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5. Chapter 6 - Instructor’s Resource Guide to
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, Eighth Edition
Page 1 of 23
Chapter Overview
Overview – This chapter introduces the process of project planning, which involves
identifying the specific goals of the project and breaking them down into achievable
tasks. The concepts of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and Linear Responsibility
Chart (LRC) are also introduced.
1) Initial Project Coordination and the Project Charter – The project launch meeting is
an excellent way to begin the planning process. At this meeting the team is gathered
for the first time to allow them to develop a general idea about the requirements of the
project. The intent is not to present fully developed plans and schedules but rather to
present the project in general, so that the team members can develop detailed plans
and schedules for themselves and present them at subsequent meetings. After the
planning process is complete it is useful to have a postplanning review chaired by an
experienced project manager not involved with this project previously.
a). Outside Clients – When the project involves an outside client, the planning
process must include the complete definition of the deliverables that will be
provided. This can be accomplished efficiently by involving the design and
marketing teams early in the planning process. The intent is to prevent later
surprises. E.g: The previously ignored manufacturing group announces that they
can’t build the design that has taken 10 months so far to be developed.
b). Project Charter Elements – Project plans and their development vary from
organization to organization, but they should all have the following elements:
i) Purpose – A short summary of objectives and project scope.
ii) Objectives – A more detailed statement of the general goals of the project.
This statement should include profit and competitive aims from the Business
Case as well as technical goals based on the Statement of Work (SOW).
iii) Overview – A description of both the managerial and the technical approaches
to the work.
iv) Schedules – This section outlines the various schedules and lists all milestone
events and/or phase-gates.
v) Resources – This element contains the budgets by task as well as the cost
control and monitoring plans.
vi) Personnel – This element contains a time phased plan for the people (or at
least the skills) required for the project.
vii)Risk Management Plans – This covers potential problems as well as potential
lucky breaks that could affect the project.
viii) Evaluation Methods – This section describes the methods used to monitor,
evaluate, and collect the history of the project.
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c). Project Planning in Action – Plans can be constructed by listing the sequence of
activities necessary to complete the project. The nine segments of the project are:
i) Concept evaluation
ii) Requirements identification
iii) Design
iv) Implementation
v) Test
vi) Integration
vii)Validation
viii) Customer test and evaluation
ix) Operations and maintenance
2) Starting the Project Plan
a) The WBS – The work breakdown structure (WBS) is a tool used to capture the
decomposition of activities and the assignment of personnel. The WBS is not one
thing. It can take a wide variety of forms that, in turn, serve a wide variety of
purposes. The text suggests the following steps for WBS development:
i) Break the tasks down into sufficient detail so that they can be individually
planned, budgeted, scheduled, monitored, and controlled. The tasks at the
bottom of the structure are typically called work packages.
ii) Identify the relevant supporting information needed for each work package
and the people who will work them.
iii) The work packages must be reviewed with the people involved to ensure their
accuracy and adequacy in describing the tasks to be accomplished.
iv) The WBS can be used to capture the direct costs estimated or budgeted for
each task.
v) The summary of the schedule information associated with each work package
can be summarized into a project master schedule.
Both the planned schedule and budget for each work package can be used as the
baseline to measure performance as the project is executed.
3) Human Resources: The RACI Matrix and Agile Projects
Identifying and securing the right employees for project work is one of the most
important PM tasks. One way to identify the HR needs is to create an Organizational
Breakdown Structure (OBS). It shows the organizational units that are responsible for
the various work elements of the project. By creating RACI matrixes and utilizing
agile project methods, better management of human resources can be attained.
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a) The Responsibility (RACI) Matrix – An approach to identify the human resources
needed for the project is to use the RACI (Responsible, Accountable, Consult, Inform)
matrix. The matrix shows critical interfaces between units that may require special
managerial coordination. With it, the PM can keep track of who must approve what,
who must be notified, and other such relationships. The RACI matrix displays the
WBS items in the left-most column of a table. The individuals, groups, or units
involved in the project are displayed in the top row. The project manager then uses
the matrix to identify who is Responsible, who is Accountable, who should be
Consulted, and who should be Informed.
b) Agile Project Planning and Management – Traditional methods are insufficient, if
an organization finds it difficult to define the project adequately in the shortest
possible time. In situations like these agile project management (APM) may be
effective. APM requires close and continual contact between the project team and the
clients. Project requirements are a result of client/developer interaction, and the
requirements change as the interaction leads to a better understanding on both sides of
the project requirements, priorities, and limitations.
4) Interface Coordination Through Integration Management – Interface coordination is
the task of coordinating work across multiple groups. Multidisciplinary teams (MTs)
are often used to facilitate the coordination of technical issues. Techniques are
available to assist this process by mapping the interdependencies between team
members.
a) Managing Projects by Phases and Phase-Gates – One way to facilitate
interdisciplinary cooperation is to break the project into phases and require the team
to have specific deliverables at each phase. Then an oversight process can evaluate
the deliverables and decide whether the project is ready to pass onto the next phase.
This technique is applied in addition to the normal cost and schedule control
techniques associated with projects.
5) Project Risk Management – This is the PMBOK knowledge area number 8. It defines
risk management as the systematic process for identifying, analyzing, and responding
to project risk. Seven processes exist:
a). Risk Management Planning
b). Risk Identification
c). Qualitative Risk Analysis
d). Quantitative Risk Analysis
i) Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
ii) Decision Tree Analysis
iii) Monte Carlo Simulation
iv) Dealing with Project Disasters
e). Risk Response Planning
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f). Risk Monitoring and Control
g). The Risk Management Register
Teaching Tips
Like many subjects in project management, this topic will benefit from a good example.
One way to provide it is to do an in-class planning exercise. To prepare this exercise the
instructor needs to select a project. Everyone in the class should be familiar with this
project. If a specialized technical topic is chosen (e.g. refueling a nuclear power plant),
then all the class members may not be able to fully participate due to their lack of
knowledge in the subject. I have had success with picking smaller, more accessible topics
that are familiar to a wide range of students. Specifically, I have used “Planning a
company picnic” for the exercise. While it may not sound very interesting on the surface,
the picnic has some surprising complications that the students will discover during the
planning process.
To begin the exercise the instructor give the class some background information about
their pretend company and a very brief description of the project. The description is
deliberately brief to simulate the typically meager direction that management supplies in
these circumstances. The students work in pairs to brainstorm the outline of the project
plan trying to answer key questions like:
What is the purpose of the project?
Who are its customers?
What constraints are imposed by the company?
The process of answering these questions forces students to ask a lot of questions which
the instructor, as the “sponsor” should answer. This gives the instructor a lot of
opportunities to emphasize the idea that the early project formation process is one
dominated by questions intended to reveal the sponsor’s and customer’s true
requirements.
As the authors of the text correctly point out, there are many formats available for project
plan deliverables. If the instructor does not have a preferred format to use for this
exercise, Martin and Tate describe a method, one that I have found useful, called the
Project Management Memory Jogger™. This tiny book can be an excellent supplement
to the text by presenting a number of specific formats for planning deliverables.
Material Review Questions
Question 1:
APM is distinguished by close and continuing contact between clients (users) and staff
working on the project, and an iterative and adaptive planning process. This approach is
best suited for situations in which the scope of the project cannot be sufficiently
determined in advance. The scope is progressively determined as the project progresses.
Question 2:
Refer to Section 6.1 in the text. The eight key elements of any project charter are:
9. Chapter 6 - Instructor’s Resource Guide to
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1) Purpose: The purpose contains a brief summary of the project’s scope and its
objectives.
2) Objectives: The objectives should reflect how the project would satisfy
requirements in the dimensions of performance, time, cost, and customer
satisfaction. Objectives should also be set with respect to business impact and
future growth potential.
3) Overview: This section will describe the managerial and technical approaches
used to complete the project.
4) Schedules: The master schedule will be derived from the individual schedules for
resources. Milestones will be used to indicate significant events in the project’s
lifecycle.
5) Resources: The project’s budget will document both capital expenses and
operating expenses by task. The procedures for cost monitoring and control will
also be described.
6) Personnel: This section covers the types and quantities of human resources
needed to complete the project. It should document unique requirements related to
issues such as security clearances, skill sets, EOE, and local content issues related
to hiring and ownership practices.
