Population growth (2)(1).11111111111pptx

Population growth: change in
population over time, and can be
quantified as the change in the number of
individuals in a population using "per
unit time" for measurement.

Population growth rate (PGR) is the fractional rate at which the number of
individuals in a population increases.
change in population over a unit time period.
Growth rate= Population at the end of the period-population at beginning of period
Population at the beginning of the period
Growth rate = crude birth rate - crude death rate + net immigration rate, or
∆P/P = (B/P) - (D/P) + (I/P) - (E/P).
P: total population,
B: number of births,
D: number of deaths,
I : number of immigrants, and
E is the number of emigrants.

Most common way to express population
growth is as a ratio.
The change in population over a unit
time period is expressed as a
percentage of the population at the
beginning of the time period.
Growth ratio= growth rate X 100%

 A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the
population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio
(or rate) indicates population falling.
 A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the
same number of people at the two times –
net difference between births, deaths and migration is
zero.

 Globally, the growth rate of the human population has
been steadily declining since peaking in 1962 and
1963 at 2.20% per annum.
 The world population was at its peak till 1970 where
human population grew by 1.92%
 In 2009 the estimated annual growth rate was 1.10%.

Growth rate > 2%:
Countries of the Middle East,
Sub-Saharan Africa,
South Asia,
Southeast Asia, &
Latin America

The expected no of births/ woman at current
fertility rates is:
For industrialized countries-1.6
For developing countries- 2.9
Least developed countries- 4.9
Global total fertility rate is 2.6
 World population has been growing at 176
people/min; 10,564 people/hr; 253,542
people/day & 92,543,000 people/yr
 The last one hundred years have seen a rapid
increase in population due to medical advances &
massive increase in agricultural productivity made
possible by the Green Revolution

Net Reproduction Rate(NRR):
NRR >1 indicates that the population of
women is increasing,
NRR <1 indicates that the population of
women is decreasing.

Population in India:
India’s population can be divided in four
distinct phases:
1901-1921 stagnant phase
1921-1951 steady growth
1951-1981 Rapid high growth
1981-2001 High growth with sure signs
of slowing

Indias population
238 million in 1901
438 million in1961
846 million in 1991
Population increasing at the rate of 16
million/yr

 During 1981-91, population of India increased by about
23.86% & average exponential growth rate was 2.14.
 There was lowering of population growth during 1991-
2001, with decadal growth rate being 21.34% &
exponential growth rate being 1.93%.
 Though the growth rate of India's population is high,
there are several other countries with higher growth
rates:
 Bangladesh: 2.67
 Pakistan: 3.44
 Nepal: 2.48

Growth of population in states & union territories
 During decade 1981-1991, lowest annual growth
rate(0.9%) were recorded by Kerala followed by TN, AP &
Goa.
 Highest annual growth rates are observed for Nagaland,
followed by Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman, Diu & Delhi.
 It is difficult to identify the factors responsible for
interstate variations in growth rates because reliable data
on births deaths & migration are not available.

Causes of population growth
Universality of marriage: Every one gets married &
participate in
reproduction.
Early marriage: 60% girls 16-19yrs
already married.
Early Puberty: Indian girls attain early
puberty
Low std of living: Low std of living →↑BR
Low literacy: 65.8% of population- literate
Female literacy- still
lower
Traditional habits & customs: Children gift of God
Absence of FP

Contd
Absence of natural checks: Famines & large scale
epidemics
 Mass control of diseases: Smallpox, plague,
cholera
 Advances in medical sciences: Chemotherapeutics
Antibiotics & insecticides
 Better health facilities: PHC
 Impact of national health programmes
 Improvements in food supply
 International aid in several directions
 Development of social consciousness among masses

CAUSES OF POPULATION EXPLOSION:
 Widening gap between birth rate (BR) & death rate (DR)
 Low age at marriage
 Low female literacy
 Unfavorable religious attitude towards family planning (FP)
 Gender inequality & importance of male child
 Joint family system: less responsibility of couple to bring up their
children
 Lack of information
 Lack of choice of contraceptives
 Side effects of contraceptives leading to distrust among people
 Poor services of family planning
 Poverty: More the no of children more working hands
→
 Strict laws, forceful implementation of FP services:
India has witnessed the effect of failure of such a policy in 1977
when forceful male fertilization Political & public movement
→

Key factors in fertility decline were:
Changes in government attitudes towards growth
Spread of education
Increased availability of contraception &
Extension of services offered through family
planning programmes
Marked change in marriage patterns.

