Software Project Mangmement (Lecture 5)
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This document covers key topics in software project management including scheduling, work breakdown structures (WBS), estimation, and network diagrams. It discusses estimating techniques like bottom-up and top-down, as well as analogy and expert judgment. Critical path method (CPM) and program evaluation review technique (PERT) network diagrams are explained for determining project schedules. The importance of realistic estimates to avoid project failure is emphasized. Brooks' law about the ineffectiveness of adding people to late projects is also referenced.
Software Project Mangmement (Lecture 5)
- 2. Today • Network Fundamentals • Gantt Charts • PERT/CPM Techniques 2
- 3. WBS • Types: Process, product, hybrid • Formats: Outline or graphical org chart • High-level WBS does not show dependencies or durations • What hurts most ---- is -----what’s missing • Becomes input to many things, esp. schedule 3
- 4. Estimation • “The single most important task of a project: setting realistic expectations. Unrealistic expectations based on inaccurate estimates are the single largest cause of software failure.” • Futrell, Shafer, Shafer, “Quality Software Project Management” 4
- 5. Estimation • History is your best ally – Especially when using LOC, function points, etc. • Use multiple methods if possible – This reduces your risk – If using “experts”, use two • Get buy-in • Remember: it’s an iterative process! • Know your “presentation” techniques 5
- 6. Estimation • Bottom-up • More work to create but more accurate • Often with Expert Judgment at the task level • Top-down • Used in the earliest phases • Usually with/as Analogy or Expert Judgment • Analogy • Comparison with previous project: formal or informal • Expert Judgment • Via staff members who will do the work • Most common technique along w/analogy • Best if multiple ‘experts’ consulted 6
- 7. Estimation • Parametric Methods – Know the trade-offs of: LOC & Function Points • Function Points – Benefit: relatively independent of the technology used to develop the system – We will re-visit this briefly later in semester • Re-Use Estimation 7
- 8. Your Early Phase Processes • Initial Planning: • Why – SOW, Charter • What/How (partial/1st pass) – WBS – Other planning documents » Software Development Plan, Risk Mgmt., Cfg. Mgmt. • Estimating • Size (quantity/complexity) and Effort (duration) • Iterates • Scheduling • Begins along with 1st estimates • Iterates 8
- 9. Scheduling • Once tasks (from the WBS) and size/effort (from estimation) are known: then schedule • Primary objectives • Best time • Least cost • Least risk • Secondary objectives • Evaluation of schedule alternatives • Effective use of resources • Communications 9
- 10. Terminology • Precedence: • A task that must occur before another is said to have precedence of the other • Concurrence: • Concurrent tasks are those that can occur at the same time (in parallel) • Leads & Lag Time • Delays between activities • Time required before or after a given task 10
- 11. Terminology • Milestones – Identify critical points in your schedule – Shown as inverted triangle or a diamond – Often used at “review” or “delivery” times • Or at end or beginning of phases • Ex: Software Requirements Review (SRR) • Ex: User Sign-off – Can be tied to contract terms 11
- 13. Terminology • Slack & Float – Float & Slack: synonymous terms – Free Slack – Slack an activity has before it delays next task – Total Slack – Slack an activity has before delaying whole project – Slack Time TS = TL – TE • TE = earliest time an event can take place • TL = latest date it can occur w/o extending project’s completion date 13
- 14. Scheduling Techniques – Mathematical Analysis • Network Diagrams – PERT – CPM – GERT – Bar Charts • Milestone Chart • Gantt Chart 14
- 15. Network Diagrams • Developed in the 1950’s • A graphical representation of the tasks necessary to complete a project • Visualizes the flow of tasks & relationships 15
- 16. Mathematical Analysis • PERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique • CPM – Critical Path Method • Sometimes treated synonymously • All are models using network diagrams 16
- 18. Network Diagrams • Two classic formats – AOA: Activity on Arrow – AON: Activity on Node • Each task labeled with • Identifier (usually a letter/code) • Duration (in std. unit like days) • There are other variations of labeling • There is 1 start & 1 end event • Time goes from left to right 18
- 19. Node Formats 19
- 20. Network Diagrams • AOA consists of • Circles representing Events – Such as ‘start’ or ‘end’ of a given task • Lines representing Tasks – Thing being done ‘Build UI’ • Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) • AON • Tasks on Nodes – Nodes can be circles or rectangles (usually latter) – Task information written on node • Arrows are dependencies between tasks • Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) 20
- 21. Critical Path • “The specific set of sequential tasks upon which the project completion date depends” – or “the longest full path” • All projects have a Critical Path • Accelerating non-critical tasks do not directly shorten the schedule 21
