Supporting transition towards the Paris Agreement using TIMES: insights from preliminary analyses of the Paris Reinforce project
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The Paris Reinforce project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program, aims to support the transition towards the Paris Agreement using integrated assessment modeling. Coordinated by the National Technical University of Athens and involving multiple European and international partners, the project focuses on harmonizing modeling approaches to better assess climate policies and impacts. It will include stakeholder engagement and scenario analysis to inform decision-making related to climate strategies in Europe and beyond.
Supporting transition towards the Paris Agreement using TIMES: insights from preliminary analyses of the Paris Reinforce project
- 1. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Supporting transition towards the Paris Agreement using TIMES Insights from preliminary analyses of the Paris Reinforce project Winter 2020 semi-annual ETSAP meeting Alessandro Chiodi (E4SMA)
- 2. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Title: Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach (PARIS REINFORCE) Funding: European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (H2020) Lifetime: June 2019 - May 2022 (36 months) Coordination: NTUA, Energy Policy Unit, National Technical University of Athens Participants: 13 European partners; 5 international partners Call/Grant: H2020-LC-CLA-01-2018/820846 Overview
- 3. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. NTUA - National Technical University of Athens GR BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change ES Bruegel - Bruegel AISBL BE Cambridge - University of Cambridge UK CICERO - Cicero Senter Klimaforskning Stiftelse NO CMCC - Fondazione Centro Euro- Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici IT E4SMA - Energy, Engineering, Economic and Environment Systems Modelling Analysis IT EPFL - École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne CH Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research DE Grantham - Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine - Grantham Institute UK HOLISTIC - Holistic P. C. GR IEECP - Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy Stichting NL SEURECO - Société Européenne d’Economie SARL FR Consortium CDS/UnB - Centre for Sustainable Development of the University of Brasilia BR CUP - China University of Petroleum-Beijing CN IEF-RAS - Institute of Economic Forecasting – Russian Academy of Sciences RU IGES - Institute for Global Environmental Strategies JP TERI - The Energy and Resources Institute IN
- 4. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. A set of complementary-in terms of mathematical structure, geographical, sectoral and focus coverage-integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models Modelling Ensemble EU-TIMES TIAM TIMES-CAC
- 5. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Workflow Interlinkage 1
- 6. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Interlinkage 1 Creating a common ground: harmonisation of exogenous variables between models Design of common scenario protocol: “Where are we heading” scenarios to allow the interlinkage and comparison Outputs intercomparison: common findings and robustification (ongoing) Modelling armory
- 7. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Interlinkage 1 Source: http://paris-reinforce.epu.ntua.gr/pr_wwh/harmonisation_table#harm_heatmap Creating a common ground: harmonisation of exogenous variables between models
- 8. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Interlinkage 1 Design of common scenario protocol: “Where are we heading” scenarios to allow the interlinkage and comparison Common Where are we heading (WWH) scenario protocol: • All model’s Reference scenarios reflect current levels of climate policy ambition in different world regions. • Will include • a scenario reflecting the implementation of current policies at a national or regional level (WWH - Current Policy) • a distinct reference scenario including the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (WWH - NDC). • Variants to this framework can be established to capture specificness of geographical scope, policy ambition and uncertainties Ex: TIMES-CAC protocol
- 9. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Interlinkage 1 Design of common scenario protocol: “Where are we heading” scenarios to allow the interlinkage and comparison Common Where are we heading (WWH) scenario protocol: • To the European context, models will take advantage of the high-level of ambition in climate mitigation in the EU and of the well-established set of existing policies. • Scenarios includes variants comparing a target-oriented, or “forecasting”, approach; with a policy-oriented (“backcasting”) approach. Where are we heading? WWH-CP Backcasting Target-oriented: Current EU- Climate Energy Package ambition Forecasting Policy-oriented: national policy ambition as specified by NECPs WWH-NDC Backcasting Target-oriented: includes long- term ambition based on Reference long term strategy Forecasting (ongoing) Policy-oriented: national long term strategy ambition Ex: EU-TIMES protocol
- 10. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Objectives: • Models fine-tuning/debugging • Improve robustness • Expand results scope: • Single modeling tool cannot address all aspects of the transition in great detail and greater insights • Highlighting strengths of multiple modeling tools This task is meant to primarily inform models with similar geographical scope, but also provide feedback to other geographical scales (e.g. EU models to inform global modelling, etc.) This task is currently ongoing Interlinkage 1 Outputs intercomparison: common findings and robustification (ongoing)
- 11. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Scenarios (virtual) Decisions (real) Stakeholder engagement: what for? Governing assumptions* Model (analysis) Outputs/Findings *Key data, structures, scenario factors/forces, and their combinations into storylines (examples: technologies, socio-economic phenomena, energy/climate statistics, reserves&potentials, policies and measures, etc.) Enhancement and Reframing “What can the model deliver” VS “What do decision makers would like to know” Next round of EU national workshops will be host on Q1-Q2 2121 in Italy, UK, Greece, etc.
