NPV is net present value of document.ppt

Net Present Value And
Other Investment Criteria
Chapter 8

2
Topics
1. First Look at Capital Budgeting
2. Investment Criteria:
1. Net Present Value √
2. Payback Rule ≈
3. Accounting Rates Of Return ≈
4. Internal Rate Of Return ≈
5. The Profitability Index ≈

3
Financial Management
 Goal Of Financial Management:
 Increasing the value of the equity
 Capital Budgeting:
 Acquire long-term assets
 Because long-term assets:
 Determine the nature of the firm
 Are hard decisions to reverse
 They are the most important decisions for the
financial manager
 Selecting Assets
 Whish assets to invest in?
 There are many options.
 Which do we pick?

4
Good Decision Criteria For
Capital Budgeting
 We need to ask ourselves the
following questions when evaluating
decision criteria
 Does the decision rule adjust for the
time value of money?
 Does the decision rule adjust for risk?
 Does the decision rule provide
information on whether we are creating
value for the firm?

Net Present Value = NPV
 The difference between the market value and
it’s cost = Value Added.
 Example:
 Point of View = Asset Buyer
 If:
 Cost = -$200,000
 Market Value (Present Value Future Cash Flows) =
$201,036
 NPV = $201,036 - $200,000 = $1,036
 We examine a potential investment in light of its
likely effect on the price of the firm’s shares
 NPV/(# of shares outstanding)
5

6
NPV
 If there is a market for assets similar
to the one we are considering investing
in, we use that market and our
decision making is simplified
 When we cannot observe a market
price for at least a roughly comparable
investment, capital budgeting is made
difficult… then we use:
Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation (DCF) to get our NPV
 DCF gives us an estimate of market value.

Synonyms
Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation (DCF)
Net Present Value (NPV)
7

Synonyms
Investment = Project =
Asset
8

9
Rules for DCF or NPV
1. The first step is to estimate the
expected future cash flows (Chapter 9)
2. The second step is to estimate the
required return for projects
(investments) of this risk level
(Chapter 10, 11)
3. The third step is to find the present
value of the cash flows and
subtract the initial investment
(Chapter 8)

10
t
1 2
0 2
0
1
2
CF
CF CF
NPV = CF + + +...
i i i
1+ 1+ 1+
n n n
= Initial Cost
= CF period 1
= CF period 2
= CF period t
t = Total peiods = n*x
= Annual Rate
n = Compounding periods per yea
t
t
CF
CF
CF
CF
i
     
     
     
r
i
= Period interest rate
n
i
= for this book usually annual rate
n
Net
Present
Value
(NPV)
=
Discounted
Cash
Flow
Valuation
(DCF)
Discount Rate = Market Rate = Required Rate Of Return = RRR
Period Discount Rate

NPV/DCF Example 1 & 2:
 Should you invest in a short term project
that will cost us $200,000 to launch and
will yield these cash flows (Required Rate
of Return= 15%):
11
Cash Flow 0 (Cost) -$200,000.00
Cash Flow 1 $100,000.00
Cash Flow 2 $90,000.00
Cash Flow 3 $70,000.00

NPV/DCF Method Used In Earlier
Chapters
Example 1:
12

NPV Excel Function & Formula
NPV Function:
=NPV(rate,value1,value2…)
⃰ rate = Period RRR (Discount) = i/n.
⃰ value1 = Range of cells with cash flows.
⃰ Cash flows must happen at the end of each
period.
⃰ Cash flows start at time 1.
⃰ Never include cash flows at time 0 (zero).
⃰ Cash flows do not have to be equal in amount.
⃰ Time between each cash flow must be the same.
NPV Formula when cost is at time 0:
=NPV(rate,value1,value2…) - Cost
13

NPV/DCF Method Used This Chapter
Example 2:
14

15
Net Present Value (NPV) =
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF)
 The process of valuing an
investment (project) by discounting
its future cash flows
 Decision Rule:
 NPV > 0  Accept Project
 NPV < 0  Reject Project
 NPV = 0  Indifferent (RRR = IRR)
Create
value for
stockholder
Search for
capital budget
projects
That yield
positive NPV
value added
There are no
guarantees that
our estimates
are correct

Profile
of
NPV
at
Different
Rates
17
Annual RRR (Discount) + NPV: Accept
5% 29,576
6% 27,070
7% 24,647
8% 22,303
9% 20,035
10% 17,840
11% 15,714
12% 13,654
13% 11,658
14% 9,723
15% 7,847
16% 6,027
17% 4,260
18% 2,545
19% 880
20% -738
21% -2,310
22% -3,838
23% -5,324

