Rt1 gott.p ihsgi sl
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1) While advanced internal combustion engine technologies offer potential CO2 reductions, their commercial viability depends on costs and regulatory compliance probabilities. 2) Lower risk technologies like direct injection spark ignition engines will be adopted before more expensive options like low temperature engines. 3) Hybrid vehicle architectures exist along a continuum, from micro to mild to full hybrids to plug-ins, with varying costs and fuel/CO2 reduction benefits. 4) By 2030, most vehicles will still use gasoline engines, but electrified options will grow to a third of the market, with fully electric vehicles comprising one-sixth.
Rt1 gott.p ihsgi sl
- 1. Can we win the tank-to-tire CO2 challenge? Phil Gott, Managing Director IHS Automotive Consulting Internal Combustion Engine Roundtable Challenge Bibendum Rio de Janeiro, May 30, 2010
- 2. 2 Commercial Viabilities of Most Advanced IC Engine Technologies Are Reasonably Probable Probability of Goals Being Achieved by 2030 NA SI Diesel Glossary SI IVT 100% NA = Naturally Aspirated BEV SI = spark Igntion DISI Technology & Fuel 80% IVT = Infinitely flexible intake DNSZ SI Valve throttling LTE 60% DI = Direct injection DNSZ = Downsize (about 30%) and boosted 40% LTE = Low Temperature Engine BEV = Battery electric Vehicle 20% λ = Fuel-air ratio 0% GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% "Toxic" Emissions Compliance Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 3. 3 Some Are Much More Cost Effective... Expected Locus of Cost vs Energy & Tailpipe CO2 Benefit 40% DISI (λ<1) 30% Benefit LTE DNSZ SI (λ1) 20% DNSZ SI (λ<1) Diesel SI CNG 10% DISI (λ1) SI IVT 0% NA SI 0% GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Cost Penalty Cost Penalty and Benefit = % difference from NA SI engine Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 4. 4 … But Some of the Most Attractive Are the Most Risky. The Lowest Risk, Lowest Cost Technologies Will Be Fully Exploited before More Expensive Types Are Adopted Risk - Attractiveness 2030 2 Attractiveness Index DNSZ SI (λ1) DISI 1 CNG LTE SI IVT DNSZ SI (<λ1) Diesel CNG 0 NA SI GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR 0.00% 25.00% 50.00% Risk Attractiveness = Fuel Benefit/Cost Penalty Risk = 1- Probability( Technology & Fuel x “Toxic” Emissions ) Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 5. 5 Hybrids Beg for Definition but Actually Fall along a Continuum Rationale • Micro—Stop/start operation – ~ 7 percent fuel consumption benefit – ~ 10 percent cost penalty • Mild—~25 percent of total driveline power delivered electrically – Integrated Starter Alternator – ~ 20 percent fuel consumption benefit – ~ 25 percent cost penalty • Full—~ 50 percent of total driveline power delivered electrically – Integrated Starter Alternator with motor assist – ~ 30 percent fuel consumption benefit – ~ 50 percent cost penalty • Plug-in—Sufficient onboard electrical energy stored to yield pure-electric driving for 100 percent of the majority of typical daily duty cycles. The GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR balance is driven as a full hybrid (series architecture likely). – ~ 60 km per charge – ~ 50 percent CO2 or fuel consumption benefit on test cycles assumed – ~ 100 percent cost penalty – Market limited to those people with easy access to grid power Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 6. 2030 Outlook: Engines in Europe, US, Japan and China still mostly gasoline • Overall movement towards advanced CO2 Regulations, Avg. g/km Equivalent gasoline engines (~60% of the 2015 2020 2025 2030 market) U.S/Canada 160 140 125 110 Europe 130 95 95 75 • Electrified (hybrid) drivelines account Japan 138 120 110 100 China 174 150 120 90 for 1/3 of the market, with 1/6 of the market fully electric Global Outlook: Planning Scenario Sales 47,915,199 46,686,543 60,608,869 64,882,907 68,944,193 73,392,567 Overall Market 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ENGINE Conventional λ1 SI 76% 71% 45% 26% 16% 9% λ1 SI w/ Full IVT 0% 1% 2% 10% 9% 9% λ1 Boost DI 0% 1% 4% 7% 9% 6% λ1 NA DI 0% 4% 9% 