Prospective Analysis.ppt
- 1. Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Financial Statement Analysis K R Subramanyam John J Wild
- 3. 9-3 Introduction • Most financial statement analysis tasks are undertaken with a forward-looking decision in mind—and much of the time, it is useful to summarize the view developed in the analysis with an explicit forecast. 1. Managers need forecasts for planning and to provide performance targets; 2. Analysts need forecasts to help communicate their views of the firm’s prospects to investors; 3. Bankers and debt market participants need forecasts to assess the likelihood of loan repayment.
- 4. 9-4 Introduction • Prospective analysis includes two tasks—forecasting and valuation—that together represent approaches to explicitly summarizing the analyst’s forward-looking views. • The best way to forecast future performance is to do it comprehensively—producing not only an earnings forecast, but a forecast of cash flows, income statement and the balance sheet as well. • Valuation is the process of converting a forecast into an estimate of the value of the firm or some component of the firm.
- 5. 9-5 Getting Started: Points of Departure • Every forecast has, at least implicitly, an initial “benchmark” or point of departure—some notion of how a particular amount, such as sales or earnings, would be expected to behave in the absence of detailed information. 1. The Behavior Of Sales Growth 2. The Behavior Of Earnings. 3. The Behavior Of Returns On Equity 4. The Behavior Of Components Of ROE
- 6. 9-6 Prospective Analysis Security Valuation - free cash flow and residual income models require estimates of future financial statements. Management Assessment - forecasts of financial performance examine the viability of companies’ strategic plans. Assessment of Solvency - useful to creditors to assess a company’s ability to meet debt service requirements, both short-term and long-term. Importance
- 7. 9-7 The Projection Process Projected Income Statement Sales forecasts are a function of: 1) Historical trends 2) Expected level of macroeconomic activity 3) The competitive landscape 4) New versus old store mix (strategic initiatives)
- 8. 9-8 Target Corporation is an American retail company, founded in 1902 and headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It is the second largest discount retailer in the United States, while Walmart is the largest.
- 9. 9-9 Old and New Concept
- 10. 9-10 The Projection Process Target Corporation Income Statements (in millions) 2005 2004 2003 Sales.......................................................................................... $46,839 $42,025 $37,410 Cost of goods sold ..................................................................... 31,445 28,389 25,498 Gross profit................................................................................ 15,394 13,636 11,912 Selling, general and administrative expense ............................. 10,534 9,379 8,134 Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................... 1,259 1,098 967 Interest expense......................................................................... 570 556 584 Income before tax ...................................................................... 3,031 2,603 2,227 Income tax expense.................................................................... 1,146 984 851 Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations................................................. 1,313 190 247 Net income................................................................................. $ 3,198 $ 1,809 $ 1,623 Outstanding shares ................................................................... 891 912 910 Selected Ratios (in percent) Sales growth............................................................................ 11.455% 12.336% Gross profit margin.................................................................. 32.866 32.447 Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales ................. 22.49 22.318 Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ........................... 6.333 5.245 Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt .............................. 5.173 4.982 Income tax expense/Pretax income........................................... 37.809 37.803
- 11. 9-11 The Projection Process Steps: 1. Project sales 2. Project cost of goods sold and gross profit margins using historical averages as a percent of sales 3. Project SG&A expenses using historical averages as a percent of sales 4. Project depreciation expense as an historical average percentage of beginning-of-year depreciable assets 5. Project interest expense as a percent of beginning-of- year interest-bearing debt using existing rates if fixed and projected rates if variable 6. Project tax expense as an average of historical tax expense to pre-tax income Projected Income Statement
- 12. 9-12 The Projection Process Target Corporation Projected Income Statement 1. Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455 2. Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866% 3. Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157 4. Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49% 5. Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 = $22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333% 6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173% 7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493 8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809% 9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none 10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328
- 13. 9-13 The Projection Process Target Corporation Projected Income Statement (in millions) Forecasting Step 2006 Estimate Income statement Total revenues......................................................................................... 1 $52,204 Cost of goods sold .................................................................................. 3 35,047 Gross profit............................................................................................. 2 17,157 Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................ 4 11,741 Depreciation and amortization expense .................................................. 5 1,410 Interest expense...................................................................................... 6 493 Income before tax ................................................................................... 7 3,513 Income tax expense................................................................................. 8 1,328 Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ...... 9 0 Net income.............................................................................................. 10 $ 2,185 Outstanding shares ......................................................................... 891 Forecasting Assumptions (in percent) Sales growth........................................................................................... 1 11.455% Gross profit margin................................................................................. 1 32.866 Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ............................... 1 22.49 Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E .......................................... 1 6.333 Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt............................................. 1 5.173 Income tax expense/Pretax income ......................................................... 1 37.809
