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Wind Resource Mapping Project for Nepal (ESMAP)- Inception Workshop

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Kushal Gurung

The document presents a technical proposal and working plan for a wind resource mapping project in Nepal. It outlines 3 phases: 1) preliminary mesoscale modeling and site identification, 2) a ground measurement campaign, and 3) production of a validated wind atlas. The proposal describes the objectives, team members, methodology, deliverables, and work plan for each phase of the project. The overall goal is to improve understanding of Nepal's wind energy potential through detailed wind resource mapping.

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Wind Resource Mapping Project for Nepal Inception Workshop – Kathmandu, 24 March 2015 Technical Proposal and Working Plan Presented by Jens Carsten Hansen, DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Kushal Gurung, WindPower Nepal Pvt. Ltd. World Bank Selection #1163825 Renewable Energy Resource Mapping: Wind (Phase 1-3) Nepal Project ID: P150328
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 2
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Context – Terms of Reference 3
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Terms of Reference 4 From TOR (point 8) The project development objective is to improve the quality of available information on RE resources in Nepal by developing resource maps for priority renewables, starting with wind power. These resource maps will (i) provide a detailed assessment and geospatial planning framework for RE resources in Nepal, (ii) increase the awareness and knowledge of the Government and other energy sector players on RE potential, and (iii) encourage new public and private sector investments in RE projects. This project intends to carry out a comprehensive analysis of wind resources in Nepal by • production of a high quality, validated wind atlas, summary report, GIS layers and associated datasets • using the latest methodologies • making all outputs publicly available to facilitate future re-analysis.
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 5
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The “Vendor” consortium – DTU Wind Energy(Lead) Technical University of Denmark (DTU) 7000 students, 1700 scientific staff and 1200 PhD students Founded in 1829 by Hans Christian Ørsted www.dtu.dk DTU Wind Energy, 250 employee’s, earlier part of Risø National Laboratory Established 1956 with Niels Bohr as key figure www.vindenergi.dtu.dk 6
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark DTU Wind Energy – a mission-oriented university department 7 Wind Energy Division Materials Research Division Composites and Materials Mechanics Materials Science and Characterisation Fluid Mechanics Test and Measurements Wind Turbines Structures Aerolastic Design Meteorology Wind Energy Systems Fluid Dynamics Composite Mechanics > 240 staff members Including 150 academic staff members and 50 PhD students
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The “Vendor” consortium – 3E 3E is an independent, international services and consultancy company (www.3e.eu). The company provides expert guidance in renewable energy and energy efficiency developments and is active in designing intelligent energy strategies. As the missing link between research and market, 3E provides top-notch technical, scientific and economic insight to its clients at all project phases. 3E aims to guide clients towards high standard developments that are energetically, financially and environmentally optimised. Established in 1999 as a spin-off of IMEC focusing on photovoltaic projects and strategy, 3E is now an expert partner for projects in all renewables (wind, solar, biomass and small hydro) and energy efficiency. It performs large scale due diligence studies, feasibility studies, full guidance in project development, but also designs sustainable buildings and urban areas, assesses energy performance, and, in addition to developing monitoring and operational tools, provides guidance to industries, governmental authorities and institutions. 3E feeds its expertise and projects by investing wholeheartedly in innovation. 3E participates in numerous research and developments consortiums and is still furthering its unique relation with IMEC by collaborating on high level PV and energy efficiency research. The company's team of over 100 energy experts operates from headquarters in Brussels. 8
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The “Vendor” consortium – WindPower Nepal • WindPower Nepal (WPN) is a multi-disciplinary firm providing consulting, training, advisory, project development and management services for low carbon solutions • Started in June 2012, but already have strong market presence in wind energy in Nepal • Major areas of focus are renewable energy and climate change. • Build, (own) and operate minigrid systems, using mainly wind and solar for captive generation and rural electrification • Membership – Global Wind Energy Council – Alternative Energy Promotion Center (prequalified company for wind projects) – Energy Development Council, an independent umbrella organization of Energy Developers, Energy Associations and Energy Financiers from both private and government sectors
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 10
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Why a wind atlas – 1 The wind turbine – air mass and speed Power curve 3 MW wind turbine Nominal revolutions: 16 rpm Weight Nacelle: 70 t Rotor: 41 t Towers: 100 m - 250 t Rotor Diameter: 90 m Area swept: 6,362 m2 Football field: 68 x 105 = 7,140 m2 Mass flux at wind speed of 10 m/s: 10 x 6362 x 1.225 = 77935 kg/s at air density of 1.225 kg/m3
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Why a wind atlas - 2 Wind provides the income in cost-benefit  Investment costs  Operation and maintenance costs  Electricity production ~ Wind resources  Turbine lifetime  Discount rate  Environmental benefits Modelling is necessary and it must be good Energy in wind P = ½U3 [W/ m2] Wind speed U [m/s] 10% error on speed 30% error on energy
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 13
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark What is a wind atlas? A wind atlas is a generalized set of information about the wind at a given location. Much more than a simple map containing mean wind speed (or kinetic energy flux) and direction information for a region of the Earth.