4% 3% 2% DNSZ λ1 Boost DI 1% 4% 17% 28% 37% 42% LTE 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% Diesel 23% 19% 19% 17% 14% 12% GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR BEV 0% 0% 2% 5% 10% 17% CNG 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% HYBRID Direct Drive 99% 91% 57% 32% 29% 27% Micro-HEV 0% 7% 32% 49% 43% 36% Mild- HEV 0% 0% 4% 7% 10% 10% Full-HEV 1% 1% 4% 8% 10% 13% PI-HEV 0% 0% 2% 4% 9% 14% Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 7. Meanwhile, the vehicle parc doubles… Regional Light Duty Vehicle Parc 1,800 1,600 Africa 1,400 Middle East 1,200 Euraisa 1,000 Million OECD Asia Vehicles 800 Latin America 600 Non OECD Asia 400 Europe 200 North America - GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD = Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 8. … And Tank-to-Tire CO2 begins to decline after 2020 in the four regions Global Tank-to-Wheel CO2 2.00 1.80 1.60 109 Tons/yr CO2 1.40 CNG 1.20 Electricity* 1.00 Forecast includes certain Ethanol 0.80 assumptions including: Diesel 0.60 • Modest shifts to smaller cars Gasoline 0.40 • ~20% reduction in energy intensity per average vehicle 0.20 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR • Mild reductions in Avg VMT 0.00 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source to tank Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 9. Thank you! Phil Gott, Managing Director Automotive Science and Technology IHS Automotive Consulting +1 781 301 9141 philip.gott@ihsglobalinsight.com Extracted from Preliminary findings; IHS Global Scenarios Project
- 10. 10 Engine Options • Conventional λ1 Spark Ignition (SI): Naturally Aspirated Spark Ignition – Variable and optimized cooling rates at different operating conditions, – Variable valve timing (Miller/Atkinson cycles), – Reduced mechanical friction losses – Pre-mixed • SI IVT: λ1 Spark Ignition with Infinitely Flexible Valve Timing and Boosting – Intake valve throttling • DISI: Direct Injection Turbocharged Gasoline Engine – Combustion system development for stratified operation across entire part load range – Lean with NOx treatment (20 percent risk) or Stoichiometric (5 percent risk) • DNSZ SI: Downsized, highly boosted DISI – 30 percent reduction in displacement – Turbocharged – Lean with NOx treatment (30 percent risk) or Stoichiometric (10 percent risk) • HSDI: (High Speed) Direct Injection Diesel (lean) – Turbocharged—perhaps multistage – Lean NOx exhaust gas treatment GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR – Diesel particulate filter • LTE: Low Temperature Engine (lean) – Also known as HCCI, PCCI or CAI – Power boosting – perhaps electrically assisted turbocharger – Advanced controls including start of combustion sensing – Low-temperature oxidation catalyst Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 11. 11 Global Segment Sales (Millions) 30 Multi-car ownership starts in growth markets Fiscal-induced downsizing Dominant growth segment in Asia Affordability for grey population, parking hassle factor 25 20 Virtual mobility squeeze Mega urban 15 agglomerations Japan like Technology load pricing 10 5 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR Age dependency, change to footprint not mass 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A B C D E MPV OTHER PUP CUV FF SUV Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 12. Vehicle Miles Traveled more than doubles! 20,000 18,000 16,000 Africa Middle East 14,000 Eurasia 12,000 OECD Asia 10,000 Latin America 8,000 Non OECD Asia 6,000 Europe 4,000 NAFTA 2,000 0 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.
- 13. … And Tank-to-Tire CO2 begins to level off around 2030 Global Tank-to-Wheel CO2 5.00 4.50 4.00 109 Tons/yr CO2 3.50 CNG 3.00 Electricity* 2.50 Forecast includes certain Ethanol 2.00 assumptions including: Diesel 1.50 • Modest shifts to smaller cars Gasoline 1.00 • ~20% reduction in energy intensity per average vehicle 0.50 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR • Mild reductions in Avg VMT 0.00 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 * Source to tank Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.