- 14. 9-14 The Projection Process Steps: 1. Project current assets other than cash, using projected sales or cost of goods sold and appropriate turnover ratios as described below. 2. Project PP&E increases with capital expenditures estimate derived from historical trends or information obtained in the MD&A section of the annual report. 3. Project current liabilities other than debt, using projected sales or cost of goods sold and appropriate turnover ratios as described below 4. Obtain current maturities of long-term debt from the long-term debt footnote. 5. Assume other short-term indebtedness is unchanged from prior year balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends. (continued) Projected Balance Sheet
- 15. 9-15 The Projection Process Steps: 6. Assume initial long-term debt balance is equal to the prior period long-term debt less current maturities from Step 4. 7. Assume other long-term obligations are equal to the prior year’s balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends. 8. Assume initial estimate of common stock is equal to the prior year’s balance 9. Assume retained earnings are equal to the prior year’s balance plus (minus) net profit (loss) and less expected dividends. 10. Assume other equity accounts are equal to the prior year’s balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends. Projected Balance Sheet
- 16. 9-16 The Projection Process Target Corporation Balance Sheet (in millions) 2005 2004 2003 Cash .................................................................................. $ 2,245 $ 708 $ 758 Receivables ....................................................................... 5,069 4,621 5,565 Inventories ......................................................................... 5,384 4,531 4,760 Other current assets .......................................................... 1,224 3,092 852 Total current assets....................................................... 13,922 12,952 11,935 Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).............................. 22,272 19,880 20,936 Accumulated depreciation ................................................. 5,412 4,727 5,629 Net property, plant, and equipment ................................... 16,860 15,153 15,307 Other assets ...................................................................... 1,511 3,311 1,361 Total assets ....................................................................... $32,293 $31,416 $28,603 Accounts payable............................................................... $ 5,779 $ 4,956 $ 4,684 Current portion of long-term debt......................................504 863 975 Accrued expenses .............................................................. 1,633 1,288 1,545 Income taxes & other ......................................................... 304 1,207 319 Total current liabilities .................................................. 8,220 8,314 7,523 Deferred income taxes and other liabilities........................ 2,010 1,815 1,451 Long-term debt.................................................................. 9,034 10,155 10,186 Total liabilities .............................................................. 19,264 20,284 19,160 Common stock ...................................................................74 76 76 Additional paid-in capital.................................................. 1,810 1,530 1,256 Retained earnings ............................................................. 11,145 9,526 8,111 Shareholders’ equity...................................................... 13,029 11,132 9,443 Total liabilities and net worth ............................................ $32,293 $31,416 $28,603 Selected Ratios Accounts receivable turnover rate.................................... 9.240 9.094 6.722 Inventory turnover rate..................................................... 5.840 6.266 5.357 Accounts payable turnover rate ....................................... 5.441 5.728 5.444 Accrued expenses turnover rate ....................................... 28.683 32.628 24.214 Taxes payable/Tax expense............................................... 26.527% 122.663% 37.485% Dividends per share ......................................................... $ 0.310 $ 0.260 $ 0.240 Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...................... 3,012 2,671 3,189 CAPEX/Sales .................................................................... 6.431% 6.356% 8.524%
- 17. 9-17 The Projection Process Steps in Projection (Target) 1 Receivables: $5,650 = $52,204 (Sales)/9.24 (Receivable turnover). 2 Inventories: $6,001 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.84 (Inventory turnover). 3 Other current assets: no change. 4 PP&E: $25,629 = $22,272 (Prior year’s balance) + $3,357 (Capital expenditure estimate: estimated sales of $52,204 = 6.431% CAPEX/sales percentage). 5 Accumulated depreciation: $6,822 = $5,412 (Prior balance) + $1,410 (Depreciation estimate). 6 Net PP&E: $18,807 = $25,629 - $6,822. 7 Other long-term assets: no change. 8 Accounts payable: $6,441 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.441 (Payable turnover). 9 Current portion of long-term debt: amount reported in long-term debt footnote as the current maturity for 2006. 10 Accrued expenses: $1,820 $52,204 (Sales)/28.683 (Accrued expense turnover). 11 Taxes payable: $352 = $1,328 (Tax expense) x 26.527% (Tax payable/Tax expense). 12 Deferred income taxes and other liabilities: no change. 13 Long-term debt: $8,283 = $9,034 (Prior year’s long-term debt) - $751 (Scheduled current maturities from step 9). 14 Common stock: no change. 15 Additional paid-in capital: no change. 16 Retained earnings: $13,054 = $11,145 (Prior year’s retained earnings) + $2,185 (Projected net income) - $276 (Estimated dividends of $0.31 per share x 891 million shares). 17 Cash: amount needed to balance total liabilities and equity less steps (1)–(7).