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The Wind Atlas Method the observational wind atlas method and the microscale flow model, WAsP, were conceived in the 80’s for the European Wind Atlas the numerical wind atlas and mesoscale model techniques for larger domains, mesoscale effects and long- term wind climates came in the 90’s state-of-the-art wind resource assessment and planning is a combination of microscale and mesoscale modelling verified against measurements
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Numerical Wind Atlas Downscaling from global reanalysis data + verification G Global Local Global wind resources Regional Mesoscale modelling KAMM/WAsP, MM5, WRF, etc. Microscale modelling (WAsP, other linear/nonlinear models) 40-200km 2-5km ~ 1-10 m
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Input data to drive the mesoscale modelling • Reanalysis is a scientific method for developing a comprehensive record of how weather and climate are changing over time. • In an atmospheric reanalysis observations and a numerical model that simulates one or more aspects of the atmosphere behavior are combined objectively to generate a synthesized estimate of the state of the system. • A reanalysis typically extends over several decades or longer, and covers the entire globe from the Earth’s surface to well above the stratosphere. • More information: – http://reanalyses.org/ – https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/ 17 14/08/2015
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Mean wind speed (1979-2010) at 100 m above surface level derived from CFSR, ERA-I, and MERRA reanalysis datasets Figures hows the large scale wind forcing; Nepal is a true example of where we expect that the mesoscale modelling should reveal a lot of detail at the regional and local scales. 18 14/08/2015
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark NEPAL SWERA SWERA The Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) • funded by Global Environment Facility (GEF) • managed United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP – DTIE ) Nepalese partners • Collaboration with many country partners worldwide In Nepal that included AEPC. Staff received WAsP training.
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark20 14/08/2015 SWERA - coordinated and funded by UNEP and GEF Mesoscale wind resource map using the KAMM/WASP methodology
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark What is the difference between KAMM and WRF KAMM (1st wind atlas) • “steady-state” simulations from 100+ wind situations (sets of initial conditions) • each initialized with a single vertical representation of the atmosphere • lower boundary conditions: uniform land and sea temperatures WRF (WASA phase 2) • “sequential” simulation that provides time-series for each grid point in the domain • initialized with a 3 dimensional state of the atmosphere • lower boundary conditions: interactive land + time- varying sea surface temperatures
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Mesoscale modelling – inner domain terrain elevation and surface roughness, z0 22 Text to be added
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark23 Boxed wind roses derived from observation, unboxed derived from KAMM/WAsP. Mesoscale modelling......only “half the story” Mesoscale modelling and measurement verification... ...makes a wind resource assessment http://www.wasaproject.info/
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Siting considerations for met masts to be used for verification of mesoscale modelling • Spaced and spread fairly equally across the project area • Where possible at a reasonable distance from complex terrain, i.e. terrain slopes larger than 30°- ideally further than ~10km away • At least one mesoscale grid cell diagonally (~ 5-7km) away from the coast to ensure 100% land within grid cell • Areas that are fairly uniform within a single mesoscale grid cell in terms of roughness and topography to ensure grid cell overlay - take two grid lengths (5- 10km) • Sites should cover the spectrum of different climatological regions - coastal, inland low lying, inland high lying (latter are areas that prove challenging to models). Ideally sites that are not too far away from each other but are situated in different climatological regions. • Sites are needed on interesting large scale terrain that has significant mesoscale forcing • Some sites should be in areas of reasonably good wind climate according to mesoscale maps 24 14 August, 2015
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Validation: • Assessment of measurement stations includes – Wind measuring system design and data acquisition specification, whether instrumentation is of Class 1 type, the highest standard and whether the wind measurement system and equipment comply with IEC 61400-12-4. – Site characteristic and complexity – Instrument calibration and recalibration – Operation, security and data collection record, whether operators are members of MEASNET (measnet.com) and accredited by ISO/IEC 17025 – Quality check through analyses of logged data. 25