Profile of NPV at Different Rates
18

19
We Have Just Talked About NPV
 Investment Criteria:
1. Net Present Value √
2. Payback Rule ≈
3. Accounting Rates Of Return ≈
4. Internal Rate Of Return ≈
5. The Profitability Index ≈
 Let’s look at one example and
compare all these methods

20
Data For Example 4
 You are looking at a new project and you
have estimated these numbers:
CF0 -160,000.00
CF1 60,000.00
CF2 70,000.00
CF3 90,000.00
Net Income 1 13,000.00
Your required return for
assets of this risk 15%
Average Book Value 90,000.00

Example 4:
Computing NPV for The Project:
21

22
Advantages of NPV Rule
 Rule adjusts for the time value of
money
 Rule adjusts for risk (RRR - Discount Rate)
 Rule provides information on
whether we are creating value for
the firm

23
Payback Rule
 Payback Period
 The amount of time required for an investment to
generate cash flows to recover its initial costs
 Computation
 Estimate the cash flows
 Determine # of years Required to get “paid back”.
 Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost
until the initial investment has been recovered
Accept
Investment
Payback
Period
Pre-specified
# of
Years
<

24
Data For Example 5
CF0 -160,000.00
CF1 60,000.00
CF2 70,000.00
CF3 90,000.00

25
Example 5:
Computing Payback For The Project
 Assume we will accept the project if it pays
back within two years.
 Year 1: 160,000 – 60,000 = 100,00 still to
recover
 Year 2: 100,000 – 70,000 = 30,000 still to
recover
 Do we accept or reject the project?
 Reject. The project did not pay back
within 2 years.

27
Decision Criteria Test - Payback
 Does the payback rule account for
the time value of money?
 Does the payback rule account for
the risk of the cash flows?
 Does the payback rule provide an
indication about the increase in
value?
 Should we consider the payback rule
for our primary decision criteria?

28
Advantages & Disadvantages of Payback
 Advantages
 Easy to understand
 Cost to do this analysis
is minimal – good for
small investment
decisions
 Adjusts for uncertainty
of later cash flows
(gets rid of them)
 Biased towards liquidity
(tends to favor
investments that free
up cash for other uses
more quickly)
 Disadvantages
 Ignores the time value of money
 Fails to consider risk differences
 Risky or very risky projects are
treated the same
 Requires an arbitrary cutoff
point
 Ignores cash flows beyond the
cutoff date
 Biased against long-term
projects, such as research and
development, and new projects
 Does not guarantee a single
answer
 Does not ask the right question:
Does it increase equity value?
 You have to estimate the cash
flows any way, so why not take
the extra time to calculate NPV?

Problems with Payback Rule:
29
Years Required to Pay Back Investment = 2
Year Pro A Pro B Pro C
0 -$250 $250 -$250
1 100 100 100
2 100 100 200
3 -250 100
4 250 100
Accept or Reject?
Yes, but is it year 2
or 4?
No. Because only
$200 by year 2.
Yes. Because $300
Cash In by year 2.
Problems: We get 2 answers
Ignores cash flows
after year 2.
This project has a
negative NPV -
ignores time value
of $.
NPV = $535.50 -$11.81
Required Return: 0.15

30
Average Accounting Return = AAR
 There are many different definitions for
Average Accounting Return.
 Here is one:
 Here is another:
 Calculate (Return On Assets = ROA) for
each year and then average the ROAs.
Average Net Income
Average Book Value
= AAR

Average Accounting Return = AAR
 Steps in calculating AAR:
1. Estimate All Revenue and Expenses over
the life of the asset.
2. Calculate the Net Income for each year.
3. Estimate Book Value over life of asset.
 Note that the average book value depends on
how the asset is depreciated.
4. Decide on target cutoff AAR rate
5. Decision Rule:
Accept the project if the calculated
AAR > cutoff AAR rate.
31

32
Average Book Value =
 When Straight Line Depreciation is
used:
(Cost + Salvage)/2
 When a Non- Straight Line
Depreciation is used:
(BV0 + BV1 +…BVt)/(t+1)