- 18. 9-18 The Projection Process Target Corporation Balance Sheet Forecasting 2006 2005 (in millions) Step Estimate Cash .......................................................................... 17 $ 1,402 $ 2,245 Receivables ............................................................... 1 5,650 5,069 Inventories................................................................. 2 6,001 5,384 Other current assets .................................................. 3 1,224 1,224 Total current assets ..................................... 14,277 13,922 Property, plant, and equipment.................................. 4 25,629 22,272 Accumulated depreciation ......................................... 5 6,822 5,412 Net property, plant, and equipment ........................... 6 18,807 16,860 Other assets .............................................................. 7 1,511 1,511 Total assets ................................................ $34,595 $32,293 Accounts payable....................................................... 8 $ 6,441 $ 5,779 Current portion of long-term debt.............................. 9 751 504 Accrued expenses ...................................................... 10 1,820 1,633 Income taxes & other ................................................. 11 352 304 Total current liabilities.................................... 9,364 8,220 Deferred income taxes and other liabilities................ 12 2,010 2,010 Long-term debt.......................................................... 13 8,283 9,034 Total liabilities ............................................. 19,657 19,264 Common stock ........................................................... 14 74 74 Additional paid-in capital.......................................... 15 1,810 1,810 Retained earnings ..................................................... 16 13,054 11,145 Shareholders’ equity ...................................... 14,938 13,029 Total liabilities and net worth......................... $34,595 $32,293 Selected Ratios Accounts receivable turnover rate.................... 9.240 9.240 Inventory turnover rate.................................... 5.840 5.840 Accounts payable turnover rate ....................... 5.441 5.441 Accrued expenses turnover rate ...................... 28.683 28.683 Taxes payable/Tax expense............................. 26.527% 26.527% Dividends per share......................................... $ 0.310 $ 0.310 Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions......... 3,357 3,012 CAPEX/Sales ................................................. 6.431% 6.431%
- 19. 9-19 The Projection Process • If the estimated cash balance is much higher or lower, further adjustments can be made to: 1. invest excess cash in marketable securities 2. reduce long-term debt and/or equity proportionately so as to keep the degree of financial leverage consistent with prior years. Projected Balance Sheet
- 20. 9-20 The Projection Process • The projected statement of cash flows is computed from the projected income statement and projected balance sheet Projected Cash Flow
- 21. 9-21 The Projection Process Target Corporation Projected Statement of Cash Flows
- 22. 9-22 The Projection Process Sensitivity Analysis • Vary projection assumptions to find those with the greatest effect on projected profits and cash flows • Examine the influential variables closely • Prepare expected, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios to develop a range of possible outcomes • Managers and analysts are typically interested in a broader range of possibilities.
- 23. 9-23 The Projection Process Sensitivity Analysis Seasonality and Interim Forecasts • For security analysts in the U.S., forecasting is very much a quarterly game. • Seasonality is a more important phenomenon in sales and earning behavior than one might guess. • It is present for more than just the retail sector firms that benefit from holiday sales. • Seasonality also results from 1. Weather-related phenomena (e.g., for electric and gas utilities, construction firms, and motorcycle manufacturers), 2. New product introduction patterns (e.g., for the automobile industry), 3. Other factors (School Holiday, Religious Holiday).
- 24. 9-24 Application of Prospective Analysis in the Residual Income Valuation Model The residual income valuation model defines equity value at time t as the sum of current book value and the present value of all future expected residual income: where BVt is book value at the end of period t, RIt + n is residual income in period t + n, and k is cost of capital (see Chapter 1). Residual income at time t is defined as comprehensive net income minus a charge on beginning book value, that is, RIt = NIt - (k x BVt - 1). *Residual income atau laba residual adalah laba bersih dikurangi tingkat pengembalian minimum yang disyaratkan oleh pemegang saham biasa dalam menghasilkan laba bersih.
- 25. 9-25 Application of Prospective Analysis in the Residual Income Valuation Model In its simplest form, we can perform a valuation by projecting the following parameters: -Sales growth. -Net profit margin (Net income/Sales). -Net working capital turnover (Sales/Net WC). -Fixed-asset turnover (Sales/Fixed assets). -Financial leverage (Operating assets/Equity). -Cost of equity capital
- 26. 9-26 9-26
- 27. 9-27 Trends in Value Drivers The Residual Income valuation model defines residual income as: RIt = NIt – (k X BVt-1) = (ROEt – k) X BVt-1 Where ROE = NI/BVt-1 - Stock price is only impacted so long as ROE ≠ k - Shareholder value is created so long as ROE > k - ROE is a value driver as are its components - Net Profit Margin - Asset Turnover - Financial leverage Two relevant observations: - ROEs tend to revert to a long-run equilibrium. - The reversion is incomplete.
- 28. 9-28 Trends in Value Drivers Reversion of ROE
- 29. 9-29 Trends in Value Drivers Reversion of Net Profit Margin
- 30. 9-30 Trends in Value Drivers Reversion of Total Asset Turnover
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- 33. 9-33 • Ijin Solat Ashar….