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark High quality measurement 26 http://www.measnet.com/
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark27 Rodeo : Risø Online Database of Environmental Observations
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark28
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark29
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Microscale modelling 30 www.wasp.dk
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Comparison of numerical wind atlas (NWA) and observation wind atlas (OWA) generalized wind climate calculates for the measurement sites at 50 m in Mali for standard conditions, flat terrain of homogeneous 3 cm roughness length. 31 NWA OWA
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark32 Microscale modelling Resource is discovered www.wasp.dk
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark33
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark34 Microscale modelling Resource is discovered BUT CAREFUL: High resolution does not mean accurate Verification component essential For bankability, a wind farm project needs a measurement campaign and needs due diligence studies
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Annual mean wind speed at 100m at 250 m resolution 35
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Application of the wind climate data 36
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Looking ahead to planning Check out these recent presentations: http://www.windaba.co.za/wp- content/uploads/2013/10/Niels-Mortensen- and-Eugene-Mabile-A-brief-recap-of-WASA- as-a-foundation-for-the-wind-SEA.pdf www.windaba.co.za/wp- content/uploads/2013/10/Cornelius-van-der- Westhuizen-Methodolody-and-initial-results- of-the-DEA-wind-SEA.pdf 37
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 38
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Phase 1 Brief: A preliminary mesoscale modelling study to determine the wind climate for the country and identify the most important features and challenges, and to identify the most relevant candidate measurement sites for Phase 2. Content: • Inception mission • Mesoscale modelling and preliminary validation • Interim wind modelling outputs • Site identification analysis and reporting • Phase 1 workshop 39
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Phase 2 Brief: A ground based measurement campaign using high quality measurement devices at relevant heights for validation and benchmarking purposes. Content: • Selection of measurement sites • Mast and instruments planning, procurement and installation • Installation Report • Operation, maintenance and inspections • Data collection, monitoring, • Site Resource Reports incl site suitability (12months and 24months) • Phase 2 Training event 40
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Phase 3 Brief: Production of validated wind resource atlas: Prepare a validated Wind Atlas report that describes the final outputs, methodology and process, and includes provision of the final GIS data. Content: • Full validation and revision of mesoscale modelling • Final Validated Wind Atlas for Nepal • Preparation and transfer of the final wind resource database • Nationwide microscale modelling • Phase 3 workshop 41
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 42
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark List of deliverables 43 D1.1 Scoping and project preparation, including participation in the Inception Meeting; D1.2 Mesoscale modeling, including delivery of an interim Mesoscale Wind Modeling Report; D1.3 Preparation and transfer of the interim wind resource database as specified in Annex A, and relevant GIS layers on a suitable storage medium; D1.4 Site identification analysis, including delivery of a Candidate Site Identification Report; D1.5 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 1 Workshop, including the training program. D2.1 Advice on site selection, including visits to shortlisted sites; D2.2 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 2 Implementation Plan, including recommendations on proposed sub-contractors and associated costs; D2.3 Preparation, implementation and supervision of the Phase 2 wind measurement campaign, including capacity building and regular delivery of specified datasets; D2.4 Preparation and delivery of Site Installation Reports for each site; D2.5 Preparation and delivery of Site Resource Reports after 12 and 24 months of data. D2.6 Participation in Phase 2 Training event on GIS, geospatial planning, and advanced wind data analysis. D3.1 Mesoscale wind modeling (incorporating revisions to the original model), including delivery of a final Mesoscale Wind Modeling Report; D3.2 Mesoscale model validation, including delivery of a Mesoscale Model Validation Report; D3.3 Microscale wind modeling, including delivery of a Microscale Wind Modeling Report; D3.4 Preparation and transfer of the final wind resource database as specified in Annex A, and relevant GIS layers on a suitable storage medium; D3.5 Preparation and delivery of the final Wind Atlas and associated outputs; D3.6 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 3 Workshop, including the training program.
