DurangoMasterPlan_01-27-09

DURANGO SCHOOL DISTRICT 9-R Facility Master Plan Elements Overview Presented by Strategic Resources West, Inc. (303) 688-7963 January 27, 2009

Master Plan Study Summary Economics and Demographics Development Potential Enrollment History & Forecasts Capacity Analysis Facility Adequacy – 2009 to 2014 and Build Out Observations and Recommendations

Major Employment Sectors: 2007 2007 La Plata County Employing Sector Employment Distribution Construction 2,983 11.7% Retail & Wholesale Trade 3,928 15.4% Financial Activities & Real Estate 1,397 5.5% Professional & Business Services 2,198 8.6% Educational & Health Services 2,720 10.7% Leisure & Hospitality 3,959 15.5% All Other Private 3,147 12.3% Government 5,201 20.4% Total Employment 25,533 100.0%

Census Population and 2007 est. 1990 and 2000 Census and 2007 Population by Area Change Population 2000 to 2007 . Area April 1990 April 2000 July 2007 Population Percent State of Colorado 3,294,473 4,301,261 4,919,884 618,623 14.4% La Plata County 32,284 43,941 49,758 5,817 13.2% Bayfield 1,090 1,549 1,941 392 25.3% Durango 12,439 13,922 16,169 2,247 16.1% Ignacio 720 669 736 67 10.0% Unincorp. Area 18,035 27,801 30,912 3,111 11.2%

County population up 13.2% since 2000 (49,758 est. in 7/07) Durango population up 16.1% Both grew near state average (14.4%) County population projected to be more than 67,600 by 2020 Populations under age 15 low relative to state; high for 65+ and 15-24 Population and Age Distributions

Population and Distribution by Age Range and vis-à-vis Total Age Group Population as a Percent of Total Colorado Municipalities - 2000 Munici-pality Median Age Under 15 Ages 15 to 24 Ages 25 to 44 Ages 45 to 64 Aged 65+ Total Population Colorado 34.30 21.3% 14.3% 32.6% 22.2% 9.7% 4,301,261 Bayfield 34.60 24.5% 14.2% 30.0% 23.8% 7.5% 1,549 Durango 29.20 13.0% 29.7% 27.2% 19.4% 10.7% 13,922 Ignacio 35.70 25.4% 12.6% 29.9% 20.5% 11.7% 669 La Plata Co. 35.60 18.1% 18.4% 29.0% 25.1% 9.4% 43,941

Population Projections Population Projections for 2010, 2020, and 2030 Change 2010 to 2030 Area 2010 2020 2030 Population Percent State of Colorado 5,218,144 6,287,021 7,331,876 2,113,732 40.5% La Plata County 51,517 67,672 81,828 30,311 58.8%

Housing Units Built by Period Units Built Proportion Years SF-d SF-a MultiFam* Mfrd Hsg** Total of Total Prior to 1970 3,516 356 744 146 4,762 36% 1970's 1,249 782 108 270 2,409 18% 1980's 1,275 642 21 240 2,178 16% 1990's 2,006 466 33 462 2,967 22% 2000-2007 2,003 970 64 214 3,251 25% *: excludes 570 units with unknown year of construction. **: excludes units in mobile home parks.

Student Generation Student Generation Rates Applied Housing Types School level SF-d SF-a MultiFam Mfd. Hsg Elem. (K-5) 0.13 0.04 0.05 0.24 Middle (6-8) 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.10 High (9-12) 0.09 0.03 0.04 0.12 Total 0.28 0.09 0.11 0.47

Housing & Enrollment Potential Housing Unit Elementary Schools Potential per by Middle School TRIP estimates Future Student Potential Feeder Area at Build-out Elem. Middle High Total K-12 Miller MS Area: Animas Valley 7,819 680 276 431 1,388 Needham 3,761 563 310 438 1,311 Riverview 5,204 663 273 352 1,288 Total 16,784 1,906 860 1,221 3,987 Escalante MS Area: Florida Mesa 9,759 1,851 865 1,319 4,035 Ft. Lewis Mesa 4,325 569 290 438 1,297 Park 8,564 936 431 531 1,898 Sunnyside 2,871 424 214 385 1,023 Total 25,518 3,780 1,800 2,673 8,254 District Total 42,303 5,686 2,660 3,894 12,240

