Using Data Analytics to Bridge the Gap between M&V 1.0 and 2.0
- 1. Using Data Analytics to Bridge the Gap between M&V 1.0 and 2.0 Paul Dobrowsky ERS
- 2. WHY DO WE NEED MORE M&V?
- 3. A Framework for Comparing M&V 1. What happened? – Precision 2. Why did it happen? – Insights 3. Can we apply the insights? – Timeliness 4. And ideally...it’s cost effective – Cost Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 4. Presentation Roadmap Current Methods • Traditional M&V (IPMVP A/B) • M&V 2.0 (AMI) A New Way Forward? • EDGE M&V • Example - Con Edison EDGE M&V • How does it stack up?
- 5. Some Quick Caveats…. • All methods are examined under the lens of the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector • Different bar heights represent a qualitative, not quantitative, appraisal of the relative strengths in each category
- 6. Traditional M&V • Precision: Directly coupled with cost through site visits • Insights: Granular data collection…on a small sample of sites • Timeliness: Begins after program life cycle • Cost: Site visit focus is costly Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 7. M&V 2.0 • Analysis of AMI billing data • No on-site presence • Results can approach real-time Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ?
- 8. M&V 2.0 - Precision Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ? • “Big Data” analytics – can analyze a larger number of sites • Issues finding clean/representative data – significant data processing
- 9. M&V 2.0 - Insights Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ? • Reliance on large aggregate analysis and full building data can make it difficult to parse outcomes
- 10. M&V 2.0 - Timeliness Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ? • Data is readily available through utility platform, analysis results can begin percolating once projects are installed
- 11. M&V 2.0 - Cost Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ? • Large amount of data processing/cleaning • Costs decoupled from number of projects in analysis group
- 12. Can We Bridge the Gap? • Traditional is reliable, but insights come too late. • Insights tied to small number of projects. • Cost scales directly with desired precision. Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ?
- 13. Can We Bridge the Gap? • M&V 2.0 theoretically scales well and brings answers on performance more quickly. • Lacks the depth and granularity for individual measure-level insight. • Jury still out on precision. Precision Insights Timeliness Cost ?
- 14. Precision Insights Timeliness Cost Can We Bridge the Gap? Neither approach fits every need! ?
- 15. EDGE M&V • Energy-focused • Deep • Granular • Evaluation M&V
- 16. EDGE M&V • Tracking Data: Coordination with Implementation • Predictive Features: Flexible (past M&V, AMI…)
- 17. EDGE M&V • Automated processing of tracking data • Engineer oversight
- 18. EDGE M&V • Initial Validation: Past M&V Data • Ongoing validation: Additional Post-Install M&V
- 19. EDGE M&V • Results as real-time as Tracking availability • Work with PA to make model work for them
- 20. EDGE M&V Implementation • BQDM target: More than 52 MW of demand reduction at peak hours • Primarily through SBDI lighting projects • Over 4,000 businesses effected so far • Regulator requires quarterly reporting on achieved reductions
- 21. EDGE M&V Implementation • Completed in 2015 • Over 400 loggers characterizing SBDI lighting behavior • Structured by space type and business demographics • Added additional structure to tracking data to allow for data transformation • Improved to weekly reporting of installations • Unique opportunity to utilize an EDGE approach!
- 22. EDGE M&V Implementation • Delivered five-day turnaround on impact of over 1,500 businesses in 2016 • Leveraging findings to plan future implementation Initial Validation 5% Absolute Precision Final Validation Results coming in March!
- 23. EDGE M&V • Measure-level modeling • Flexible data sources • Continuous impact reporting through integration with tracking data Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 24. EDGE M&V - Precision • Utilize past M&V data to construct model • Measure-level modeling on predictive factors provides precision similar to Traditional M&V Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 25. EDGE M&V - Insights • Granular analysis of measure-level we can learn how impacts are trending Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 26. EDGE M&V - Timeliness • Impact projections are available as implementation tracking data updates • Requires cooperation/coordination with implementation contractor Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 27. EDGE M&V - Cost • Limited additional site work • Costs are decoupled from precision, allows focus to shift to realizing value of insights Precision Insights Timeliness Cost
- 28. Methods Overview EDGE M&V M&V 2.0 Traditional M&V ?
- 29. Final Takeaways • Current M&V methods don’t allow us to unlock value – M&V is a cost center • EDGE M&V merges speed and cost effectiveness with measure-level focus • Decouple cost from Precision and the focus shifts to Insights
- 30. Questions? Paul Dobrowsky Engineer – Data Analytics pdobrowsky@ers-inc.com
Editor's Notes
- #20: But this is more than a theoretical framework…..
- #21: Needed quarterly results, to meet tthat challenge we created and EDGE MV solution. Utilizing load study of SBDI and MF pop that included > 3000 loggers completed at the beginning of BQDM that formed the backbone of this model
- #22: Needed quarterly results, to meet tthat challenge we created and EDGE MV solution. Utilizing load study of SBDI and MF pop that included > 3000 loggers completed at the beginning of BQDM that formed the backbone of this model
- #29: Bar charts with strengths weakness table? Just S/W table? I would like to show the all side by side once