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Capacity Building and Training Events D1.5 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 1 Workshop, including the training program D2.3 Preparation, implementation and supervision of the Phase 2 wind measurement campaign, including capacity building and regular delivery of specified datasets; D2.6 Participation in Phase 2 Training event on GIS, geospatial planning, and advanced wind data analysis. D3.6 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 3 Workshop, including the training program. The trainings program will be tailored to the needs of the sector to aim at the difference levels of training needed, such as – general capacity building program regarding the project activities, outputs and how to use them, – more in depth & hands on training for specific stakeholders such as the meteorological institutes, private experts The training approach will be mainly on-the-job-training supplemented with presentations at workshops. The main training material will contain details of the mesoscale modelling methodologies, microscaling, energy yield calculation and project development. 44
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 45
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Work Plan 46
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan – WB, Client and Task Force 47
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark SPECIFIC INPUTS TO BE PROVIDED BY THE WORLD BANK (TOR) 48 • WB and the Client will provide all necessary background information to the Vendor and respond to all inquiries as quickly as is practicable. • Requested geospatial (GIS) data, if freely available. • The WB and/or the Client will provide contact details of all stakeholders that the Vendor is required to liaise with where necessary and will facilitate interaction with local agencies or other organizations for obtaining historical wind data and documentation for any previous ground-based measurements. • Central data repository and geo-server for the long-term storage and access of all data and GIS layers generated under this project. • Data and file repository and transfer service (Box), the security of which is the responsibility of the WB. • Advice on the country security situation, including any relevant briefings, advice or limitations available to WB staff prior to any mission travel. • Guidance on the accepted political boundaries between countries.
DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Task Force – discussion of what do we hope to get 49 • The End User the will apply the results of the project • Organisation of the Task Force? – Focus/Contact person for TF and one for each TF member • Involvement in capacity building activities - staff how many, who • Involvement in Site selection for measurements • Any Site availability of TF members? – inventory with some specifications • Any experience with wind measurements and wind resource studies from previous projects? – Reports, specifications, data, digital maps • Security – any experience and recommendations on how to arrange? • Permits in general – A process description in writing – authority, requirements, where to send what, who controls the process, how many months will it take, any cost, any experience, any recommendations

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Wind Resource Mapping Project for Nepal (ESMAP)- Inception Workshop

  • 1. Wind Resource Mapping Project for Nepal Inception Workshop – Kathmandu, 24 March 2015 Technical Proposal and Working Plan Presented by Jens Carsten Hansen, DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Kushal Gurung, WindPower Nepal Pvt. Ltd. World Bank Selection #1163825 Renewable Energy Resource Mapping: Wind (Phase 1-3) Nepal Project ID: P150328
  • 2. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 2
  • 3. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Context – Terms of Reference 3
  • 4. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Terms of Reference 4 From TOR (point 8) The project development objective is to improve the quality of available information on RE resources in Nepal by developing resource maps for priority renewables, starting with wind power. These resource maps will (i) provide a detailed assessment and geospatial planning framework for RE resources in Nepal, (ii) increase the awareness and knowledge of the Government and other energy sector players on RE potential, and (iii) encourage new public and private sector investments in RE projects. This project intends to carry out a comprehensive analysis of wind resources in Nepal by • production of a high quality, validated wind atlas, summary report, GIS layers and associated datasets • using the latest methodologies • making all outputs publicly available to facilitate future re-analysis.