7) Risk Management Plans: This section describes how uncertainty will be managed
in the project. Its intent is to identify opportunities and threats. Contingency plans
are developed to respond to important risk events should they arise during the
project’s lifecycle
8) Evaluation Methods: This section describes the monitoring and control
procedures used to run the project and to assess its success.
Question 3:
Refer to Sections 6.3 and 6.2 in the text. The general steps for managing each work
package in a specific project are:
1) Decompose the work packages into the smallest work elements necessary to plan,
budget, schedule, and control the work. When sequencing project activities,
logical relationships and direct costs are often driven by the activities inside the
work package.
2) Create a work statement that includes inputs, specification references, contractual
stipulations, and expected performance results. It may prove useful to construct
the Linear Responsibility Chart (LRC) to document which resource is responsible
for each activity in the work package.
3) List contact information for vendors and subcontractors.
4) For work that is new, difficult, or important, establish detailed end-item
specifications.
5) Establish cost centers to assign budget responsibilities and to track performance
against plans. Assign the appropriate types and quantities of resources to each
work center.
6) Establish the activity durations and logical relationships. Develop a preliminary
project schedule.
7) Review the WBS, activity lists, budget, and schedules with the resources that will
perform the work.
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Question 4:
The “even planning process” is a hierarchical approach to decompose deliverables during
the processes of scope definition and activity definition. (See PMBOK® Guide Third
Edition sections 5.3 and 6.1.). The goal is that each level of the hierarchy has elements at
about the same level of detail. One purpose is to prevent overplanning the familiar, while
under planning the unfamiliar parts of the project.
Question 5:
The RACI matrix shows the tasks to be performed, the groups doing the work, and who
should be responsible, accountable, informed, and consulted. With the RACI matrix the
PM can keep up with who must approve what, who must be notified, and other such
relationships.
Question 6:
Refer to Section 6.1 in the text. The project’s launch meeting should accomplish the
following goals:
1) The technical scope for the project is established.
2) Participants accept responsibility for specific areas of performance.
3) Tentative, high-level schedules, and budgets are established.
4) A risk management group is created for the project.
Question 7:
Refer to Section 6.1 in the project. Involving functional areas in proposal development
may help an organization to avoid promising deliverables and/or performance that cannot
be delivered to the customer. This involvement is important in winning support for the
project from the people who are likely to loan the resources. In many cases, those
resources would like to provide input about what will be done, how it will be done, how
it will be priced, and when it will be accomplished.
Question 8:
Refer to Section 6.4 in the text. To design and use the WBS, the basic steps are:
1) Decompose the action plan in sufficient detail so that each activity can be
individually planned, budgeted, scheduled, monitored, and controlled.
2) For each WBS work package, create a LRC.
3) Review the work packages with the responsible resources prior to aggregating the
activities for the project.
4) Convert the WBS into a Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) that includes budget
data for direct costs, indirect costs, contingency reserves, and profit.
5) Create the master schedule.
6) Capture actual costs and schedule performance and track against the baselines for
budget and schedule.
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Question 9:
Refer to Section 6.5 in the text. Interface management seeks to facilitate the process of
coordinating dynamic relationships between the various elements to assist the project in
meeting objectives for performance, time, and cost.
Question 10:
Refer to the Introduction in the text. The Project Plan is the complete set of documents
and data used to describe the project objectives, method, schedule and budget. The
Project Charter is the subset of the overall plan that concentrates on the schedule and
required resources. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is the subset of the plan that
displays a decomposition of the work to be executed by the project.
Question 11:
Milestones are natural sub-project ending points where payments may occur, evaluations
may be made, or progress may be reassessed. Phase-gates are preplanned points during
the project where progress is assessed and the project cannot resume until re-
authorization has been approved.
Question 12:
A risk matrix is constructed by placing the impact of threats on one axis and the
probability of those threats occurring on the other axis (see Figure 6-12). Threats in the
upper-right quadrant are more “critical” than those in the other quadrants.
Question 13:
A decision tree is useful to a project manager when sequential events happen over time.
In these cases, the PM can look at the probabilities that a certain sequence of events will
occur and their potential impact on the project.
Question 14:
FMEA tables can be more valuable than a risk matrix because they consider the inability
to detect the risk in addition to the probability and impact. Because of this they provide
more value.
Question 15:
The cause-effect diagram should be broken down into as many subfactors as possible.
With more subfactors, a better understanding of the factors that affect a particular threat
or opportunity can be achieved.
Question 16:
The risk responses for threats (avoid, transfer, mitigate, and accept) are generally
designed to minimize or eliminate the risk from the threats. Risk responses for
opportunities (exploit, share, enhance, and accept) are generally designed to maximize
the opportunity if it occurs.
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Class Discussion Questions
Question 17:
The amount of planning should be proportionate to the degree of newness, importance,
and difficulty associated with realizing the required solution for an unique need.E.g:
Constructing a standard 1,800 square-foot residential home should require less planning
than that required to build the same house from scratch in less than four hours. (The San
Diego Builders Association did this feat as a promotional project. The four-hour
execution of the project required almost nine months to plan.) Instead of using
percentages, the basic concept is that plans should be as brief and simple provided that
they adequately direct the team to what needs to be done each day to support the project.
Question 18:
In the military, there is a saying that, “No plan survives its first encounter with the
enemy.” Therefore, even the best of plans should be adjusted to the reality of the project
as it unfolds. This juggling of activities and resources across groups is a real-time activity
that is usually done without a lot of detailed information or analysis. The coordination is
made more difficult by the inevitable problems in communication that occur in even the
best-run projects.
Question 19:
The areas of risk need to be relevant to the project. Unfortunately, we can think of many
things that are “risky” in our lives, but they aren’t necessarily relevant to a particular
project. The PMBOK®
Guide Third Edition describes typical categories to consider risk
in as:
• Technical
• External
• Organizational
• Project Management
Question 20:
The WBS is probably one of the most useful project planning tools. It identifies the work
required to provide the project’s deliverables. It provides a framework for identifying
direct costs and resource requirements. Rolling up individual budgets through the
structure of the WBS can capture the total budget. The project schedule can be displayed
as a Gantt chart where each line is mapped directly to the WBS. Actual data can be
captured in project management software using the WBS table to enter actual cost and
schedule performance data.
Question 21:
Subdividing activities for a WBS involves a layer by layer breakdown of activities. PMs
should first divide the project into the main-level set of activities and then break each of
those levels down even further. This should continue until each activity is broken down
into its smallest activity. It is important to get as much input as possible from
stakeholders because getting the WBS built as well as possible can result in significant
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dividends as the project progresses due to numerous other deliverables that evolve from
it.
Question 22:
Usually, the plan frames the project in a manner that helps the team prepare for the
challenges that lay ahead. It is not so important that the team create the perfect project
plan. However, it is important that the plan raises the level of understanding about what
must be done to achieve a successful implementation that solves real needs. The plan
should also provide a reference point that the team can use to make course adjustments as
work progresses. Ultimately the plan must provide sufficient guidance so that every
member of the team knows what they should be doing each day to contribute to the
success of the project.
Something to think about: Have you ever taken a vacation without first deciding on a
destination?
Question 23:
Refer to Section 6.1 in the text.
Pros: Involving functional areas in proposal development may help an organization to
avoid promising deliverables and/or performance that cannot be delivered to the
customer. This involvement is important in winning support for the project from the
people who are likely to loan the resources. In many cases, those resources would like to
provide input about what will be done, how it will be done, how it will be priced, and
when it will be accomplished.
Cons: It is conceivable that some otherwise qualified managers and technical specialists
will not possess strong relationship management skills and/or a willingness to participate
in interdisciplinary approaches to solving problems. Such people could sabotage
negotiations in subtle ways by objecting to parameters or by using blocking techniques
that create fear, uncertainty or doubt about a project’s success. It is also difficult to
identify credibly the proper economic trade-off between early involvement and delayed
participation of functional specialists.
Question 24:
In general, this would be an unethical thing to do. The PM should demonstrate a little
more maturity by confronting the problem head-on rather than trying to cover it up with
tricks. An important consideration is Fred’s contribution to the project. If he is notified
because, in spite of his difficult attitude, he has something to contribute, then the PM is
not only unethical, he is stupid to bypass him. If he is difficult and does not add value (a
dynamite combination!), then the PM should bypass him and have the courage to look
Fred in the eye and tell him why he was ignored for that particular task. A manager,
whom I respect, once told me when I was faced with a difficult team member, “You have
got to talk to him. Maybe nobody ever told him that he was a jerk.”
