T E C S U P Tsunami
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The document discusses how manufacturers must prepare for unpredictable changes by adopting a scenario planning approach. It notes that changes like new technologies happen faster and more extensively than expected, creating tsunami-like disruptions. To cope, companies need flexible organizational structures and should consider multiple potential futures rather than relying on predictions or current assumptions. Scenario planning can help companies systematically envision different technological and market scenarios to guide strategic planning.
T E C S U P Tsunami
- 1. Surfing the Tsunami: Surviving the Cascading Changes Facing Manufacturers Dr. Joel Orr Cyon Research Corporation
- 3. Technology chaos Computers Miniaturization Globalization Internet Thermos bottle $Prices nanotechnology Singularity CHEAP POWER Genetic programming
- 4. What makes a tsunami hard to deal with? No warning More of the same - but a lot more No idea how much more No idea of how many waves
- 5. What to do Raise the paradigmatic bar and live in a second-derivative world Examine your organizational structure The next best thing to the impossible task of predicting the future
- 6. What’s your paradigm? Change is gradual? Demand is cyclical? The second mouse gets the cheese? … yours?
- 7. The second derivative Distance Velocity Acceleration
- 8. The second derivative in business Work on your business, not just in it. Michael Gerber Find new questions Listen to customers - but not too much (read Christensen)
- 9. Structure is destiny Pyramids are a place where great things are buried The purpose of a system is what it does Out of control The Dandelion Paradox
- 10. Why did the brontosaurus die?
- 12. Simulation and the essence of chaos Less abstraction; simulation is the end of CAD No closed-form solutions Cheaper to crash a simulator Chaos: God’s way of keeping engineers humble
- 13. Knowing the future Simulation and the essence of chaos “The Black Swan” and predictive fallacies Scenario planning
- 14. Taleb’s Triplet of Opacity The illusion of understanding Retrospective distortion Overvaluing facts and authorities from “The Black Swan”
- 15. Predictive fallacies from “The Black Swan” The Narrative Fallacy The Ludic Fallacy The cemetery
- 16. Scenario planning Where it came from What it is More information: “The Art of the Long View,” Schwartz
- 17. Tech snapshot Computers: Moore’s Law and up Telecom: Schmidt’s Law Innovation: Joy’s Law Nanotech Genetic Programming The Singularity?
- 18. So? Keep one eye on the ball - and the other on the stadium Continuously consider structure; revise accordingly Think “scenario planning”
- 19. Thanks! References: “ Structure is Destiny” - http://www.lulu.com/conte nt/49992 “ The Black Swan,” “The Art of the Long View,” “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” “The Innovator’s Solution,” “The E-Myth Revisited” - Amazon.com “ The End of CAD” - http://joelorr.squarespace.com/the-end-of-cad/ Me: www.joelorr.com Cyon Research: www.cyonresearch.com