  • 5. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 5
  • 6. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The “Vendor” consortium – DTU Wind Energy(Lead) Technical University of Denmark (DTU) 7000 students, 1700 scientific staff and 1200 PhD students Founded in 1829 by Hans Christian Ørsted www.dtu.dk DTU Wind Energy, 250 employee’s, earlier part of Risø National Laboratory Established 1956 with Niels Bohr as key figure www.vindenergi.dtu.dk 6
  • 7. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark DTU Wind Energy – a mission-oriented university department 7 Wind Energy Division Materials Research Division Composites and Materials Mechanics Materials Science and Characterisation Fluid Mechanics Test and Measurements Wind Turbines Structures Aerolastic Design Meteorology Wind Energy Systems Fluid Dynamics Composite Mechanics > 240 staff members Including 150 academic staff members and 50 PhD students
  • 8. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The “Vendor” consortium – 3E 3E is an independent, international services and consultancy company (www.3e.eu). The company provides expert guidance in renewable energy and energy efficiency developments and is active in designing intelligent energy strategies. As the missing link between research and market, 3E provides top-notch technical, scientific and economic insight to its clients at all project phases. 3E aims to guide clients towards high standard developments that are energetically, financially and environmentally optimised. Established in 1999 as a spin-off of IMEC focusing on photovoltaic projects and strategy, 3E is now an expert partner for projects in all renewables (wind, solar, biomass and small hydro) and energy efficiency. It performs large scale due diligence studies, feasibility studies, full guidance in project development, but also designs sustainable buildings and urban areas, assesses energy performance, and, in addition to developing monitoring and operational tools, provides guidance to industries, governmental authorities and institutions. 3E feeds its expertise and projects by investing wholeheartedly in innovation. 3E participates in numerous research and developments consortiums and is still furthering its unique relation with IMEC by collaborating on high level PV and energy efficiency research. The company's team of over 100 energy experts operates from headquarters in Brussels. 8
  • 9. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The “Vendor” consortium – WindPower Nepal • WindPower Nepal (WPN) is a multi-disciplinary firm providing consulting, training, advisory, project development and management services for low carbon solutions • Started in June 2012, but already have strong market presence in wind energy in Nepal • Major areas of focus are renewable energy and climate change. • Build, (own) and operate minigrid systems, using mainly wind and solar for captive generation and rural electrification • Membership – Global Wind Energy Council – Alternative Energy Promotion Center (prequalified company for wind projects) – Energy Development Council, an independent umbrella organization of Energy Developers, Energy Associations and Energy Financiers from both private and government sectors
  • 10. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 10
  • 11. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Why a wind atlas – 1 The wind turbine – air mass and speed Power curve 3 MW wind turbine Nominal revolutions: 16 rpm Weight Nacelle: 70 t Rotor: 41 t Towers: 100 m - 250 t Rotor Diameter: 90 m Area swept: 6,362 m2 Football field: 68 x 105 = 7,140 m2 Mass flux at wind speed of 10 m/s: 10 x 6362 x 1.225 = 77935 kg/s at air density of 1.225 kg/m3
  • 12. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Why a wind atlas - 2 Wind provides the income in cost-benefit  Investment costs  Operation and maintenance costs  Electricity production ~ Wind resources  Turbine lifetime  Discount rate  Environmental benefits Modelling is necessary and it must be good Energy in wind P = ½U3 [W/ m2] Wind speed U [m/s] 10% error on speed 30% error on energy
  • 13. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 13
  • 14. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark What is a wind atlas? A wind atlas is a generalized set of information about the wind at a given location. Much more than a simple map containing mean wind speed (or kinetic energy flux) and direction information for a region of the Earth.
  • 15. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark The Wind Atlas Method the observational wind atlas method and the microscale flow model, WAsP, were conceived in the 80’s for the European Wind Atlas the numerical wind atlas and mesoscale model techniques for larger domains, mesoscale effects and long- term wind climates came in the 90’s state-of-the-art wind resource assessment and planning is a combination of microscale and mesoscale modelling verified against measurements
  • 16. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Numerical Wind Atlas Downscaling from global reanalysis data + verification G Global Local Global wind resources Regional Mesoscale modelling KAMM/WAsP, MM5, WRF, etc. Microscale modelling (WAsP, other linear/nonlinear models) 40-200km 2-5km ~ 1-10 m
  • 17. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Input data to drive the mesoscale modelling • Reanalysis is a scientific method for developing a comprehensive record of how weather and climate are changing over time. • In an atmospheric reanalysis observations and a numerical model that simulates one or more aspects of the atmosphere behavior are combined objectively to generate a synthesized estimate of the state of the system. • A reanalysis typically extends over several decades or longer, and covers the entire globe from the Earth’s surface to well above the stratosphere. • More information: – http://reanalyses.org/ – https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/ 17 14/08/2015
  • 18. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Mean wind speed (1979-2010) at 100 m above surface level derived from CFSR, ERA-I, and MERRA reanalysis datasets Figures hows the large scale wind forcing; Nepal is a true example of where we expect that the mesoscale modelling should reveal a lot of detail at the regional and local scales. 18 14/08/2015
  • 19. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark NEPAL SWERA SWERA The Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) • funded by Global Environment Facility (GEF) • managed United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP – DTIE ) Nepalese partners • Collaboration with many country partners worldwide In Nepal that included AEPC. Staff received WAsP training.
