Afternoon Panel: Designing Tomorrow’s Campus: Resiliency, Vulnerability, and Adaptation
- 1. M a r c h 2 , 2 0 1 5 1 A F T E R N O O N PA N E L
- 3. 06 Designing Tomorrow’s Campus Resiliency, Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change Anne Slinn (Moderator) Executive Director for Research, MIT Center for Global Change Science Anne has been helping to organize MIT’s interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, and international research on global change challenges for over 20 years. She is a current member of the MIT Conversation on Climate Change Committee. Kleinfelder Associates Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead Kleinfelder is a team of engineers, architects, and scientists based in Cambridge, MA. Kleinfelder is currently completing a Vulnerability Assessment for the City of Cambridge. James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr. Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture Bert Bland Associate VP & Director, Energy and Sustainability, Cornell University Bert leads the Energy and Sustainability office within Cornell's Facility Services Department, overseeing energy, sustainability, and utilities management for campus. Bert also leads the transformation of the campus to a living laboratory for sustainable practices in all campus operations. Jim is the Aga Khan Professor for the Department of Architecture. His research concentrates on sustainable water and landscape design in South Asia and the U.S. from the site to river basin scales.
- 4. 4 The Cambridge Context: Understanding Risks and Community Preparedness Designing Tomorrow’s Campus Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead Cambridge Vulnerability Assessment Kleinfelder Associates
- 5. City of Cambridge Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Preparedness Plan Massachusetts Institute of Technology SUSTAINABILITYCONNECT2015 March 2, 2015
- 6. • Current design criteria based on past events. • Past is no longer a reliable indicator of present or future conditions. • A science-based approach can help the city identify and understand vulnerabilities to changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level. How do you manage the uncertainty about future climate to plan & design effectively ? The Challenge
- 7. Priority- planning areas Project’s Framework Step 1 Climate Projections Scenario Development Step 2 Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Step 3 Preparedness Plan Low Medium High Very High LowMediumHigh Preparedness Plan ………………………..
- 8. MassDOT ADCIRC modeling Update on Sea Level Rise / Storm Surge • 2030s: Charles River Dam unlikely to be overtopped, unlikely impact on Cambridge • 2050-2070: Charles River Dam becoming more likely to be overtopped, likely impact of Cambridge • Preliminary findings: Modeling being finalized for 2070s Source: MassDOT/Woods Hole Group
- 9. Precipitation Projections Trends • Total annual precipitation will not change • Summer will be dryer and winter ‘wetter’ (more rain less snow) • Today’s 25 yr storm = 2070’s 10 yr storm • Today’s 100 yr storm = 2070’s 25 yr storm Flooding Scenarios 2030s & 2070s: 10 year (low) & 100 year (high) 24-hour design storms Precipitation Changes Baseline 2030s (2015-2044) 2070s (2055-2084)1971-2000 24-hr design storms Low: 10 yr (inches) 4.9 5.6 6.4 25 yr (inches) 6.2 7.3 8.2 High: 100 yr (inches) 8.9 10.2 11.7
- 10. Precipitation Projections Flooding Scenarios 2030s, 2070s: 10 year (low) and 100 year (high) 24-hour design storms
- 11. (8.9 inches over 24 hours) Inland Flooding – Present High Scenario Manhole flooding by MWH, Riverine flooding byVHB
- 12. (10.2 inches over 24 hours) Manhole flooding by MWH, Riverine flooding byVHB Inland Flooding – 2030s High Scenario
- 13. (11.7 inches over 24 hours) Inland Flooding – 2070s High Scenario Manhole flooding by MWH, Riverine flooding byVHB
- 14. Inland Flooding Scenario – 2070s HighInland Flooding – 2070s High Scenario
