Understanding AMAZON.COM: The world's most disruptive company

Understanding
The first trillion dollar company
@johnbatistich
UNDERSTANDING
THE WORLD’S MOST DISRUPTIVE COMPANY
@johnbatistich
Photo Source: Google Images

For a company who limits Powerpoint in favour of
narrative memos, I am going to share lots of slides to
understand Amazon and predict the future!

LE ADE RSHIP & C U LT U RE
ST RAT E GY
PE RFORM ANC E
M ARK E T PLAC E
PRIM E
ALE X A
ST U DIOS
WE B SE RVIC E S
1 6 PRE DIC T IONS
T OWARDS ONE T RILLION VALU AT ION
@johnbatistich

“Since going public twenty years ago, Amazon has gone from a start-up
online bookseller to the world’s 4th most valuable company, revolutionising
and disrupting multiple industries, including retail, publishing, logistics,
devices, apparel, search, payments, content and cloud computing. Now,
Amazon is on it’s way to become the first Trillion dollar valued company.”

LEADERSHIP & CULTURE
1
@johnbatistich

LeadershipStrategyPerformanceMarketplacePrimeAlexaStudiosAWSPredictions$1B

§ 1964: Born in New Mexico. Moved to Miami for high school.
§ Raised by Mum and Engineer stepfather. Has 2 siblings.
§ Early interest in computers, science and invention.
§ 1982: Graduates as high school valedictorian.
§ 1986: Completes Bachelor Science in computer science and
electrical engineering at Princeton.
§ 1990: Works at hedge fund DE Shaw in New York.
§ 1993: Married to novelist MacKenzie. Four children.
§ 1994: Quits job to launch digital business “the everything
store” backed by $300K capital borrowed from parents.
Chooses to focus on books delivering low prices and “infinite
shelf space”.
§ 1995: Launches Amazon.com with sales reaching $20K per
week within 2 months. Raises capital to fund growth.
§ 1997: IPO in May at $18 per share creating $290 Million of
personal wealth. Vows to focus on customer and invest for
the long term.
§ Early investor in Google. His stake is worth $280 Million
when the company goes public.
§ 2000: Offers free shipping. Starts privately funded space
venture Blue Origin to pursue his passion for space travel.
§ 2005: Launches Amazon Prime membership on intuition &
AWS takes off.
§ 2007: Releases Kindle e-reader.
§ 201O: Launches Amazon Studios.
§ 2013: Promises 30 minute delivery with drones. Privately
funds purchase of Washington Post for $250M.
§ 2015: Releases Alexa & Payment. Awarded Golden Globe.
§ 2017: Net worth +$80 Billion. 2nd wealthiest person.Photo Source: Google Images

THE TRILLION DOLLAR START-UP
“Over the last two decades, we’ve collected a large
group of like-minded people. Folks who find our
approach energising and meaningful….customer
obsession rather than competitor obsession,
eagerness to invent and pioneer, willingness to fail,
the patience to think long-term and the taking of
professional pride in operational excellence.”

JeffreyBlackman
SVP, Business
Development
Andrew Jassy
CEO AWS
Brian Olasavsky
SVP & CFO
JeffreyWilke
CEO Worldwide
Consumer
David Zapolsky
SVP, General
Counsel & Secretary
LEADERSHIP: KEY EXECUTIVE OFFICERS
Shelley Reynolds
VC, Worldwide Controller,&
Principal Accounting Officer
Diego Piacentini
SVP International
Jeff Bezos
President, CEO &
Chairman of the Board
Experienced and innovative leadership team around a omnipresent CEO that drives strategy and culture.

14 LEADERSHIP PRINCIPLES
Source: Amazon.jobs
1. Customer Obsession
Leaders start with the customer and work backwards. They work vigorously to
earn and keep customer trust. Although leaders pay attention to competitors, they
obsess over customers.
2. Ownership
Leaders are owners. They think long term and don’t sacrifice long-term value for
short term results. They act on behalf of the entire company, beyond just their
own team. They never say “that’s not my job."
3. Invent and Simplify
Leaders expect and require innovation and invention from their teams and always
find ways to simplify. They are externally aware, look for new ideas from
everywhere, and are not limited by “not invented here." As we do new things, we
accept that we may be misunderstood for long periods of time.
4. Are Right, A Lot.
Leaders are right a lot. They have strong business judgment and good instincts.
5. Hire and Develop the Best
Leaders raise the performance bar with every hire and promotion. They recognize
exceptional talent, and willingly move them throughout the organization. Leaders
develop leaders and take seriously their role in coaching others.
6. Insist on the Highest Standards
Leaders have relentlessly high standards - many people may think these
standards are unreasonably high. Leaders are continually raising the bar and
driving their teams to deliver high quality products, services and processes.
Leaders ensure that defects do not get sent down the line and that problems are
fixed so they stay fixed.
7. Think Big
Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Leaders create and communicate a
bold direction that inspires results. They think differently and look around corners
for ways to serve customers.
8. Bias for Action.
Speed matters in business. Many decisions and actions are reversible and do not
need extensive study. We value calculated risk taking.
9. Frugality
We try not to spend money on things that don’t matter to customers. Frugality
breeds resourcefulness, self-sufficiency, and invention. There are no extra points
for headcount, budget size, or fixed expense.
10. Vocally Self Critical
Leaders do not believe their or their team’s body odor smells of perfume. Leaders
come forward with problems or information, even when doing so is awkward or
embarrassing. Leaders benchmark themselves and their teams against the best.
11. Earn Trust of Others
Leaders are sincerely open-minded, genuinely listen, and are willing to examine
their strongest convictions with humility.
12. Dive Deep
Leaders operate at all levels, stay connected to the details, and audit frequently.
No task is beneath them. Have Backbone;
13. Disagree and Commit
Leaders are obligated to respectfully challenge decisions when they disagree,
even when doing so is uncomfortable or exhausting. Leaders have conviction and
are tenacious. They do not compromise for the sake of social cohesion. Once a
decision is determined, they commit wholly.
14. Deliver Results
Leaders focus on the key inputs for their business and deliver them with the right
quality and in a timely fashion. Despite setbacks, they rise to the occasion and
never settle