Question 25:
The simplest way to plan for an unknown risk is to add a buffer. This can be both for the
schedule and the budget. This buffer should be visible to all concerned; not hidden as
padding in individual activities. Eli Goldratt recommends establishing a project time
buffer that is adjusted as the project unfolds (this is discussed at length in Chapter 9). The
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team knows that the buffer has gotten smaller if they are running behind, and larger if
they are ahead. Similarly it is a common practice on large defense projects to establish a
“Management Reserve.” This is a portion of the total project budget that is deliberately
held in reserve against unknown scope variation. Another technique is the designation of
selected experts to handle the problems as they arise. This can be coupled with a well-
defined escalation process, in which the designated people at appropriate levels in the
organization are notified based on the nature and severity of the problem.
Question 26:
Milestones and phase-gates may occur at the same time in some instances because phase-
gates can be considered milestones. In other cases they can occur at different times
because milestones can be used to see if the project is “on track” while phase-gates can
be utilized to determine if the project should continue to the next phase.
Question 27:
Agile project management was developed because of an increasing number of projects, in
which the scope of the project was not sufficiently determined in advance and thus, the
scope is progressively determined as the project progresses. I do believe that this
approach will continue to be increasingly utilized in future projects due to the continuing
number of projects where project scope cannot be accurately determined up-front.
Question 28:
Risk matrices and FEMA tables are extremely useful in analyzing the impacts of threats.
Each one helps in identifying the threats that cause the most concern. In addition, they
can be used to analyze the portfolio of projects in relation to their risk structure.
Question 29:
Decision and probability trees are similar. If we are only interested in probabilities, we
call the tree a probability tree. But if there are some actions we are considering anywhere
along the tree—before the first probability event, say, or between events—and we want
to evaluate which action(s) would be the best, then it is called a decision tree.
Each can be used by PMs to help determine the likelihood of certain events from
occurring. The decision tree is generally more valuable because it has a broader value.
can be used to analyze the portfolio of projects in relation to their risk structure.
Question 30:
A cause-effect chart could be used for two risks concurrently. The end “problem” would
be the result of both occurring concurrently.
Question 31:
Risk responses to threats and opportunities are more important for a particular PM
depending on their level of risk tolerance. For those who are risk-averse, they might be
inclined to think the risk responses for threats are more important and vice versa for those
PMs who are risk-seeking.
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Beagle 2 Mars Probe a Planning Failure
Question 32:
The tasks and changes in the tasks facing the project team with a fast approaching launch
window were extremely difficult. The PM should have recommended cancelling the
project and substituting it with something else.
Question 33:
The recommendations are all extremely important, certainly relevant to all projects, and
makes common sense. The problem, however, was more difficult than these
commonsense recommendations imply. If an expensive rocket launch is being readied for
a particular date and the date can’t be changed, would you really want to cancel the
probe? If so, why send up an empty rocket? Something needs to be added to the
recommendations concerning a backup probe, or a de-scoped probe, in case of trouble.
Clearly there wasn’t sufficient time, so something about a long lead time might be added
when the due date cannot be delayed.
Child Support Software a Victim of Scope Creep
Question 34:
Commonly, with the design of software systems, the customer wants changes as the
software is being written, which requires extensive rework and checking for ramifications
of each change throughout the system. This takes a lot of time and extra labor.
Apparently, this happened here as the customer kept requesting scope changes which the
customer considered to be minor but the vendor considered them to be major changes.
Unfortunately, the vendor didn’t inform the customer about the difficulty of making
changes during the project, or provide a process for handling such requested changes.
Question 35:
It appears that the software has been completed but now operates slower than that was
promised, possibly due to the scope changes. The customer and vendor need to talk about
the possibility of making additional changes that would help the customer in the most
efficient way, which may include disabling some of the options and scope changes
requested previously.
Shanghai Unlucky with Passengers
Question 36:
Luck had nothing to do with it. The problem was that the train was accessible only from a
difficult location for the customers in the business center. The system that was
implemented did not meet the original need.
Question 37:
We assume that there was an external reason for getting this exceptional train operational
in a short time period and service for businesspeople was a minor consideration. It could
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be that the original cost and time estimates were significantly wrong, so they were only
able to get it as close as they did to the city center.
China is now extending the train to the downtown business center, but it will take much
longer to complete.
Risk Analysis vs. Budget/Schedule Requirements in Australia
Question 38:
Meeting schedule and budget goals are certainly important, but other metrics are
important as well when it comes to project success. Although many people do think
primarily of schedule and budget goals, scope and quality goals can be just as important.
Specific to this example, had they considered quality issues, they would have created a
better system. After learning about all nine of the project management knowledge areas
as specified by the Project Management Institute, students will learn that each one is
equally important in managing projects.
Question 39:
An appropriate risk analysis approach would have been to use a quantitative method such
as simulation. Had this been done properly, the officials would have seen what would
happen with a significant increase in traffic beyond what was projected. This could have
shown them what might happen and then forced them to develop a system to comfortably
handle the increased traffic and/or to create a higher quality system.
Using Agile to Integrate Two Gas Pipeline Systems
Question 40:
The client was not on this team because it was an internal project.
Question 41:
Aspects of agile used:
1) Frequent, stand-up meetings with subteams
2) Weekly meetings with the entire team
3) Iterative and adaptive planning throughout the project
Aspects of agile not used:
1) A test case
2) Sprints
Question 42:
Agile management is not beneficial for most standard projects because agile projects
cannot accurately predict cost and time estimates for the duration of the project. Since,
most projects request funding in advance, agile processes would not be able to provide
those estimates.
An Acquisition Failure Questions Recommended Practice
Question 43:
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Long project durations in all industries lead to conflicts and project problems. A good
example is the Denver Airport Baggage Handling System. This project was so big and
poorly managed that it took a significant amount of additional time and money to
complete the project. In general, larger projects take much more planning and
coordination efforts while also increasing the likelihood of project management related
concerns.
Question 44:
One of the main problems was that a decision wasn’t made early enough in the project
regarding what to do. Had they determined that, all systems would have been merged into
one of the existing company’s systems and they would have had a better chance of
success. Too much time was spent analyzing the problem without ever getting to the
design phase.
Question 45:
The BMP solution worked because it eliminated the analysis phase of the decision-
making and forced the teams into the development phase. A compromised system might
have been possible, but the risk of continuing with the same problems they encountered
after the initial merger could have occurred too.
Ignoring Risk Contrasted with Recognizing Risk in Two Industries
Question 46:
The reasons why BP took such a relaxed attitude toward the Gulf well compared to
NASA is really a mystery. BP really should have been just as serious, perhaps even more,
since the environmental damage caused by the leak was so extensive. In addition, it could
have easily been prevented this with better planning.
Question 47:
I don’t think the oil industry has funded significant research in this area because they
believe the odds that it wouldn’t happen. Since, the R&D investment would be so
significant for something that was just a possibility (not a certainty), then it must have
been worth the risk.
Question 48:
Again, there really isn’t a good reason why BP didn’t do this right either. With proper
planning, a contingency plan could have been in place already that indicated what to do
and what to say if something like this happened. Hopefully, all companies in the oil
industry learned from this and will be more prepared next time.
Question 49:
NASA’s approach to risk analysis is thorough as it should be. One component on the
space shuttle that goes bad can cause an entire launch to be aborted or can cause the
shuttle to explode, as we have seen. Thus, their approach is thorough and would include
minimum techniques such as decision tree analysis and expert judgment. FMEA is a good
example of what an organization can do to understand the risk levels associated with a
project.
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Facebook Risks Interruption to Move a Terabyte
Question 50:
Although students may be able to make good arguments both ways, I would consider the
completion of the first hardware phase a phase-gate review because if building the
hardware took too long and/or was too costly, it may be necessary to stop the project
before going any further. In addition, they could determine that it just isn’t technically
feasible to progress any further.