- 15. Temperature Projections Trends • Average annual temperature will be higher • By 2030s it is likely that days above 90oF will tripled • By 2070s it is likely that days above 90oF will increase six fold Heatwave Scenarios • 2030s: 4 consecutive days at 90oF (built) and 4 consecutive days heat index at 96oF (social) • 2070s: 5 consecutive days at 90oF, incl. 3 days at 100oF (built) and 5 consecutive days heat index at 100oF , incl. 3 days at 115oF (social) Temperature Changes Baseline 2030s (2015-2044) 2070s (2055-2084) 1971-2000 Lower Higher Lower Higher Days > 90o F (days/year) 11 29 31 47 68 Days > 100o F (days/year) <1 2 2 6 16 Heat Index (o F) 85 95 96 101 115
- 17. Heat Index - Present Conditions “Feels-like” temperature variability when ambient temperature is 83°F day (8/30/2010 at 11:15am)
- 18. Heat Index - 2030s Scenario for Social Environment “Feels-like” temperature variability on a day when heat index is 96°F (90oF with relative humidity 50 – 55%) 4 Consecutive Days With Heat Index At 96oF
- 19. Heat Index - 2070s Scenario for Social Environment 5 Consecutive Days With Heat Index At 100oF Including 3 Days With Heat Index At 115oF “Feels-like” temperature variability on a day when heat index is 115°F 110oF ~ (90oF with 60-65% RH) 115oF ~ (100oF with 45-50% RH)
- 20. Preliminary Key Findings • Heat vulnerability and inland flooding are more imminent − Extreme heat events are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration. − Precipitation driven flooding is likely to increase in frequency, extent, and depth. • Cambridge is unlikely to be impacted by sea level rise or storm surges by 2030, due to flood protection from both the Charles River and Amelia Earhart dams
- 21. Step 1 Climate Projections Scenario Step 2 Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Step 3 Preparedness Plan Step 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Priority- planning areas Preparedness Plan Low Medium High Very High LowMediumHigh
- 22. The Built Environment • Energy • Transportation • Water • Telecommunication • Critical Services • The Urban Forest The Social Environment • Public Health • Community Resources • Vulnerable Population • Economic Impact Identifying critical assets & resources
- 23. Lechmere Station MBTA Green Line Exposure >100°F Sensitivity High (S4) Adaptive Capacity High (AC2) Vulnerability Low (V2) Climate Projections Modeling & Mapping Exposure Assessing Vulnerability & Risk How The Vulnerability Assessment Was Conducted
- 24. Key Concepts Exposure: Direct contact with hazard (flood/heat) Vulnerability: function of asset Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity in relation to Exposure Risk: function of Probability of Occurrence and Consequence of Failure ICLEI - General Approach
- 25. Energy: Flood VulnerabilityRanking of assets Table 2b: Energy Infrastructure vulnerability and risk from inland flooding by 2070s (V5 – Most Vulnerable, V0 – Least Vulnerable; R4 – Highest Risk, R1 – Lowest Risk) Critical Assets Flooding - 2070 Type Name 10 yr 24-hr (6.4 in.) 100 yr 24-hr (11.7 in.) Vulnerability Risk Vulnerability Risk Power Plants (>10MW) Veolia-Kendall Cogeneration Station V1 V1-V3 MIT Co-generation Plant V5 R3 V5 R2 Bulk Transformer/ Substations North Cambridge V4 R4 V4 R3 Putnam V1-V3 V4 R3 East Cambridge V1-V3 V1-V3 Prospect V1-V3 V4 R3 Natural Gas City Gate Stations Brookford Street Take Station (N. Cambridge) V3-V5 R4 V5 R3 Natural Gas Distribution Regulator Stations Third St. Intermediate/Low- Pressure Regulator Station V2 V3-V5 R3 Steam Plants Harvard Blackstone Plant V1-V3 V1-V3
- 26. Mapping Draft 02/27/2015 – Not for distribution
- 27. Economic Analysis Estimated structural damages to buildings by commercial districts: 24 hour 100 yr. rainfall event 2070s: • Structural building damage from flooding scenarios reached as high as $232 million for the high rainfall event in 2070. • However, it is a relatively small portion of the $42.6 billion of the total assessed value of buildings in the City, at less than 1 percent of the total. Disruption of economic activity could be greater than property damage.
