Week 1 meteorological hazard and risk assessments
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Cyclone Nargis caused catastrophic damage when it struck Myanmar in 2008. Over 138,000 people were killed and millions were left homeless. Disaster preparedness was extremely weak with no early warning system, shelters, or evacuation plans. Warnings underestimated the storm's strength. Relief efforts were slowed initially as Myanmar's military government resisted international aid. The ASEAN-led coordinating mechanism, including the Tripartite Core Group, helped bridge this and set up an effective response, issuing visas for aid workers and coordinating rebuilding efforts. This model provided lessons for coordinating responses where politics complicate relief operations.
Week 1 meteorological hazard and risk assessments
- 2. (Comfort,2007) cognition • Detection of risk • recognition and interpretation of risk for the immediate context and how to deal with. communication communication of risk to multiple organizations in a wider region coordination organization and mobilization of a collective control community response system to reduce risk and respond to danger 4Cs intergovernmental crisis management system
- 3. Small boats should remain moored onshore.
- 4. Formed 27 April 2008 Dissipated 3 May 2008 Highest winds 3-minute sustained: 165 km/h 1-minute sustained: 215 km/h
- 5. When Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar 10 years ago, 140,000 lives were lost and 800,000 were displaced. The category 4 storm slammed into Myanmar’s low-lying Irrawaddy Delta, • People were unprepared for what happened. Ninety percent of housing in some villages destroyed. • Millions of people injured, hungry and homeless. More than 700,000 homes were fully or partially destroyed. Nearly 75 percent of health clinics were destroyed.
- 7. CYCLONE NARGIS WARNINGS WERE INADEQUATE Disaster preparedness was extremely weak no early warning system, shelters or evacuation plans Advance warnings grossly underestimated the wind speeds and storm surge.
- 9. CYCLONE NARGIS: The storm's 165 km/h winds blew the roofs off hospitals, downed trees, and cut electricity to the 6.5 million in Yangon. Storm surge and torrential rain caused local flooding. 138,373 Death toll • FIVE REGIONS WERE DECLARED DISASTER ZONES. • THE INITIAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE WAS SLOW, PARTLY BECAUSE THE EXTENT OF THE DISASTER WAS GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATED. • THE RULING MILITARY JUNTA WAS SLOW IN ASSESSING THE NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE
- 10. USING WATER FOR A SHOWER BUDDHIST MONKS CLEARING ROAD CYCLONE NARGIS: DOWNED TREES: TAKING SHELTER IN A BUDDHIST TEMPLE
- 11. MYANMAR, ALSO KNOWN AS BURMA, HAS BEEN UNDER MILITARY RULE SINCE 1962. 46 years
- 12. Relief efforts were slowed for political reasons as Myanmar's military rulers initially resisted large-scale international aid. But Myanmar's military junta finally accepted aid UN agencies ASEAN provide urgent relief through the framework of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER). Myanmar government agreed to work in coordination with the ASEAN Secretariat to assemble and deploy an ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment Team (ERAT), made up of government officials, disaster management experts and NGOs from member countries.
- 13. The structures ASEAN helped to set up to bridge the void between Myanmar and the world community could provide a model for other regional blocs in areas where responses to crises or conflicts are hampered by complex politics, according to aid workers and analysts.
- 14. Close negotiation with the Myanmar/Burma Ministers for Foreign Affairs and Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, appealing for quick admission for more ASEAN relief and rescue teams. Similar As Indonesian Bureau for Recovery and Reconstruction Agency of Aceh and Nias, Indonesia (BRR), to offer assistance based on the agency’s experience in the post-Indian Ocean Tsunami operation. “Consensus, Negotiation and recommendation” A UN-led mechanism for relief and reconstruction effort in Myanmar. An ASEAN-led mechanism The ‘Responsibility to Protect’ would be invoked, the international community would deliver aid without authorisation.
- 15. ASEAN- Led Coordinating Mechanism ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force Tripartite Core Group (TCG) 2008-2010 Government of Myanmar Representatives of UNRepresentatives of ASEAN “Consensus, Negotiation and recommendation”
- 16. ASEAN’s role in the Cyclone Nargis response: implications, lessons and opportunities ROLE OF TCG
- 17. The issuance of 3,833 visas for humanitarian workers. Livelihoods rehabilitation, infrastructure reconstruction and disaster risk reductionthrough the ASEAN Volunteer Programme People’s access to safe drinking water and storing water had improved Agriculture, job, small business were restorated. THE OUTCOMES OF TCG
- 18. Myanmar had shifted its stance Led to mutual cooperation ASEAN’s AHTF in line with AADMER Initially TCG was planned to be operational at least until December 2008, but was further extended to 2010.