33
Data For Example 6
CF0 -160,000.00
CF1 60,000.00
CF2 70,000.00
CF3 90,000.00

34
Computing
AAR
For
The
Project
Example
6:
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Revenue $80,000 $70,000 $65,000
Expenses (including
Depreciation and Tax) $67,000 $45,000 $45,000
Net Income $13,000 $25,000 $20,000
Average Net Income $19,333 =AVERAGE(B4:D4)
Original Cost $180,000
Salvage $0
Years 3
Striaght Line Deprectaion $60,000 =(B8-B9)/B10
Time 0 Time 1 Time 2 Time 3
Book Value = Historical
Cost - Accumulated
Depreication $180,000 $120,000 $60,000 $0
Average Book Value $90,000 =AVERAGE(B14:E14)
Average Book Value $90,000 =B8/2
AAR 0.214814815 =B6/B17
Target AAR 0.25
Decision: Reject Project

35
Decision Criteria Test - AAR
 Does the AAR rule account for the
 Does the AAR rule account for the
risk of the cash flows?
 Does the AAR rule provide an
value?
 Should we consider the AAR rule for
our primary decision criteria?

36
Advantages and Disadvantages of
AAR
 Advantages
 Easy to calculate
 Needed
information will
usually be
available
 Disadvantages
 Not a true rate of
return; time value of
money is ignored
 Uses an arbitrary
benchmark cutoff rate
 Based on accounting
net income and book
values, not cash flows
and market values

Solve For Rate
 Remember:
 Chapter 5 (Annuities and Multiple Cash Flows)
 Chapter 6 (Bonds)
 We learned that we can solve for rate.
 For Annuities or Bonds we were able to look at
cash flows and determine the rate.
 Chapter 8 (Multiple Cash Flows for Buying Assets)
 Just as YTM was “internal rate” of cash flows for
bonds, IRR will be “internal rate” of cash flows
for capital budgeting.
 We solve for the rate at which the NPV is zero
and that becomes the hurdle rate between +
NPV and – NPV. 38

IRR = Internal Rate of Return
 To Understand What IRR means, build a NPV Profile and
look for the rate at which NPV = $0
 This tells you the rate of return for the cash flows from the
project.
Project Cash Flows
CF0 -160,000.00
CF1 60,000.00
CF2 70,000.00
CF3 90,000.00
Required Rate Return 0.15
RRR NPV
14.00% 7,241.74
14.50% 5,750.17
15.00% 4,280.43
15.50% 2,832.09
16.00% 1,404.73
16.50% 0.00
17.00% -1,386.63
17.50% -2,753.47
18.00% -4,100.89
18.50% -5,429.27
19.00% -6,738.96
0)
39

IRR = Internal Rate of Return
IRR = Rate at Which NPV = $0
40
All RRR below
IRR, add value
(+NPV)
All RRR above
IRR, subtract
value (-NPV)
0)

41
IRR = Internal Rate of Return =“Break Even Rate”
 Definition: Rate that makes the NPV = $0
 Decision Rule:
 Most important alternative to NPV.
 It is often used in practice and is intuitively appealing.
 Calculation based entirely on the estimated cash flows
and is independent of interest rates found elsewhere
 Formula inputs are cash flows only!
Accept
Investment
IRR RRR
>

IRR Excel Function
IRR Function:
=IRR(values,guess)
⃰ values = range of cells with cash flows. Cash out is
negative, cash in is positive. Range of values must contain
at least one positive and one negative value.
⃰ Guess is not required. But if you get a #NUM! error, try
different guesses – ones you think might be close.
⃰ Cash flows must happen at the end of each period.
⃰ Cash flows start at time 0.
⃰ Cash flows do not have to be equal in amount.
⃰ Time between each cash flow must be the same.
⃰ IRR gives you the period rate. If you give it annual cash
flows, it gives you annual rate, if you give it monthly cash
flows, it gives you monthly rate.
⃰ **Don’t use IRR for investments that have non-conventional cash flows (cash flow
other than time 0 is negative) or the investments are mutually exclusive alternatives
and initial cash flows are substantially different or timing are substantially different.
42

43
Data For Example 7
CF0 -160,000.00
CF1 60,000.00
CF2 70,000.00
CF3 90,000.00

44
Computing IRR For The Project
Example 7:
 Formula Inputs
are cash flows
– that’s it!
 If you do not
have Excel or a
financial
calculator, then
this becomes a
trial and error
process.