WORK HARD, HAVE FUN AND MAKE HISTORY CULTURE
Source: Glassdoor. Amazon.jobs. eMarketer.
“We're a company of pioneers. It's our job to
make bold bets, and we get our energy from
inventing on behalf of customers. Success is
measured against the possible, not the
probable. For today’s pioneers, that’s exactly
why there’s no place on Earth they’d rather
build than Amazon.”
“We are made up of small teams with single
threaded owners, enabling rapid innovation.”
“Our Leadership Principles aren’t just a pretty
inspirational wall hanging. These Principles
work hard, just like we do. Amazonians use
them, every day, whether they’re discussing
ideas for new projects, deciding on the best
solution for a customer’s problem, or
interviewing candidates. It’s just one of the
things that makes Amazon peculiar.”
For 341K employees, Amazon is demanding, intense and innovative. Changing the world is not for everyone!
Amazon, at its worse,
can be overwhelming,
intense and stressful
forcing people to leave
to create balance.
+ -
88
117
154
231
341
Employees
2012-16 (000s)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

JeffreyBlackman
SVP Business Development
& Entertainment
Andrew Jassy
CEO AWS
JeffreyWilke
CEO Worldwide
Consumer
SUCCESSION PLAN
Amazon has a secret succession plan. Future options to try & fill Jeff’s enormous shoes include 2X Jeff, Andrew & David.
The Analyst
Started 1999.
Princeton & MIT MBA.
Considered irreplaceable.
Leads the entire consumer
business globally.
Previously led the core e-
commerce business in North
America and has also led
operations and customer service.
The Driver
Started 1997.
Harvard MBA.
High-profile role leading the
successful & profitable AWS.
AWS is among Bezos’s top
interests & proudest
achievements.
The Developer
Started 1998.
Stanford MBA.
Part of Bezos’s inner circle of
trusted advisers.
Leads business development,
which encompasses a lot of
things, including acquisitions.
He has led product development
and operations.
The Creator
Started 2010.
Leads the hardware
business at Amazon,
overseeing the development
of everything from the
Kindle to the Fire phone to
the Amazon Echo device.
Bezos loves Amazon’s
device business.
Source: Recode
David Limp
SVP Products & Services

Source: Amazon Annual Reports
“Our mission is to be the Earth’s most
customer-centric company, where
customers can find and discover anything
they might want to buy online, and endeavors
to offer its customers the lowest possible
prices.” This goal continues today, but
Amazon’s customers are worldwide now, and
have grown to include millions of Consumers,
Sellers, Content Creators, and Developers &
Enterprises. Each of these groups has
different needs, and we always work to meet
those needs, innovating new solutions to
make things easier, faster, better, and more
cost-effective.”

GUIDING DIRECTION
Source: Amazon Annual Report
The first letter to Shareholders twenty years ago serves as a guiding reminder of Amazon’s
purpose to innovate, obsess about customers and deliver long term value.

AMAZON’S BUSINESS MODEL
Key Partners Key Activities Value Proposition Customer Relationships Customer Segments
§ Suppliers and
manufacturers
§ Network of sellers
§ Publishers
§ Logistic partners
§ Affiliates
§ Writers & Video
Production
§ Hardware producers
§ Engineering
§ User design
§ Production
§ Merchandising
§ Business development
§ Content creation
§ Cloud computing
§ Lowest price
§Widest range
§Convenience
§Seamless payment
§Fast fulfilment
§Compelling relevant
content (video, music &
books)
§ Direct digital relationships
§ Self service
§ Automated service
§ Personalised
§ Prime membership
§ Marketplace, Prime and
AWS
§ Mass Market
§ Members
§ North America &
International
§ Enterprise &
Government for AWS
Key Resources Distribution Channels
§ Human web application &
development
§ Technology infrastructure
that supports channels
§ Physical warehouses
§ Distribution assets
§ Intellectual property
§ Amazon.com
§ Mobile apps
§ Affiliates
§ Kindle
§ Streaming services
§ Alexa/echo/dash
Cost Structure Revenue Streams
§ IT infrastructure
§ Technology and content
§ Fulfilment
§ Marketing
§ Cost of Goods and Headcount
§ Capital (machinery/equipment) & leases
§ Commission on retailer Sales
§ Marketplace advertising
§ Prime monthly subscription fees
§ Streaming or download fees for Studios & e-Books
§ Fees for cloud computing services
§ Acquisition and investments
An evolving, adaptive, innovativebusiness model that reinvests all profits into innovation for long term value.

STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
1. Expand
Marketplace
Expand our primary source of revenue (Marketplace for a wide range of products and services
to customers) focusing on North America, UK and Germany whilst expanding into attractive new
global markets prioritising India. Turn inventory quickly to enable a strong cash-generating
operating cycle.
2. Develop Key
Platforms
Develop the Marketplace, Prime and Amazon Web Services platforms, focusing on long term,
sustainable growth in free cash flow. Develop a fourth new platform driving Alexa, nurturing
Studios, experimenting with Fresh and Go and extending Payments.
3. Improve Customer
Experience
Invest in technology and content, including AWS, and the expansion of new and existing
product categories and services offerings,as well as in technology infrastructureto enhance the
customer experience and improve process efficiencies.
4. Reinvest
Efficiencies
Leverage our scale to reduce our variable cost per unit & leverage fixed costs to reinvest in
innovation.
5. Develop
Innovation Culture
Continueto develop an innovative, customer obsessed, frugal and learning culture strengthening
our data, business development, engineering, user design and merchandising capabilities to
support expansion.
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
Amazon has 5 key strategic choices supporting 3 existing platforms and the developing new platforms, products & markets.

CORE INNOVATIONS
Amazon leverages core capabilities to deliver wider ranges, cheaper prices, more convenience and faster delivery.
Core Capabilities
Product
Management
User Design Software
Engineering
Logistics
Execution
Data Science, Machine
Learning & AI
Strategic Partnerships
Innovation Platforms
Better Cheaper
Cloud Computing
Personalised
Content
Fast Fulfilment Life Admin
Extreme
Convenience

Source: Venture Scanner
ACQUISITIONS
Data
Software
Books
Technology
Education
Technology
Retail
Technology
Display
Technology
Finance
Technology
Video
Technology
GamingArtificial
Intelligence
IoT Cloud
Venture Scanner has identified Amazon’s key acquisitions across key capabilities to support Strategy.

Acquiring Souq.com ($800M) to enter Middle
East (6 Gulf Arab states & Egypt) mid 2017s
Expand organically into Australia with local
fulfilment late 2017
Investing $5B in India to challenge Flipcart for
marketplace leadership
14 local sites in key markets. Offer 10M
products delivered to 75 countries

BEING EVERYONE’S ENEMY IS EXHAUSTING
Amazon is disrupting the world’s largest incumbents.

“Marketplace, Prime and Amazon Web Services
are three big ideas. We’re lucky to have them,
and we’re determined to improve and nurture
them – make them better for customers. You can
count on us to work hard to find a fourth. We’ve
already got a number of candidates in work, and
as we promised some twenty years ago, we’ll
continue to make bold bets. With the
opportunities unfolding in front of us to serve
customers better through innovation, we
assure you we won’t stop trying.”

“Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while
making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected
after 2020. Amazon has an unusual approach to time (resolute focus on
distant horizon) and the sheer breadth of its activities.”

14.8 19.2 24.5
34.2
48.1
61.1
74.5
89
107
136
165
199
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Net Sales
$Billions 2007 - 2018F
REVENUE GROWTH
Source: Amazon Company Reports
△27%
△20%
△19%
△21%
△21%
Consistent sustained revenue growth of ~20% generating $136Bin 2016 across 300 customers.

54.2
62.8
71.6
88.3
8.6
10.8
13.4
17.6
3.1
4.3
5.3
7.2
6.6
9.3
12.5
16.1
2013 2014 2015 2016
Cost of Sales Fulfilment Marketing Technology/Content General/Admin Other
Operating Expenses
$ Billions 2013 - 2016
OPERATING EXPENSES
Mix
△11.8%
△5.3%
△13%
▽64.9%
Strong focus on reducing Cost of Sales to offset Fulfilment and Technology investments that are growing faster than revenue.

PROFITABILITY
0.48
0.65
0.9
1.2
0.6
0
0.3
-0.02
0.6
2.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Income
$Billions 2007 - 2016
0.7
0.97
1.2
1.5
1
0.64 0.65
0.1
2
4.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EBITDA
$Billions 2007 - 2016
Despite growing revenue and scale, Amazon’s Net Income and EBITDA remain low and below peers as they reinvest in growth.

50.8
63.7
79.8
33.5
35.4
44
4.6
7.9
12.2
2014 2015 2016
Net Sales by Segment ($B) Net Income by Segment ($M)
North America 59%
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
International 32%
AWS 9%
360
1425
2361
-640 -699
-1283
458
1507
3108
2014 2015 2016
North America
International
AWS
International is expected to grow faster than North America requiring significant investment levels whilst
AWS is the most profitable platform generating +25% Net Income Margins.

BALANCE SHEET
Liabilities are growing faster than Assets. $26BCash on the Balance Sheet but high levels of Payables. Current ratio is 1.04.
18.8
25.3
32.6
40.2
54.5
64.8
83.4
11.9
17.5
24.4
30.4
43.8
51.4
64.1
6.9
7.8
8.2
9.7
10.7
13.4
19.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Assets
Liabilities
Shareholders Equity
Assets, Liabilities & Equity
$ Billions 2010 - 2016
Cash/ST Investments 26
Receivables 8.3
Inventories 11.5
Land 14
Machinery 26
Payables 25.3
Accrued Expenses 13.7
Deferred Revenue 4.8
Lease Obligations 7.5

MARKETPLACE WORKING CAPITAL
Source: Data from Amazon Company Reports
Amazon’s working capital is strong, driven by long payment terms, with the position improving over the last 3 years.
Inventory
Turnover
48.3
Receivable
Turnover
24.3
Payable Turnover 95.7
2014
Inventory
Turnover
52.2
Receivable
Turnover
20.8
2015
Inventory
Turnover
47.4
Receivable
Turnover
24.6
2016
23.1
days
30.9
days
32.9
days
In 2016 Amazon turned inventory every 47 days, received payment in 25 days and paid for inventory in 105 days
creating a positive funding gap so no cash or financing facilities were required to fund sales/collection and payment.
Average Inventory, Receivable and Payables Turnover
Average Days 2014 - 2016

Market Capitalisation ($B)
31 December 1997 – 15 May 2017
COMPANY VALUE
Source: NASDAQ
$182
$144
$323
$459
Amazon’s share price has significantly outperformed all retailers on the S&P over the last decade.
Share Price ($)
May 1997 – 15 May 2017

“Amazon has access to the
cheapest capital in the
history of modern business
and built a fulfilment network
where they can get almost
everything you need. They
have replaced profits with
vision and growth”
Scott Gallaway Professor NYU & Founder
L2 Inc
Photo Source: Google Images.