Question 51:
The risk responses Facebook used are as follows:
1) Avoidance: With regards to avoiding the problems associated with loading the
data onto the equipment before the move
2) Mitigation: Selecting the option to transfer the data via a network as opposed to
loading it on the equipment before the move
3) Acceptance: A certain amount of risk was assumed even before transferring the
data across the larger network
4) Exploit: The move itself to the larger faster network
5) Enhance: The move itself to the larger faster network
Question 52:
Facebook could have also considered other approaches to handle the risks such as using
all of the seven subprocesses related to risk. These include:
1) Risk management planning
2) Risk identification
3) Qualitative risk analysis
4) Quantitative risk analysis
5) Risk response planning
6) Risk monitoring and control
7) Creating a risk management register
Trying to Install a Wind Farm in the Middle of the North Sea
Question 53:
The difficulties and risks in this case study were much less significant than with the
NASA example. Although both cases highlighted major risks, they were different in each
case. In this example (Wind Farms), many of the risks involved having everything ready
before being shipped to location. In addition, if there were any problems, they had to
come up with a solution as soon as possible and they did this by involving multi-
disciplinary teams.
Question 54:
It was imperative to have the correct competencies and dependabilities on the teams.
Without these two criteria solving problems would have been much more painful and
finding solutions would have been much more difficult.
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Question 55:
Students’ answers are expected to vary considerably based upon their background and the
choice of the WBS method.
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Problems
Problem 1:
Problem
1:Problem
1:Probability
7
6
Threat 2
5
Threat 1
4
Threat 4
3
Threat 3
2
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Impact
Legend:
Critical
Monitor
Ignore
Threat 1: The threat of costs being excessive could occur. Actually, the probability is
somewhat high. This can be transferred to an outsourcing provider to help reduce this
threat.
Threat 2: The likelihood of the users resisting changes could cause major problems. This
is somewhat likely to happen, but can be avoided if they are given an alternative and
consulted in advance.
Threat 3: The project may run longer than expected. This isn’t highly likely, but this can
be transferred by outsourcing the project.
Threat 4: The changes may reduce the quality of care in the hospital. The probability is
satisfactory because the improvements brought about by the new system may not be
significant. If the quality decreases, the impact could be fairly significant, thus the
hospital may need to mitigate this threat by including more users in the planning.
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Problem 2:
Threat Severity Likelihood Inability
to detect
RPN
#1 3 5 4 60
#2 5 6 1 30
#3 4 3 3 36
#4 7 4 6 168
The main thing that changes when using this approach is that threat #2 drops significantly
from “critical” to possibly “ignore.” This is mostly due to the lack of inability to detect.
Threat #2 is somewhat severe and the likelihood is great, but since the threat is relatively
easy to detect, it can be mitigated early and possibly even removed. Thus, this is a much
more realistic evaluation of the threats than just creating a risk matrix.
Problem 3:
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Problem 4:
Based on the analysis, the manufacturer should approve the purchase of the high-quality,
special equipment for $10,000. As a result, significant savings should occur.
Problem 5:
a1, a3 decision = (0.7 $3,000) + (0.3 $2,000) – $500 = $2,200
a1, a4 decision = (0.7 $1,000) + (0.3 $2,000) – $500 = $800
a2, a5 decision = (0.4 $2,150) + (0.6 $3,000) – $1,000= $1,660
a2, a6 decision = (0.4 $2,150) + (0.6 $4,000) – $1,000= $2,260
Based on this analysis, the best option is a2, a6.
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Problem 6:
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
5
4
3
3
1
2
2
1
1 2 3 4 5
Impact
Legend:
Critical
Monitor
Ignore
Opportunity 1:
You could “accept” this risk and enjoy the benefits derived from it. To increase the
potential for more impact, you could enhance the risk by providing more training.
Opportunity 2:
You could “accept” this risk and enjoy the benefits derived from it. To increase the
potential for more impact, you could further exploit the database.
Opportunity 3:
You could “accept” this risk and enjoy the benefits derived from it. To increase the
potential for more impact, you could share the data by increasing sales.
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Incidents for Discussion
Ringold’s Pool and Patio Supply
This is a good opportunity to engage the class in a discussion of the importance of
involving the team in developing plans and schedules. One way to do this is to engage the
class in collectively creating the upper level or two of a WBS for the project. Chances are
they will come up with several items that Junior missed in his, demonstrating the danger
of working alone.
John Sr. is asking a reasonable question, but his son is giving him a defective answer.
Even though Junior’s WBS looks very precise, it would be dangerous to base any
decision on it. Since, it has not been validated by anyone who has actual experience in
installing pools, there is no way of knowing if the estimates are reasonable, or even if it
has accounted for all the work. Junior has made no effort to evaluate the requirements of
the job. For example, he doesn’t list in his WBS anything related to permitting, electrical
or plumbing. In addition to these concerns, John Sr. must consider several business issues
including whether his company has the staff, skills, and equipment to take on this new
area. He needs to consider whether this expansion matches his long-term goals for the
business.
Stacee Laboratories
With adult professional students, this incident can lead to a lively discussion of the
involvement of other areas in a highly technical project. There will no doubt be many
opinions both pro and con on the involvement of areas, like marketing in a project that is
primarily a technical one. The students will probably have stories that will illustrate that,
in the long run, the involvement of other areas will make a project team stronger.
Ms. Tasha is only partially right. She is mixing together two different issues in her
recommendations. One way to understand the issues involved would be to map the
interfaces that would exist in this new environment. I suspect that mapping would show
that her concerns about the involvement of the toxicity and efficacy group are well taken.
They need to participate in the project from early on to understand the nature of the drug
being developed and to also allow them to pre-plan their part of the project. Advice from
this group could be valuable in reducing the number of dead ends that the research group
pursues. On the other hand, it could be a mistake to involve the marketing department
early on in each project. While they could get a head start on analyzing potential markets,
there is nothing to market until the end, and they cannot contribute to the identification of
new drugs. Ms. Tasha has missed an opportunity, however, to recommend a better
portfolio management process. Big Pharma does this quite well, as they have far more
leads for new drugs than the resources to pursue them. In a portfolio management
process, marketing’s involvement would be essential as they contribute to the decision of
what areas to pursue new drugs in. Once the project has been launched, however, they
should limit their involvement till the end.
Scope creep is probably more of a danger, if the researchers are working by themselves
and others just participate. A good way to help prevent it is to insure that there is an
adequate definition of the requirements at the beginning, and strong project planning and
control during the process. Students will typically object to this notion because their
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instinct is that a research project cannot be closely controlled. This is an opportunity to
point out that the process can and should be controlled, even if the outcomes cannot.
Case: Heublein: Project Management and Control System
Question 1:
A number of the project planning aids described in the chapter are used in the case.
Among them are versions of the:
• Project Plan
• Action Plans
• Work Breakdown Structure
• Project Master Schedule
• Linear Responsibility Chart
Question 2:
The Project Plan in this case was similar, but different, than the Project Charter in the
chapter of the text. The sections of each are included below:
Project Plan elements
(from case)
Project Charter elements
(from chapter)
Introduction Purpose
Project Objectives Objectives
Project/Program Structure Overview
Project/Program Costs Schedules
Network Resources
Schedule Personnel
Resource Allocation Risk Management Plans
Organization and Accountability Evaluation Methods
Control System
Milestones or Project Subdivisions
Question 3:
The WBS in the case is in a different format than the one described in the chapter. The
case WBS is in an indented (textual) format as opposed to the tree (graphical) format
included in the chapter.
The accountability matrices differ as well. The matrix in the chapter uses different types
of responsibilities (Responsible, Consult, Inform, and Accountable) than the matrix in the
case (Initiate/Responsibility, Approve, and Provide input). It is important to note that
organizations must choose the types of responsibilities that best fit the needs of their
particular projects.
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Question 4:
This project and the Project Portfolio Process described in Chapter 2 are two different
elements of the overall project management process. The Portfolio Process in Chapter 2
is a method for selecting which project should be executed. The project described in this
case assumes that the project has already been selected. It is describing the
implementation of a consistent methodology for the planning, scheduling and execution
of all capital projects across the corporation.
Question 5:
The previous focus on cost-benefit only addressed one aspect of the project management
process and only in a limited way. The corporation used a cost-benefit analysis technique
to select the capital projects to execute. It found, however, that even though they may
have selected the right project, they did not achieve their goals because the execution of
the project was poor. The case doesn’t say that cost-benefit analysis is no longer used for
project selection, instead if focuses on the elements implemented after the project is
selected. The new process insures that costs are collected during project execution so
that they can be compared to the performance benefits of the project.