Trial And Error Process: Build Profile And
“Zero In On” the IRR.
45
Project Cash Flows
CF0 -1,000.00
CF1 1,200.00
Solve for directly when
exponent is 4 or less (But no
need to).
NPV = -CF0 + CF1/(1+IRR)
0 = -1,000 + 1,200/(1+IRR)
1,000 = 1,200/(1+IRR)
1 + IRR = 1,200/1,000
IRR = 1,200/1,000 -1
IRR = 0.2
Project Cash Flows
CF0 -160,000.00
CF1 60,000.00
CF2 70,000.00
CF3 90,000.00
Required Rate Return 0.15
Increment 0.005
RRR (Discount) + NPV
14.0% 7,241.74
14.5% 5,750.17
15.0% 4,280.43
15.5% 2,832.09
16.0% 1,404.73
16.5% -2.05
17.0% -1,388.65
17.5% -2,755.46
18.0% -4,102.85
18.5% -5,431.20

46
Decision Criteria Test - IRR
 Does the IRR rule account for the
 Does the IRR rule account for the
risk of the cash flows?
 Does the IRR rule provide an
value?
 Should we consider the IRR rule for
our primary decision criteria?
 No! Because of two circumstances…

47
Advantages of IRR
 Knowing a return is intuitively appealing.
 It is a simple way to communicate the
value of a project to someone who
doesn’t know all the estimation details.
 If the IRR is high enough, you may not
need to estimate a required return, which
is often a difficult task.
 In the working world, many people use
IRR.

48
Summary of Decisions For The
Project
Summary
Net Present Value Accept
Payback Period Reject
Average Accounting Return Reject
Internal Rate of Return Accept

Define
Mutually Exclusive
 A situation were
taking one project
prevents you from
taking another
project.
 Ex: With the land,
you can build a farm
or a factory, not
both.
 Not Both.
Independent
 Taking one project does
not affect the taking of
another project.
 Ex: If you buy machine A,
you can also buy machine
B, or not.
 Ex: Cash flows from
Project A do not affect
cash flows for Project B.
 Projects that are Not
Mutually Exclusive are
said to be Independent.
49

50
NPV & IRR
 NPV and IRR will generally give us the same
decision if:
 Conventional Cash Flows =
 Cash flow time 0 is negative.
 Remaining cash flows are positive.
 Projects (investments) Are Independent:
 The decision to accept/reject this project does not
affect the decision to accept/reject any other project.
 Independent = “not mutually exclusive”.
OK to use
IRR or NPV
Both give
same
answer.

51
DO NOT Use IRR, Instead Use NPV
 DO NOT use IRR for projects that have
non-conventional cash flows
 DO NOT use IRR for projects that are
mutually exclusive.
NOT OK to use IRR
Use NPV instead

52
IRR and Nonconventional Cash
Flows
 When the cash flows change sign more
than once, there is more than one IRR
 When you solve for IRR you are solving
for the root of an equation and when you
cross the x-axis more than once, there
will be more than one return that solves
the equation
 If you have more than one IRR, which
one do you use to make your decision?

Example
8:
Non-conventional
Cash
Flows:
You
Will
Get
Two
Answers.
Which
Is
Correct?
53

54
Summary of Decision Rules
 The NPV is positive at a required
return of 15%, so you should
Accept.
 If you use Excel, you would get an
IRR of 14% which would tell you to
Reject.
 You need to recognize that there are
non-conventional cash flows and use
NPV for decision rule.

55
IRR and Mutually Exclusive Projects
 So far we have only asked the question:
“Should we invest our $ in Project A?”
 But what if we ask: “Should we invest our $
in Project A or B?”
 Mutually exclusive projects
 If you choose one, you can’t choose the
other
 Example: You can choose Investment A
or B, but not both.

56
Example 9: Mutually Exclusive Projects
The required return
for both projects is
10%.
Which project
should you accept
and why?
Period Cash Flow A Cash Flow B
0 -5,500.0 -5,500.0
1 2,500.0 1,100.0
2 2,200.0 2,200.0
3 2,200.0 2,750.0
4 1,650.0 3,000.0

Example 9: NPV and IRR Can Give Different Answers.
For These Cash Flows, When RRR = 10%, We Get
Different Answers.
Total cash flows are
larger, but payback
more slowly, so
higher NPV at low
RRR
Mutually Exclusive Projects (Investements)
RRR 10%
0 -5,500.0 -5,500.0
1 2,500.0 1,100.0
2 2,200.0 2,200.0
3 2,200.0 2,750.0
4 1,650.0 3,000.0
IRR 0.2183 0.1986
NPV 1,370.8 1,433.3
At RRR = 10%, we use NPV as criteria and accept B.
57