S&P 500 Companies with Above Average Revenue Growth
Past 5 Years
56%
50%
37%
32% 30%
26% 25% 25%
22% 21% 19% 18% 18%
Source: L2 Inc. S&P Global Market Intelligence, USA Today Research.
Technology B2B
Technology Algorithm
Outsourcing
Health
FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES
Amazon has been one of the top performing stocks over the last 5 years.

Source: L2 Inc. SEC Filings and Company Announcements
2016 Revenue vs Net Income ($Millions)
136000
90300
27600
5500
532 4042400
19500
10200
-3000
14
-515
VISION & GROWTH OVER PROFITABILITY
Whilst Google & Facebook have generated Revenue Growth and strong Profitability,Amazon is leading a new
wave of high growth companies who reinvest everything to establish leadership at all cost.
The market will buy Amazon’s vision as along
as they maintain their incredible growth
performance. If growth slows, the market will
expect profitability and a return on their
capital…and then the game changes.

“It’s hard competing with someone that does not want to make money.”
Mickey Drexler CEO J Crew

GROWTH OVER PROFITABILITY
Source: Amazon & WalMart Company Reports
1.2
0.6
0 0.3 0.6
2.4
14.9
17
16.4
17.8
16.7 17.1
15.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Income
$Billions 2010 - 2016
Amazon plays by different rules vs incumbents like Walmart with investors valuing growth over profitability.

MARKET CAPITALISATION COMPARISONS
228
75
27
29.5
17.2
14.6
15.7
$459
Leading US &
European
Retailers
Source: Yahoo Finance
Market Capitalisation
15 May 2017
US$ Billions
Amazon’s market capitalisation exceeds the world’s largest Discounters, Supermarkets and Department Stores combined.

RISK FACTORS
Intense competition.
Expansion places significant strain on Management,
Operational, Financial and Other Resources.
Expansion into new products, services,
technologies and geographic regions
subjects us to additional business, legal
financial and competitive risks.
Significant fluctuations in our operating
results, growth rate and stock price.
Not successfully optimise and operate our
fulfilment network and data centres.
Unsuccessful making, integrating, and
maintaining commercial agreements, strategic
alliances and other business relationships.
Unsuccessful making, integrating, and
maintaining acquisitions and investments.
Foreign exchange.
Loss of key senior
management personnel.
Data loss or other security breaches.
System interruption and lack of
redundancy.
Significant inventory risk.
Not adequately protect our intellectual
property rights or infringe other’s rights.
Unfavourable changes to
Government regulations.
Additional tax liabilities.
Payment risks, product liability claims
and unlawful activities by sellers.
Source: Amazon Annual Report
The larger and more disruptive you get, the more critical attention you attract!

“Anything, anytime anywhere. Marketplace
creates opportunities to reach buyers around the
world in 189 countries across 44 currencies.”

Sam Walton
(Wealthiest man of the 20th century)
Mastered the art of minimum wage employees
selling you stuff in warehouse stores.
Jeff Bezos
(Wealthiest man of the 21st century)
Mastering the science and algorithms of robots
to get stuff you want fast before you need it.
RETAIL’S TECTONIC SHIFT
Photo Source: Google Images. Quote Source: Adapted from Scott Galloway L2 Inc. 2016.
Scott Galloway (L2 Inc.) has defined the shift in Retail by contrasting Sam Walton & Jeff Bezos.

$894
$1,088
$1,233
$1,471 $1,548
$1,915
$48 $61 $74
$89 $107
$136
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: eMarketer. USA TODAY.
Global E-commerce & Amazon Sales($B)
7%
Share
Amazon sees massive opportunity to grow global share of a rapidly growing e-commerce market
“Many companies describe themselves as customer focused, but few walk the talk. Most big
companies are competitor focused. They see what others are doing, and then work to fast follow.”
AMAZON’S ONLINE OPPORTUNITY

AMAZON MARKETPLACE’S FLYWHEEL
Lower Cost
Structure
Lower
Prices
Selection &
Convenience
Customer
Experience
Traffic
Sellers
Growth
The marketplace platform has been fuelled by widest range, lowest prices and best convenience and is increasingly
supported by Prime membership which provides free fast Fulfilment,streamed Content (Video/Music) & Alexa services.
Prime
Membership
Free Fast Fulfilment
Video/Music
Alexa Services

AMAZON MARKETPLACE BREAKTHROUGH INNOVATIONS
Biggest Range
Cheapest
Pricing
One-Click
Purchase Innovation
Personalised
Recommendations
Prime
Membership
Product
Reviews
Free Delivery.
Free Returns
Amazon pioneered key e-commerce innovations that are the aspiration of their competitors.

Source: L2 Inc. Scott Galloway DLD 2017.
AMAZON LEADS PERSONALISATION
L2 Inc. have shared different onlineexperiences based upon your previous search or purchases informed by
Amazon’s behavioural targeting algorithms delivering higher conversion and order value.