Effects of population growth
Results in poverty.
Rising global temperature.
Shrinking amount of cropland per person.
Decline in amount of wheat and rice grown/person.
Shrinking area of tropical moist forests.
Decreasing oceanic fish harvest per person.
Increasing number of people dying due to various
diseases.
↓Std of living, decrease life expectancy, ↓MMR
Growing gap between rich and poor

EFFECTS OF POPULATION EXPLOSION
1) Living standards of people:
 Large no of people are homeless
 Majority of people Without safe drinking water
→
 ↑ Illiteracy & more among them are women
 ↑ Prevalence of under weight children & malnourished women
 Housing & living areas over crowded
 Break down of transport, electricity & crime
2) Rise in crime & violence.
3) High level of un employment
4) Poverty
↑
5) Famine

6) Health education & research Poor health
↓ →
7)Poor sanitation services
8) Environmental degradation : Air, water, soil.
9)Deforestation & ecology modification Global warming
→
10) Increased competition for survival Unhappiness
→

Measures to reduce Population overgrowth
Age at marriage-
prior to 1951: age at marriage for girls: 13 yrs
Child marriage restraint act, 1978: ↑15-18 yrs
Duration of married life-
10-25% of births in 1-5 yrs of married life
50-55% of births 5-15 yrs of married life.
Family planning efforts should be concentrated in
first few yrs of married life

Spacing of children:
when all births are postponed by 1 yr →↓GFR
Education:
TFR 1.5 children for illiterate women than for
women with at least high school
education(NHFS2)
Economic status:
Inverse relationship with fertility.
Economic development-best contraceptive.
(World population conference) –Bucharest.

Nutrition:
well fed societies → low fertility poorly
fed societies → High fertility
Family planning
Key factor in reducing fertility
Other factors:
 place of woman in society
 widow remarriage
 better health conditions

National policies to reduce demographic gap
National Family Planning Programme:
India : 1st
country to launch Family Planning
Programme →CBR↓ 40.8(1951) to
26.4
(1998)
National Health Policy, 1983:
TFR of 2.1 achieved by yr 2000
TFR : 6.0(1951) → 3.3(1997)
National population policy:
Stable population by 2045

Population growth (2)(1).11111111111pptx

NATIONAL
POPULATION
POLICY - 2000

Introduction:
 Population explosion is defined as
the “phenomenon of the size of a
population tending to a large
number in a finite interval of time.”
 Current population of India 113
→
crores which accounts 16% of
worlds population
 While the global population
Increased threefold from 2 billion
→
to 6 billion
Indian population Increased nearly
→
fivefold from 23 crores to 113
crores.

Bare Facts
 Every 6th
person (globe) Indian
→
 India adds about 10 lack person to its population Every fortnight
→
 By 2050 India would overtake china as the worlds most populous
nation
 About half of the Indian population Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, UP,
→
(BIMARU states)

Reasons for failure
 Lack of political commitment
 Lack of people participation
 Lack of quality health services
 Lack of education
 Lack of overall development
 Lack of appropriate technology
 Lack of transparent administration
 Lack of Women empowerment

National population policy(NPP)-2000
Milestones:
1948- Bhore Committee report
1952- Launching of FP Programme
1976-Statement of NPP
1977- Policy statement on Family welfare Programme
1979-Conversion of elimination of all forms of discrimination against
women (CEDAW)
1983-National health policy (NHP) set the long term demography
goal of achieving the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) of one by 2000
National Demography Goals:
Average size of family reduced to 2.3
→
BR/1000 Population reduced to 21
→
DR/1000 Population reduced to 9
→
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) reduced to < 60/live births
→

1986-Policy evolved & promoted slogan “movement of the people, by
the people, for the people.”
1991- National Development Council appointed a committee on
Population
1993- Dr MS Swami Nathan Report was submitted
1995- 4th
World Conference on women in Beijing
1997- Cabinet approved the draft National Population Policy
1999- Final draft National Population Policy was approved by the
parliament as “National Population Policy 2000”

Objectives
Immediate:
To meet the unmet need of contraception
Strengthening health infrastructure
Strengthening of health personnel
Promote integrated services for basic health care
Midterm:
To Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 2 by 2010
↓ →
Long term:
Stable Population by 2050

