Towards an anthropogenic CO2 emissions monitoring system
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This document provides information about the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). It describes how C3S and CAMS use satellite observations, models, and reanalysis to provide data and services related to climate change and atmospheric composition. It also discusses the development of a potential anthropogenic CO2 emissions monitoring system building upon CAMS and C3S modeling capabilities with complementary satellite and in-situ observation components.
Towards an anthropogenic CO2 emissions monitoring system
- 1. C 3 S C o p e r n i c u s C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change CopernicusEU CopernicusEU CopernicusECMWF www.copernicus.eu climate.copernicus.eu atmosphere.copernicus.eu Copernicus EU CopernicusECMWF C A M S C o p e r n i c u s A t m o s p h e r e M o n i t o r i n g S e r v i c e Towards an anthropogenic CO2 emissions monitoring system
- 2. C O P E R N I C U S A N D E C M W F Sentinels User-driven with free and unrestricted data access Atmosphere Climate Land Marine Emergency Security Observations feeding into value-added Services Service is implemented by ECMWF ECMWF is contributing to the Service
- 3. Climate Change C3S: ACCESS TO PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE INFORMATION Earthsystemmodels Observations and climate reanalyses Seasonal forecast data and products http://climate.copernicus.eu Climate model simulations Sectoral climate impact indicators
- 4. Atmosphere Monitoring CAMS: ACCESS TO PAST AND PRESENT COMPORISTION INFORMATION Solar radiation and UV index Ozone layer Bottom-up emissions and surface fluxes of greenhouse gases Global analyses, forecasts and reanalyses (2003-...) NO2 European Air Quality and products in support of policy users http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu Radiative forcings
- 5. Atmosphere Monitoring W H Y A R E S E RV I C E S N E E D E D O N TO P O F D ATA? ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY METOP-A/IASI GOSAT/TANSO CH4
- 6. Atmosphere Monitoring CAMS SERVICE CHAIN Space Agencies In-situ observations 15 C A M S O P E R AT I O N A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Regional multi-model ensemble (7 soon 9 models) Users: Env. Agencies Academia SMEs Citizens ... ~75 different data streams (about 15 for atmospheric composition variables) EEA, GAW, EMEP, IAGOS, NDACC, ICOS, ACTRIS, EAN... Global System Regional System
- 7. Atmosphere Monitoring I F S : A V E RY G O O D N W P A N D D A S Y S T E M IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) is the tool behind ECMWF’s successful NWP As part of ECMWF’s strategy, IFS is increasingly becoming an Earth-System Model, i.e. even more Integrated: surface, cryosphere… and composition
- 8. Atmosphere Monitoring C A N I T R U S T C A M S P R O D U C T S ? A N E X A M P L E . CAMS AOD forecasts initialized on 13 October 2017. Storm Ophelia transported a mixture of smoke, dust and sea salt aerosol across Europe leading to the sun appearing red and to yellow skies.
- 9. Atmosphere Monitoring H U R R I C A N E O P H E L I A A N D C A M S A E R O S O L F O R E C A S T S IASI observations Dust NH3 CAMS AOD contributions Dust Biomass burning 15 October - pm 16 October - am 16 October - pm 17 October - am • Ophelia winds advected Saharan dust closely followed by smoke from fires in Portugal and NW Spain across northern Europe over several days from 16 October. • Near-real time monitoring of the event by CAMS showed excellent agreement with NRT IASI observations of dust and ammonia. Figure c/o L. Clarisse (ULB) from Clerbaux et al.