5% 6% 7%
18%
27%
38%
45%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: L2 from Piper Jaffray, MWPL. Facebook. Twitter. US Census Bureau.
US Population living within 20
Miles of Fulfilment Centre
Amazon’s US Fulfilment Network
FULFILMENT INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLES FASTER DELIVERY.
Without a store network, Amazon has invested in Fulfilment centres to serve attractive markets faster & cheaper.

“They has mastered the chaos of storing tens of millions of products
and figuring out how to get them to people, on time, without fail, and
no one has come even close. And everywhere it kills jobs.”
Brad Stone Author The Everything Store
Image Source: Geek Wire

Invested $17.6 Billion in faster cheaper
fulfilment in 2016 (13% of Sales)

Amazon fulfilment innovation gets what
you need fast.

Amazon marketplace’s magical moment of truth

Amazon is experimenting with limited
Stores to showcase products

Amazon Go reimagines Convenience

Amazon Fresh Pick up reimagines Groceries

AMAZON PRIVATE LABEL CHALLENGING BRANDS
Amazon is disrupting Brands taking leadership share positions driven by search, order and price advantages.
Amazon’s Expanding
Owned Brands Categories
Amazon’s Owned Brands Leading
Category Shares
Source: Mashable 2016
Batteries 31% 21%
Diapers 47% 16%
Speakers 45% 16%
Health &
Beauty Everyday
Essentials
Clothing
Apparel

Payments innovation like Cash & Pay are focused on improving the purchase experience on Amazon and beyond.
Source: Amazon
AMAZON & BEYOND PAYMENT INNNOVATIONS
Click the Amazon Pay button on partner retailer sites to log in to your
Amazon account. An easy & trusted way to pay anywhere online.
Consumers without credit or in the cash economy can now
upload cash at a partner retailer to create an Amazon balance.

Source: Business Insider from Company Data.
CONSEQUENCES OF AMAZON’S DISRUPTION
Amazon is driving online and total retail growth and winning share at a time of significant store closures.
1000
552
250
240
171
170
160
138
120
110
108
88
70
70
68
60
60
42
30
Payless
Radioshack
The Limited
Family Christian
Wet Seal
Bebe
Crocs
JCPenney
BCBG
Amercian Apparel
Kmart
HHGregg
Staples
CVS
Macy's
Abercrombie & Fitch
Guess
Sears
Gander Mountain
Store Closures
US Retailers 2017
5%
43%
53%
24%
Share of Total Retail Value
Share of Online Retail Value
Share of Online Retail Growth
Share of Retail Growth
Amazon Share Position
US 2016

“Constitutionally oriented to securing every possible advantage for its
customers, setting the lowest possible prices, taking advantage of every
known tax loophole or creating new ones. They keep forcing your hand and
yet they don’t have a viable business model. If they had to behave in a
more conventional way (and pay tax) they would struggle.”
Mark Constantine Co-Founder Lush Cosmetics

Social, Video & Web Reach
31 March 2017
DIGITAL PRESENCE
Source: eMarketer
Amazon has grown massive social, video and web communities and reach.
7.9M
Followers
34.6M
Likes
207K
Subscribers
411K
Followers
1.72M
Followers
2.2M
Followers
463M
Views
2.37B
Website Visits

Amazon is the leading place to start product discovery onlinechallenging Google’s dominance.
2016
Amazon, 55%Search Engines,
28%
Brand or
Retailer Site,
12%
Other E-
commerce Site,
4%
Source: Activate Tech and Media Outlook 2017. L2 Inc.
PRODUCT SEARCH STARTS ON AMAZON

“The answer to the question ‘what
worries me when I go to bed at night
and wake up in the morning’ isn’t a
three-month-old child — it’s Amazon.”
Nobody in the online ad business has
more data about the way we shop,
how often we shop, and what items we
look at and decide not to buy.
Sir Martin Sorrell CEO WPP

34
15
2.5
1.3
0.4
Google Facebook Twitter Amazon Snap
Advertising Revenues
FY 2016 $B
Source: Business Insider. L2. Snap Inc. Amazon Company Reports.
North American Revenues
FY 2016 $B
Electronics &
Other General
Merchandise,
$64.9
Media: Books,
Music, Movies &
Games, $13.6
Advertising Sales
& Other, $1.3
AMAZON’S EMERGING AD BUSINESS
An opportunity exists to grow advertising revenues through display and search.

“Our scale and number of customers,
number of clicks, number of eyeballs
and new content – video content and
other opportunities for advertising has
really helped. It’s pretty early days with
advertising but we’re very pleased with
the team we have and the results.
Our goal is to be helpful to consumers
and enhance their shopping or their
viewing experience with targeted
recommendations.”
Brian Olsavsky CFO

“We want Prime to be such good
value, you’d be irresponsible not
to be a member.”

PRIME MEMBERSHIP OFFER
Source: Amazon.com
Prime offers free Fulfilment and Video, Music, Photos and Books services to drive conversion and retention.

PRIME MEMBERSHIP OPTIONS
Source: Amazon.com. SMH.
With 66M members, Prime creates value that competes against other Retailers, Netflix,Spotify, Pandora & Apple.
Customers in the US who sign up at an annual cost of $US99, receive free, two-day shipping on items; unlimited access to Amazon Prime Video, similar to
Netflix, with a library of movies and television shows; unlimited access to Prime Music, a music streaming service; the ability to borrow books from a
Kindle lending library; and access to a restaurant meal delivery service in major cities. Amazon Prime members can also access Prime Now, offering free
delivery within two hours in certain locations. For an extra $US14.99 a month you can get Amazon Fresh where you can order groceries from
supermarkets in major areas and have them delivered within 2 hours.

