OBC | FuturICT – Global participatory computing for our complex world
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The document discusses the need for new science and technology to manage the complexities of our global world, highlighting the importance of understanding socially interacting systems and the risks posed by financial derivatives. It emphasizes the necessity of decentralized adaptive approaches and real-time data mining for effective management, along with innovative solutions to societal problems through socio-inspired information and communication technology (ICT). The text advocates for the creation of a global participatory platform to enhance collective awareness and resilience, ultimately aiming to turn knowledge into wisdom for better decision-making.
OBC | FuturICT – Global participatory computing for our complex world
- 1. Participatory Computing for Our Complex World Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich) New science and technology to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way
- 2. What It Means to Live in an Information Age § Global ICT = most complex artifact § Billions of interacting components § Many autonomous decisions § à Artificial social systems! § Example: Computer-based automated financial trading § Too much data § Too much speed § Too much complexity ICT is part of the problem, but also key to the solution! Need to understand socially interacting systems!
- 3. Alex (‚Sandy‘) Pentland of the MIT Media Lab Says: § Our financial, transportation, health system are broken § We need to develop a decentralized adaptive approach § Managing complexity requires real- time data mining The more complex our systems become, the more do we need a decentralized management concept based on facilitating favorable self- organization. This requires real-time data to allow for flexible, adaptive response.
- 4. Networking is Good … But Promotes Cascading Effects § We now have a global exchange of people, money, goods, information, ideas… § Globalization and technological change have created a strongly coupled and interdependent world Network infrastructures create pathways for disaster spreading! Need adaptive decoupling strategies.
- 5. Are Derivatives Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction? Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb' Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction " Warren Buffett The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy ..., legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned. The world's second-richest man made the comments in his famous and plain-spoken "annual letter to shareholders", excerpts of which have been published by Fortune magazine. The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks selling billions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or manage market risk. But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system. (BBC, 4 March, 2003)
- 6. The Flash Crash on May 6, 2010 600 billion dollars evaporated in 20 minutes The flash crash turned solid assets into penny stocks within minutes. Was an interaction effect, no criminal act, ‘fat finger’, or error.
- 7. Cascading Effects During Financial Crises Video by Frank Schweitzer et al.
- 8. Cascading Effect and Blackout in the European Power Grid Failure in the continental European electricity grid on November 4, 2006 EU project IRRIIS: E. Liuf (2007) Critical Infrastructure protection, R&D view
- 9. Revolutions: Another Cascading Effect ? ? The Arabic Blogosphere
- 10. Political Cascading Effects Transition from hierarchies to democracies (source: Jürgen Mimkes) hierarchy transition democracy W orl d GNP and f ertility G N P pe r p e r s on in US $ 35 .0 00 h iera rc hies 30 .0 00 tran sitio n 25 .0 00 d em oc ra cies 20 .0 00 tran sitio n lin e 15 .0 00 de m o c r ac i es 10 .0 00 5 .0 00 h i e ra r c h i es 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 fe rt i li t y f, c h i ld re n p e r w o m e n
- 11. Need New Science to Fill Knowledge Gaps For 30 years or so have we globalized our world and pushed for technological revolutions, but the global systems science to understand the resulting complex systems is lacking. 1. Science of systemic risks 2. Practically relevant theory of complex systems 3. New data science 4. Integrated systems design to manage complexity 5. Coevolution of ICT with society
- 12. Our Thinking Determines What We See …
- 13. …And What We Can’t See…! We need to overcome the limitations of our conventional thinking!