- 23. CPM • Critical Path Method – The process for determining and optimizing the critical path • Non-CP tasks can start earlier or later w/o impacting completion date • Note: Critical Path may change to another as you shorten the current • Should be done in conjunction with the you & the functional manager 23
- 24. 4 Task Dependency Types • Mandatory Dependencies • • • • “Hard logic” dependencies Nature of the work dictates an ordering Ex: Coding has to precede testing Ex: UI design precedes UI implementation • Discretionary Dependencies • • • • “Soft logic” dependencies Determined by the project management team Process-driven Ex: Discretionary order of creating certain modules 24
- 25. 4 Task Dependency Types • External Dependencies • Outside of the project itself • Ex: Release of 3rd party product; contract signoff • Ex: stakeholders, suppliers, Y2K, year end • Resource Dependencies • Two task rely on the same resource • Ex: You have only one DBA but multiple DB tasks 25
- 26. Task Dependency Relationships • Finish-to-Start (FS) – B cannot start till A finishes – A: Construct fence; B: Paint Fence • Start-to-Start (SS) – B cannot start till A starts – A: Pour foundation; B: Level concrete • Finish-to-Finish (FF) – B cannot finish till A finishes – A: Add wiring; B: Inspect electrical • Start-to-Finish (SF) – B cannot finish till A starts (rare) 26
- 28. Forward Pass • To determine early start (ES) and early finish (EF) times for each task • Work from left to right • Adding times in each path • Rule: when several tasks converge, the ES for the next task is the largest of preceding EF times 28
- 30. Backward Pass • • • • To determine the last finish (LF) and last start (LS) times Start at the end node Compute the bottom pair of numbers Subtract duration from connecting node’s earliest start time 30
- 33. Slack & Reserve • How can slack be negative? • What does that mean? • How can you address that situation? 33
- 34. Slack & Reserve Reserve Time Negative Slack Forward Pass A B Backward Pass Start Date Project Due Date 34
- 35. 35
- 36. Network Diagrams • Advantages – Show precedence well – Reveal interdependencies not shown in other techniques – Ability to calculate critical path – Ability to perform “what if” exercises • Disadvantages – Default model assumes resources are unlimited • You need to incorporate this yourself (Resource Dependencies) when determining the “real” Critical Path – Difficult to follow on large projects 36
- 37. PERT • Program Evaluation and Review Technique • Based on idea that estimates are uncertain – Therefore uses duration ranges – And the probability of falling to a given range • Uses an “expected value” (or weighted average) to determine durations • Use the following methods to calculate the expected durations, then use as input to your network diagram 37
- 38. PERT • Start with 3 estimates – Optimistic • Would likely occur 1 time in 20 – Most likely • Modal value of the distribution – Pessimistic • Would be exceeded only one time in 20 38
- 39. PERT Formula • Combined to estimate a task duration 39
- 40. PERT Formula • Confidence Interval can be determined • Based on a standard deviation of the expected time • Using a bell curve (normal distribution) • For the whole critical path use 40
- 41. PERT Example Description 10d 10d a 9d 9d b 12d 20d PERT time 10.16d 11.5d Std. Dev. • Planner 2 m • Planner 1 0.5d 1.8d Confidence interval for P2 is 4 times wider than P1 for a given probability Ex: 68% probability of 9.7 to 11.7 days (P1) vs. 9.5-13.5 days (P2) 41
- 42. PERT • Advantages – Accounts for uncertainty • Disadvantages – – – – Time and labor intensive Assumption of unlimited resources is big issue Lack of functional ownership of estimates Mostly only used on large, complex project • Get PERT software to calculate it for you 42
- 43. CPM vs. PERT • • • • • Both use Network Diagrams CPM: deterministic PERT: probabilistic CPM: one estimate, PERT, three estimates PERT is infrequently used 43
- 44. Milestone Chart • Sometimes called a “bar charts” • Simple Gantt chart – Either showing just highest summary bars – Or milestones only 44
- 45. Bar Chart 45
- 46. Gantt Chart 46
- 47. Gantt Chart • Disadvantages – Does not show interdependencies well – Does not uncertainty of a given activity (as does PERT) • Advantages – Easily understood – Easily created and maintained • Note: Software now shows dependencies among tasks in Gantt charts – In the “old” days Gantt charts did not show these dependencies, bar charts typically do not 47
- 48. Reducing Project Duration • How can you shorten the schedule? • Via – – – – Reducing scope (or quality) Adding resources Concurrency (perform tasks in parallel) Substitution of activities 48
- 49. Compression Techniques • Shorten the overall duration of the project • Crashing • • • • • Looks at cost and schedule tradeoffs Gain greatest compression with least cost Add resources to critical path tasks Limit or reduce requirements (scope) Changing the sequence of tasks • Fast Tracking • Overlapping of phases, activities or tasks that would otherwise be sequential • Involves some risk • May cause rework 49