Example 9: NPV and IRR
NPV Profile shows that NPV depends on RRR.
IRR is the same no matter what the RRR is.
Bigger cash flows in
early years means
they are less affected
by large RRR (cash
flows closer to time
zero are less affected
by discounting (less
time to compound))
Payback is quicker,
so higher NPV at
high RRR.
Mutually Exclusive Projects (Investements)
RRR 17%
0 -5,500.0 -5,500.0
1 2,500.0 1,100.0
2 2,200.0 2,200.0
3 2,200.0 2,750.0
4 1,650.0 3,000.0
IRR 0.2183 0.1986
NPV 498.0 365.3
At RRR = 17%, we use NPV as criteria and accept A. 58

NPV B > NPV A,
When Discount
Rate < 12%
Ranking conflict:
IRR & NPV give
different answers
NPV A > NPV B,
When Discount
Rate > 12%
No ranking conflict:
IRR and NPV
give same answer
Example 9: NPV Profile shows that
NPV depends on RRR.
ME – Don’t Use IRR, use NPV.
NPV B
NPV A
59

60
Conflicts Between NPV and IRR
 NPV directly measures the increase
in value to the firm
 Whenever there is a conflict
between NPV and another decision
rule, you should always use NPV
 IRR is unreliable in the following
situations
 Non-conventional cash flows
 Mutually exclusive projects

Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)
Example 10:
61

Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)
 3 different methods
 Controversial:
 Not one way to calculate MIRR (different results that with
large values and long time frames can lead to large
differences).
 Is it really a rate if it comes from modified cash flows?
 Why not just use NPV?
 If you use a discount rate to get modified cash flows, you
can not get a true IRR.
 Cash reinvested may be unrealistic because, who knows if
the rate that you are using for discounting is the same rate
that would be applied to a cash flow that might be used for
any number of things.
62

63
Profitability Index (Benefit Cost Ratio)
 PI Formula= PVFCF/Initial Cost
 PI > 1, accept project
 PI < 1, reject project
 Measures the benefit per unit cost, based on the
time value of money
 A profitability index of 1.1 implies that for every
$1 of investment, we create an additional $0.10
in value
 Use this PI Formula = PVFCF/Initial Cost – 1
 This measure can be very useful in situations
where we have limited capital (can’t do all
projects, then select greater PI)

65
Advantages and Disadvantages of
Profitability Index
 Advantages
 Closely related to
NPV, generally
leading to identical
decisions
 Easy to understand
and communicate
 May be useful
when available
investment funds
are limited
 Disadvantages
 May lead to
incorrect decisions
in comparisons of
mutually exclusive
investments
 Scale is not
revealed
 10/5 = 1000/500

66
Capital Budgeting In Practice
 We should consider several investment
criteria when making decisions
 NPV and IRR are the most commonly
used primary investment criteria
 Payback is a commonly used secondary
investment criteria
 Why so many? Because they are all only
estimates!
 The financial manager acts in the
stockholder’s best interest by identifying
and taking positive NPV projects

68
Quick Quiz
 Consider an investment that costs $150,000
and has a cash inflow of $38,500 every year
for 6 years and in 7th year the cash flow is
$2,000. The required return is 15% and
required payback is 3 years.
 What is the payback period?
 What is the NPV?
 What is the IRR?
 Should we accept the project?
 What decision rule should be the primary
decision method?
 When is the IRR rule unreliable?

Following slides are from Author.

Multiple IRRs
 Descartes Rule of Signs
 Polynomial of degree n→n roots
 When you solve for IRR you are solving for
the root of an equation
 One positive ?? real root per sign change
 Remaining are imaginary (i2 = -1)
0
)
IRR
1
(
CF
n
0
t
t
t





Two Reasons NPV Profiles Cross
 Size (scale) differences.
 Smaller project frees up funds sooner
for investment.
 The higher the opportunity cost, the
more valuable these funds, so high
discount rate favors small projects.
 Timing differences.
 Project with faster payback provides
more CF in early years for
reinvestment.
 If discount rate is high, early CF
especially good

Reinvestment Rate Assumption
 IRR assumes reinvestment at IRR
 NPV assumes reinvestment at the
firm’s weighted average cost of
capital (opportunity cost of capital)
 More realistic
 NPV method is best
 NPV should be used to choose
between mutually exclusive
projects

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