View From The Other Side
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1) The document discusses the difference between change and decline in a company's financial results and the importance for credit managers to properly assess which situation a customer may be experiencing. 2) It provides questions that credit managers should ask themselves and their customers to determine if the company is undergoing temporary change or irreversible decline. 3) The document emphasizes that understanding the customer's perspective, liquidity situation, and access to capital is key to making the right decision about whether to continue doing business with them.
View From The Other Side
- 1. View from the Other Side Alfred Artis VP Finance The Sharper Image
- 2. Agenda Genesis of this topic Change versus Decline What it takes to know the difference What the vendor knows that you don’t know Questions Credit Managers should ask themselves Questions Credit Managers should ask the customer Actual Questions and Comments from Credit Professionals
- 3. Why this Topic? Experience as a Credit Professional who constantly ponders the role of the Credit Professional Learnings from being a Banker Current real-time experience Perfect alignment with other topics in this Conference Jodi allowed me to change topics!
- 4. Change versus Decline Change: Decisions and actions made and taken by management that yield financial results different from prior periods Examples: Selling strategy, product mix, staffing, IT platform, executive changes, M&A, payment policies Note: Change is not a guarantee of success or failure. It is the impetus to review the situation, not make a final decision.
- 5. Change versus Decline Irreversible Decline: Negative revenue, profit, or liquidity that was caused by change or inaction and that cannot be reversed due to lack of liquidity Example: Revenue decline due to loss of customer base, margin decline due to competition, failed acquisition, overspending on wrong inventory or capital assets
- 6. Change versus Decline Reversible Decline: Negative results that left the company with enough cash or financing to continue operations for another fiscal year Note: This is Alfred’s definition (patent pending) The key for the credit professional is to assess change versus decline accurately…
- 7. What Credit Professionals Need to Know—a Debtor’s view The origin of the change in results from prior period, even if the results are good Whether Management knows if the company is undergoing change or a decline (I can’t stress this enough!) Management’s plan Real-time balance sheet information plus…
- 8. What Credit Professionals Need to Know—a Debtor’s view The debtor’s access to capital—in real, verifiable dollars and not hopes and dreams; no cash and no access means no reversal How long the debtor can last—not a simple cash burn test, but cash burn plus access as defined above Note: I personally guarantee that you will always make the wrong decision if you do not consider the above bullets. Why?
- 9. What the Customer Knows that You don’t Know The set-in of change long before you do Conditions under which change becomes irreversible decline—this is the key to all risk analysis Its realistic access to capital Its own payment priorities—you will be surprised at how high up the priority chain a vendor can be
- 10. What the Customer Knows that You don’t Know How he or she assesses your behavior and collections patterns: supportive or harmful Whether your questions are germane to the situation Whether he or she intends to do business with you in the future—this can be driven by behavior and collections patterns The complete list of supportive and harmful vendors So what is the Credit Professional to do? Ask a bunch of questions first…
- 11. Questions Credit Professionals Should Ask Themselves Am I here to avoid risk or manage risk? Do I even want to know whether my customer is undergoing change or decline? Refreshingly, some creditors don’t want to know, and they are still supportive. Am I willing to take the time to try to understand the situation? and…
- 12. Questions Credit Professionals Should Ask Themselves Do I want this company to want to do business with me in the future if their situation is undergoing change and not decline? Do I have an exit strategy? What information do I need in order to make my decision? Note: If all the information you need is on a message board, then please proceed to the “Cash In Advance as a Credit Tool” session. But where do I go to get the information?
- 13. Questions Credit Managers Should Ask the Customer May we enter into a Confidentiality Agreement? This opens up a world of information to you, but don’t ask for it if you have already made up your mind. All questions that follow can only truly be answered under confidentiality. Why shouldn’t I be concerned about the information in front of me? What is your Plan B? plus…
- 14. Questions Credit Managers Should Ask the Customer What is your current liquidity situation? Are you in compliance with your debt agreement? What is your current A/P aging profile? Am I an important vendor to you? Is there anything you want to propose?
- 15. Actual Credit comments and questions I placed you on credit hold because I heard you are filing bankruptcy in three weeks. Yes, I agree that you have never paid late and that you presently owe us nothing, but you could go out of business. My credit insurer won’t let me extend credit to you. Wait, there’s more…
- 16. Actual Credit comments and questions I will give you a credit line if you wire me the payment when the order is ready to ship. I will extend you credit if you issue me a standby letter of credit. I called to talk to you, but my mind is already made up. And more…but that make sense…
- 17. Actual Credit comments and questions I believe the risk situation has changed, so I want to see if you can stretch out your orders. Can we review your inventory levels before we release more orders? This recent press release concerns me. Can someone help me understand how this is going to affect your company? plus…
- 18. Actual Credit comments and questions How about if we keep terms on all existing orders, but go cash-in-advance on new orders? I believe I understand your situation, but our risk appetite is not there, so we respectfully ask for some type of credit support. If you can bring your account current now, then it will show me that you have liquidity and we can keep the terms. Do you have a payment plan that you want to propose? And the #1 best question/answer-to-its-own-question combo of all time…
- 19. Actual Credit comments and questions Am I going to get paid? If you are telling me that we are going to get paid, then I don’t have a problem.
- 20. Conclusion A change in results does not mean irreversible decline. Knowing the difference is what distinguishes the credit professional from the stereotype of a non-thinking, negative-attitude employee who does not support the growth goals of the company. Credit professionals who ask the right questions of themselves and of the customer always get good results. Two-way communication is the key if creditors honestly want to work with vendors undergoing change. Go under NDA! Now, let’s talk…