Retail Sales La Plata County Retail Sales (in thousands) by Area Year Durango Bayfield Ignacio Remainder County Total 2000 $ 742,073 $ 28,350 $ 16,484 $ 187,887 $ 974,795 2001 773,411 26,770 15,671 194,073 1,009,925 2002 805,153 26,323 15,722 187,668 1,034,865 2003 839,582 30,382 16,270 181,837 1,068,070 2004 978,871 40,806 16,970 220,208 1,256,855 2005 982,242 52,153 16,784 270,201 1,321,379 2006 1,102,658 60,937 17,556 296,601 1,477,752 2007 1,154,686 67,627 20,187 374,556 1,617,056 Change: 2000 to 2007 Sales $ 412,613 $ 39,277 $ 3,703 $ 186,669 $ 642,261 Percent 55.6% 138.5% 22.5% 99.4% 65.9%

Economic Indicators Retail sales up about 2/3 since 2000 Largest % increase in unincorporated area Largest $ increase in Durango District assessed value approximates $2.0 billion Bonding capacity approaches $400 million (less outstanding debt of ~$87 million)

Assessed Value & Bonding Capacity Debt outstanding = $86.63 million Durango S.D. 9-R Total Taxable Change from Bonding Assessed Value Prior Year Capacity Year (in thousands) (thousands) Percent (thousands) 1998 $ 878,927 $ 175,785 1999 950,158 71,232 8.1% 190,032 2000 989,926 39,767 4.2% 197,985 2001 1,382,071 392,145 39.6% 276,414 2002 1,452,122 70,051 5.1% 290,424 2003 1,193,135 (258,987) -17.8% 238,627 2004 1,584,945 391,810 32.8% 316,989 2005 1,832,424 247,479 15.6% 366,485 2006 2,090,148 257,724 14.1% 418,030 2007 1,992,879 (97,268) -4.7% 398,576

Economic Potential Area growth primarily dependent upon tourism and related industries Water availability can accommodate a population more than double the current level Housing affordability is an issue Largest residential growth is planned southeast of City Medical center growing in importance

TABLE II-2. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS SUMMARY BY SCENARIO — 2009 to 2014 SCENARIO LOW -- 10 Year Cohort Survival MIDDLE -- 5 Year Cohort Survival HIGH -- 5 Year Cohort w/o High & Low Elemen. Middle Sr. High Elemen. Middle Sr. High Elemen. Middle Sr. High YEAR (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Total (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Total (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Total 2008 Actual 2,169 1,056 1,530 4,755 PROJECTED: 2009 2,247 1,046 1,475 4,767 2,254 1,055 1,454 4,763 2,256 1,058 1,464 4,779 2010 2,255 1,046 1,475 4,776 2,321 1,105 1,429 4,855 2,327 1,107 1,451 4,885 2011 2,313 1,096 1,457 4,866 2,439 1,110 1,431 4,980 2,449 1,109 1,477 5,035 2012 2,419 1,100 1,452 4,971 2,528 1,151 1,509 5,188 2,538 1,151 1,579 5,268 2013 2,489 1,142 1,508 5,139 2,614 1,178 1,541 5,333 2,622 1,182 1,612 5,416 2014 2,554 1,160 1,535 5,249 2,705 1,251 1,555 5,510 2,710 1,260 1,624 5,595

TABLE II-3. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS SUMMARY BY SCHOOL Schools by High Actual Enrollment Forecasts School Feeder Area 2008 2009 2014 Elementary Schools: Escalante Middle School Area: Florida Mesa 331 331 372 Fort Lewis Mesa 157 160 157 Park 427 434 474 Sunnyside 121 122 130 Total EMS Elementary 1,036 1,047 1,134 Miller Middle School Area: Animas Valley 266 275 304 Needham 469 471 494 Needham -- Shared Programs 22 22 22 Riverview 398 406 433 Total MMS Elementary 1,155 1,173 1,254 Elementary Subtotal -- w/o Shared Programs 2,169 2,198 2,365 Elementary -- with Shared Programs 2,191 2,220 2,387