- 28. Address in the near future: • Increased heat: Both mortality (deaths) and morbidity (e.g., hospital visits) to be affected by extreme heat. • Indoor quality: challenges related to mold growth and resulting respiratory problems. Monitor: • Diseases impacted by CC − West Nile Virus : Warmer winter may increase the number of Culex mosquitoes − Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus : increased rainfall & warm summer temperatures temperatures indicate periods for intensified surveillance • Outdoor air quality: negligible Public Health ImplicationsPublic Health Implications
- 29. Priority Planning AreasCC Priority Planning Areas Draft 02/27/2015 – Not for distribution
- 30. 30 The Cambridge Context: Understanding Risks and Community Preparedness Designing Tomorrow’s Campus Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead Cambridge Vulnerability Assessment Kleinfelder Associates
- 31. 31 Resilient Campus Design Designing Tomorrow’s Campus James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr. Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture
- 32. Resilient Campus Design James L. Wescoat Jr. Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture
- 34. “Resilience” articles in The Tech • Perseverance & caring community • Mental health, suicide & accidents • Boston Marathon bombing • Cyberattacks and network resilience • Steam distribution system and electrical grid • Economic resilience • Sports team performance Summary: Limited results for “natural disaster resilience” OR “climate resilience,” v-a-v progress in campus energy planning.
- 35. Concepts of Resilience • Mechanical • Ecological • Psychosocial • Design: “Build Back Better” ---------------------- Resilience: “The ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events” (NRC, 2011). ----------------------
- 36. MIT 4.217/11.315: Disaster-Resilient Design Six Types of Design Contributions: • Mitigation • Retrofit • Reconstruction • Resettlement • Commemorative design • Integration of the above School of Architecture & Planning: • Urban Risk Lab (Mazereeuw) • Center for Advanced Urbanism Rebuild by Design, “New Meadowlands” • SIGUS (Goethert) • Many workshops and studios
- 37. Disaster-Resilient Design Workshop University of Engineering & Technology- Lahore
- 38. DISASTERS ROUNDTABLE Disaster Resilient Design—IGNITE Session Elizabeth Mossop Louisiana State University
- 40. 4.214: Water, Landscape & Urban Design at MIT
- 41. 4.214: Water, Landscape & Urban Design at MIT
- 43. Some Leading U.S. All-Hazards Research Centers • Carnegie-Mellon, Risk Perception & Communication • Texas A&M University, Hazard Reduction & Recovery* • University of Colorado-Boulder, Natural Hazards Center • University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center • University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Risk & Insurance • University of South Carolina, Hazards Geography -------------- • DHS Homeland Security Academic Advisory Council, HSAAC, 2014-2016. * Also part of the DHS Campus Resilience Pilot Program (7 Campuses).
- 44. “Whole Campus Approach” to Resilience (CARRI, CAReS, CASAs) • Safety and Security • Facilities & Utilities • MIT Medical • Environmental Health • Risk Management • Student Affairs • Campus Housing • Sustainability ------------ *See also U of Oregon DRU
- 45. RESILIENT CAMPUS DESIGN AT MIT: 2 Qs • How can the MIT Campus become a leading Research and Teaching Laboratory for resilient planning & design? • How can resilience become a visionary principle of campus planning & design (v-a-v mainly a functional requirement)?