  • 20. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark20 14/08/2015 SWERA - coordinated and funded by UNEP and GEF Mesoscale wind resource map using the KAMM/WASP methodology
  • 21. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark What is the difference between KAMM and WRF KAMM (1st wind atlas) • “steady-state” simulations from 100+ wind situations (sets of initial conditions) • each initialized with a single vertical representation of the atmosphere • lower boundary conditions: uniform land and sea temperatures WRF (WASA phase 2) • “sequential” simulation that provides time-series for each grid point in the domain • initialized with a 3 dimensional state of the atmosphere • lower boundary conditions: interactive land + time- varying sea surface temperatures
  • 22. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Mesoscale modelling – inner domain terrain elevation and surface roughness, z0 22 Text to be added
  • 23. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark23 Boxed wind roses derived from observation, unboxed derived from KAMM/WAsP. Mesoscale modelling......only “half the story” Mesoscale modelling and measurement verification... ...makes a wind resource assessment http://www.wasaproject.info/
  • 24. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Siting considerations for met masts to be used for verification of mesoscale modelling • Spaced and spread fairly equally across the project area • Where possible at a reasonable distance from complex terrain, i.e. terrain slopes larger than 30°- ideally further than ~10km away • At least one mesoscale grid cell diagonally (~ 5-7km) away from the coast to ensure 100% land within grid cell • Areas that are fairly uniform within a single mesoscale grid cell in terms of roughness and topography to ensure grid cell overlay - take two grid lengths (5- 10km) • Sites should cover the spectrum of different climatological regions - coastal, inland low lying, inland high lying (latter are areas that prove challenging to models). Ideally sites that are not too far away from each other but are situated in different climatological regions. • Sites are needed on interesting large scale terrain that has significant mesoscale forcing • Some sites should be in areas of reasonably good wind climate according to mesoscale maps 24 14 August, 2015
  • 25. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Validation: • Assessment of measurement stations includes – Wind measuring system design and data acquisition specification, whether instrumentation is of Class 1 type, the highest standard and whether the wind measurement system and equipment comply with IEC 61400-12-4. – Site characteristic and complexity – Instrument calibration and recalibration – Operation, security and data collection record, whether operators are members of MEASNET (measnet.com) and accredited by ISO/IEC 17025 – Quality check through analyses of logged data. 25
  • 26. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark High quality measurement 26 http://www.measnet.com/
  • 27. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark27 Rodeo : Risø Online Database of Environmental Observations
  • 28. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark28
  • 29. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark29
  • 30. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Microscale modelling 30 www.wasp.dk
  • 31. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Comparison of numerical wind atlas (NWA) and observation wind atlas (OWA) generalized wind climate calculates for the measurement sites at 50 m in Mali for standard conditions, flat terrain of homogeneous 3 cm roughness length. 31 NWA OWA
  • 32. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark32 Microscale modelling Resource is discovered www.wasp.dk
  • 33. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark33
  • 34. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark34 Microscale modelling Resource is discovered BUT CAREFUL: High resolution does not mean accurate Verification component essential For bankability, a wind farm project needs a measurement campaign and needs due diligence studies
  • 35. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Annual mean wind speed at 100m at 250 m resolution 35
  • 36. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Application of the wind climate data 36
  • 37. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Looking ahead to planning Check out these recent presentations: http://www.windaba.co.za/wp- content/uploads/2013/10/Niels-Mortensen- and-Eugene-Mabile-A-brief-recap-of-WASA- as-a-foundation-for-the-wind-SEA.pdf www.windaba.co.za/wp- content/uploads/2013/10/Cornelius-van-der- Westhuizen-Methodolody-and-initial-results- of-the-DEA-wind-SEA.pdf 37
  • 38. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 38
  • 39. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Phase 1 Brief: A preliminary mesoscale modelling study to determine the wind climate for the country and identify the most important features and challenges, and to identify the most relevant candidate measurement sites for Phase 2. Content: • Inception mission • Mesoscale modelling and preliminary validation • Interim wind modelling outputs • Site identification analysis and reporting • Phase 1 workshop 39
  • 40. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Phase 2 Brief: A ground based measurement campaign using high quality measurement devices at relevant heights for validation and benchmarking purposes. Content: • Selection of measurement sites • Mast and instruments planning, procurement and installation • Installation Report • Operation, maintenance and inspections • Data collection, monitoring, • Site Resource Reports incl site suitability (12months and 24months) • Phase 2 Training event 40