Question 6:
Changes in the way depreciation is calculated would change the cost-benefit for the
installation of capital equipment. Without knowing the exact changes in the law, it’s
reasonable to assume that the changes were not favorable to the corporation, making the
equipment relatively more expensive. This would increase the importance of success for
each capital project and help justify the new system.
Reading: Planning For Crises in Project Management
Question 1:
Planning is an activity that consumes costly resources that are often overwhelmed by the
need to perform prescribed tasks within a time-constrained schedule. In this constrained
environment, it’s easy to drop tasks that involve thinking about something that probably
won’t happen anyway. Task oriented people want to get started and figure that they will
handle whatever comes up, just as they have in the past. Unfortunately, this is an
expensive and risky way to manage, particularly as projects get larger and more complex.
Question 2:
Yes, the tools would be of value because the Iceland example is talking about real threats
to life and property. In particular, contingency planning, logic charts, and tabletop
exercises would be quite useful.
Question 3:
Scenario analysis is similar to risk analysis, but does not anticipate a preplanned response
should a risk event occur. Nevertheless, if the outcome of a scenario is unfavorable,
contingency plans could be developed to alter the expected outcome identified in the
scenario analysis.
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Question 4:
Contingency planning probably has the most value to the project management
environment. The logic chart would probably be easiest to use, assuming that
contingency plans had already been developed.
Question 5:
The most important recommendation is to do risk analysis. The identification of risks
relevant to the project coupled with their impact and probability is the gateway to all
subsequent actions. Once these relevant risks have been identified, then the magnitude
and necessity of subsequent risk related activities could be evaluated. However, people
will only do what they have practiced, so tabletop exercises are mandatory as well.
29. Liperin kreikanuskoiset. He siirtyisivät kaikki, väitetään,
luteerilaiseen kirkkoon, jos asetukset sen sallisivat. Kreikanuskoinen
pappi: "Hän tulee kun hukka minun lampaisiin." [Tämä ja muut
lainausmerkkien väliset lauseet tämän kappaleen loppuun asti
tällaisinaan muistiinpanoissa.] — "A minä en tule sinun lampahiin,
vaan lampahat kun hyö ei tunne oman paimenensa ääntä; tulevat
vieraan luoksi." Nykyään ei Taipaleen pappi kuulu ymmärtävän
sanaakaan suomea, vielä vähemmän osaavan sitä puhua. Kuitenkin
hänellä Synoodissa kuuluu olleen suomalaiselta opettajalta todistus
että hän osasi. Vähä seurakunnalla siis on hänestä hyötyä, vaikkapa
olisi raitiskin, mikä ei kuulu olevan laita. Kreikanuskoon kääntyneistä
on ainoana esimerkkinä muuan tyttö. Hänen sisarensa oli naimisissa
erään kreikanuskoisen kanssa, ja hän itse joutui toisen veljen kanssa
kihloihin. Mutta kreikkalaisen kirkon sääntöjen mukaan häntä ei voitu
vihkiä. Sitä ei sallittu, koska pappi oli ajoissa saanut ilmoituksen
luteerilaiselta papilta. Majuri Nilsson houkutteli hänet kääntymään
kreikanuskoon, jonka hän tekikin toivossa, että pappi asianlaitaa
tuntematta heidät vihkisi. Mutta kreikanuskoisen papin, joka sai
tiedon heimolaisuudesta, oli nyt varsin mahdoton sitä tehdä. Nyt
tyttö kuuluu kauheasti katuvan tekoaan. — Monet kreikanuskoiset
kuuluvat tahtovan viekkaudellakin kastattaa lapsensa luteerilaiseen
oppiin, niin että pappein on tarkoin oltava varuillaan. Olisipa, jos
asiata raha-asiana katselisi, joku, vaikkapa vähäpätöinen voittokin
päästää nämä kreikanuskoiset siirtymään luteerilaiseen taikka
vapaasti valitsemaan kreikkalainen tai luteerilainen tunnustus.
Moniaasta kreikanuskoisesta talonpojasta oli tullut "herännyt".
Papille valitettiin hänen valattaneen pyhimystenkuvansa
("jumalaisensa") lehmänkelloksi. Pappi tulee hänen huoneeseensa,
menee ristinmerkin teolle ja huomaa kuvan. "Piessat, kun
valeheltiin." — "Kumarrate!" — "Kyllä kun näytättä Pipliasta sen
30. paikan, missä käsketään." — "Onko sinulla pipliita?" — "Saan lainaksi
naapurista." Pappi ei laskenut lainaksi ottam[aan]. Lupais toiste
koissaan näyttää, vaan ajo pois talonpojan kun mäni kysymään.
"Eikö se ole hupelo, joka heittää oman peltose, ja menee vieraalle
työhön?" — "On." — "Ei, kun oma on laiha eikä kasva mitän edl."
54.
Lehtori Keckmanille.
(Alk. suomeksi.)
Sortavalassa 31 Elokuuta 1837.
Oiva Veljeni!
Kirjasi tänne tultuani käsitin. Kiitän Sinua toimistasi niissä asioissa,
joilla jälkimmäinen Kajaanista keväillä työtty kirjani tuli Sinua
vaivaamaan. Niin kyllä taitaa olla, ettei Mehiläiselle saa kahdeksi
vuodeksi välitoimittajata, jonka tähden, jos ei ketä saisi, taidan itse
kokea, vaikka tulevatki muut toimeni sen kautta jälkeen jäämään.
Vähettyä ottajain lukua en justin pelkää, koska jo heti työhön
ryhtyessäni päätin omista varoistani panna noin korkeinta 200 ruplaa
pränttikulujen avuksi, jos muuten eivät tulisi täyteen. Ja sillä
summalla hoti pääsenki selväksi, jos tulevana vuonna en pränttäytä
usiampaa kappaletta, kun mitä suorastaan ottajille menee. —
Ilahuttava asia oli kirjassasi lukea, jo Sophokliai suomeksi käätyn.
Kolmesta näytteeksi pannustasi värsystä on kolmas. "Rukoiliain
oliivalehviä kantaen" — minusta somimmin kuuluva, toisissa pidän
31. vikana, että siitelmä, riennätte ovat loppulyhyitä, kun minusta pitäisi
olla keskilyhyitä eli alkupitkiä, jotta kuuluisivat esim. näin: "Oi! lapset
muinas Kadmon uusi siittämä (siittelö, kantama), mit' ootta istuimille
näille rientävät (rientäneet, joutuvat, -neet, kokoutuneet edl.)." Mitat
tässä värsylajissa Greekalaisilla, jos oikein muistelen, olivat: x | — x |
— kolme kertaa perätysten pantuna eli: x | — x | — x | — x | — x |
x johon tahtiin Roomalaiset monellaki tavalla sommittelivat
sanojansa ja samate taidettaisi ehkä meidänki kielessä tehdä, jotta
kuten kullonki tulisivat juoksemaan. Niin olisi avara tila suomen
sanoilla tässä värsylajissa eikä tulisi värsy niinkään poikkeamaan
alkuluonnostaan, kun Latinalaisilla Terentiolla, Plautolla, Phaedralla
edl. — Renvallin kirjan sain Prof. Linseeniltä lähetettynä. Jopa
näyttää joutaviin ruvenneen, Savolaisten ja Karjalaisten kielitapaa
moittimaan, jota ei hyväsesti taida tuntea'kan. Sillä missäpä koko
Suomessa sanotaan mähtä, mätsä (s. 7 ja 9), missä: myö tulloon,
olioon (s. 9), missä, missä isähän, isään pro isänsä (isäsä, isäse') s.