National socio demographic Goals for 2010
 Unmet needs for the basic RCH services & infrastructure
 Make school education up to 14 yrs free & compulsory ( school
↓
drop outs at primary & secondary levels to < 20%)
 ↓IMR 30/1000 live births
→
 ↓MMR <1/1000 live births
→
 Universal Immunization of children against all vaccine preventable
diseases
 Marriage age should not be < 18
 Achieve at least 80% Institutional delivery
 Achieve 100% registration of births, deaths, marriage &
pregnancy
 Containment of AIDS & integration between management of AIDS
& STD
 Prevention & control of communicable diseases
 Integration of Indian system of medicine in provision of RCH
services
 Promote family norm to achieve replacement level of TFR 2.1

Strategies
Decentralized planning & Programme Implementation:
73rd
& 74th
Constitutional amendments act, 1992 made health,
family welfare & education a responsibility of Village Panchayat
raj Institutions
Since 33% of elected Panchayat seats Reserved for women,
→
representative committee of panchayat should be
formed( headed by women) to promote a gender sensitive,
multisectoral agenda for population stabilization locally.

Conversion of service delivery at village levels
 More flexible approach Basic reproductive & child health care
→
through mobile clinics & counseling
services
 Govt alone cant make for the inadequacies in healthcare
infrastructure & services, hence involvement of nongovernmental
sector in partnership with the government is essential
 One stop integrated & coordinated service at village level for
basic RCH services By providing at least 2 trained birth
→
attendants/village
It is proposed that an equipped maternity hut
in each village should be set up to serve as
delivery room with functioning midwifery kits &
basic medication for essential obstetric aid

EMPOWERING WOMEN for Improved health & nutrition
 Maternal mortality is an indicator of disparity to appropriate
health care & nutrition services particularly during pregnancy &
child birth.
 Programmes for safe motherhood, universal immunization, child
survival, & oral rehydration have been combined into an
integrated Reproductive and child health Programme which
includes promoting managements of STIs & RTIs
 Voluntary NGOS & private cooperative sector should actively
collaborate with the government through specific commitments in
basic areas of RCH

Child survival and child health
 Infant mortality is an sensitive indicator of human development
A National Technical committee should be set up, consisting of
Obstetrics, pediatrics, family health, medical research & statistics,
public health professionals, clinical practitioners & govt
 Its main aim is to set up perinatal audit norms, developing quality
improvement activities with monitoring schedules & suggestions
for provision of continuing medical & nursing education to all
perinatal health care providers
 Baby Friendly Hospitals should be extended to all hospitals, &
clinics up to sub centre levels
 Child survival interventions Universal immunizations, control of
→
childhood diarrhoea, with oral rehydration therapies,
management of ARI, massive doses of vitamin A & food
supplements have helped to
↓IMR &MMR.

Meeting the unmet needs for family welfare services
 Strengthen, energize & make accountable health infrastructure
→
at village, sub centre
&PHC
for referral
transportation
Greater emphasis for under served population groups
1) Urban slums: Basic primary health care including RCH care
needs
to be provided
Coordination with municipal bodies for water,
sanitation
& waste disposal
2)Tribal communities, hilly populations & displaced and
migrant population: need special attention in terms of basic &
RCH services

Adolescents:
 Encourage delayed age of marriage, child bearing, and education
of adolescents about the risk of unprotected sex
Increased participation of men in planned parent
hood:
Active Involvement of men FP, Supporting contraceptive use,
→
helping pregnant women stay healthy, arranging skilled care
during delivery, helping after the baby is born & finally become
responsible father
Currently > 90% of the sterilizations Tubectomies & this
→
manifestation of gender
imbalance needs to be
corrected.
Re popularizing vasectomies No Scalpel Vasectomy as a safe &
→
simple procedure.

Diverse health care provider:
Private practitioners of Indigenous system of medicine
→Need to be accredited & assigned with definite beneficiary
groups to provide specific clinical services.
Collaboration with commitment from private agencies & NGOs:
Private health care has grown significantly which accounts for 75% of
health care expenditures
Mobilizing the private sector to serve the public through public-
private
Partnerships

Involvement of Indian system of medicine in the delivery of
RCH services:
Utilization of Indian System of Medicine & Homeopathy (ISMH) In
→
delivery of basic RCH services expand the pool of effective
→
health care providers & optimize utilization of local based
remedies & cures.
Contraceptive technology & research in RCH:
Consultation & frequent dialogue by government with the existing
network of public & private research institution engaged in social
science, demography & behavioral research must continue.
International Institute of Population Sciences & the Population
research centers have set up to pursue applied research in
population related matters need to be revitalized.