  • 41. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Technical proposal Phase 3 Brief: Production of validated wind resource atlas: Prepare a validated Wind Atlas report that describes the final outputs, methodology and process, and includes provision of the final GIS data. Content: • Full validation and revision of mesoscale modelling • Final Validated Wind Atlas for Nepal • Preparation and transfer of the final wind resource database • Nationwide microscale modelling • Phase 3 workshop 41
  • 42. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 42
  • 43. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark List of deliverables 43 D1.1 Scoping and project preparation, including participation in the Inception Meeting; D1.2 Mesoscale modeling, including delivery of an interim Mesoscale Wind Modeling Report; D1.3 Preparation and transfer of the interim wind resource database as specified in Annex A, and relevant GIS layers on a suitable storage medium; D1.4 Site identification analysis, including delivery of a Candidate Site Identification Report; D1.5 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 1 Workshop, including the training program. D2.1 Advice on site selection, including visits to shortlisted sites; D2.2 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 2 Implementation Plan, including recommendations on proposed sub-contractors and associated costs; D2.3 Preparation, implementation and supervision of the Phase 2 wind measurement campaign, including capacity building and regular delivery of specified datasets; D2.4 Preparation and delivery of Site Installation Reports for each site; D2.5 Preparation and delivery of Site Resource Reports after 12 and 24 months of data. D2.6 Participation in Phase 2 Training event on GIS, geospatial planning, and advanced wind data analysis. D3.1 Mesoscale wind modeling (incorporating revisions to the original model), including delivery of a final Mesoscale Wind Modeling Report; D3.2 Mesoscale model validation, including delivery of a Mesoscale Model Validation Report; D3.3 Microscale wind modeling, including delivery of a Microscale Wind Modeling Report; D3.4 Preparation and transfer of the final wind resource database as specified in Annex A, and relevant GIS layers on a suitable storage medium; D3.5 Preparation and delivery of the final Wind Atlas and associated outputs; D3.6 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 3 Workshop, including the training program.
  • 44. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Capacity Building and Training Events D1.5 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 1 Workshop, including the training program D2.3 Preparation, implementation and supervision of the Phase 2 wind measurement campaign, including capacity building and regular delivery of specified datasets; D2.6 Participation in Phase 2 Training event on GIS, geospatial planning, and advanced wind data analysis. D3.6 Preparation and delivery of the Phase 3 Workshop, including the training program. The trainings program will be tailored to the needs of the sector to aim at the difference levels of training needed, such as – general capacity building program regarding the project activities, outputs and how to use them, – more in depth & hands on training for specific stakeholders such as the meteorological institutes, private experts The training approach will be mainly on-the-job-training supplemented with presentations at workshops. The main training material will contain details of the mesoscale modelling methodologies, microscaling, energy yield calculation and project development. 44
  • 45. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan 45
  • 46. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Work Plan 46
  • 47. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Outline Introduction to – Objectives – The team – Why a wind atlas – Approach and methodology – Project phases – Tasks and deliverables – Work plan – WB, Client and Task Force 47
  • 48. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark SPECIFIC INPUTS TO BE PROVIDED BY THE WORLD BANK (TOR) 48 • WB and the Client will provide all necessary background information to the Vendor and respond to all inquiries as quickly as is practicable. • Requested geospatial (GIS) data, if freely available. • The WB and/or the Client will provide contact details of all stakeholders that the Vendor is required to liaise with where necessary and will facilitate interaction with local agencies or other organizations for obtaining historical wind data and documentation for any previous ground-based measurements. • Central data repository and geo-server for the long-term storage and access of all data and GIS layers generated under this project. • Data and file repository and transfer service (Box), the security of which is the responsibility of the WB. • Advice on the country security situation, including any relevant briefings, advice or limitations available to WB staff prior to any mission travel. • Guidance on the accepted political boundaries between countries.
  • 49. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Task Force – discussion of what do we hope to get 49 • The End User the will apply the results of the project • Organisation of the Task Force? – Focus/Contact person for TF and one for each TF member • Involvement in capacity building activities - staff how many, who • Involvement in Site selection for measurements • Any Site availability of TF members? – inventory with some specifications • Any experience with wind measurements and wind resource studies from previous projects? – Reports, specifications, data, digital maps • Security – any experience and recommendations on how to arrange? • Permits in general – A process description in writing – authority, requirements, where to send what, who controls the process, how many months will it take, any cost, any experience, any recommendations