9. — Siv. 8, r. 1-11 selittää hän peräti omalla tavallaan, minkä tähden
Savon ja Karjalan kieli olisi länsisuomea kehnompi, eikä muista että
justin Länsisuomi oli Ruotsin, Viron ja Saksanki vaiheilla, joista
helposti puuttui vieraita aineita, jota vaston Itäsuomella meidän
maan Savossa ja Karjalassa oli toisella puolella Hämeen Suomi ja
toisella laajat Venäjän Karjalan, Aunuksen ja Inkerin maat, joissa
vieläki puhutaan semmoista kieltä, että erähät pitävät yhtä selvänä
ja hyvänä kun Hämeenki kielen. Siv. 9, r. 8 lanka on villoista, rihma
pellavista eli hampuista kehrätty; viitsiä' taas on Hämeen sana, joka
kyllä yli koko maan ymmärretään ja toisinaan käytetäänki, ehkä
usiammasti: kehata'. Kehata merkitsee: olla hidas työssä eli
liikunnassa ja kehno, hidas, joka sanan alkumieli sitte on kahtia
eronnut, jotta Häm. en kehtaa jag täcks icke, kehno, blyg; Karj. en
kehtaa, jag ides ej, kehno dålig; vaan sillä mielellä, kun Hämeessä
32. sanotaan en kehtaa (jäg täcks icke), sanovat Karjalassa: en julkia'
(julkea, julkii', julkee'), eikä millonkaan (?) samalla mielellä en viitsi
(viiti, viihi), joka aina(?) on = en kehtaa. Renvallista näyttää, kun en
viitsi, karj. merkitsisi; jag täcks icke. — Siv. 20, r. 6-3 alalta. En tiedä,
jos siinä luettava soimuu sopii Grottlundiinkan, joka kuitenki
enimmästä on Savon kielestä huolta pideksellyt, mitä eritteessä
(noten) vielä samasta asiasta lausuu, koskee kaikitse'ki enimmästi
itseen lausujaan, — S. 21, r. 19. Ensimmäinen selvä ja suora
Kielioppi saatiin Suomessa von Bekkeriltä, joka ei seurannut erittäin
Hämeen eli Karjalan kieltä, vaan rinnakkaa kumpaaki, vaikka hänki
muutamissa kohti on tainnut erehtyä, esimerk. selvityksessään
koskevasta Caritavus casus, jossa rupiaa Lapin kielen avulla
näyttämään, että sitä tulee kirjottaa yhdellä Teellä t ei kahdella tt —
luvata ei luvatta. Minkäpä tähden siis sanotaan luvattoman,
luvattomalla edl. kahdella Teellä, jos ei Caritiv. alkusesti olisi ollut
luvatta? Nykynen usiammissa paikoissa käyvä luvata näyttää sillä
tavoin syntyneen, että alkuperäistä luvatta on ruvettu itsepäällänsä
käyttämään (tekliineeraamaan), josta sitte Muutuntasiassa (Lokat.
formal.) on saatu luvataksi, luvatak samate kun edemmäksi,
edernmä', taemmaksi, taemma' edl. Niin on myös Lausukkain
Käskentätavassa (Imperativ) Hämeen tapaan seottanut Käskentä- ja
Toivontatavan, vaan niistäpä ei nyt ollutkan virkettava, jonka tähden
taas ryhdyn Renvallin kirjottamaan. Siv. 23, r. 1-3 mitä hän tuosta
mixtum compositumista Bekkeri miettinee, itse Mehiläisen ja muiden
kirjotusteni suhteen kyllä sen voinki kärsiä, koska en aina ole'kan
tullut yhdellä tavalla yhtä sanaa eripaikoissa kirjottamaan, vaikka,
mitä s. 23, r. 12, 13 R. siitä asiasta lausuu, useinki tulee siitä syystä,
että on eri kirjottajilta kirjotettu tuloo, tulee, vuoen, vuoden ja
runossa härän, muissa härjän edl,, jonka kyllä hänki olis voinut älytä,
kun muuten olis tahtonut. — S. 26, r. 8 edl. alalta lukien. Renvalli ei
33. näytä vähää hyvänä pitävän, kun ei kohta saa kaikkia, ei huoli
yhdestä eli kahdesta talosta, kun ei samassa saa koko kylää. Vaan
mintäpä pitkitän kirjani näillä lauseilla, koska itse paremmin näät
Renvallin uuden kirjan mielen, laadun ja luonnon. Mitä III:ssa jaossa
erittäin minua vastaan kirjottaa, niin siitä saan sanoa vanhan
sanaparren: adhuc sub judice lis est (ratkaistu ei viel ole riita).
Samalla tavalla kun Heksametrosta saapi: "minlai nensuku lehtilö
jensepon ihmisi enki" saa hän, jos tahtoo, tavallisista
nelimittarunoistaki esimerk. "Suoja | rahti | maata | rähti, kangas |
vasta | hanka | lahti" sen laisia katkaistuja sanoja. Niihin sopii myös
s. 32, r. 16 tehty kysymyksensä: "Ovatko Suomea?" Mitä s. 32, r. 21-
26 inttää, ei taida niin toden tosi olla, kun R. luulee. Jos puhuisi
kaikista niistä kielistä, joiden pitkäarvoset tavuet myös ovat
korolliset, niin sitte olisi tosi lauseensa, ei kyllä muuten.
Savonlinnasta 20 Lokakuussa 1837.
Edelliset kirjotin Sordavalasta, vaikka jäivät lähettämättä. Sitte
olen lukenut R:n kirjasta erityisen tutkinnon H:forsin Avisassa, joka
kyllä ei suuresti armahda R:ia. Vaan mitäpä niistä. — Sortavalasta
vaelsin esinnä Jaakkiman pitäjään, siitä Kurkijokeen (Kronoborg),
Parikkalaan, jossa Majuri Lagervallin luona viivyin kokonaisen viikon
ja teetin uudet saappaat. Parikkalasta kuljin Ruokolahteen,
Joutsenoon, Lappeesen, Lemiin, Savitaipaleen, Taipalsaareen; jälle
Ruokolahteen Säämikään ja vihdoin tänne Savonlinnaan toissa
päivänä. Täältä nyt lähden Kerimäen pitäjän halki Heinäveteen,
Taipaleen, Juukaan, Nurmekseen ja Kajaniin. Niin olenki jo kauan
ylimäärän matkallani viipynyt, etten tohdi'kan Helsinkiin tulla, joka
vielä viikomman viivyttäisi kotiinpäästöäni. Ja ompa toinenki syy,
joka kieltää tulemasta: kaikki pukimeni ovat jo niin hajanaiset, että
tuskin pääsen niillä kotiini. Runokokoukseni on tänä kesänä jotenki
34. kasvanut sekä vanhoilla että nykyisemmillä runoilla. Semmoisia
vanhoja lauluja, kun Kantel. 2 osassa olen saanut joksikin runsaasti.
Kohta syntyy niistä yksinään kaunis kirja. Sanalaskuja on monta
tuhatta ja välilehdet Juteinin Sanalaskukirjassa niin täpi täyteen
semmoisilla kirjotetut, että harvassa kohti enää saapi siaa. En ole
lukenut montako tuhatta niitä on, vaan arvoituksia on 1,200. Tulee
niistä kylläki tulevaksi talveksi työtä, enkä tiedä, kuinka ennätän, jos
Mehiläiselle ei saa toista toimittajaa. Kirjotan kyllä nyt Pehr Tickleinin
luoksi kysyen, jos tahtois tulevanaki vuonna Historiaosan toimittaa,
vaan en tiedä mitä vastannee. Kolmen viikon päästä aion olla kotona
Kajanissa ja pyydän Sinua sinne siksi kirjottamaan. Haglundille
panen tässä kirjan, vaan kosk' en tiedä'kän, jos hän on Helsingissä
asuva, niin pyydän, ettäs lähettäisit sen hänelle, jos olisi muuallaki.
Sano terveisiä kaikille tuttaville.
Ystäväsi
Elias Lönnrot.
55.
Lehtori Keckmanille.
(Alk. suomeksi.)
Sortavalasta 3 Syyskuvia 1837.
Oiva Weljeni!
Toissa päivänä kirjotin pitkänki kirjan Sinulle, joka ei vielä
täysivalmisna on asuntopaikassani 4 virstaa Sortavalasta, Karmalan
35. kylässä. Siinä oli muutamia sanoja Renvallin nykysimmästä
kirjotuksesta, jonka Prof. Linseeni lähetti minulle tänne. Ne nyt
saavat jäähä. Myös kirjotin Törnuddin käännöksestä. Esimerkiksi
pannustasi kolmesta värsystä näyttää hänen siinä paikassa, jossa
ovat sanat siitelmä, riennätte loppulyhyitä suanneen. Minusta se ei
ole somasti kuuluva, vaan pitäisi sanojen olla, joko alkupitkien eli
somimmasti keskilyhyitten, jotta tulisivat kuulumaan esim. näin:
"Oi lapset muinas Kadmon uusi siittelö (siittämys, kantama).
Mit' ootta istuimille näille rientäneet (rientävät, lähteneet edl.)
Rukoiliain oliivalehviä kantaen."
Veljesi, Piispan, runokäännöksestä en kyllä sovi mitänä lausumaan.
