Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)
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The document outlines 5 patterns for predicting the future of technology: 1. Foundational technologies that enable new platforms will drive the biggest changes. 2. Hype for new technologies follows a predictable hype curve pattern. 3. Disruptive technologies will change established markets by enabling new networks and uses. 4. While some technologies converge, most will continue to diverge into distinct domains and venues over time. 5. History shows that breakthroughs often happen in predictable cycles, and many modern innovations were predicted decades before.
Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)
- 1. Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future Jesse Schell @jesseschell
- 4. $ $ $ $ $ $
- 9. 5 patterns
- 10. Pattern1 Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes
- 12. Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?
- 13. Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)
- 14. Plane Crazy (May, 1928)
- 17. The Hype Curve
- 32. Public / Private Venues Gaming Table Playground Anywhere
- 36. 1849!
- 38. 2011 Palmer Luckey (age 20) 1968 Ivan Sutherland 1884 Nipkow Disk 1927 Philo Farnsworth (age 20) TV VR 43 Years Later 43 Years Later
- 40. Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes The Hype Curve Disruption Technology Mostly Diverges History Keeps Repeating 5 4 3 1 2 Send your predictions to me! Jesse@SchellGames.com Thanks! Find slides at: JesseSchell.com