2
5
12
25
40
53
66
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Members ($M) Revenue Per Customer
$600
$1,100
$10,000
Non Member Prime Member Ambition
PRIME MEMBERSHIP & VALUE
Source: Business Insider. L2. Amazon Company Reports. Recode.
Prime represented 66M members and ~$72B sales across 20% of consumers in 2016. It is a key growth
platform towards Trillion Sales enabled by faster fulfilment and media/entertainment services.
Drivers
Faster fulfilment
Better pricing
Private Label Discounts
Video/Music streaming
Alexa

One hour delivery on 25K items across 30
cities, launched in 111 days. Free same-day
across 35 cities.
Two-day delivery across over 30M items in
US, UK & Germany. Sunday delivery added.

Photo Sources: Google Images
Access storage & books. Stream music & video

Source: Amazon.com. Seattle Times
“The idea of making deliveries
faster is in the DNA of the
company. When I started writing
the concept document for Prime
Now, I wrote that I wanted it to
feel like magic for a customer to
get something right to their door
in superfast speeds and we built
from there—I assembled a great
team and we worked hard to
launch fast... The future is now.
Customers are ready for it. ”
Stephanie Landry VP Amazon Prime Now

"When Amazon grows we grow”
David Potts CEO Morrisons
UK PRIME NOW: MORRISONS AT AMAZON
Prime Now customers can order one-hour deliveries. Orders
picked at local Morrisons store and delivered the same day by
Amazon within one hour for £6.99 or in a two-hour slot for free.

Warehouse in the skies
supply delivery Drones
New fulfilment technologies

6
@johnbatistich
THE FOURTH PLATFORM

A new big bet (experiment), Amazon has 2
thousand people working over the last 4 years
to create the Alexa platform & echo product.

“Alexa is primarily about identifying
tasks in the household that would
be improved by voice. (For
shopping) Alexa is good for
reordering consumables, where
you don’t have to make a lot of
choices.”

“Alexa, the voice service that powers Echo, provides
capabilities, or skills, that enable customers to interact with
devices in a more intuitive way using voice. Examples of
these skills include the ability to play music, answer
general questions, set an alarm or timer or order needs.
Alexa is built in the cloud, so it is always getting smarter.
The more customers use Alexa, the more she adapts to
speech patterns, vocabulary, and personal preferences.”

2.4
5.2
10
2015 2016 2017E
Echo Installed Households (M)
INCREASING ECHO ADOPTION & SKILLS
Skills Available
130
6068
10000
2015 2016 Feb-17
Source: Company Reports. Business Insider.
The Alexa platform was in 5M households through Echo in 2016 and is about to explode through Amazon’s
iphone mobile app with Android to follow. Skills are improving through usage and developer partnerships.

Echo is used for music and home automation and results in increases in spending by +10%.
84.9% 82.4%
66%
45.9%
40.9%
25%
34%
17%
31%
10%
Tell Time Play Music Read News Control Lights Shop/Order
Source: Experian, Creative Strategies (Based up on a survey of 180 Amazon Echo users conducted May 2016)
Echo Usage (%)
ECHO USE CASES
Tried once
Used frequently

ALEXA ACCELERATOR TO DEVELOP SKILLS & APPLICATIONS
Source: Amazon Alexa website
Amazon is supporting Skill development with Developers to win against Apple & Google.

ALEXA PLATFORM PARTNERS
Amazon is partnering to supply voice interface assistant services on key everyday products.

“Prime Video offers exclusives from some of the world’s most
passionate storytellers. These shows are great for customers, and
they feed the Prime flywheel – members who watch Prime Video
are more likely to convert from a free trial to a paid membership, and
more likely to renew their annual subscriptions.”

Photo Sources: Google ImagesPhoto Source: Google Images

DISRUPTING CONTENT TO DRIVE PRIME FLYWHEEL
Source: L2 Inc. via The Economist
$2.5
$4.0 $4.3 $4.5
$6.0
2017 Content Budgets ($B)
Amazon is investing at or above the level of incumbents in original content to drive acquisition and retention of
Prime membership.

“I feel like we’re competing with an
unusual person. Because Jeff’s there,
it’s kind of scary.”
Reed Hastings CEO Netflix

Photo Sources: Google Images
“Our focus is on bringing customers the best premium video
programming, when and how they want to watch it. Streaming Thursday
Night Football on Prime Video is a great step for us toward that vision, and
offers tremendous new value for Prime members around the world.”
Jeff Blackburn Senior Vice President, Business Development & Entertainment

“AWS has become the world’s most comprehensive, widely adopted
cloud service with more than a Million customers. AWS offers more
than 70 services: compute, storage, databases, analytics, mobile,
internet of things and enterprise applications”

AWS PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
Compute Storage NetworkingDatabase Developed
Tools
Analytics Content
Delivery
Game
Development
Internet of
Things
Mobile
Services
Management
Tools
Security &
Identity
Enterprise
Applications
Application
Services
Amazon
EC2, AWS
Elastic
Beanstalk.
Amazon S3,
Amazon EBS,
Amazon
Galcier.
Amazon
RDS,
Amazon
DynamoDB.
Amazon
Aurora
AWS Direct
Connect,
Amazon
Route 53.
AWS
CodeCommit
AWS
CodeDeploy.
Amazon
CloudWatch,
AWS Cloud
Formation.
AWS Identity
& Access
Management
(IAM).
Amazon
Kinesis,
Amazon
QuickSight.
Amazon
CloudFront.
AWS IoT. Amazon
Lumbaryard.
AWS Mobile
Hub, AWS
Device Farm.
Amazon
WorkDocs,
Amazon
Workmail.
Amazon API
Gateway,
Amazon
AppStream.
AWS Marketplace – Infrastructure Software, Business Software & Developer Tools
Source: Jitender Miglani.
From supporting Amazon Marketplace to the largest and most profitable cloud computing enterprise.