- 46. 46 Resilient Campus Design Designing Tomorrow’s Campus James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr. Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture
- 47. 47 Campus Goal Setting for Climate Change Designing Tomorrow’s Campus Bert Bland Associate VP & Director, Energy and Sustainability, Cornell University
- 48. Goal Setting for Carbon Neutrality • Robert R. Bland, P.E. • Associate Vice President, Energy & Sustainability MITMIT SustainabilityConnect 2015
- 49. I am pleased to announce the successful conclusion of detailed discussions between Cornell students comprising the Kyoto Now! movement and members of the Cornell administration. Throughout these discussions, which have lasted for several days and nights, we have shared a common goal: to highlight the essential reduction of the emission of greenhouse gases, not only in the United States but throughout the world, as an instrument for the curtailment of global warming. Vice President Hal Craft 2001
- 50. 2001 12% below 1990 levels by 2010 2007 Carbon neutral by 2050 2014 Carbon neutral by 2035 We can centrally set a goal of 2035, but we won’t achieve it without broad campus ownership History of Carbon Goals
- 51. The College Engagement Program builds formal partnerships between Facilities and the colleges to engage staff, students, and faculty in organizational and personal change College Involvement
- 52. Facilities planned, centrally funded initiatives will not get Cornell to climate neutrality. So what will? • A new budget model that puts energy and space use bills in the college and unit’s hands • The colleges and units making tough trade-offs to fund energy conservation, behavior change, and high performance new construction • Academic leadership
- 53. Further experiments in distributing ownership of climate action are the needed. Recommendations of the Acceleration Working Group: • Academic partnerships on renewable energy production • Experiential climate literacy across all colleges • Extend conservation investment threshold to 15 year simple payback (6.6% ROI) • Set policy that all new construction is 50% more energy efficient than ASHRAE code • Add price of carbon to utility bills to colleges and units • Add price of carbon to business travel
- 54. 54 1. Plan space to avoid new buildings 2. Reduce energy demand 3. Use renewable electricity and renewable heat 4. Offset business travel and commuting Four Tiered Strategy
- 55. What is Climate Neutrality? Cornell’s Carbon Emissions - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 FY2008 FY2010 FY2012 FY2014 MetricTonsC02e
- 56. 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 GSFMMBTU/YR ECRF & EHOB Weill Hall Duffield Physical Sciences & AHDC Human Ecology Milstein ~186 kBtu/Sf-Yr ~162 kBtu/Sf-Yr North Campus and West Campus 56 Reduce Energy Demand
- 57. *Diagram not to scale Gas Water Electricity Heat Supply Renewable Energy
- 58. 58 Renewable Electricity Electricity: solar, wind, hydro power Successful PPA business model uses no Cornell capital • Power purchase agreements for solar PV and wind electricity expected to save money Research and teaching opportunities • Black Oak R&D agreement being developed • Snyder Rd Solar Farm educational array
- 59. 59 Insert graphic of EGS 100-120 °C Basement Rock Renewable Heat
- 60. Cornell Tech: A Case Study in Mitigation and Adaptation
- 62. Climate neutrality and resiliency together… Thank You! Bert Bland rrb2@cornell.edu
- 63. 63 Campus Goal Setting for Climate Change Designing Tomorrow’s Campus Bert Bland Associate VP & Director, Energy and Sustainability, Cornell University
- 64. 06 Designing Tomorrow’s Campus Resiliency, Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change Anne Slinn (Moderator) Executive Director for Research, MIT Center for Global Change Science Anne has been helping to organize MIT’s interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, and international research on global change challenges for over 20 years. She is a current member of the MIT Conversation on Climate Change Committee. Kleinfelder Associates Nathalie Beauvais, Project Lead Kleinfelder is a team of engineers, architects, and scientists based in Cambridge, MA. Kleinfelder is currently completing a Vulnerability Assessment for the City of Cambridge. James ‘Jim’ Wescoat, Jr. Professor, MIT Dept. of Architecture Bert Bland Associate VP & Director, Energy and Sustainability, Cornell University Bert leads the Energy and Sustainability office within Cornell's Facility Services Department, overseeing energy, sustainability, and utilities management for campus. Bert also leads the transformation of the campus to a living laboratory for sustainable practices in all campus operations. Jim is the Aga Khan Professor for the Department of Architecture. His research concentrates on sustainable water and landscape design in South Asia and the U.S. from the site to river basin scales.
- 65. Time for .
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