- 19. (Comfort,2007) cognition • Detection of risk • recognition and interpretation of risk for the immediate context and how to deal with. communication communication of risk to multiple organizations in a wider region coordination organization and mobilization of a collective control community response system to reduce risk and respond to danger
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- 21. Storm surge Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a cyclone. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
- 22. If Storm Surge hit Bangkok ในปี 2008 Dr.Smith Thammasaroj was predicted storm surge might BKK Prone area are - Phranakorn zone from Bangna to Samutprakarn might affected 0.20–1.00m. high tide - Thonburi zone which able to separated into 2 zone as Bangkhuntian and Thungkru might affected 1.00 – 3.00 m. high tide. While North zone of Thungkru Jomthong Ratburana to Phraram2 might affected 0.20 – 1.00 m. high tide.
- 23. When Storm Surge hit certainly, floodBanner advertising must be collapse down How to coping with Storm ?
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- 26. - Learn how to use CB or walkie talkie radio. - Understand disaster mechanism then estimate the effect. - monitor and interpret weather forecast and warning. Preparedness
- 27. - Collect contact list of important organization - In case of emergency, Evacuate ! Make sure that you already shut down the electricity system in the house. - You might know where is the safe place and risk place. Preparedness
- 29. 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝐻𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑 ∗ 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 ∗ 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 Disaster risk “the potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, and capacity”. (UNISDR Global Assessment Report 2015.) Risk = disaster effect / coping capacity
- 30. Disaster Risk Assessment Formula Risk = hazard(h) x 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(v) x Exposure(e) capacity(C)
- 31. Risk Balance force Risk = Hazard&Exposure1/3 × Vulnerability1/3 x Lack of coping capacity1/3 LACK OF COPING CAPACITY EXPOSURE HAZARD VULNERABILITY Socio-economic
- 32. Thailand Disaster risk assessement ที่มา : http://www.inform-index.org/Countries/Country-Profile-Map
- 33. What do you call the Position of this glass ? UNSAFE Which object is the most risk? A.Table B.Glass C.Floor Because of the glass is place in the most vulnerable position and it’s fragile. What can make it fall ? A. Seismic shake B. Wind C. Someone hit the Table D. all above All above are HazardIt can cause the vulnerable object damage. But sometime the vulnerably object might become escalate to the exposure example the glass fall to computer notebook Then Notebook had broke , file loss, job loss.
- 34. = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability 1 Landslide 1 Cars = 1 x 1 = 1=Specific Risk Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability When you describe the variable if not found, Do not take “0” , Just not define is enough. Is the amount or number of estimated numerical losses Number of injured Property damage That is the result of natural phenomena. Total Risk = (Elements at Risk)*(Specific Risk) 1 Landslide1 Cars = 3x1x1 = 3 Let’s say, the first car is 4WD. It can escape in time. Let’s say, the second car have first class insurance. Let’s say, the second car is an armored car.Elements of Capacity Armored car
- 35. VulnerabilityIn the context of environmental and disaster management The characteristics determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards. https://www.preventionweb.net/risk/vulnerability
- 36. ExposureIn the context of environmental and disaster management is defined as “the situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other tangible human assets located in hazard-prone areas”. As stated in the UNISDR glossary, “measures of exposure can include the number of people or types of assets in an area. These can be combined with the specific vulnerability and capacity of the exposed elements to any particular hazard to estimate the quantitative risks associated with that hazard in the area of interest”. http://www.un-spider.org/risks-and-disasters/disaster-risk-management
- 37. Coping CapacityIn the context of environmental and disaster management refers to all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, organization or society to manage and reduce disaster risks and strengthen resilience. https://www.preventionweb.net/risk/vulnerability
- 38. What is the Hazard in the picture?Assess risk in this picture What is the vulnerability in the picture? 7 student in flood Shoe and sock might be wet. What is the Exposure in the picture? Variable Detail / score Lack of capacity Hazard Flood 1 Exposure Vulnerability StudentA 1 StudentB 1 StudentC 1 StudentD 1 StudentE 1 StudentF 1 StudentG 1 electric shock 1 Fence fall down 1 Because of These 7 persons are capable to climb the fence - - - - - - - Lack of drainage Lack of circuit check Lack of strength Risk = Hazard&Exposure1/3 × Vulnerability1/3 x Lack of coping capacity1/3 Risk = 31/3 x 71/3 x 31/3 = 1.44 x 1.91 x 1.44 = 3.96
- 40. Survey Survey team : Use Anemometer measure Air velocity to find the strongest wind point in each zone. Then evaluate the effect and disaster risk assessment Evaluate Data and Information team : Receive data from survey team to evaluate the most affected zone and create the guideline to coping with disaster Mission
- 41. A B C D E F 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A1 B1 C1 A2 B2 C2 A3 B3 C3 D1 E1 F1 D2 E2 F2 D3 E3 F3 A4 B4 C4 D4 A5 B5 C5 D5 A6 B6 C6 D6 A7 B7 C7 A8 B8 C8 Distribute survey The Grid overlay is used to make sure that you didn’t forget any place to survey. It’s easy to share data when many people work together. - Set up group for 4 group - Choose team member 3-5 person a group then divide responsibilities Today you have to take role-play You are the policy maker team and operation team who have the authority to reduce the risk from storm surge in Thammasart Tha-phrachan University
- 42. In-class Activity (30 mins) You have to Evaluate Storm Surge risk. The storm might hit Bangkhuntian bay with 155 km/h wind speed There will be affected to Phranakorn district of Bangkok. http://www.hep.caltech.edu/~piti/bkk_height/ Information for decision making The elevation from the sea level of Bangkok Hazard is flood and wind- sheared. You have to survey what is exposure, vulnerability and capacity to create the guideline for the first 24 hrs emergency preparedness.