Jos runoja kirjotetaan luettavaksi (ei laulettavaksi), niin ovat kyllä
sillä tavoin, kun sanoo, käännettävät. Vaan jos kääntäjän mieli on
saaha niitä käättynäkin laulettavaksi, niin pitäisi kaikitse'ki laitettaa,
että tulisivat käymään neljämittasesti, ei kolmella mitalla.
Jos Mehiläiselle ei saisi toista välitoimittajata, niin pitää itseni
kokea toisten tointen ohessa saaha sihenki aikaa. Ottajaluvun
vähenemisestä en ni suuresti huoli, koska jo alkaessaniki tiesin
työtäni ei monelle mieluiseksi ja sentähen päätinki noin korkeinta
200 ruplaa vuoelta omista varoistani lisätä. Tänä vuonna kyllä menee
enemmän, koska präntätään 500 kappaletta, vaan tulevana vuonna
enpä anna'kan päälle 200 präntätä. Aunuksen paikkakunta jäi tällä
kerralla käymättä ynnä muitaki paikkoja, vaan enkö niihin päässe
vasta. Täältä lähen nyt Lappeenrannan seuvuille, Viipurin tienoille,
Savon Linnan ympäristölle j.n.e.
En tieä, kuinka tullen kiertelemään, jonka tähen elä huoli'kan,
kuhunkaan niistä paikoista kirjottaa, koska ennen kirjasi tuloa jo
olisin tainnut käyä.
36. Voi hyvin rakas Weljeni.
Ystävällisimmästi ja nöyrimmästi
Elias Lönnrot.
KAHDEKSAS MATKA v. 1838.
[Vuonna 1838 tehdystä lyhyestä matkasta, jolloin L:lla oli
alkupuolella seuralaisena ystävänsä, maist. K.H. Ståhlberg, ei ole
paljon tietoja. Matkalle sanoo L. eräässä Rabbelle 24 p. elok.
kirjoitetussa kirjeessä kohta lähtevänsä ja syyskuun lopulla hän oli jo
taas kotona. Sen lisäksi mitä tähän otetuista kirjeistä selviää,
mainittakoon että Lönnrot Koiteren järveltä suuntasi kulkunsa
Pielisjärvelle ja sieltä kotiin.]
1.
Maisteri Ståhlbergille.
(Konsepti; alk. suomeksi.)
12 p:nä lokakuuta 1838.
Kiitoksia kirjastasi, jonka viime viikolla käsitin. Sama kiitos
lupauksestasi vastaki kirjotella. Sinusta Honkavaarassa [?] erottuani
37. oli kylläki ikävä ensiaikoina. Yötä piin Kihtelysvaaran Kestikivarissa ja
siitä toisena päivänä tulin Koveraan. Siinä kirjottelin runoja 3 päiveä,
ehken paljon vanhoja. Olisin suonut Sinunki siellä olevan, sillä ensiksi
oli siinä enempi kirjottamista kun yhelle kolmessa päivässä ja toiseksi
olisit, jota toivoit, kylläki saanut kuulla kanteleen soittajia ja
sopeuttajia (stammare). Kanteleita siinä oli joka talossa, jossa tulin
käymään. Siitä menin Ilomantsin kirkolle, jossa ja kylissä ympärillä
tulin puolentoista viikkoa viipymään. Oli niissäki laulajia, ehken
ennättänyt puoliakaan etsiä, joita neuottiin. Oikian laulajan tapasin
kuitenki vasta jälkeenpäin Materi Kuivalattaren Koiteren rannalla
Ilomantsin kirkolta neljättä penik. pohjaseen päin 3 neljännestä
Huhuksen kylältä. Siltä yksinään kirjottelin vanhoja lauluja 2 päivää.
Sitte piti kerkeämiseen kotiin rientää, johon pääsin syyskuun
loppupäivillä. Täällä kohtasi uusi ikävä Sinun ja Elfvinginki perään,
jonka tähden vaan elä unehutakaan tänne tulevana kesänä tulla ja
sitä ennen usein kirjoittaa. Sukulaisesi voivat hyvin ja muuttavat tänä
päivänä Kajaniin. Muut voivat myös hyvin. Potakoita, nauriita ja
muuta riistaa on tullut hyvin ihmisille.
2.
Tohtori Rabbelle.
Kajaani, 12 p:nä lokakuuta 1838.
Rakas Veli!
Hyvin tervetulleen kirjeesi olen vastaanottanut ja saan
sydämellisesti kiittää Sinua kaikesta siitä suuresta vaivasta, jonka
38. minun tähteni olet nähnyt ja jota vielä saat nähdä auttaessasi
Mehiläistä taas hyvään kuntoon. Ei liene vielä tullut vastausta tai
päätöstä Senaatista, mutta ehtineehän myöhemminkin tulla.
Ståhlbergiä myöten lähetin Seuralle 20 kappaletta Mehiläistä, muut
80 saapuvat ensi kelillä, jolloin vanha uusmaalainen renkini palaa
vaimonsa luo ja ottaa ne mukaansa. Viime matkallani, jonka yhdessä
Ståhlbergin kanssa tänä syksynä tein Karjalaan, sain taas sellaisen
joukon suomalaisia lyyrillisiä runoja, osaksi uusia, osaksi vanhojen
toisintoja, että niiden vertaaminen ja sovittaminen entisten joukkoon
luultavasti vaikuttaa sen, että kaikkien sellaisten runojen painoon
toimittaminen, joka jo ilman tätä on ylen kauan viipynyt, lykkäytyy
kuukautta tuonnemmaksi. — Saapa nähdä, kenestä nyt tulee
Keckmanin jälkeinen, Ståhlbergista vai Gottlundista. Arvelen
edellisestä tulevan.
Voi hyvin.
Tuus
Elias Lönnrot.
YHDEKSÄS MATKA v. 1839.
[Niistä matkoista, joista seuraavilla lehdillä kerrotaan, ensimäinen
epäilemättä osaksi oli tavallinen virkamatka, niin ettemme ole sitä
varsinaiseksi runonkeruumatkaksi lukeneet. Matkalla Helsinkiin sitä
vastoin näkyy L. Suomen-Karjalassa runoja keränneen saadaksensa
39. täydennyksiä silloin paraikaa tekeillä olevaan Kantelettareeseen, sillä
Kantelettaren esipuheessa hän sanoo vv. 1838 ja 1839 käyneensä
runonkeruumatkalla Karjalassa, "josta myös kummallaki kertaa
saimma paljo lisäyksiä ja toisinnoita ennen koottuihin". Valitettavasti
ei tältä matkalta ole säilynyt täydellisempää matkakertomusta.
Joulukuun alussa L. jo oli Helsingissä.]
1.
Tohtori Rabbelle.
Kajaani. 6 p:nä syyskuuta 1839.
Rakas Veli!
Yhdessä Ståhlbergin kanssa koko päivän kuljettuani ulkona
Iisalmen rovastin seurana, joka perheineen on matkustanut tänne
tervehtimään sukulaistaan, asessori Wichmannia, ja kun lisäksi
postituntia jo kotvan aikaa on kestänyt, en jouda pitää pitkiä
puheita. — Kuvernööriltä kuulun saaneen virkavapautta kuudeksi
viikoksi s.o. syyskuun keskivaiheilta lokakuun loppuun, mutta lupa ei
vielä ole tänne saapunut. Mutta ennenkuin voin olla matkalle valmis,
minun täytyy tarkastuksen vuoksi, jotta se tulisi loppuun suoritetuksi,
matkustaa Kiannalle sekä muutamille muille seuduille, joilla tänä
kesänä on jäänyt käymättä. Huomenna lähden tälle matkalle
Ståhlbergin seurassa, joka on lupautunut kumppanikseni koko tälle
matkalle. Sieltä tulen kotia vasta tämän kuun loppupuolella, ja kun
sen jälkeen kotona kuluu ainakin joku viikko, ennenkuin pääsen
täältä eroon, toivon sitä ennen Sinulta saavani tietoa siitä, voinko
40. varmasti saada pyydetyn koko vuotisen virkavapauden, jotta sen
mukaan voisin varustautua koko vuodeksi. Mitä tulee huoneisiin,
joita tarjosit minulle, saan ensiksi kiittää Sinua; mutta kun Ståhlberg
on pyytänyt minua kanssaan asumaan Jahnssonin talossa oleviin
huoneisiinsa, ja kun koko vuoden ajan tulen tutkimaan ja
järjestelemään suomenkielisiä aineksia, missä työssä hän usein
saattaa minua auttaa, pidän sopivimpana asettua sinne, etenkin kun
ennen olen asunut samoissa huoneissa. — Ståhlbergin terveys on
päivä päivältä parantunut, ja luulenpa, että hän kolmekkin viikkoa
vaellettuansa tämän läänin erämaissa, on koko Herkules. —
Tahtoisitko, koska asia nyt tuli mieleeni, katsoa tilikirjoista, onko
kirjoittamani lasku siellä hyväksytty maksettavaksi ja lähetetty
Ouluun. Se koski erästä Kajaanista viiden peninkulman päässä
olevaan Vuolijoen kylään tehtyä veneeristen tautien
tarkastusmatkaa, jonka tein Kuvernöörin määräyksestä viime
tammikuun loppupuolella. Sen jälkeen tavallisuuden mukaan lähetin
laskun, joka ei vielä kuulu saapuneen Ouluun, vaikka myöhemmin
kirjoitettuja laskuja on saapunut. — Voi nyt hyvin! Pian kaiketi saan
sinut itsesi nähdä. — Uskollinen ystäväsi
Elias Lönnrot.
