workshop introduction
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This document summarizes an expert workshop on adaptation that took place on June 18/19, 2014. The majority of OECD countries have developed national adaptation strategies or plans. At the workshop, participants discussed tools and methods used for adaptation planning and prioritization, including expert judgement, stakeholder engagement, cost-benefit analysis, and multi-criteria analysis. Challenges in adaptation planning include long time horizons, uncertainty, and data availability. The workshop aimed to discuss best practices and help countries prioritize adaptation measures.
Mullan oecd adaptation workshop introduction
- 1. EXPERT WORKSHOP ON ADAPTATION: JUNE 18/19, 2014 Michael Mullan
- 2. • Majority of OECD countries have developed adaptation strategies / plans 2 Workshop purpose
- 3. Source: OECD Survey; n.b. 22/34 OECD countries have developed adaptation strategies to date 3 Status of adaptation strategies 13 13 13 8 9 2 1 Adaptation strategy / Plan Identification of specific policy measures to support adaptation Prioritisation of policy measures Timetables for the implementation of adaptation measures
- 4. What evidence influenced the choice of measures? • Expert judgement and involvement of stakeholders are the most widely used techniques for prioritisation • Limited uptake of cost-benefit / cost-effectiveness tools 2 4 7 3 13 13 Cost-benefit analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis Multi-criteria analysis Uncertainty based approaches Expert judgement Stakeholder engagement/consultation Countries may have multiple responses
- 5. Source: Survey results 5 Most countries have developed tools to support policy mainstreaming Yes, 13 In progress, 2 No, 4
- 6. 6 Mainstreaming adaptation into policy-making and project appraisal Adaptation project appraisal • Examples of innovative and sophisticated treatment of uncertainty – e.g. TE210 • Focus of existing efforts to date. Adapting policy and project appraisal • First initiatives: “green” CBAs (UK), regulatory impact assessments for regulations (Austria); • Need for pragmatism, balancing rigour with accessibility; • Compatibility with existing systems.
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- 8. Chapter 1 – The role of economic analysis in supporting adaptation Chapter 2 – Adaptation costs and benefits from a global and regional perspective Chapter 3 – Prioritising adaptation at the national level Chapter 4 – Mainstreaming adaptation into decision-making Chapter 5 – Measuring success 8 Proposed chapter outlines
- 9. Challenges: complexity of adaptation planning methodological: long time-horizons, uncertainty, deficiencies in quantification of costs and benefits of adaptation, lack of a common metric practical: uneven data availability Methodologies: climate impact assessments, CBAs, NAPAs, … Documentation & assessment What can be learnt from the studies conducted to date? Strengths and limitations of different approaches and examples of best practice 9 Prioritisation of government intervention at the national level
- 10. Source: UK CCRA final report (2012) 10 Prioritisation of government intervention at the national level E.g. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Review of 700 potential climate impacts Detailed analyses for 100 risks in 11 sectors Updated every 5 years Economics of Climate Resilience project to support prioritisation through identification of scale of costs and benefits
- 11. • M&E currently behind planning & implementation Implementation is at an early stage, but growing body of practice to draw upon • Framework for M&E in adaptation will help to assess progress in adaptation by business, government and communities provide public decision-makers with a body of information monitor changes in vulnerability to climate risks through the compilation of quantitative data on trends facilitate mid-term adjustments 11 Measuring success
- 12. 12 Outputs and timeline 2013 2014 SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Evidence gathering Paper sent to WPCID ∗ Analysis Policy Forum ∗ Finalisation Draft Chapter Review (WPCID) ∗ Launch of final report & policy paper ∗
- 13. 13 Next steps: input sought and priorities Input requested Any questions or clarification? • Case studies sought for national planning, and examples of mainstreaming into policy appraisal • Creation of informal “contact group” on adaptation • Participation and funding for forthcoming workshop Michael.mullan@oecd.org
- 14. EXTRA Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from OECD Countries 14
- 15. “assist OECD and emerging economies in prioritising measures for adaptation planning, appraising adaptation measures and, following implementation, on monitoring and evaluation” 15 … with different approaches required to answer different questions Source: ENV/EPOC/WPCID(2013)3 Policy question: Techniques Examples What are the global investment needs for adapting to climate change (in developing countries)? I&FF, Sectoral models World Bank (2006, 2010), UNFCCC(2007) What are the global costs of failing to mitigate / adapt to climate change? IAMs, Impact Assessments AD-DICE / AD- RICE, CIRCLE What are the adaptation priorities at the national level? MCA, CBA, CGE UK ECR, DELTA study, NAPAs How can investment decisions be climate-proofed? CEA, CBA, ROA, RDM UKCIP, “Green Book”