- 10. Climate Change C3S: Reanalysis based Essential Climate Variables (30km global ERA5) Builds upon IFS modelling and Data Assimilation Reflects variations in: • ingested observing system • flow-dependent sensitivity Spread in Surface Pressure (hPa) January 1979 July 2014 Uncertainty estimate Hourly data and increased number of parameters Credit: H. Hersbach, ECMWF Courtesy: Philip Brohan
- 11. Climate Change C 3 S : E O b a s e d E s s e n t i a l C l i m a t e V a r i a b l e s Science Operations • Large uptake by Copernicus of Science in Europe (e.g. ESA Climate Change Initiative, EUMETSAT SAFs, etc.) • Copernicus is a resource to WMO State of Climate, GCOS climate indicators, contributes to CEOS-CGMS Climate data records inventory
- 12. Climate Change Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014. Climate indicators Trend Surface temperature Greenhouse gases Rain Sea Ice Glaciers Sea Level Soil Moisture C 3 S : O p e r a t i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n o f c l i m a t e i n d i c a t o r s ( w i t h C A M S a n d C M E M S ) https://climate.copernicus.eu/CopernicusESC
- 13. Climate Change Copernicu s W h a t ’ s n e x t : B r o a d i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g e n d a • “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” - 17 Sustainable Development Goals with 169 associated targets • Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 with seven global targets • Paris Agreement adopted by conference of parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-21) • The New Urban Agenda adopted at Habitat III Credit: WMO
- 14. 30 November 2017 Copernicus 30 November 2017 Establishment of User Needs / Requirements for Copernicus evolution • The EC conducted in 2016-17 a wide initiative to identify long term, “user-driven” requirements for evolution of Copernicus services and space segment => user consultations, workshops, etc. • Copernicus will continue to be a public service, driven by the needs of policy and public administrations, and fostering economic development in Europe • Stability of the programme and long term commitment – (Enhanced) continuity of current data and services; – Continuity of full, open and free data policy • Emerging needs – Climate change and sustainable development; – Monitoring CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions; – Land use and forestry; – Changes in the Arctic; – Security and Defence: Improving the EU's capacity (border control, maritime surveillance);
- 15. 30 November 2017 Copernicus 30 November 2017 Space Segment, observation requirements preliminary conclusions • The (enhanced) continuity of existing observation capacity is the overarching priority; • Conclusions on major gaps : – CO2 measurements to estimate anthropogenic emissions (highest priority) – High-Resolution Thermal observations – SAR L-band observations – Monitoring of sea ice and ice sheets in the polar region (various measurements and instruments) – Hyper-spectral measurements • Very ambitious plans being put forward by the EC/ESA for the future generation of Copernicus satellites (Sentinels 1 to 6 deployment completion, Next Gen S1 to S6, and further missions)
- 16. C O 2 A N T H R O P O G E N I C E M I S S I O N M O N I TO R I N G S Y S T E M Approach based on CAMS and C3S, with 3 complementary components: • ECMWF/IFS @5- 10km, 100+ satellite data streams • Regional zooms @1-2km • Hot spots
- 17. 30 November 2017 Copernicus I C O S & C o p e r n i c u s f u t u r e C O 2 s e r v i c e A future Copernicus CO2 Monitoring & Verification Support (MVS) capacity critically depends on sustained access to high-quality in-situ observations of CO2 concentrations and fluxes. In situ observations are required for calibration and validation of the space component, for assimilation in models at the core of the system, and for evaluating the output generated by the system for its end users. The ICOS Research Infrastructure, supported by many European countries, can therefore play a critical role in a future CO2 MVS capacity.
- 18. TOWARDS AN OPERATIONAL CO2 EMISSION MONITORING SERVICE 20252018 20202019 2021 2022 2023 2024 Prototype system(s) for hot spot emissions and country-region scale emissions Pre-operational system OCO-2/-3 GOSAT/-2 MicroCarb Sentinel TANSAT/-2 CHE VERIFY SPACE-5-EO-2019 Definition of system components, spatial temporal scales Early Prototype, country / region emissions In-situ network design Copernicus CO2 service Operational system FY-3D Chinese operational missions Space component Modelling/information system component GF-5 System performance analysis
- 19. CO2 HUMAN EMISSIONS CHE Structure and Work Package Breakdown CO2 Emissions: from a system input to a system output... WP1 Coordinating Efforts on reconciling top-down and bottom-up estimates WP2 Coordinating efforts on library of simulations for emissions and atmospheric transport WP3 Coordinating efforts on uncertainty trade-off for fossil fuel emissions WP4 Coordinating Efforts on attributing CO2 emissions from in-situ measurements WP5 Towards a prototype of a European anthropogenic emission monitoring system WP6 International Stakeholder Coordination and liaison WP7 Project Management, Dissemination and Communication Co-ordinator: G. Balsamo (ECMWF)
- 20. CO2 HUMAN EMISSIONS CHE Integration & capacity building TASK FORCES VERIFY project
- 21. CO2 HUMAN EMISSIONS C 3 S climate.copernicus.eu Climate Change CopernicusEU CopernicusEU CopernicusECMWF www.copernicus.eu climate.copernicus.eu atmosphere.copernicus.eu Copernicus EU CopernicusECMWF C A M S a t m o s p h e r e . c o p e r n i c u s . e u Thank You!
Editor's Notes
- #12: The point here is just to say that there are many variables and we will ultimately give access to as much of them as possible