- 12. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Engagement methods Dashboard is a visualisation interface which organizes, stores and displays views of key performance indicators (KPIs) relevant to a particular system. - Offline tool (front-end + back-end) - Created specifically to facilitate the dialogue between modellers and local stakeholders - Pre-defined KPIs (limited number) - Comprehensiveness - Non-redundancy – Scenario-sensitivity - National vs Regional “to establish an (initial) common ground for an effective scenario development and results analysis through a participative approach”.
- 13. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Engagement methods The I2AΜ PARIS Platform, an open-access portal: • Open to other models • Repository of inputs, assumptions and datasets • Dedicated sections to various stakeholders • Results visualization tool (ongoing) http://paris-reinforce.epu.ntua.gr/main
- 14. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Key model features: • Originates from the open source JRC-EU-TIMES model • Horizon: 2010- 2060 (up to 2075) • (Intra-annual) timeslots: 12 slices (4 seasons * 3 intraday slots) • Sectors coverage: supply; electricity generation, demand sectors (residential, commercial, industry, agriculture, transport) • High level of technology/activity explicitness (supply and demand side) • Trades within EU and with RoW • Emissions coverage: CO2 (Combustion & Process) Latest developments: • Migration to the Veda 2.0 platform • Enforcement of a results database and dynamic dashboard to efficiently check and analyse results (online tool under development) • Update of scenario drivers, harmonized with H2020 Paris Reinforce project partners • Review of fossil fuel price projections, harmonized with project partners (WEO 2019) • Review of nuclear retirement and outlook profiles • Review of CCS potentials • Addition of latest national policy targets (i.e. NECP) • Review of ETS policy trajectory + inclusion of Aviation withion the sector • General debugging EU-TIMES (EU-27, UK, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland) Preliminary insights for the EU
- 15. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Development of WWH scenarios: • Two backcasting (harmonized) scenarios + 2 forecasting variants • Benchmark analysis performed over: • key EU projections (e.g. EU Reference 2016, EUCO 3232.5, etc.) • technology roadmaps (e.g. CCS, hydrogen, etc.) • other EU tools (e.g. NEMESIS) Preliminary insights for the EU
- 16. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Preliminary insights for the EU Next steps (Q1-Q2 2020): • Proposal of a set policy-relevant Paris Reinforce scenarios, including top priority EU challenges: • Assessment of impacts of COVID-19 • Increasing the ambition towards the Green new deal • Moving towards country-specific focal analyses • Make use of the upcoming national EU events to inform AND get informed by key stakeholder • Co-design process • Contribute to the IPCC AR6
- 17. The PARIS REINFORCE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 820846. Thank you! #parisreinforce ParisReinforce paris-reinforce parisreinforce Alessandro Chiodi alessandro.chiodi@e4sma.com