- 14. The Need to Look Behind What Our Senses Tell Us Geocentric Picture: Epicycles around the Earth Heliocentric Picture: Elliptical paths around the sun
- 15. Emergent Phenomena in Pedestrian Crowds At high densities, several people may compete for the same gap and block each other. This constitutes a conflict and causes intermittent outflows and a faster-is-slower effect. At low densities: At large self-organized lane formation, densities: like Adam Smith’s invisible hand coordination breaks down
- 16. Low Predictability Due to the" Sensitivity to Varying Model Parameters 360 340 Wet Bench in Semiconductor Production 320 300 280 260 DS 240 220 200 180 Chemical Water Chemical Water GC Chemical Water Dryer Park Positions Input, 160 Output 140 120 100 89 180 240 01-DHF critical ontime 01-ST_dhf 380460540620 300 360 420 02-QDR_1 03-SC_1 380460540620 300 360 420 04-QDR_2 06-SC_2 380 460540620 07-QDR_3 510 570 08-DMG Throughput TEST_1 TEST_2 TEST_3 Analyse software 266,8 255,9 246,1 Production machine 150,9 155,5 178,4 Difference in w/h 115,9 100,4 67,7
- 17. Paradoxical Slower-Is-Faster Effect in Chip Production Slower-is- faster effect Old recipe: New recipe: ca. 170/h ca. 230/h
- 18. Instability: John D. Sterman’s Beer Game Perturbations in demand amplify
- 19. As Coupling Gets Stronger, System Behavior Can Change Completely: Traffic Breakdowns Thanks to Yuki Sugiyama Capacity drop, when capacity is most needed! At high densities, free traffic flow is unstable: Despite best efforts, drivers fail to maintain speed
- 20. As Coupling Gets Stronger, System Behavior Can Change Completely: Crowd Disasters Love Parade Disaster in Duisburg, 2010 At low densities: self-organized lane formation, like Adam Smith’s invisible hand At large densities: coordination breaks down
- 21. Strongly Coupled and Complex System Behave Fundamentally Different 1. Faster dynamics 2. Increased frequency of extreme events – can have any size 3. Self-organization dominates system dynamics 4. Emergent and counterintuitive system behavior, unwanted feedback, cascade and side Change of perspective (from a effects component- to an interaction- 5. Predictability goes down oriented view) will reveal new solutions! 6. External control is difficult 7. Larger vulnerability Need a science of multi-level complex systems!
- 22. Instruments to Explore the World Connect web experiments with data mining and modelling tools to reach an acceleration of knowledge generation as in the Human Genome Project Hubble, Nasa
- 23. Build platforms to explore & interact What for? Turn knowledge into wisdom People What is? What if? Create systems Data provide data Models Develop models to sense & create new technology to simulate & understand predict Turn data into information Turn information into knowledge
- 24. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate & understand predict
- 25. The FuturICT Knowledge Accelerator Thanks to Michael Mäs Humanities Qualitative Quantitative Economics Sociology Sociology Crowd Computational Data Science Complexity Sourcing Social Science PNS Science GPP LES Integrating the best knowledge from the social, natural, and engineering sciences, particulary social sciences, complexity sciences, and ICT
- 26. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate & understand predict
- 27. Crowd-Sourcing 3D Environments See also Open Streetmap - the free Wiki world map
- 28. More Sustainability and Resilience through Collective, ICT-Enabled (Self-)Awareness 1. Goal: Measure the world’s state and ‘social footprint’ in real time, detect possible threats and opportunities 2. Use smartphones, social media, digital news sources, sensors… 3. Incentives to provide data 4. Control over own data 5. Privacy-respecting data mining Requires a ‘Planetary Nervous System’ Painting by Maurits Cornelis Escher to answer ‘what is’ questions and a Examples: Open streetmap, ‘Living Earth Simulator’ to answer earthquake sensing and warning ‘what if’ questions.
- 29. New Compasses for Decision-Makers Consider social capital: § Solidarity, cooperativeness, § compliance, § reputation, trust, GDP § attention, curiosity, § happiness, health, § environmental care… Goal: Create indices better than GDP/capita, considering health, Green = Happiest Blue environment, social Purple well-being, … Orange to promote Red = Least Happy sustainability Grey = Data not available Happiness
- 30. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate & understand predict
- 31. Building FuturICT’s Living Earth Simulator " Analysis of “What if …” Scenarios Data Models Forecasts demographic infection data contact network models transport + = data multi- scale geographic models ...complexity... data agent- based models scenario predictions § Integrate data and models analysis Validation § Scale them up to global scale § Make them more accurate priorities policies (thanks to Alex Vespignani) Possibilities are limited, but even short-term prediction can be useful, as weather forecasts or new traffic light controls show.