4.6
7.9
12.2
2014 2015 2016
AWS Net Sales ($B) Significant Product Features Released
Source: Amazon Company Reports.
61 82
159
280
516
722
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In only 11 years, AWS has grown to generate $12.2Bin Revenue and $3.1B in Net Income in 2016.
AWS REVENUE & INNOVATION

COMPETITIVE POSITION FOR CLOUD SERVICES
40%
25%
35%
Source: Gartner. L2 Inc from Synergy Research Group
2016
Other
AWS leads the global market for cloud computing in front of IBM, Google & Microsoft & Amazon’s most profitable division.
Gartner Cloud Infrastructure Comparisons Market Share ($)

POWERED BY AWS
AWS provides the cloud computing for some of the world’s most recognised organisations.
Source: AWS

16 PREDICTIONS
9
@johnbatistich

New offices in Seattle
ORGANISE BY PLATFORM & MARKET IN A MATRIX.
CENTRALISATION EVOLVES TO HUB WITH SPOKES.
Evolve the organisation design
devolving decision making from
Seattle closet to the Customer.
Focus on culture to guide behaviour
as the the company moves beyond
341K Employees.
Develop an Indian Spoke
(Bangalore) for Developing Markets.
Evolve from a powerful HQ to a Hub & Spoke organisational design to enable innovation as the organisation rapidly expands.
High Probability

AMAZON CREATES A GLOBAL SUPPLY NETWORK THAT
RIVALS INCUMBENTS TO IMPROVE FULFILMENT.
Continueto partner with
existing players like FedEx &
UPS for long haul delivery.
Invest to own the local delivery exploring on-demand delivery services.
Invest in logistics assets for key
markets to own last mile delivery.
Explore on-demand delivery
services like Uber or Deliv to
support fast low cost delivery.
Medium Probability

AMAZON COULD ACQUIRE RETAILERS WITH WIDE STORE
NETWORKS TO SUPPORT FAST LOCAL FULFILMENT.
Macy’s Department Stores
North America
+700 Locations
Fashion & Beauty
Carrefour Stores
Europe, Middle East, China & Indonesia
+1600 Hypermarket
Groceries & Convenience
7Eleven Stores
18 Countries
56,000 Stores
Convenience
Replaces the requirement for as many Fulfilment centres. Enables innovation like Fresh & Go with Supermarket ownership.
Source: Adapted from L2 Inc.
Low Probability

AMAZON LEADS SAME DAY DELIVERY AS THE NEW NORMAL.
Expand Fulfilment centres,
logistics network &/or establish
store network close to valuable
customers.
Expand same hour fulfilment of
Millions of products across the
top 50 cities through
crowdsource Amazon Flex
delivery.
Focus on optimising existing assets/partners and drive new technologies to deliver same day and same hour across key cities.
Pioneer new fulfilment
technologies to enable
same hour delivery.
High Probability

INDIA WILL BECOME AMAZON’S SECOND LARGEST MARKET.
Investing $5Bto establish
Marketplace leadership with
an ambition of $15B Sales.
Focused on India given
that Alibaba owns China
& Rakuten owns Japan.
Local model to enable
Millions of Sellers to engage
in eCommerce.
Amazon develops India for long term growth and leadership and uses the model to launch into developing markets.
High Probability

DRIVE OWNED & EXCLUSIVE BRANDS TO IMPROVE GP MARGIN
Amazon develops a wide range of private label products focused on Basics (CPG), Fashion, and Elements (Health & Beauty).
Health & Beauty
Clothing and Shoes
CPG
High Probability

AMAZON WILL DRISUPT PAYMENTS AND MAKE THE
EXPERIENCE OBSOLETE WITH ZERO-CLICK.
Grow the 33 Million customers
have used Amazon Payments.
Challenge PayPal & offer POS
credit products.
Move from one click to
eliminating payment.
Expanded payments
service through Europe.
Use payments already stored
by Amazon’s 300 Million
customers.
Amazon has an opportunity to provide payment and POS credit options to Prime members.
Medium Probability

AMAZON CREATES A GLOBAL CUSTOMER INTELLIGENCE
BUSINESS FOR MARKETPLACE PARTNERS.
Shares aggregated and
annomalised cross category
data insights to deliver growth
opportunities.
Develops a intelligence
business for partners and
Marketplace sellers.
Disrupts Research
companies with richer
cheaper intelligence.
Amazon will generate more intent and purchase data than any other company in history.
Medium Probability

Managed data
warehouse service.
DISRUPTS FINANCIAL SERVICES BY OFFERING PRIME
MEMBERS SIMPLER/CHEAPER LIFE ADMIN SERVICES.
Home and Content Insurance.Health and LifeInsurance. Provide financial & banking
services to Retailers and Prime
Members.
Provide simple, fair and better important but low involvement financial services to both Retailers and Prime Members.
High Probability

Develop a fourth platform
EXPAND AMAZON FRESH IN STRONG MARKETPLACE MARKETS
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH LOCAL SUPERMARKETS.
Deliver Groceries in an hour or
pick up in Store for free within
3 hours.
Penetrate UK. Expand
Fresh across US &
Germany.
Develop partnerships with local
Supermarket chains to scale
fulfilment using UK learnings.
Expand into Fresh where there is a strong Marketplace to drive frequency and customer value.
Medium Probability