2.
Tohtori Rabbelle.
Kajaani, 11 pnä lokakuuta 1839.
Rakas Veli!
41. Ståhlbergin kanssa onnellisesti päätettyäni neljä viikkoa kestäneen
tarkastusmatkan Hyrynsalmella, Kiannalla, osassa Arkangelin
kuvernementtiä y.m., olen nyt heti päättänyt lähteä täältä Helsinkiin
matkaamaan. Mutta matkani tulee kulkemaan Karjalan kautta, missä
tulen viipymään ainakin kuukauden, saadakseni perin tärkeitä
täydennyksiä suomalaisiin lyyrillisiin runoihin. Kun itse matka
sitäpaitsi vie jonkun aikaa, en luule saapuvani perille sinne ennen
marraskuun loppua. Kajaanilais-parat eivät ota uskoakseen, että
saavat jonkun sijaani; laita siis, rakas veli, niin, että he niin pian kuin
suinkin selvän todisteen kautta saavat toisen käsityksen. Tosin tänä
syksynä ei mitään kulkutauteja ole liikkunut seuduillamme, mutta
muutamat yksityiset potilaat, joiden tila ei kuitenkaan ole vaarallinen,
ovat vetäneet valitusvirsiään.
Ståhlberg lähettää terveisiä. Hänen terveytensä on päivä päivältä
parantunut, niin että hän pian kenen kanssa tahansa voi siinä
suhteessa kilpailla.
Uskollinen ystäväsi
Elias Lönnrot.
3.
[Matkakertomusta.]
23 p:nä lokakuuta 1839.
Viime sunnuntai-iltapäivänä läksin Polvilasta aikoen koko vuoden
olla kotoa poissa. Hinc illae lacrimae vanhemmille. Seurassani olivat
42. Turunkorvaan asti maisteri Ståhlberg ja sihteeri Elfving. He
seurasivat minua vielä 1/4 peninkulman matkan Tahkosaareen,
missä erosimme toisistamme. Tultiin sieltä 1/2 peninkulman päähän
Muurahaissaareen, vähäiseen korkeaan, ahontapaiseen Nuasselän
saareen. Sinne noustiin ja syötiin puolukoita, joista tänä syksynä on
ollut puute vallan vastoin yleistä luuloa, että hyvää vuotta seuraa
runsas marjansaanti. Muurahaissaaren sanottiin muinoin olleen
hautausmaana; siitä näkyi vielä muutamia merkkejä. "Ettekös pelkää
kalman tarttuvan?" kysyi toinen kyytimiehistä, kun mielihalulla söin
puolukoita. Siitä huolimatta hän noudatti esimerkkiäni syöden
itsekkin. Monessa paikoin saarta oli jälkiä kaivamisista, jotka olivat
aiheutuneet tarusta, että sinne oli kätketty aarteita. Siitä Kärnälään.
"Matkustatteko nyt Helsinkiin?" "Se on aikomukseni." "Olkaa siis niin
hyvä ja kuulostakaa niitä rahoja, joita olemme tahtoneet lainata
pankista ja kysykää, miksi ne eivät tule. Olemme jo tähän hommaan
käyttäneet lähes 70 ruplaa, emmekä vielä ole mitään saaneet."
Heidän matkansa Kajaaniin ja ajanhukkansa varmaankin maksavat
toiset 70 ruplaa. Sieltä 1 3/4 peninkulmaa Juurikkalahteen, missä
oltiin yötä. Sieltä Saviahoon 1 1/2 peninkulmaa ja edelleen lyhyt
peninkulma Maanselkään. Tämä kylä on osaksi Sotkamoa, osaksi, ja
suuremmaksi osaksi Nurmeksen pitäjää. Edelleen Rumolampeen
peninkulma ja sieltä Haapajärvelle 2 peninkulmaa. Vasta
Rumolammessa voitiin saada istuimella varustetut rattaat, siihen asti
oltiin oltu ilman. Sillä kuvernörin käskyä, että kestikievarien sakon
uhalla piti hankkia itselleen istuimella varustetut rattaat, ei vielä oltu
ehditty noudattaa. Nurmeksen puolelle Kajaanista tullen pian
huomaa, mikä etu on maanjaosta, eikä malta olla toivomatta, että
Kajaaninläänissäkin isojako pian pantaisiin toimeen.
Vallan toisin oli tien laita. Nurmeksen rajapyykille saakka se oli
hyvää, tosin virstapatsaita vailla, siitä alkaen huonoa, vaikka oli
43. virstapatsaat, jopa kaksinkertaisetkin, joista toinen oli kumossa
maassa, toinen osaksi kumossa, osaksi pystyssä. "Kuka on
laitattanut nämä?" "Täällä oli nimismies, joka ensin laitatti kumossa
olevat, seuraavana vuonna toiset ja olisi kaiketi kolmantena vuotena
laitattanut kolmannet, mutta ei ehtinyt, sillä hän itse siirrettiin täältä
pois." — Kaikki tämä tapahtuu talonpojan kustannuksella, ja usein
hänet pannaan ryöstön alaiseksi. Mutta syy ei ollut nimismiehen.
Haapajärveltä Jokikylään 1 1/2 peninkulmaa. Kuljettiin Karhunpään
kylän ohi, jonka seudut ovat kauniimpia maassa lampineen,
lahtineen, niemineen, kannaksineen ja metsineen. Puolen
neljännespeninkulman päässä Jokikylästä on Kuokkaisten koski.
Siihen asti on karjalainen sahajärjestelmä levinnyt. Laudat viedään
Lappeenrantaan ja Viipuriin. Sahan ympärille pian kohoaa pieni
kauppala. Niistä on monenlaista hyötyä maalle. Ne antavat vauhtia
metsänhoidolle ja maanviljelykselle sekä muulle yritteliäisyydelle.
Sitävastoin Pohjanmaan tervan valmistus on todellinen maan syöpä.
Se tekee kerrassaan lopun metsistä, ehkäisee maanviljelystä ja
karjanhoitoa, ylläpitää rahvaan laiskuutta ja pidättää sitä
kaikenlaisesta muusta teollisuuden harjoittamisesta. Päähäni on
pälkähtänyt se ajatus, että sama tervanvalmistus, jota pohjalaiset
merikaupungit nykyään niin innokkaasti rahvaalle saarnaavat ja jota
kaikilla mahdollisilla keinoilla ylläpidetään, kerran on tuottava niille
perikadon. Ja siinä piilee rangaistus yksipuolisuudesta, rangaistus,
joka Raamatun mukaan vasta esiintyy kolmannessa ja neljännessä
polvessa. Omanvoiton pyynti sokaisee heidät niin, etteivät ajattele
lähintä päivää. Nyt jo on melkein kaikki muu kauppa, voi-, liha- y.m.
kauppa ruvennut kulkemaan itäiseen suuntaan, kun sitä lyhyt aika
sitten vielä harjoitettiin pohjalaisissa merikaupungeissa. Ja jos
asettuu maan kannalle, ei voi paheksua sitä, ettei maakauppaa
koskevia asetuksia tarkemmin noudateta.
45. *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ELIAS LÖNNROTIN
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