- 32. Modelling the global spread of H1N1," combining models of epidemiology and global travel data
- 33. Building FuturICT’s Living Earth Simulator § Integrate existing models (traffic, production, economic system, crowd behavior, social cooperation, social norms, social conflict, crime, war…) § Scale them up to global scale § Increase degree of detail, accuracy (statistical and sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation, identification of crucial and questionable modeling assumptions,…)
- 34. Managing Complexity: Is It a Lost Battle? § In a strongly varying world, strict stability and control is not possible anymore or excessively expensive § Example: Public spending deficits § Hierarchically organized structures have a critical size, beyond which they become unstable § Examples: Decay of Soviet Union; many failed mergers in the last decade (Daimler-Chrysler, BMW-Rover, Allianz-Dresdner Bank, …) § A paradigm shift towards flexible, agile, adaptive systems is needed, possible - and overdue! Boeing 747: Constructed for stable flight Su-47: Utilizes dynamic instability
- 35. How to Utilize Properties of Complex Systems?
- 36. Managing Complexity: Modifying Interactions Allows to Promote Favorable Self-Organization
- 37. Self-Control of Traffic Lights: Making More Out of Scarce Resources Smarter Cities Inspiration: Self-organized oscillations at bottlenecks Measurement input Optimal compromise between coordination and Licensing Opportunity local flexibility
- 38. Avoiding Crowd Disasters Flow Monitoring in 2007 Situation in 2006 § Avoiding crossing and counter-flows § Real-time flow monitoring Beneficial for all mode § Adaptive rerouting of transport and for the environment § Contingency plans October, 3rd, 2011 Resilient Flow Organization in 2007 STS Forum, 8th Annual Meeting, Kyoto 38
- 39. Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Future Scenarios ‘Business as Usual’ Clinton Parameters
- 40. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate & understand predict
- 41. An Open, Transparent Platform for Everyone § Goal: An open platform for everyone, overcome “black holes” for data and data fragmentation § Transparent data sources and quality, transparent algorithms, transparent results § Potentials: New services and jobs, less barriers for social, economic and political participation § Problem: A new public good, requiring mechanisms to avoid data pollution, manipulation, misuse, privacy intrusion, cybercrime § How to promote responsible use? § Need to develop a Trustable Web, a self-regulating information ecosystem
- 42. Decision-Making Support Debate Platforms & " Argument Maps
- 43. World of Modelling for Simulation App Developer Toolkit & Computational Modeling App Store, incl. Commercial Software/Services
- 44. Interactive Virtual Worlds for Exploration Multi-player serious online games " across diverse platforms
- 45. Interactive Virtual Worlds as Experimental Testbed For example different financial architectures, voting rules, transparency and privacy settings, etc.
- 46. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate & understand predict
- 47. Sparking Off Innovations by ‚Hilbert Programs‘ ??? + Funding
- 48. Socio-Inspired ICT Understanding the hidden laws and processes of society Development a new wave of robust, trustworthy and adaptive information systems based on socially inspired paradigms. Facebook is by now Fundamental transformational effect on ICT and one of the most Computer Science valuable companies in the world (65 billion $) 3. Socio-inspired, 1. Collective awareness bottom-up 2. Social adaptiveness self-organization
- 49. Coming Era of Socio-Inspired Innovations Understanding socially interactive systems facilitates socio-inspired ICT § Cooperation, Example: A ‘Trustable Web’, § adaptability and self-regulation, reputation-based and self- § conflict resolution, regulating, to keep § resilience, cybercrime low § trust, § reputation, § social norms, § values, ethics, and § culture Economic benefits! New solutions to societal problems!
- 50. Social Money Thanks to Frank Schweitzer and Dirk Brockmann Treat money as nodes in a money flow network rather than as a one- dimensional entity (scalar), give it multi-dimensionality, memory, history, reputation.
- 51. The Challenge of Innovation Every revolutionary idea seems to evoke three stages of reaction. They may be summed up by the phrases: 1- It's completely impossible. 2- It's possible, but it's not worth doing. 3- I said it was a good idea all along. Arthur C. Clarke The five stages of innovation People deny that the innovation is required. People deny that the innovation is effective. People deny that the innovation is important. People deny that the innovation will justify the effort required to adopt it. People accept and adopt the innovation, enjoy its benefits, attribute it to people other than the innovator, and deny the existence of stages 1 to 4. Inspired by Alexander von Humboldt's 'Three Stages Of Scientific Discovery'
- 52. Stop Searching Where the Light Is!
- 53. Thanks to all supporters!