Develop a fourth platform
AMAZON GO IS OPTIMISED AND REIMAGINES
SUPERMARKETS AND CONVENIENCE STORES.
Completely reorganises the
store design and economics.
Successful Seattle trial is
optimised and scaled.
Removes the entire payment
experience eliminating friction
delivering greater convenience.
Go gets rolled out in stages. Self service Supermarkets follow. Full service retail strengthens in reaction.
Medium Probability

Managed data
warehouse service.
AMAZON ALEXA BECOMES LEADING DIGITAL ASSISTANT
VOICE PLATFORM ACROSS A WIDE RANGE OF APPLICATIONS.
Wins against Apple’s Siri &
Google Home.
Partnership with everyday
services and products.
Offered on Mobile apps drives
usage out of home.
Reimagines the interface for repeatable information,home management and reordering consumables.
High Probability

AMAZON STUDIOS WILL BECOME THE LEADING CONTENT
CREATOR/DISTRIBUTOR DRIVING PRIME MEMBERSHIP.
Establish both Hollywood &
Bollywood Production.
Studios creates the compelling exclusive content that drives the Prime flywheel.
High Probability

PRIME WILL ACQUIRE RIGHTS TO STREAM LIVE SPORT TO
BRING THE BEST CONTENT & VALUE TO PRIME VIDEO.
Building on the NFL agreement, Amazon will acquire rights to the NBL & EPL & stream globally.
Expand live sport offer
targeting NBL & other North
American Sports.
Use the NFL Thursday Night
streaming deal to build the
model for live sport.
Move to the global sport
stage focussed on Football.
Medium Probability

AWS INTEGRATES SERVICES/ALEXA & PARTNERS WITH
ENTERPRISE SAAS. POSSIBLE SPIN OFF.
Deliver new Enterprise
products and services faster &
cheaper than competitors.
Expand markets and verticals
maintaining leadership position.
Acquire or Partner with leading
Enterprise Saas products to
deliver integrated cloud
Enterprise services.
AWS maintains its cloud computing leadership and integrates services for Enterprises.
Medium Probability

LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION ALLOWS JEFF TO STEP BACK FROM
CEO AS CHAIR TO MAKE MORE HISTORY.
The Earth is our starting place.
Space was childhood dream.
Driving private space
exploration with SpaceX.
Washington Post influence
acquired for $250Min 2013.
Humans in Space by next year
with an ambition to get to the
Moon & then onto Mars .
Jeff will support an operating leadership transition,stepping back from CEO to become Founder/Chair to fly to the Moon & back!.
High Probability

1. Becomes a matrix organisation focused on platforms and markets creating a hub (Seattle) & spoke (London, Munich &
Bangalore).
2. Creates a global supply network that rivals incumbents to lower costs & improve service.
3. Acquire retailers with a extensive store networks to support fast local fulfilment.
4. Lead fast flexible free fulfilment through unrivalled investment and innovation.
5. Expand into new international markets through both acquisition & organic. India becomes amazon’s second largest market.
6. Drive owned & exclusive brands (private label).
7. Disrupt payments and make the experience obsolete with zero-click.
8. Amazon creates a global customer intelligence business for partners & marketplace retailers.
9. Disrupt financial services by offering prime members with simpler cheaper integrated services.
10. Expand amazon fresh in strong marketplace markets in partnership with local supermarkets.
11. Optimise and roll-out amazon go to reimagines supermarkets & convenience stores.
12. Alexa becomes leading digital assistant voice platform across a wide range of applications beating Google/Apple.
13. Studios will become the leading content creator/distributor driving prime membership +100m.
14. Amazon acquires rights to live sport to further drive Prime membership.
15. AWS adds services, partners/acquire Enterprise Sass. Comes under pressure to spin off.
16. Amazon will start acting upon a succession plan signalling leadership depth beyond Jeff Bezos.
@johnbatistich
PREDICTIONS

HOW DOES AMAZON BECOME THE FIRST COMPANY
TO GET TO A ONE TRILLION VALUATION?
@johnbatistich
10

DRIVERS TO ONE TRILLION VALUATION?
$136B
$300B
$12
$60
$11
$15
$50
2023-2025
$50B EBITDA
2016
$12.5B EBITDA
AWS
Revenue
Doubles
Payments
Reaches PayPal’s
current Revenues
Search
Advertising
Reaches
Facebook’s current
Revenue from $1B
Prime
Membership grows to 100M up from 66M. Annual order value grows
from $1.1K to $3-5K driven by Faster Fulfilment, Media/Videos & Alexa
New Markets
India 15
Brazil 5
Asia 10
Europe 20
Australia/NZ 5
Other 10
Share leadership
Existing Markets
North America 30
Existing International 20
Online penetration
Grow share
$10
Efficiencies
Leverage
Scale
Fresh & Go
Expand US & UK and roll-out into new markets
$400B
MARKET
CAP.
$1 TRIILION
MARKET CAP.
Amazon has the platforms and levers to get to $300MRevenue which at a $50B EBITDA would see the first
Trillion Dollar Valuation.

AUTHOR/CURATOR
@johnbatistich
https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-batistich-14876222/

SOURCESAmazon.com
Annual Reports 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 & 2016
Amazon Company Reports
Amazon.Alexa
Amazon.jobs
AWS.com
L2 Inc. Scott Galloway
Business Insider
Venture Scanner
S&P Global Market Intelligence
USA Today Research
Citi Research
sMarketer
Mashable
Jitender Miglani
Tomando
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