TABLE II-3. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS SUMMARY BY SCHOOL Schools by High Actual Enrollment Forecasts School Feeder Area 2008 2009 2014 Middle Schools: Escalante Middle 510 502 582 Escalante -- Shared Programs 13 13 13 DeNier 1 1 1 Miller Middle 545 550 621 Middle Subtotal -- w/o Shared Programs 1,056 1,052 1,204 Middle -- with Shared Programs 1,069 1,065 1,217 Senior High Schools: Durango High 1,512 1,465 1,535 Durango High -- Durango Academy 25 25 25 DeNier 18 18 18 Sr. High Subtotal -- w/o Shared Programs 1,530 1,483 1,553 Sr. High Subtotal -- with Shared Programs 1,555 1,508 1,578 District K-12 Total -- w/o Shared Programs 4,755 4,733 5,122 District K-12 Total -- with Shared Programs 4,815 4,793 5,182

Capacity Estimates Three methodologies plus District Program: Castaldi University of Wisconsin Oklahoma Department of Education Key methodology issues: Room size Room type (utilization) Efficiency Optimum/maximum Program quality

Capacity Estimates by Methodology Student Capacity Estimates Capacity Univ. of Oklahoma per District SRW Castaldi Wisconsin Dept. of Preferred Suggested School Level and Schools (Average) Survey Education Program Capacity Elementary Schools Animas Valley 437 518 441 400 440 Florida Mesa 568 696 616 440 620 Fort Lewis Mesa 375 453 394 360 390 Needham 604 727 630 490 630 Park 590 706 607 481 600 Riverview 597 715 616 465 610 Sunnyside 396 470 400 308 400 Total Elementary 3,568 4,285 3,704 2,944 3,690

Capacity Estimates by Methodology Student Capacity Estimates Capacity Univ. of Oklahoma per District SRW Castaldi Wisconsin Dept. of Preferred Suggested School Level and Schools (Average) Survey Education Program Capacity Middle Schools Optimum: Escalante 682 765 632 696 680 Miller 726 824 669 665 720 Total Middle - Opt. 1,408 1,589 1,301 1,361 1,400 Maximum: Escalante 773 867 716 789 770 Miller 823 933 758 754 820 Total Middle - Max 1,596 1,801 1,474 1,543 1,591 Senior High School Optimum: Durango HS 1,598 1,740 1,601 1,529 1,600 Maximum: Durango HS 1,798 1,958 1,801 1,720 1,800

TABLE IV-1. AVAILABLE CAPACITY BY SCHOOL SRW Current and Net Capacity Suggested Projected Enrollment Available (Short) Schools by Level Capacity* Fall 2008 Fall 2014 Fall 2008 Fall 2014 Elementary Schools: Animas Valley 440 266 304 174 136 Florida Mesa 620 331 372 289 247 Fort Lewis Mesa 390 157 157 233 233 Needham 630 469 494 161 136 Park 600 427 474 173 126 Riverview 610 398 433 212 177 Sunnyside 400 121 130 279 270 Total Elementary 3,688 2,169 2,364 1,519 1,324 Middle Schools: Escalante 680 510 582 170 98 Miller 720 545 621 175 99 Total Middle 1,400 1,055 1,203 345 197 Senior High School: Durango High 1,600 1,512 1,535 88 65

Capacity per Grade Balance Student Capacity Schools School Type Capacity per Grade to Fill Elementary (Florida Mesa) 620 103 Middle (Escalante) 680 227 2.2 Senior High (DHS) 1,600 400 1.8

Site Considerations Elementary Secondary School Sites Acres Capacity School Sites Acres Capacity Elementary Middle Animas Valley 14.960 440 Escalante 27.441 680 Florida Mesa 14.640 620 Miller 11.618 720 Ft Lewis Mesa 12.930 390 Total 39.059 1,400 Needham 11.600 630 Average 19.530 700 Park 4.140 600 Riverview 21.030 610 Durango HS 19.785 1,600 Sunnyside 10.000 400 Total 89.300 3,688

Key Observations Modest growth potential expected Child population relatively low Births have been increasing Attendance patterns – into City schools Elementary capacities high because of large classrooms Elementary school site size standard (15 acres) is larger than most; be mindful of safe access

Key Observations – con’t Middle schools and high school room spaces more typical in size Current middle school site size standards (30 acres) are adequate and more; High school site standards (45 acres) could be adequate but the current high school site is very small at ~20 acres Per grade capacity imbalances among school levels may cause utilization inefficiencies Effect of charter school to open is unknown

DurangoMasterPlan_01-27-09

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