- 50. Mythical Man-Month • Book: “The Mythical Man-Month” – Author: Fred Brooks • “The classic book on the human elements of software engineering” • First two chapters are full of terrific insight (and quotes) 50
- 51. Mythical Man-Month • “Cost varies as product of men and months, progress does not.” • “Hence the man-month as a unit for measuring the size of job is a dangerous and deceptive myth” 51
- 52. Mythical Man-Month • Why is software project disaster so common? – 1. Estimation techniques are poor & assume things will go well (an ‘unvoiced’ assumption) – 2. Estimation techniques fallaciously confuse effort with progress, hiding the assumption that men and months are interchangeable – 3. Because of estimation uncertainty, manager lack courteous stubbornness – 4. Schedule progress is poorly monitored – 5. When schedule slippage is recognized, the natural response is to add manpower. Which, is like dousing a fire with gasoline. 52
- 53. Mythical Man-Month • Optimism – “All programmers are optimists” – 1st false assumption: “all will go well” or “each task takes only as long as it ‘ought’ to take” – The Fix: Consider the larger probabilities • Cost (overhead) of communication (and training) • His formula: n(n-1)/2 – How long does a 12 month project take? – 1 person: 1 month – 2 persons = 7 months (2 man-months extra) – 3 persons = 5 months (e man-months extra) – Fix: don’t assume adding people will solve the problem 53
- 54. Mythical Man-Month • Sequential nature of the process – “The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter how many women are assigned” • What is the most mis-scheduled part of process? • Testing (the most linear process) • Why is this particularly bad? • Occurs late in process and w/o warning • Higher costs: primary and secondary • Fix: Allocate more test time • Understand task dependencies 54
- 55. Mythical Man-Month • Reliance on hunches and guesses – What is ‘gutless estimating’? • The myth of additional manpower – Brooks Law – “Adding manpower to a late project makes it later” 55
- 56. Mythical Man-Month • Q: “How does a project get to be a year late”? – A: “One day at a time” • Studies – Each task: twice as long as estimated – Only 50% of work week was programming • Fixes – No “fuzzy” milestones (get the “true” status) – Reduce the role of conflict – Identify the “true status” 56
- 57. Review - Fundamentals • Projects, programs, products • McConnell’s four dimensions • Classic mistakes – Know a set of these – Remember by “type” • People, process, product, technology related 57
- 58. Review • Trade-offs & constraints – The triangle – Cost, Time, Scope – (And Quality) • PMI processes and knowledge areas – Process groups • Organizational structures – Advantages & disadvantages of each form 58
- 59. Review • Classic project phases • Key documents at each phase – SOW, Charter – Project Management Plan – Identify key planning documents 59
- 60. Review - Lifecycle • Methodologies – Trade-offs – Basic Pros & Cons • Given a specific scenario decide what SDLC is most appropriate • Waterfall process • Challenges of each phase • Requirements • Criticality • Issues • Functional & Non-functional 60
- 61. Review • Wherever I gave you say 5 types of ‘things’ – Like estimation techniques or methodologies • I may ask ‘Tell me two approaches to X’ • Especially interested in the pros & cons • You did your readings, yes? – Text & class slides 61
- 62. Review – Estimate & Schedule • Four primary steps – – – – Define work to be done (WBS) Estimate size Estimate effort Build schedule 62
- 63. Review - WBS • • • • Types: Process, product, hybrid Formats: Outline or graphical org chart Shows hierarchical task relationships High-level version does not show dependencies or durations • What hurts most is what’s missing • Becomes input to many things, esp. schedule 63
- 64. Review – Estimation • Size Estimation Techniques – – – – Bottom-up vs. Top-down Analogy Expert Judgment Parametric (not the formulas, just the gist) • Function Points • LOC • Schedule presentation techniques – Q3, 6-8 months, best/worst case 64
- 65. Review - Scheduling • Dependencies – Types: mandatory, etc. – Relationships: FS, SF, etc. • Network Diagrams – CPM – PERT • Schedule Optimization Techniques 65
- 66. Things I Won’t Ask • Ambiguous terminology – Tasks vs. Activities vs. Work Packages – WBS: does it start at 0 or 1 – Details of Function Point calculation method 66
- 67. Homework • No homework, just exam study • You can get a jump on MS-Project by reading Schwalbe Appendix A “Guide to Using Microsoft Project 2000” (447-477) 67
- 68. Questions? 68
Editor's Notes
- #3: No lab today More lab in later term
- #51: draw graphs Training == ramp-up Software is a ‘systems effort’
- #52: draw graphs Training == ramp-up Software is a ‘systems effort’
- #55: I don’t agree with his formula He advocates 50% of schedule to Test Late Highest cost: most staffed time Changes cost more Secondary costs You need to understand Critical Path and other dependencies
- #56: omelet and chef analogy
- #57: what does Brooks mean by this? Termites not tornadoes Imperceptibly but inexorably Hard to recognize Reduce conflict: status vs. action meetings