- 44. Survey Team Task - Search Mean sea level of each building (if capable) - Compile Data Wind speed of each zone. Where is the strongest wind speed area? - Evaluate flood level (how many meters) - Assess Risk by consider the exposure, the vulnerability and capability Report your finding via Zello
- 45. Vulnerability Pink Post-it Capacity Green Post-it Hazard Shocking Pink Post-it Exposure Orange Post-it Data and Information team have to Evaluate the data by Risk = hazard(h) x 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(v) x Exposure(e) capacity(C)
- 46. Data and Information team Task • How many risk of each grid • Which grid is the most risk? • What is the guideline to reduce risk ? Propose the guideline to Coping with Storm Surge to the president of Thammasart Tha-Prachan.
- 47. How to reduce risk? Propose the guideline to Coping with Storm Surge to the president of Thammasart Tha-Prachan. Conclude your information from survey and evaluation 30 mins
- 51. (Comfort,2007) การรู้คิด (cognition) ต้องรู้ว่ากลไกของปรากฏการณ์ที่เกิดขึ้นคืออะไร ภัย ความ เสี่ยง แล้วและสิ่งที่ต้องเพื่อให้เกิดความปลอดภัยคืออะไร บางคนยังสังเกตไม่เห็นความเปราะบาง บางคนยังแยกระหว่างภัยกับความเปราะบางไม่ได้ บางคนยังไม่ทราบถึงสิ่งที่จะเกิดขึ้น การสื่อสาร (communication) การประสาน (coordination) การควบคุม (control) - ต้องติดตามข้อมูลและแปลผลได้ว่า จะต้องจัดการตัวเองยังไง - ต้องสื่อสารกับคนอื่นได้ว่า จะต้อง จัดการอะไรร่วมกันอย่างไรบ้าง - ไม่สามารถแปลผลจากข้อมูลที่ รับมาได้ว่าควรจะต้องทาอะไร - ไม่สามารถใช้เครื่องมือสื่อสารได้ - ไม่กล้าสื่อสาร - สื่อสารไม่เป็น ต้องประสานงานกัน รู้ว่าใครต้องประสานงานกับใครร่วมกันทา ให้สิ่งที่ต้องจัดการร่วมกัน - ขาดผู้นา ขาดคนกลางระหว่างกลุ่ม - ขาดข้อตกลงระหว่างกลุ่มในการจัดการข้อมูล (ปกติเค้าจะทาข้อตกลงกันล่วงหน้าก่อนเกิดเหตุ) การลงมือควบคุมภัยไม่ให้เกิดขึ้น หรือจัดการให้ มันเกิดขึ้นในระดับที่รุนแรงน้อยที่สุด - ไม่เกิดข้อมูลการประเมินความเสี่ยง - ไม่เกิดข้อมูลการคาดการณ์ภัยที่จะเกิดขึ้น เช่น ทิศทางน้า ระดับน้า ความเร็วลม ความเสียหายที่จะตามมา - ไม่เกิดนโยบายที่มองภาพรวมทั่วทั้งพื้นที่ในการรับมือกับภัยพิบัติ เช่น การทาแนวป้องกันน้าเข้าจากด้านนนอก ปกป้องอาคารด้วยการสูบน้าออกจากด้านใน