 Providing healthcare & support for the older population
 Information, Education & Communication
 LEGISLATION:
42nd
Constitutional amendment Allows LokSabha & Rajya Sabha
→
seats to be frozen on basis of 1971 census till 2026
79th
Amendment bill of 1992 Disqualify a person for being a
→
member of either house if has >2 children

Structure:
At National level: National commission on population chaired by PM
& all state CMs, Other ministers, NGOs, & health
professionals
At State level: State commission on Population should be
constituted
Funding: National Population Policy expressed that projects &
schemes promised on goals & objectives of policy 2000 will be
adequately funded.
 Panchayat & Zilla Paris had Rewarded for exemplary
→
performance
 Balika SamridhiYojana Cash of Rs 500 at the birth of girl child
→
in birth order of 1 or 2
 Maternity Benefit Scheme Cash to mothers having 1
→ st
child after
19 yrs of age for birth of 1 or 2 children
only
 A Family Welfare Linked Insurance Plan will be worked out
→

 BPL couples will be rewarded for their active involvement in FP services
 Village self help groups will be set up
 Crèches & child centers will be opened in rural & urban slums
 A wider & affordable choice of contraceptives will be accessible
 Innovative social marketing schemes will be promoted
 Ambulance service at village level will be strengthened
 Increased vocational training for girls self employment will be
→
encouraged
 Strict enforcement of Child Marriage Restraint act,1976
 Strict enforcement of Pre-Natal Diagnostic Act,1994
 Self loans to ensure mobility of ANMs will be increased

Jansankhya Sthirtha Kosh (JSK)
 National Population Stabilization Fund (NPSF) was initially set up under
National Commission on Population
 Subsequently NPSF was transferred to Dept of Family Welfare in April
2002
 It was renamed & registered as Janasankhya Sthirtha Kosh (JSK) under
Societies Registration Act,1860 IN June 2003
 Objective of this Kosh Attainment of Goals of National Population Policy
→
2000
 The fund will support projects, schemes, initiatives designed to help
population stabilization
 Provide window for canalizing resources through voluntary contributions
from individuals, industry, trade organization for population stabilization

SWOT ANALYSIS
 STRENGTH:
 Formulation of National Policy by Health Ministry (Planning &
Commission) &
cabinet
 Policy is passed by the parliament
 Well planned & passed after many deliberations particularly
 Swami Nathan Committee & National Health Policy
 Long experience of National Family Welfare Programme
WEAKNESS:
 Some goals & targets unrealistic
 Lack of community involvement
 Lack of resources & poor budgeting
 Lack of well planned monitoring & evaluation

Opportunities
Research in RCH & MCH would handle
↑demand
Integrated approach involving mother adolscent
child in area of nutrition, health, education &
other fields
Decentralization & more autonomy for better
implementation.
Legislation act as disincentive for large family
size. Strict enforcement of child marriage
restraint act &PNDT provided.
Adequacy of funding assured.

Threat
 Reviving system of medical practitioners may not be supported by
the IMA & other professional bodies
 Flexibility in NGOs may give rise to more corruption &
compromise in achievement of targets
 Cash Incentive & heavy dependency on health care providers in
government system would compromise quality & financial
↑
burden
 More encouragement to private sector would make India the most
privatized health system in the world

Rashtriya Janani SurakshaYojana
 Centrally sponsored scheme which give cash assistance to
mothers Below Poverty line
 Cash assistance of Rs 500 for the birth of a male child & Rs 1000
for female child (In case of Institutional Delivery)
 Village level workers like ANM & Dais Involved in identification
→
of beneficiaries
 This scheme is aimed to reduce maternal mortality

COUNTRY PROGRAM-6
 This Programme has been launched from January 2003-December
2007 will cover 32 districts of 6 states Rajasthan, Maharashtra,
Kerala, Orrisa, MP, Gujarat.
 Aims:
 Reach out to families & individual men & women to avail quality FP
 Assist govt to strengthening infrastructure & health services
 Bring in human rights & gender perspective to FP, reproductive
health
 & gender issues.
 Work with state govt at policy & advocacy level
The total outlay marked for the project in 6 states is 365 crores for 5
yrs

Population growth (2)(1).11111111111pptx

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